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Gravitational wave (GW) galaxy lens reconstruction is a crucial step for many GW lensing science applications. However, dark siren GW lensing (i.e. lensed GW without observed electromagnetic (EM) counterpart) suffers from similarity transformation degeneracy and mass-sheet degeneracy. We review these two degeneracies and discuss their implications on GW-based lens reconstruction and two well-known GW lensing science cases: the Hubble constant measurement and test for modified GW propagation. Building upon previous works, our conclusions are:1) GWs can only infer the scale-free lens mass model parameters, the dimensionless source position, the GW luminosity distance and the time delay scaling (a combination of Einstein radius, lens redshift, and cosmology).2) Lens reconstruction (of singular isothermal ellipsoid lens) with only two GW signals is unlikely to yield a complete lens model, while four (three) signals can measure all the above parameters accurately (with large uncertainties).3) The similarity transformation degeneracy causes the lens redshift/Einstein radius/cosmology to be degenerate in dark siren measurements. Breaking the degeneracy can be achieved by supplementing the GWs with EM observation of lens redshifts/Einstein radius (source redshift is not required).4) The mass-sheet degeneracy causes the GW luminosity distance to be entirely degenerate with a constant mass sheet.5) Contrary to expectation, the Hubble constant is degenerate with the mass-sheet even when supplemented with lens reconstruction/redshift/Einstein radius and can only be lifted with lens galaxy velocity dispersion measurement, while modified GW propagation test discussed in prior literature is unaffected by the degeneracy. These properties highlight the need for GW observations to be supplemented by EM observations, which could become accessible through a lens archival search or a rapid EM follow-up.

GWnext 2024 was a meeting held in the Kavli Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics at Peking University in March $4^\text{th} - 8^\text{th}$, 2024. In the meeting researchers at different career stages -- with a particular focus on early career scientists -- working on the different aspects of gravitational wave (GW) astronomy gathered to discuss the current status as well as prospects of the field. The meeting was divided into three core sessions: Astrophysics, GW Theory, and Detection. Each session consisted of introductory talks and extended discussion sessions. Moreover, there was a poster session where students could present their results. In this paper, we summarize the results presented during the meeting and present the most important outcomes.

The Bayesian evidence, crucial ingredient for model selection, is arguably the most important quantity in Bayesian data analysis: at the same time, however, it is also one of the most difficult to compute. In this paper we present a hierarchical method that leverages on a multivariate normalised approximant for the posterior probability density to infer the evidence for a model in a hierarchical fashion using a set of posterior samples drawn using an arbitrary sampling scheme., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, 1 table. Comments welcome

In this paper I show the equivalence, under appropriate assumptions, of two alternative methods to account for the presence of selection biases (also called selection effects) in population studies: one is to include the selection effects in the likelihood directly; the other follows the procedure of first inferring the observed distribution and then removing selection effects a posteriori. Moreover, I investigate a potential bias allegedly induced by the latter approach: I show that this procedure, if applied under the appropriate assumptions, does not produce the aforementioned bias., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, 1 table

Gaia BH3 is the first observed dormant black hole (BH) with a mass of $\approx{30}$ M$_\odot$ and represents the first confirmation that such massive BHs are associated with metal-poor stars. Here, we explore the isolated binary formation channel for Gaia BH3 focusing on the old and metal-poor stellar population of the Milky Way halo. We use our open-source population synthesis code SEVN to evolve $3.2 \times 10^8$ binaries exploring 16 sets of parameters. We find that systems like Gaia BH3 form preferentially from binaries initially composed of a massive star ($40-60$ M$_\odot$) and a low mass companion ($<1$ M$_\odot$) in a wide ($P>10^3$ days) and eccentric orbit ($e>0.6$). Such progenitors do not undergo any Roche-lobe overflow episode during their entire evolution, so that the final orbital properties of the BH-star system are essentially determined at the core collapse of the primary star. Low natal kicks ($\approx$ 10~km/s) significantly favour the formation of Gaia BH3-like systems, but high velocity kicks up to $\approx 220$ km/s are also allowed. We estimate the formation efficiency for Gaia BH3-like systems in old ($t>10$ Gyr) and metal-poor ($Z<0.01$) populations to be $4 \times 10^{-8}$ M$_\odot^{-1}$, representing $\approx 3\%$ of the whole simulated BH-star population. We expect up to $\sim 3000$ BH-star systems in the Galactic halo formed through isolated evolution, of which $\sim 100$ are compatible with Gaia BH3 alike. Gaia BH3-like systems represent a common product of isolated binary evolution at low metallicity ($Z<0.01$), but given the steep density profile of the Galactic halo we do not expect more than one in the halo at the observed distance of Gaia BH3. Considering the estimated formation efficiency for both the isolated and dynamical formation channel, we conclude that they are almost equally likely to explain the origin of Gaia BH3., Comment: Submitted to A&A, comments welcome

GW190521, the most massive binary black hole merger confidently detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration, is the first gravitational-wave observation of an intermediate-mass black hole. The signal was followed approximately 34 days later by flare ZTF19abanrhr, detected in AGN J124942.3+344929 by the Zwicky Transient Facility at the 78% spatial contour for GW190521s sky localization. Using the GWTC-2.1 data release, we find that the association between GW190521 and flare ZTF19abanrhr as its electromagnetic counterpart is preferred over a random coincidence of the two transients with a log Bayes factor of 8.6, corresponding to an odds ratio of $\sim$ 5400 to 1 for equal prior odds and $\sim$ 400 to 1 assuming an astrophysical prior odds of 1/13. Given the association, the multi-messenger signal allows for an estimation of the Hubble constant, finding $H_0 = 102^{+27}_{-25}\mathrm{\ km \ s^{-1} \ Mpc^{-1}}$ when solely analyzing GW190521 and $79.2^{+17.6}_{-9.6}\mathrm{\ km \ s^{-1} \ Mpc^{-1}}$ assuming prior information from the binary neutron star merger GW170817, both consistent with the existing literature., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures

We present a new observational test to identify massive black hole binaries in large multi-epoch spectroscopical catalogues and to probe the real nature of already proposed binary candidates. The test is tailored for binaries with separations large enough to allow each black hole to retain its own broad line region. In this limit the fast AGN variability typically observed over months cannot be associated to the much longer binary period, and it is assumed (as for the case of single black holes) to be the consequence of the evolution of the innermost regions of the two accretion discs. A simple analysis of the cross-correlation between different parts of individual broad emission lines can therefore identify the presence of two massive black holes whose continua vary independently of each other. Our analysis indicates that to be less affected by the noise in the spectra the broad lines should be divided in two close-to-equal-flux parts. This ensures that in the single massive black hole scenario the cross-correlation will always be high. With monitoring campaigns similar to those performed for reverberation mapping studies, on the other way, a binary can show any value of the cross-correlation and can therefore be distinguished from a standard AGN. The new test can be performed over timescales orders of magnitude shorter than the alternative tests already discussed in literature, and can be a powerful complement to the massive black hole binary search strategies already in place., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication on Astronomy & Astrophysics

We investigate the joint primary mass, mass ratio, and redshift observed distribution of astrophysical black holes using the gravitational wave events detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration and included in the third gravitational wave transient catalogue. We reconstruct this distribution using Bayesian non-parametric methods, which are data-driven models able to infer arbitrary probability densities under minimal mathematical assumptions. We find evidence for the evolution with redshift of both the primary mass and mass ratio distribution: our analysis shows the presence of two distinct sub-populations in the primary mass - redshift plane, with the lighter population, $\lesssim$ 20 $M_\odot$, disappearing at higher redshifts, $z > 0.4$. The mass ratio distribution shows no support for symmetric binaries. The observed population of coalescing binary black holes evolves with look-back time, suggesting a trend in metallicity with redshift and/or the presence of multiple, redshift-dependent formation channels., Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures

Strong lensing of gravitational waves can produce several detectable images as repeated events in the upcoming observing runs, which can be detected with the posterior overlap analysis (Bayes factor). The choice of the binary black hole population plays an important role in the analysis as two gravitational-wave events could be similar either because of lensing or astrophysical coincidence. In this study, we investigate the biases induced by different population models on the Bayes factor. We build up a mock catalogue of gravitational-wave events following a benchmark population and reconstruct it using both non-parametric and parametric methods. Using these reconstructions, we compute the Bayes factor for lensed pair events by utilizing both models and compare the results with a benchmark model. We show that the use of a non-parametric population model gives a smaller bias than parametric population models. Therefore, our study demonstrates the importance of choosing a sufficiently agnostic population model for strong lensing analyses., Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures

Galactic binary neutron stars (BNSs) are a unique laboratory to probe the evolution of BNSs and their progenitors. Here, we use a new version of the population synthesis code SEVN to evolve the population of Galactic BNSs, by modeling the spin up and down of pulsars self-consistently. We analyze the merger rate $\mathcal{R}_{\rm MW}$, orbital period $P_{\rm orb}$, eccentricity $e$, spin period $P$, and spin period derivative $\dot{P}$ of the BNS population. Values of the common envelope parameter $\alpha=1 - 3$ and an accurate model of the Milky Way star formation history best reproduce the BNS merger rate in our Galaxy ($\mathcal{R}_{\rm MW}\approx{}30$ Myr$^{-1}$). We apply radio-selection effects to our simulated BNSs and compare them to the observed population. Using a Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture method, we evaluate the four-dimensional likelihood in the $(P_{\rm orb}, e, P, \dot{P})$ space, by comparing our radio-selected simulated pulsars against Galactic BNSs. Our analysis favours an uniform initial distribution for both the magnetic field ($10^{10-13}$ G) and the spin period ($10-100$ ms). The implementation of radio selection effects is critical to match not only the spin period and period derivative, but also the orbital period and eccentricity of Galactic BNSs. According to our fiducial model, the Square Kilometre Array will detect $\sim 20$ new BNSs in the Milky Way., Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 8 tables, comments welcome

Measurements of the gravitational constant $G$ are notoriously difficult. Individual state-of-the-art experiments have managed to determine the value of $G$ with high precision: although, when considered collectively, the range in the measured values of $G$ far exceeds individual uncertainties, suggesting the presence of unaccounted for systematic effects. Here, we propose a Bayesian framework to account for the presence of systematic errors in the various measurement of $G$ while proposing a consensus value, following two paths: a parametric approach, based on the Maximum Entropy Principle, and a non-parametric one, the latter being a very flexible approach not committed to any specific functional form. With both our methods, we find that the uncertainty on this fundamental constant, once systematics are included, is significantly larger than what quoted in CODATA 2018. Moreover, the morphology of the non-parametric distribution hints towards the presence of several sources of unaccounted for systematics. In light of this, we recommend a consensus value for the gravitational constant $G = 6.6740^{+0.0015}_{-0.0015} \times 10^{-11}\ \mathrm{m}^3\ \mathrm{kg}^{-1}\ \mathrm{s}^{-2}$., Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for publication in EPJ C

The copious scientific literature produced after the detection of GW170817 electromagnetic counterpart demonstrated the importance of a prompt and accurate localization of the gravitational wave within the co-moving volume. In this letter, we present FIGARO, a ready to use and publicly available software that relies on Bayesian non-parametrics. FIGARO is designed to run in parallel with parameter estimation algorithms to provide updated three-dimensional volume localization information. Differently from any existing algorithms, the analytical nature of the FIGARO reconstruction allows a ranking of the entries of galaxy catalogues by their probability of being the host of a gravitational wave event, hence providing an additional tool for a prompt electromagnetic follow up of gravitational waves. We illustrate the features of FIGARO on binary black holes as well as on GW170817. Finally, we demonstrate the robustness of FIGARO by producing so-called pp-plots and we present a method based on information entropy to assess when, during the parameter estimation run, it is reasonable to begin releasing skymaps., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures

We introduce (H)DPGMM, a hierarchical Bayesian non-parametric method based on the Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model, designed to infer data-driven population properties of astrophysical objects without being committal to any specific physical model. We investigate the efficacy of our model on simulated datasets and demonstrate its capability to reconstruct correctly a variety of population models without the need of fine-tuning of the algorithm. We apply our method to the problem of inferring the black hole mass function given a set of gravitational wave observations from LIGO and Virgo, and find that the (H)DPGMM infers a binary black hole mass function that is consistent with previous estimates without the requirement of a theoretically motivated parametric model. Although the number of systems observed is still too small for a robust inference, (H)DPGMM confirms the presence of at least two distinct modes in the observed merging black holes mass function, hence suggesting in a model-independent fashion the presence of at least two classes of binary black hole systems., Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures