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Effective policies for adaptation to climate change require understanding how impacts are related to exposures and vulnerability, the dimensions of the climate system that will change most and where human impacts will be most draconian, and the institutions best suited to respond. Here, we propose a simple method for more credibly pairing empirical statistical damage estimates derived from recent weather and outcome observations with projected future climate changes and proposed responses. We first analyze agricultural production and loan repayment data from Brazil to understand vulnerability to historical variation in the more predictable components of temperature and rainfall (trend and seasonality) as well as to shocks (both local and over larger spatial scales). This decomposed weather variation over the past two decades explains over 50% of the yield variation in major Brazilian crops and, critically, can be constructed in the same way for future climate projections. Combining our estimates with bias-corrected downscaled climate simulations for Brazil, we find increased variation in yields and revenues (including more bad years and worse outcomes) and higher agricultural loan default at midcentury. Results in this context point to two particularly acute dimensions of vulnerability: Intensified seasonality and local idiosyncratic shocks both contribute to worsening outcomes, along with a reduced capacity for spatially correlated (covariate) shocks to ameliorate these effects through prices. These findings suggest that resilience strategies should focus on institutions such as water storage, financial services, and reinsurance.

We use firm-level data from ASEAN5 to examine the significance of tax-motivated profit shifting by multinational enterprises and to analyze how anti-avoidance measures mitigate the profit shifting. We show that (1) tax-motivated profit shifting is statistically and economically significant, especially for manufacturing firms, (2) auditing and transfer-pricing scrutiny is more effective in reducing profit shifting than documentation requirement alone and (3) tax-motivated profit shifting is prominent for large firms, while anti-tax avoidance measures result in the absence of profit shifting detected from small manufacturing firms. The findings have important implications for developing countries with weak governance but dependent on MNEs.

We use firm-level data from ASEAN5 to examine the significance of tax-motivated profit shifting by multinational enterprises and to analyze how anti-avoidance measures mitigate the profit shifting. We show that (1) tax-motivated profit shifting is statistically and economically significant, especially for manufacturing firms, (2) auditing and transfer-pricing scrutiny is more effective in reducing profit shifting than documentation requirement alone and (3) tax-motivated profit shifting is prominent for large firms, while anti-tax avoidance measures result in the absence of profit shifting detected from small manufacturing firms. The findings have important implications for developing countries with weak governance but dependent on MNEs.

Firms in developing countries are embedded in supply chains and labor networks. These linkages may propagate or attenuate shocks. Using panel data from Thai villages, we document three facts: as households facing idiosyncratic shocks adjust their production, these shocks propagate to other households on both the production and consumption sides; propagation is greater via labor than supply chain links; and shocks in denser networks and to more central households propagate more, while access to formal or informal insurance reduces propagation. Social benefits from expanding safety nets may be higher than private benefits. (JEL D13, D22, G22, I10, L14, L26, O10) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a vision for improving household financial surveys by integrating responses from questionnaires more completely with financial statements and combining them with payments data from diaries. Integrated household financial accounts--balance sheet, income statement, and statement of cashflows--are used to assess the degree of integration in leading U.S. household surveys, focusing on inconsistencies in measures of the change in cash. Diaries of consumer payment choice can improve dynamic integration. Using payments data, we construct a statement of liquidity flows: a detailed analysis of currency, checking accounts, prepaid cards, credit cards, and other payment instruments, consistent with conventional cash flow measures and the other financial accounts. (JEL D12, D14, E41, E42), I. INTRODUCTION During recent decades, interest in the study of household finance has grown rapidly. Campbell (2006) first advanced the case for treating household finance as a distinct field of [...]