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Following empirical research on the dynamics of conflict and cooperation under climate change, we discuss complex transitions and interactions, connected to models of tipping points, compounding and cascading risks. In the context of multiple crisis, pathways in the climate-conflict nexus are analysed, with conflict-relevant conditions, risk indicators and societal responses to compounding effects of conflict risk and climate vulnerability. System and agent models of conflict and cooperation are considered to analyze dynamic trajectories, equilibria, stability, chaos and empirical simulations as well as adaptive decision rules in multi-agent interaction and related tipping, cascading, networking and transformation processes. A bi-stable tipping model is applied to study transitions between conflict and cooperation, depending on internal and external factors as well as multi-layered networks of agents, showing how negative forces can reduce resilience and induce collapse to violent conflict. The case study of Lake Chad is used to demonstrate climate change as a risk multiplier in the model. For poor governance, community behavior is facing low barriers to climate stress which can tilt towards conflict, while resilience can build barriers against it. Narratives confirm that forced migration and militant forces lower the barrier and the chance for cooperation. Adaptive and anticipative governance based on integrative research and agency can prevent and contain climateinduced tipping to violent conflict and induce positive tipping towards cooperative solutions and synergies, e.g. through civil conflict transformation, environmental peacebuilding and forward-looking policies for Earth system stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to climate change, coastal communities are expected to experience increasing coastal impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Strategies formulated and implemented to curb these impacts can thus be more effective if scientific findings on the response to climate change and SLR impacts on coastal communities are taken into consideration and not based merely on the need for coastal protection due to physical coastal erosion. There is also the need to determine the level of awareness of sea-level rise and responses in coastal communities to improve adaptation planning. This study assesses the impact of future erosion on the coastal land cover of Ghana. This assessment estimates approximately 2.66 km2, 2.77 km2, and 3.24 km2 of coastal settlements, 2.10 km2, 2.20 km2 and 2.58 km2 of lagoons, 1.39 km2, 1.46 km2 and 1.71 km2 of wetlands to be at risk of inundation by the year 2050 based on coastal erosion estimates for the 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This study also assesses the level of awareness of respondents to SLR on the coast of Ghana and explores the availability and level of integration of scientific knowledge of SLR into coastal adaptation strategies in Ghana. Assessment of the awareness of SLR responses to the changing climate in Ghana is made through semi-structured interviews at national, municipal/district and coastal community scales. Although settlements may be inundated based on the coastal erosion estimates, coastal dwellers interviewed cherish their proximity to the sea and are determined to maintain their occupancy close to the sea as spatial location influences their source of livelihood (fishing). Respondents lack knowledge/understanding of SLR, as the majority of household interviewees attributed the rise or fall in sea level to God. Respondents from Ngiresia alleged that the ongoing coastal sea defence project in their community has led to increased malaria cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adequate fresh water availability is an important factor for human security in many parts of the world. In transboundary river basins, decreased water supply due to local environmental change and global climate change and increased water demand due to growing populations and continued economic development can aggravate water scarcity. Contrary to the claim that water scarcity may result in an increased risk of armed conflict, there is no simple relationship between freshwater availability and violent conflict. Other crucial factors need to be taken into consideration that also directly influence resource availability and personal human well-being. In this review, we assess the scientific literature on conflict and cooperation in transboundary river systems. Most international river basins are already jointly managed by the riparians, but successful management in times of climate change necessitates the inclusion of more factors besides mere allocation schemes. On the basis of a substantial body of literature on the management of transboundary watersheds, an analytical framework of the water-security nexus is developed that integrates the physical and socioeconomic pathways connecting water availability with conflict or cooperation. This framework is subsequently applied to two transboundary river basins-the Nile River and the Syr Darya/Amu Darya-as they represent two world regions that could become future water hot spots. An improved understanding of the developments leading to water conflicts and their interaction can help to successfully reduce the risk of water conflicts in these regions and to move toward increased cooperation among the riparians of transboundary river systems. WIREs Water 2016, 3:495-515. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1151 For further resources related to this article, please visit the . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change from consensual decision-making arrangements into centralized hierarchical chieftaincy schemes through colonization disrupted many rural conflict resolution mechanisms in Africa. In addition, climate change impacts on land use have introduced additional socio-ecological factors that complicate rural conflict dynamics. Despite the current urgent need for conflict-sensitive adaptation, resolution efficiency of these fused rural institutions has hardly been documented. In this context, we analyse the Loitoktok network for implemented resource conflict resolution structures and identify potential actors to guide conflict-sensitive adaptation. This is based on social network data and processes that are collected using the saturation sampling technique to analyse mechanisms of brokerage. We find that there are three different forms of fused conflict resolution arrangements that integrate traditional institutions and private investors in the community. To effectively implement conflict-sensitive adaptation, we recommend the extension officers, the council of elders, local chiefs and private investors as potential conduits of knowledge in rural areas. In conclusion, efficiency of these fused conflict resolution institutions is aided by the presence of holistic resource management policies and diversification in conflict resolution actors and networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Security implications of climate change have been highlighted by various political and advisory bodies, as well as non-governmental organizations (NGOs), in recent years. It is unclear, however, whether such a ‘securitization’ of climate change can also be found beyond institutionalized politics in the public realm, and beyond Western countries. This article addresses these questions by investigating mass media coverage in nine countries over a period of 15 years. Based on an analysis of more than 101,000 newspaper articles, it shows an increasing discussion of climate change in security terms, with diverging trends in the analysed countries. While Western, industrialized countries such as the USA, the UK or Australia display an increasing securitization of climate change, the amount of securitizing language has decreased in India and South Africa. Moreover, different countries refer to different security dimensions – with regard both to the subjects whose security is of concern (national security, human security) and to the type of resources that are discussed in security terms (energy security, water security, food security). While Western countries strongly focus on national security and energy security, emerging economies place greater emphasis on food and, less pronounced, on water security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Als „Wunder von Paris" wird der Weltklimavertrag gefeiert. Bereits die Tatsache, dass sich 195 Staaten bei einer derart komplexen Frage auf ein volkerrechtlich verbindliches Abkommen einigen konnten, ist ein historischer klimadiplomatischer Erfolg. Anders als im Kyoto-Protokoll, das nur für einige Industrielander mafigeblich war, werden mit dem neuen Abkommen Regeln einer gemeinsamen Klimapolitik für alle Staaten aufgestellt. Weltweit gab es viel Zustimmung, aber auch berechtigte Kritik. Reichen die Beschliisse aus, werden sie uberhaupt erfüllt? Die Umsetzung der Pariser Vereinbarung hangt von alien Ebenen des internationalen Systems ab, von der globalen über die nationale bis hin zur lokalen Ebene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing deficits of current research on the link between climate change and violent conflict, this article aims to contribute to a more systematic understanding of the violence concept in the context of environmental change. We present a theoretical framework and potential pathways between climate change and violence and an agent-based approach to assess the interplay between capabilities and motivations for violence and the conditions for conflicting or cooperative interactions. Acting as a ‘threat multiplier’, climate change could exceed adaptive capacities and undermine the livelihoods of communities. In the most affected regions, the erosion of social order and state failure as well as already ongoing violent conflicts could be aggravated, leading to a spiral of violence that further dissolves societal structures. Against this background we analyse case studies in Kenya and Sudan, focusing on factors driving or preventing a spiral of violence. While interpastoral conflicts in north-western Kenya result in limited numbers of casualties, the Darfur conflict has been shaped by the civil war in Sudan, involving the government, rebel forces and militias, causing significant loss of lives and destruction. The impact of climate change is less direct in Sudan than in Kenya. To avoid a spiral of violence, in both cases it is essential to reduce socio-economical marginalisation, develop resource-sharing mechanisms and restrain access to arms as part of long-term strategies for a sustainable and peaceful intervention to contain the adverse impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article reviews the conflict potential of climate engineering (CE) against the background of possible security implications of climate change. A conceptual framework is used to compare the technologies for carbon removal and solar radiation management regarding different characteristics and to assess the causes and drivers of potential conflict. Although CE measures may possibly reduce climate-related conflicts, they could also intensify already existing international conflict structures or add new dimensions of conflict, in particular if their impacts are high]y uncertain, quick, strong and heterogeneous, where the severity can vary regionally. While carbon engineering requires large resources and thus may contribute to resource conflicts, solar engineering is usually less costly and more efficient, but has numerous anticipated side-effects that could cause novel conflicts and security implications in the international system. To avoid serious conflicts, regulative mechanisms and institutional structures are needed, building on the ENMOD-Convention that restrains military or hostile use of environmental modification. Given the high uncertainties, anticipative and adaptive governance structures that involve stakeholders and their perspectives are necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Human migration has been described as one of the conflict constellations in regions affected by climate change, but can also contribute to climate adaptation. Migrant social networks can help to build social capital to increase the social resilience in the communities of origin and trigger innovations across regions by the transfer of knowledge, technology, remittances and other resources. These could increase the flexibility, diversity and creativity of communities in addressing climate stress and open new pathways for co-development connecting the home and host communities. Based on a conceptual framework connecting migration and adaptation, the paper explores possible opportunities, innovative approaches and institutional mechanisms for migration as a contribution to climate adaptation. The Western Sahel will be used as a case study region, with a focus on Mali, Mauritania and Senegal, using qualitative and quantitative analysis of remittances at the national level, and a micro-level analysis on the role of migrant networks in these countries in specific co-development projects in water, food and energy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article provides a concise overview of methods for analyzing policy choices that have been used in the study of long-term environmental challenges. We open with an overview of the broad classes of methods used for long-term policy analysis, and subsequent sections will describe in depth three particular methods. They are: statistical models, such as employed in the debate on the environmental Kuznets curve, which infer past patterns from data and project them into the future; robust decision-making, a decision analytic framework that supports choices under deep uncertainty, and relates near-term policy interventions to different clusters of long-term environmental futures; and adaptive control and agent-based modeling, which provide an approach to simulation modeling that focuses on cooperation and conflict among multiple actors and their choice of strategies. While all three approaches can be used for various applications, this article focuses on the challenge of a potential transition to a low-carbon future to illustrate the strengths, weaknesses, and synergies among the respective methods. In the final section, we offer guidance for choosing among methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have shown that many marine ecosystems are experiencing an accelerating loss of population and biodiversity. It is apparent that there is a growing disparity between the available supply of fish and the desire of the growing world population to catch them. Although studies have begun to question the ecological sustainability of managed fishery systems, they often omit the corresponding effects on the economic sustainability of fishery industries. This is particularly important in rural coastal areas where the fishing industry is often a dominant employer. In this article, we analyze the interactions between economic and ecological dynamic systems using a multi-agent dynamic model of fishery management. Multiple agents (fishers) harvest multiple fish species and adapt the amount and allocation of their effort to their value functions, which are given as net profits of the fish harvest sold for a market price. This is largely unique in fishery models, since many econometric studies view fishers as represented by homogenous ‘average’ agents. We introduce and compare two different decision rules governing the behavior of fishers engaged in a competitive market. We demonstrate a situation where both behaviors lead to a decline of all fish stocks, as well as profits for most fishers. As an alternative, we introduce a cooperative approach in which fisheries jointly set sustainable limits for total harvest and effort that are then distributed to the fishers according to distribution rules. The simulation reveals that fish stocks and profits can stabilize at significantly higher levels in the cooperative case, leading to a continuous accumulation of capital for all fishers. This model demonstrates key aspects of overfishing conflicts that can be overcome through planned fishing quotas and cooperative market mechanisms. It also demonstrates a novel approach for simulating the dynamic behavior of heterogeneous fishers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

India's monsoon dependent agriculture is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and inadequate policies contribute to socio-economic difficulties in farming communities. Many current policies and strategies to combat climate change impacts are focused on technical aspects of adaptations whereas little research is done to understand the socio-economic dimensions, particularly the perspectives of farmers. To address this gap, we conducted semi-structured interviews with more than 800 farm-families residing in the Northeastern Region of India (NER), an Eastern Himalayan ecosystem. Results show that most farmers perceive changes in climate and are aware of its agricultural and socio-economic impacts. The majority of farmers from all eight NER states have personally experienced unusual climatic events within the last 10–15 years. About two-thirds believe that climate change is largely man-made and there is an urgent need to take action. Many farmers observed declining water availability and soil fertility across NER. High cost of agricultural inputs and unawareness of effective adaptation technologies are the core barriers for adaptation in NER. To sustain their livelihoods, vulnerable farmers have adopted a few low-cost measures. However, strategic interventions are highly advocated to empower human capital for enhancing socio-ecological resilience. In conclusion, to overcome the barriers of farm adaptations in NER, holistic support programs are needed, which raise awareness for suitable actions, reduce input costs, and facilitate access to financial credits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current debates over the relation between climate change and conflict originate in a lack of data, as well as the complexity of pathways connecting the two phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future electricity planning necessitates a thorough multi-faceted analysis of the available technologies in order to secure the energy supply for coming generations. To cope with worldwide concerns over sustainable development and meet the growing demands of electricity we assess the future potential technologies in Egypt through covering their technical, economic, environmental and social aspects. In this study we fill the gap of a lacking sustainability assessment of energy systems in Egypt where most of the studies focus mainly on the economic and technical aspects of planning future installation of power plants in Egypt. Furthermore, we include the stakeholder preferences of the indicators in the energy sector into our assessment. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity analysis through single dimension assessment scenarios of the technologies as well as a sustainable scenario with equal preferences of all dimensions of the sustainability. We employ two multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methodologies: the analytical hierarchy process for weighing the assessment criteria, and the weighted sum method for generating a general integrated sustainability index for each technology. The study investigates seven technologies: coal, natural gas, wind, concentrated solar power, photovoltaics, biomass and nuclear. The results reveal a perfect matching between the ranking of the technologies by the stakeholders and the sustainable scenario showing the highest ranking for natural gas and the lowest for nuclear and coal. There is a strong potential for renewable energy technologies to invade the electricity market in Egypt where they achieve the second ranking after natural gas. The Monte-Carlo approach gives photovoltaics a higher ranking over concentrated solar power as compared to the sample data ranking. The study concludes the importance of a multi-dimensional evaluation of the technologies while considering the preferences of the stakeholders in order to achieve a reliable and sustainable future energy supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming poses serious risks to the environment, communities, and international peace and security. Significant concerns have been raised that, in the case of climate policy failures, the world may enter a Warming War, threatening the future viability of the planet and its life-sustaining ecosystems. While the regime of treaties and agreements governing climate change acknowledges the science and threats posed by global warming, it is not well positioned to constrain the securitization of climate change. A function of international law is to prevent armed conflict by resolving disputes through the judicial application of principles and norms governing relations between States. However, to date, it has been ineffective in addressing the impacts of climate change on armed conflict, because the treaties applicable to climate change fail to provide preventative, enforcement, and dispute resolution mechanisms. It is time for international law to establish judicial bodies with jurisdiction for conflict resolution and response capacities in the pre-phase to a Warming War. The challenge is to develop soft security measures to avoid climate conflict risks turning violent and becoming a hard security issue, attracting the use of force by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The establishment of an International Court for the Environment (ICE) is proposed as an entity that could enforce legally binding norms and resolve climate-induced disputes, opening an avenue for stakeholders to bring climate loss and damage cases to court. Aside from the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) to limit global warming, and the establishment of new legal regimes, alternative actions can be undertaken to protect the environment and communities, by mitigating climate-related risks. There is growing discourse surrounding climate change as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. In the pre-phase to conflict, there is an urgent need to identify these vulnerabilities and their levels of influence on the compound effects of climate and conflict risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate change and security nexus is an evolving area of research and policy. At the outset of work in this field, major research concentrated on how climate change is adversely impacting human well-being. However, in recent years, academics began to reflect critically on the social, cultural and political construction of vulnerabilities and developing understandings of climate change as a risk multiplier. Different aspects of the conflict–security nexus and its future trajectories became subject to critical academic scrutiny, including at a 2021 conference at Hamburg University where more than 100 scholars of relevant research interests from across the globe discussed and debated twenty-eight presented research papers. A total of sixty-five scholars from over twenty institutions have contributed to those research papers and participated in extensive discussions. The conclusion of these discussions highlights how climate change is an opportunity to reflect upon everyday injustices in distribution and access to resources as integral to concerns with security and conflict. A holistic approach to the nexus of climate change and security is thus vital to efforts to promote and realise societal development efforts while minimising social and environmental injustice. This article was published open access under a CC BY licence: https://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This study develops a smart groundwater governance (SGG) model using a dynamics approach. • It introduces new smart and dynamic models to compensate policy deficiencies. • The study applied both secondary and primary data to model the groundwater cycle. • The results outline the benefits of the model for policy and decision makers in SGG. • The findings allow decision makers to choose the best alternative scenarios toward SGG. Groundwater is one of the most important and vital resources in the world. In current decades, increased water demand and pollution threaten groundwater availability. Yet, groundwater governance is a serious challenge and despite many studies focusing on groundwater assessments, its governance has been largely neglected. Smart groundwater governance is one of the most critical areas to improve the sustainable use of this resource in societies and people's livelihood. The main goal of this paper was to introduce a model to evaluate and measure the smartness level of any policy or action as an index. To do so, this study uses a system dynamics (SD) approach to develop a smart groundwater governance (SGG) model to assist policy and decision makers to better understand the short and long-term impacts of their actions, plans, and policies. For this purpose, the SGG index was introduced in the dynamic model, including four indicators (i.e., equitability, efficiency, sustainability, and democracy) and was applied in Iran. The results indicate that groundwater balance is critical (i.e. negative) and the current trend of groundwater governance is highly non-smart in the country. This study concluded that the best strategy to manage this situation and to govern the groundwater resources in a smarter manner includes both increasing the infiltration rate and decreasing the extraction rate (or increase the water efficiency) as the left and right based scenarios. The obtained results also demonstrate the benefits of the SGG index for policy and decision makers in SGG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Human cystic and alveolar echinococcosis are neglected tropical diseases that WHO has prioritized for control in recent years. Both diseases impose substantial burdens on public health and the socio-economy in China. In this study, which is based on the national echinococcosis survey from 2012 to 2016, we aim to describe the spatial prevalence and demographic characteristics of cystic and alveolar echinococcosis infections in humans and assess the impact of environmental, biological and social factors on both types of the disease. Methods: We computed the sex-, age group-, occupation- and education level-specific prevalences of cystic and alveolar echinococcosis at national and sub-national levels. We mapped the geographical distribution of echinococcosis prevalence at the province, city and county levels. Finally, by analyzing the county-level echinococcosis cases combined with a range of associated environmental, biological and social factors, we identified and quantified the potential risk factors for echinococcosis using a generalized linear model. Results: A total of 1,150,723 residents were selected and included in the national echinococcosis survey between 2012 and 2016, of whom 4161 and 1055 tested positive for cystic and alveolar echinococcosis, respectively. Female gender, older age, occupation at herdsman, occupation as religious worker and illiteracy were identified as risk factors for both types of echinococcosis. The prevalence of echinococcosis was found to vary geographically, with areas of high endemicity observed in the Tibetan Plateau region. Cystic echinococcosis prevalence was positively correlated with cattle density, cattle prevalence, dog density, dog prevalence, number of livestock slaughtered, elevation and grass area, and negatively associated with temperature and gross domestic product (GDP). Alveolar echinococcosis prevalence was positively correlated with precipitation, level of awareness, elevation, rodent density and rodent prevalence, and negatively correlated with forest area, temperature and GDP. Our results also implied that drinking water sources are significantly associated with both diseases. Conclusions: The results of this study provide a comprehensive understanding of geographical patterns, demographic characteristics and risk factors of cystic and alveolar echinococcosis in China. This important information will contribute towards developing targeted prevention measures and controlling diseases from the public health perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to analyze the role of social capital and leadership in improving the adaptive capacity of Iranian pistachio farmers by using Social Network Analysis (SNA). The results indicate that the studied network is not a dense network, and there are few reciprocal and face-to-face relations among farmers. The findings also illustrate that in all cooperative links, there were no noticeable bridging links among the farmers and their tendency toward bonding links, indicating less bridging social capital at the three studied villages. The nature of relationships in social networks will improve if the quality of communication between individuals in a network and actors from other networks and villages is enhanced. This can increase the productivity of social networks and lead to higher quality resources, better support, development of useful information between networks and improvement in farmers' adaptive capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proposes a systematic analysis of water management and allocation on the scale of a river basin, considering climate impacts and stakeholder networks in the Dongjiang River basin in South China. Specific approaches are integrated to explore various subtopics. Findings indicate a slight increase of precipitation in the basin and strong fluctuations in this century due to climate extremes, which may lead to seasonal or quality-related water shortages. It is highlighted that alternative options for holistic water management are needed in the basin, and participatory water allocation mechanisms and establishment of a basin-wide management framework could be helpful. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the article on possible link between wars and climate change by Andrew Solow in a 2013 issue of the periodical is presented.

In the context of combating climate change and maintaining energy security, ambitious bioenergy development projects in emerging economies face considerable challenges, for example an overburdened bioenergy industry infrastructure due to the growing demand for bioenergy products. There are abundant studies on optimizing the bioenergy industry infrastructure. However, they fail to comprehensively simulate the interactions among the predominant actors of the infrastructure, especially the bioenergy plant operators in emerging economies. To fill this research gap, we develop a new dynamic agent-based model of optimized bioenergy industry infrastructure from the perspective of bioenergy plant operators. We then apply the model to Jiangsu Province of China to simulate the coordination of two types of bioenergy plants and project the optimal distribution of these plants and their corresponding transportation networks for the year of 2030. The model results suggest locating bioenergy plants closer to bioenergy feedstock source regions rather than to bioenergy products consumption sites, an answer to the classical facility location problem. A welfare analysis based on the extended model indicates that the biomass densification process aiming at mitigating the growing transport volumes incurred by the delivery of bulky bioenergy feedstock is not economically profitable in our case region. The experiences from this region further show that for emerging economies, a successful bioenergy industry infrastructure needs to take the benefits of smallholder farmers into consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article applies a multi-method approach to develop a better measurement of urbanization dynamics using remote and human sensing based on a GIS platform. The results demonstrate the benefits of bringing human and remote sensing sources together in a framework of hot spot analysis for a megacity such as Mexico City. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that human and remote sensing work well together in detecting the expansion of illegal urban settlements. Looking at the driving factors of illegal settlements, the existence of strong association between the expansion of illegal urban settlements and socioeconomic factors such as unemployment, provides some answers and reveals new questions. Illegal urban growth often leads to the loss of ecological areas in the urban frontiers, especially in areas where the urbanization potential is high. As a consequence, there are conflicts with legal settlers who dislike the illegal expansion. This approach can be extended to and replicated in new urbanizing areas, in particular in Africa and Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we develop an agent-based model to explore a feasible way of simultaneously providing sufficient food and bioenergy feedstocks in China. Concerns over the competition for agricultural land resources between food and bioenergy supply hinder the further development of bioenergy, especially in China, the country that needs tofeed the world's largest population. Prior research has suggested the introduction of energy crops and reviewed the resulting agricultural land use change in China. However, there is a lack of quantitative studies which estimate the value, contribution, and impact of bioenergy for specific conditions at the county level and provide adequate information to guide local practices. Tofill this gap, we choose the Jiangsu Province in China as a case study, build up a spatial-agent dynamic model of agricultural land use, and perform a sensitivity analysis for important parameters. The simulation results show that straw from conventional crops generally dominates Jiangsu's biomass supply with a contribution above 85%. The sensitivity analyses reveal severe consequences of bioenergy targets for local land use. For Jiangsu Province, reclaimed mudflats, an alternative to arable lands for energy crop plantation, help to secure the local biomass supply and to alleviate the land use conflict between food and biomass production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil provided one of the most severe examples of its impacts on health and society. The country had death rates above the global average and acute impacts in increased unemployment, poverty, and threats to food security marked along ethnic and social lines. This study asks how different degrees of vulnerability between Brazilian cities lead to varying survival probabilities of their population in the phases of the pandemic in the country. To answer this question, this research presents a descriptive and analytic exploration of the relationship between vulnerability and COVID-19 from February 2020 to February 2021. We describe this period in seven distinct phases, characterised by geographic units, vectors of virus transmission, and infected cases and fatality numbers. In this context, we implement an exploratory survival analysis of COVID-19 fatalities using the Kaplan-Meier estimator (KME) in a set of cities with different social vulnerability degrees. The KME is a common analytic tool in medicine, and we implement it in a geographic investigation to focus on the temporal dimension of the crisis and examine socio-territorial vulnerability. Our results present a clear association between vulnerability and COVID-19 deaths. Highly vulnerable cities show low survival probabilities, and there are statistically significant differences in survival probability between low- and high-vulnerability cities. Further research should advance by investigating spatio-temporal dynamics, providing fine-resolution empirical information, and addressing behavioural components related to COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Global South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China announced a target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. As one of the most promising pathways to minimize carbon emissions, the low-carbon electricity supply is of high consideration in China's future energy planning. The main purpose of this study is to provide a comparative overview of the regional siting potential of various low-carbon power plants in the Yangtze River Delta of China. First, unsuitable zones for power plants are identified and excluded based on national regulations and landscape constraints. Second, we evaluate the spatial siting potential of the seven low-carbon energy power plants by ranking their suitability with geographic information system (GIS)-based hierarchical analysis (AHP). The results revealed that around 78% of the area is suitable for power plant siting. In summary, biomass power plants have high siting potential in over half of the spatial areas. Solar photovoltaic and waste-to-electricity are encouraged to establish in the long-term future. The maps visualize micro-scale spatial siting potential and can be coupled with the sustainability assessments of power plants to design an explicit guiding plan for future power plant allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, rapid economic growth and urbanization have driven significant livelihood transitions in rural China, which raised diverse climate and environmental impacts. This study investigated the impacts of such livelihood transitions on rural households' carbon footprint at the Three Gorges Reservoir area in West China during the period of 1978–2016. By random sampling surveys, a total of 422 households were interviewed in September 2016 and March 2017. Our results show that: 1) The vast majority of households shifted their livelihood strategies from pure agriculture to industry and/or commerce. 2) Household incomes generally became more diverse and were increasingly generated from non-agricultural sectors. 3) Changes of the carbon footprint of the surveyed households indicated a significant transformation from net carbon emission (1494.789 tons) in 1978 to net carbon sequestration (2631.85 tons) in 2016, which was contributed mainly by general shifts of rural livelihood styles and government policies (e.g. the Grain for Green policy). Accordingly, to promote a low-carbon rural development at the study area and possibly beyond, we suggest political strategies to encourage voluntary and flexible farmland utilization, promote capital investments in agriculture mechanization, improve rural infrastructures, upscaling agricultural technical training, and continue and specialize the "Grain for Green" policy at suitable locations. • Rural households changed livelihood strategies from pure agriculture to mixed industry and/or commerce. • Rural households' carbon footprint transformed from net carbon emission in 1978 to net carbon sequestration in 2016. • Studied carbon emissions increased slightly while the carbon sequestration increased significantly. • Carbon footprint changes were determined by transitions of rural livelihood and government policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise and high-impact coastal hazards due to on-going and projected climate change dramatically affect many coastal urban areas worldwide, including those with the highest urbanization growth rates. To develop tailored coastal climate services that can inform decision makers on climate adaptation in coastal cities, a better understanding and modeling of multifaceted urban dynamics is important. We develop a coastal urban model family, where the population growth and urbanization rates are modeled in the framework of diffusion over the half-bounded and bounded domains, and apply the maximum entropy principle to the latter case. Population density distributions are derived analytically whenever possible. Steady-state wave solutions balancing the width of inhabited coastal zones, with the skewed distributions maximizing population entropy, might be responsible for the coastward migrations outstripping the demographic development of the hinterland. With appropriate modifications of boundary conditions, the developed family of diffusion models can describe coastal urban dynamics affected by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As hydro-meteorological hazards are predicted to become more frequent and intense in the future, scholars and policymakers are increasingly concerned about their security implications, especially in the context of ongoing climate change. Our study contributes to this debate by analysing the pathways to water-related conflict onset under drought conditions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1996 and 2009. It is also the first such analysis that focuses on small-scale conflicts involving little or no physical violence, such as protests or demonstrations. These nonviolent conflicts are politically relevant, yet understudied in the literature on climate change and conflict, environmental security, and political instability. We employ the method of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to integrate quantitative and qualitative data at various scales (national, regional, local) for a sample of 34 cases (17 of which experienced conflict onset). Our findings show that pre-existing cleavages and either autocratic political systems or cuts of the public water supply are relevant predictors of nonviolent, water-related conflict onset during droughts. Grievances deeply embedded into socio-economic structures in combination with a triggering event like a drought or water cuts are hence driving such water-related conflicts, especially in the absence of proper political institutions. We thus argue that drought–conflict links are highly context-dependent even for nonviolent, local conflicts, hence challenging determinist narratives that claim direct interlinkages between climate change, hydro-meteorological disasters and conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tribal farmers in the Himalayas are vulnerable to climatic changes, as their rain-fed cultivation systems, practiced on steep, sloping terrain, are susceptible to changes in rainfall while at the same time being the primary means of livelihood. Soil and water conservation practices (SWCP) can improve the resilience of these cultivation systems to adverse climatic conditions. However, little is known about adaptation within these tribal farming communities. This is the first empirical study on the adaptation decisions of tribal farmers in the Himalayan uplands of Northeast India. Starting from the analysis of future climate risks, we surveyed 372 tribal farmers in Nagaland state to analyze perceived climate and environmental changes in relation to socio-demographic factors. We estimate current adoption rates of SWCP together with farmers' goals and values and employ a binary logit model (BLM) to quantify the influence of diverse factors on adaptation decisions. Our results show that increases in temperatures and crop diseases were the most perceived changes by tribal farmers. Climate projections indicate that precipitation amount and intensity, along with temperatures, will increase towards the end of the century, underlining the importance of SWCP. However, all considered SWCP were employed by less than half of the tribal farmers. Adoption probabilities for all practices were significantly increased when farmers participated in agricultural training. After that, participation in a civil society organization, livestock ownership, high-altitude locations, and perceived increases in droughts were found to increase adoption probabilities significantly, while socio-demographic factors were of only minor importance. If the most effective factor was employed to all farmers, average adoption rates of SWCP could at least double. Adoption decisions were mainly motivated by improving livelihoods, sustaining natural resources, reducing workload, and preserving cultural aspects of cultivation. This research contributes to understanding adaptation decisions of tribal farmers and quantifies the untapped potential for climate change adaptation of marginalized and climate-vulnerable farming communities in mountain regions. [Display omitted] • Most farmers observed rising temperatures and crop diseases and declining rains and yields. • Soil and water conservation practices (SWCP) are used by less than 50% of tribal farmers. • Exploiting unused adaptation potentials could double adoption rates of SWCP. • Agricultural training is the most influential factor for adaptation. • Improving livelihoods and conserving natural resources are farmers' major motivations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest transition and urban shrinkage have received increased attention in national ecological conservation (NEC) and local development (LD) with the urgent to attain sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, few studies have concerned with the impacts of forest transition on urban shrinkage, which limits an in-depth understanding of the relationship between NEC and LD. The study aims to bridge this gap based on an analysis framework of the relationship between forest transition and urban shrinkage. We used Yichun City, one of the representative forest-based cities in China, as a case study to quantitatively analyze the impacts of forest transition on urban shrinkage by conducting the baseline regression and the threshold regression models from 1973 to 2018. The results show that forest transition exerts triggering effects on urban shrinkage via combination of socioeconomic dynamics and NEC policy. The underlying mechanisms of the effects are concluded as a causal chain with the triggering factor of industrial diversity: 'NEC policy – forest transition – socioeconomic dynamics – urban shrinkage'. This study provides significant insight into the trade-off between NEC and LD in that the national policy for promoting natural ecosystem recovery may sacrifice local development, which challenges sustainable development both at the national and local levels. For this reason, policy implications have been proposed to achieve the win-win options of NEC and LD, including differentiated policies on forest management and industrial structure upgrading strategies based on industry diversification. • An analysis framework of the relationship between forest transition (FT) and urban shrinkage (US) is presented. • National ecological conservation versus local development is analyzed based on the triggering effects of FT on US. • The effects are explained by a causal chain with the triggering factor of industrial diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between environmental change and migration has generated considerable scholarly debate. In part the literature suggests that climate change in the Sahel is 'forcing' pastoralist groups (mainly Fulani) to migrate to semi-arid West African countries, including Ghana, due to resource scarcity and climatic conditions. Using interviews, focus-group discussions and observations, this article argues that beyond theoretical postulations on resource scarcity and environmentally induced migration, there are multiple drivers that affect diverse migration patterns among Fulani pastoralists in Ghana. This study finds and discusses a range of important drivers of migration, including labour demand for pastoralists, access to pasture, conflict, social networks and peaceful relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livelihood in Iran’s rural areas, as elsewhere in the developing world, is highly intertwined with the harvesting of environmental resources, leading to severe environmental degradation. To shed light on possible solutions, this study employs the conceptual framework of sustainable livelihood and the multinomial logit model. This reveals the intra-household determinants of each livelihood strategy that significantly contribute to designing better livelihoods and socio-economic development programs. Such factors alleviate environmental resource demand, and thus degradation. By employing a two-step cluster analysis with seven indicators related to households’ livelihood activity, three distinctive livelihood strategies were identified, including commercial, mixed, and fishery/livestock strategies. Livelihood assets that encompass human, physical, social, natural, and financial assets are considered as dependent variables, while household livelihood strategies are independent variables. Data was collected through both qualitative and quantitative methods, including household surveys, direct observation, and unstructured interviews with local informants and administrators. The results show that enhancing financial, social, and human assets have facilitated adopting commercial and mixed strategies, while physical assets have enhanced the propensity toward the fishery/livestock strategy. Moreover, although financial assets are the most significant assets in facilitating adoption of non-environmental strategies, enhancing environmental pursuer’s access to financial resources alone, without improving their human and social assets, may lead to higher harvesting efforts. Therefore, the study concludes that interventions aimed at enhancing both conservation and livelihoods should improve the human, social, and financial assets of resource users, to facilitate the adoption of less environmentally reliant and profitable strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports that the renewable energy production plays an important role in northern Germany. It notes that the use of renewables is still expanding, with varied associated challenges for land use. It adds that energy production from renewable sources has much more pronounced land-use requirements than energy production from fossil resources.

The Horn of Africa region stands out amongst the planet's territories that are most volatile and vulnerable to armed violence. Conflicts have greatly affected the region over the past 50 years. The conflicts have disrupted the lives of people as well as the environment in ways that are not fully understood. Although armed conflict has generally had a negative impact on the environment, the environmental impact of conflict within the Horn of Africa has barely been evaluated. Similarly, our understanding that climate variability as well as change could have played a role in increasing or decreasing the impacts of conflicts within the Horn of Africa is insufficient. Therefore, this paper looks at the environmental impacts of conflict in the Horn of Africa since 1970 and also the role of climate variability in increasing or decreasing the impacts of conflict. Scientific publications as well as grey literature were reviewed with the aim to understand the status of past and present conflicts in the Horn of Africa, environmental impacts of conflict and the role of climate variability in decreasing or increasing impacts of conflict. The review demonstrates that conflict has extensive negative impacts on the environment in the Horn of Africa with main causes like grievances, government behaviour and interests, resource scarcity and transborder conflict as well as internal migration and climate variability. Similarly, climate variability plays a great role in exacerbating the impacts of conflict in the region. However, further research is needed to clearly show the impact of conflict and climate variability on the environment in the Horn of Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling experts have been continually researching the interplay of human mobility and COVID-19 transmission since the outbreak of the pandemic. They tried to address this problem and support the control of the pandemic spreading at the national or regional levels. However, these modeling approaches had little success in producing empirically verifiable results at the neighborhood level due to a lack of data and limited representation of low spatial scales in the models. To fill this gap, this research aims to present an agent-based model to simulate human mobility choices in the context of COVID-19, based on social activities of individuals in the neighborhood. We apply the VIABLE model to the decision-making process of heterogeneous agents, who populate the system's environment. The agents adapt their mobility and activities autonomously at each iteration to improve their well-being and respond to exposure risks. The study reveals significant temporal variations in mobility choices between the groups of agents with different vulnerability levels under the Covid-19 pandemic. Agents from the same group with similar economic backgrounds tend to select the same mobility patterns and activities leading to segregation at this low scale. We calibrated the model with a focus on Porto Alegre in Brazil. • We develop an agent-based model to understand neighborhood-level exposure-related human mobility behavior • We apply the VIABLE model in the decision-making process of agents to lead to a better choice • Our results show agents' dynamic segregated mobility behaviors during Covid-19 • The model is applicable to a variety of environmental shock scenarios [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, declining soil fertility is the main biophysical constraint to improve crop yield and poses a potential threat to food security. This study aims to explore the elements that could influence the adoption of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices as well as their impact on maize yield. This study is based on a pseudo-panel collected by Ethiopia's central statistical agency (CSA) in collaboration with the World Bank. A Multinomial Endogenous Switching Regression model (MESR) was employed to achieve the specified objectives. The findings revealed that 15% of plots received no soil fertility-enhancing treatments, while 35% received a combination of inorganic fertilizer and manure to boost soil fertility. The average maize yield in the study was 3.44 tons per hectare, which was nearly equal to the average national yield in the prior year. Finally, maize yield was significantly influenced by soil fertility management measures, whether used alone or in combination of two or more soil fertility enhancing technologies. The extent of the impact, however, varies significantly depending on the inputs employed. Thus, using manure or compost alone had a moderate but significant impact on maize yield, but using inorganic fertilizer in combination with manure had the biggest impact. Therefore, policies that support the expansion of ISFM practices should be promoted. Farm households also receive technical assistance and training to better understand the use of ISFM practices, and policies that promote them should be expanded. • This study evaluated the elements influencing the adoption of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices. • Declining soil fertility is the main biophysical constraint to improve crop yield and food security. • Maize yield was significantly influenced by soil fertility management measures. • Using inorganic fertilizer in combination with manure had the biggest impact. • Using manure or compost had a moderate but significant impact on maize yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper aimed to investigate the interactions between land use cover (LUC) and climate change (CC). • The results showed that the interactions between LUC and CC are both direct and indirect. • Arable and rangeland use changes affect CO2 emission in both direct and indirect ways. • Rising rangelands and reducing forest areas have indirectly increased surface temperature. • CC mitigation policies should be followed by considering both direct and indirect effects. Humanity deals with several challenges in this century such as climate change, land use, and land use/cover change (LUCC). Determining the patterns, developments, and consequences of LUCC issues for the livelihoods of people, especially poor people, is very important. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the interactions between LUCC and climate change over the period of 1966–2015 (50 years) as a complex system at the global level. CO 2 emissions and surface temperature are considered as the main indicators of climate change (CC). The data were analyzed in time-oriented (time-based) and local or place-oriented (country-based) manners. The results showed that arable and rangeland use changes (LUC) affect CO 2 emissions in both direct and indirect ways. However, the direct effect of rangeland use change is positive, and its indirect effect is negative. In addition, deforestation has increased CO 2 emissions indirectly. LUCC can also change the ability of the ecosystem to deliver services to people, including biodiversity and other resources such as food, fiber, water, etc. Therefore, it is critical to determine the patterns, trends, and impacts of LUCC on CC. Thus, CC mitigation policies should be followed by considering both direct and indirect effects. Without a doubt, this will be realized when the decision and policymakers have a better understanding of the structure and interaction between CC, LUCC, and their components as a whole system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To gain insights on long-term social-ecological resilience, we examined adaptive responses of small-scale societies to dryland-related hazards in different regions and chronological periods, spanning from the mid-Holocene to the present. Based on evidence from Africa (Sahara and Sahel), Asia (south margin of the Thar desert), and Europe (South Spain), we discuss key traits and coping practices of small-scale societies that are potentially relevant for building resilience. The selected case studies illustrate four main coping mechanisms: mobility and migration, storage, commoning, and collective action driven by religious beliefs. Ultimately, the study of resilience in the context of drylands emphasizes the importance of adaptive traits and practices that are distinctive of small-scale societies: a strong social-ecological coupling, a solid body of traditional ecological knowledge, and a high degree of internal cohesion and self-organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies discuss the link between climate change and violent conflict, especially for East Africa. While there is extensive literature on the question whether climate change increases the risk of violent conflict onset, not much is known about where a climate-conflict link is most likely to be found. We address this question by analyzing the spatial distribution of the factors commonly associated with a high exposure and vulnerability to climate change, and a high risk of violent conflict onset in Kenya and Uganda. Drawing on recent literature and quantitative data for the period 1998–2008, we develop various specifications of a composite risk index (CRI) with a spatial resolution of half a degree for Kenya and Uganda in the year 2008. A quantitative comparison with conflict data for the year 2008 provides support for the composite risk index. Finally, the composite risk index is contrasted with the findings of three qualitative case studies, which provide mixed support for the index and help to identify its strengths and weaknesses as well as conceptual needs for further quantitative studies on climate change and violent conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lifting water is crucial to irrigate agricultural terraces in the Mediterranean region. But the energy demand and emissions of modern forms of water pumping have increased, while many traditional water wheels, which lift water at zero direct emissions, have been abandoned. We explored the state of preservation and the potential for the deployment of traditional water wheels known as "norias" in the Ricote Valley of southeast Spain, where some are still in function, while also investigating the reasons for their widespread abandonment. A mixed method approach is used here to combine GIS-based methods, an expert survey, and a technological and socio-economic assessment of noria renovation. Our findings show that norias in the Ricote Valley have mostly been replaced by thermal-engine water-lifting technologies. The reactivation of traditional irrigation technologies, many of them lying dormant but still standing, could contribute to reducing the high energy demand and the resulting emissions of irrigation systems in the Mediterranean region and beyond. It was estimated by data extrapolation that 16 renovated norias included in our analysis can irrigate 140.3 ha in the Ricote Valley, for a total achievable power of 23.8 kW. To irrigate a similar surface applying diesel motor pumps would produce up to 148 tons of emissions/year and cost up to approx. 70,000 €/year based on a price of 1.25€/l diesel for a maximum of 8760 working hours/year. In the case of electric pumps, we estimate that up to 55 tons of emissions/year and costs up to approx. 48,000 €/year can be saved. Therefore, we argue that rediscovering traditional technologies has potential to contribute to achieving climate actions that reduce GHG emissions (Sustainable Development Goal 13). Moreover, these technologies provide multiple functions and services for a sustainable life on land (Sustainable Development Goal 15), which needs to be considered within a holistic approach. [Display omitted] • Norias are pre-industrial water wheels used for irrigation. • In Ricote Valley, 16 norias irrigated 140 ha with an estimated power of 23 kW. • Their renovation would allow zero-emission irrigation. • We estimate savings of up to 70,000€ and 148 t of CO 2 per year compared to diesel pumps. • Their preservation serves society, ecology and economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stocking rate and rangeland area are key variables to provide the livelihood of herders in different climatic zones. To evaluate the economic and ecological management of pastoral units, this study aims to determine the optimal economic size of pastoral units for livestock grazing use considering the ecological capacity of semi-arid rangelands in different climatic scenarios. Therefore, 12 pastoral units (an area of 47,355 ha) were selected in two climatic zones (summer and winter rangelands) in the Kalat region of Razavi Khorasan Province, Iran. By measuring forage production, carrying capacity was calculated. Based on the results, the costs of traditional livestock management in winter rangelands are higher than those of summer rangelands. Moreover, the current size of the assigned rangeland, especially the summer rangeland, is lower than that of the economic justification. The results emphasize that rangeland-based livestock husbandry cannot create a good livelihood for herders in the region, and it is necessary to pay special attention to other services and aspects, despite the existing ecological and socio-economic complexities. In this regard, providing multi-purpose rangeland use and useable technologies to better manage these areas is necessary to increase per capita household income and reduce the stocking rate in the region's rangelands. Ultimately, both increasing the level of available rangelands and reducing costs by applying new technology are required, as is the economic consideration of pastoral units by using rangelands for multiple purposes. • This study aimed to investigate economic assessment of pastoral units in different climatic zones. • Costs of traditional livestock management in winter rangeland are higher than those of summer rangeland. • The current size of the assigned rangeland is lower than that of the economic justification. • Rangeland-based livestock husbandry cannot create a good livelihood for herders in the region. • The ecological status of planned rangelands in terms of ecological indicators is better than unplanned ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop diversity is crucial for sustainable farmland ecosystems and global sustainability, and thus is a popular subject of research in ecological economics, agricultural science, and geography. Many studies have revealed the individual impacts of government policies or market changes on crop diversity. However, research on the combined effects of both government policy interventions and market-induced substitutions on changing crop diversity remains limited. This study clarifies the underlying mechanisms leading to changes in crop diversity in light of the joint effects of policies on grain subsidy implemented by the government to encourage monocropping as well as the market-induced forces that stimulate diversified planting. We used Hubei Province, one of the main grain-producing areas in Central China, as a case study. The foremost contribution of this study is its exploration of a global understanding of policy-oriented versus market-induced forces in driving changes in crop diversity at the regional level. Policy-oriented forces played a leading role in the past decline in diversity by restraining an increase in market-induced crop diversity. This leading role was reliant on encouraging certain crops through grain subsidies provided according to the farmers' targeted land use to maximize labor productivity. On the whole, strong implementation of policies on grain subsidy have challenged sustainable farmland ecosystems because of the resulting reduction in crop diversity. We argue that the relationship between top-down food security-oriented policies and bottom-up market-induced crop substitutions for a sustainable farmland ecosystem should be immediately and completely coordinated, while regionally differentiated cropping regulations should also be considered. • Market-induced crop substitution is able to enhance crop diversity. • The national grain subsidy policy encourages large-scale farming with mono-cropping. • The effect of market-induced crop substitution is strongly constrained by the national grain subsidy policy. • The relationship between food safety-oriented grain subsidy policies and market-induced crop substitution should be urgently coordinated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Our study links environmental impacts of climate change to major socio-economic and agricultural developments in North Africa. We jointly investigate climate projections, vulnerability, impacts, and options for adaptation. Precipitation in North Africa is likely to decrease between 10 and 20%, while temperatures are likely to rise between 2 and 3°C by 2050. This trend is most pronounced in the north-western parts of northern Africa as our own model results suggest. The combination of decreasing supply and strong population growth aggravates the stressed water situation in the region. We further compare the vulnerabilities, adaptive capacities and conflict implications of climate change in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. Climate change will likely have the strongest effect on Morocco where the agricultural sector is of high importance for the country''s economy and particularly for poor people. Our analysis of climate impacts and adaptation options in Morocco suggests that the agricultural incentives used in the past are inadequate to buffer drought effects. To increase resilience against climate change, agricultural policies should shift from maximizing agricultural output to stabilizing it. Our bio-economic model results further suggest a considerable potential of replacing firewood by electric energy to sustain pastoral productivity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Social network analysis is used to show that underlying systemic structure made war more likely to spread in 1914 than earlier in the century. The changing network density of three diffusion processes is seen as crucial-alliances, interstate rivalries, and territorial disputes. The findings show that the density of each of these factors increased in the system in varying degrees from 1900 to the end of 1913. How the three diffusion processes interacted with contiguity to make the local war between Austria-Hungary and Serbia spread to become a world war is explained both theoretically and historically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probability distributions for carbon burning, atmospheric CO2, and global average temperature are produced by time series calibration of models of utility optimization and carbon and heat balance using log-linear production functions. Population growth is used to calibrate a logistically evolving index of development that influences production efficiency. Energy production efficiency also includes a coefficient that decreases linearly with decreasing carbon intensity of energy production. This carbon intensity is a piecewise linear function of fossil carbon depletion. That function is calibrated against historical data and extrapolated by sampling a set of hypotheses about the impact on the carbon intensity of energy production of depleting fluid fossil fuel resources and increasing cumulative carbon emissions. Atmospheric carbon balance is determined by a first order differential equation with carbon use rates and cumulative carbon use as drivers. Atmospheric CO2 is a driver in a similar heat balance. Periodic corrections are included where required to make residuals between data and model results indistinguishable from independently and identically distributed normal distributions according to statistical tests on finite Fourier power spectrum amplitudes and nearest neighbor correlations. Asymptotic approach to a sustainable non-fossil energy production is followed for a global disaggregation into a tropical/developing and temperate/more-developed Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article region. The increase in the uncertainty of global average temperature increases nearly quadratically with the increase in the temperature from the present through the next two centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable entrepreneurship is a strategy for development, growth, and prosperity that has received the attention of researchers, especially in the fields of economic development and rural businesses. The present study aims to identify the sustainable entrepreneurship indicators in Iranian rural businesses using the Fuzzy Delphi method. The results derived from three phases of the Delphi technique introduced 87 indicators for sustainable entrepreneurship. However, considering the threshold, just 69 indicators were approved by the experts. In the sociocultural dimension, scholars pay special attention to the promotion of social trust and social altruism and empathy among the local people. In the economic dimension, indicators such as utilization of facilities, cost management of products and services for business stability, and market management had higher averages. Finally, major indicators of the ethical dimension include financial business transparency, ethics in using biological resources, and managing human resources. In general, the obtained results highlight the importance of determining the stability of indicators in rural entrepreneurship and the necessity of managers' and politicians' attention toward this sector. • The present study aimed to identify the sustainable entrepreneurship indicators in rural businesses. • The results showed that in the sociocultural dimension, scholars pay special attention to the promotion of social trust. • In the economic dimension, products and services cost management for business stability had higher averages. • Major ethical indicators were financial transparency in business and ethics in the use of biological resources. • The study recommended the importance of determining the stability of indicators in rural entrepreneurship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of urban population density (UPD) has attracted extensive attention from both policymakers and scholars because it can be used to indicate the sustainability of city growth. Substantial research considering urban areas as whole units has demonstrated a close relationship between urban land expansion and demographic urbanization. However, the impacts of the urban land-use structure (ULUS) on sustainable city growth from the perspective of UPD dynamics have largely been ignored. Based on the understanding of human–land interactions in the process of city evolution, we present a holistic theoretical framework for the impacts of changing ULUS on UPD dynamics. Taking 331 cities proper in China as the study objects, we found that the designation of urban land has mostly depended upon land substitution resulting from the high economic returns of land used for secondary and tertiary industries and residential purposes. This is induced by the increasing scarcity of urban land and people's primary requirements for the dwelling and employment functions of a city rather than its living-environment function. The results confirmed that the holistic theoretical framework is effective for understanding the impacts of changing ULUS on UPD dynamics, and that taking consideration of these impacts in the structural reform of urban land supply is significant for promoting sustainable city growth. This study also provides inspiration for understanding the uncertainties relating to sustainable city growth based on identification of city shrinkage and growth patterns. We discuss regionally differentiated policies relating to structural reform of urban land supply and strategies for coping with city shrinkage. • A holistic mechanism framework for the dynamics of urban population density (UPD) is presented. • A set of rules for identifying city shrinkage and growth were developed based on UPD dynamics. • Land-substitution models were established to measure spatiotemporal changes in urban land use structure (ULUS). • Designation of urban land was mostly induced by the high economic returns of land in China. • The impacts of ULUS on UPD are of significance for promoting sustainable city growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a watershed, disturbing land covers (LCs) are one of the most important factors in the balance and flow rate of water. This study aimed to monitor and model LC changes in the upstream of the Aras River Basin in Turkey over 1984, 2002, 2010 and 2016. The main ground to conduct such an analysis was to mitigate severe economic, social and ecological consequences driven by agricultural activities and dam construction along with probable climate change, which would decrease the water flow from the Aras River to Caspian Sea. The study approach consisted of four main steps: 1) producing LC maps using Landsat satellite images, 2) performing the change analysis, 3) identifying the change driver variables for each of the calibration period, and 4) identifying the most accurate scenario and predicting maps of the years 2026 and 2036 based on the calibration periods (i.e., 1984–2002 and 2002–2010) using the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Moreover, the net changes in each LC were studied as well the transition from one LC to another and the spatial pattern of these changes over a 32-year period. The results show the growth of agricultural, industrial and residential lands in the upstream during 1984–2016. This trend seems to be more critical in 2026 and 2036. The construction of small to medium sized dams and redirecting rivers in order to supply water for increasing agricultural lands and industrial/municipal areas will affect the quantity of water flowing to downstream. This decreasing trend in water flow of upstream areas will intensify the shortage of water used for agricultural, industrial and drinking purposes in downstream countries in future. This study suggests that the Aras River Basin, as one of the most important feeders of the Caspian Sea, needs more protection and monitoring programs. Likewise, similar studies must be conducted in Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan given these countries plan to preserve the quality and quantity of the Aras River. • We monitored LC in the Aras River Basin, as one of the most important feeders of Caspian Sea. • Trends and driver variables of LC changes was examined from 1984 until 2016. • The land change modeler was run in multiple scenarios for predicting LC in 2026 and 2036. • We detected extreme increases in water consumption LC i.e., agriculture and residential. • The Aras Basin trans -boundary countries must adopt a comprehensive plan for protection of the river. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]