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Abstract Promoting the deployment of forest-based drop-in and high blend biofuels is considered strategically important in Sweden but many aspects of the overall performance of the foremost production technologies are as yet unexamined. This paper evaluates the technology maturity, profitability, investment requirements, GHG performance and Swedish biofuel production potential of six commercially interesting forest-based biofuel production pathways. Significant heterogeneity in technology maturity was observed. Lack of technical demonstration in industrially representative scales renders the liquefaction-hydrotreatment route for drop-in biofuels less mature than its gasification-catalytic upgrading counterpart. It is a paradox that short-term priority being accorded to pathways with the lowest technology maturity. Nth-of-a-kind investments in (a) gasification-based methanol, (b) hydropyrolysis-based petrol/diesel, and (c) lignin depolymerization-based petrol/diesel were profitable for a range of plant sizes. The profitability of pulp mill-integrated small gasification units (<100 MW) goes against the common perception of gasification being economically feasible only in large scales. New low-cost options for debottlenecking production at recovery boiler-limited kraft mills appear worth investigating. GHG emission reductions ranged from 66 to 95%; a penalty was incurred for high consumption of natural gas-based hydrogen. Swedish biofuel production potentials ranged from 4 to 27 TWh/y but a more feasible upper limit is 12–15 TWh/y. Highlights • Multi-aspect evaluation of six integrated forest biofuel pathways is performed. • Both drop in and high blend fuels can be produced profitably from forest feedstocks. • Drop-in pathways prioritized currently are generally the least technologically mature. • Biofuels from pulp mill-integrated gasification can be profitable in smaller scales. • Swedish production potentials are significant and GHG performance mostly satisfactory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Forest-based biofuels are strategically important in forest-rich countries like Sweden but the technical performance of several promising production pathways is poorly documented. This study examines product yields and energy efficiencies in six commercially relevant forest-based "drop-in" and "high blend" biofuel production pathways by developing detailed spreadsheet energy balance models. The models are in turn based on pilot-scale performance data from the literature, supplemented with input from technology developers and experts. In most pathways, biofuel production is integrated with a market pulp mill and/or a crude oil refinery. Initial conversion is by pyrolysis, gasification or lignin depolymerization and intermediate products are upgraded by hydrotreatment or catalytic synthesis. While lignin oil (LO) hydrodeoxygenation had the highest expanded system efficiency, considerable uncertainty surrounds product yields owing to absence of suitable experimental data on LO upgrading. Co-feeding vacuum gas oil and fast pyrolysis oil in a fluidized catalytic cracker has a complex and uncertain effect on fossil yields, which requires further investigation. Co-locating bio-oil hydrotreatment at the refinery improves heat utilization, leading to higher system efficiencies. Explicit consideration of mill type and energy requirements is required to avoid performance misestimation as an assumption of energy surplus can confer a definite advantage. Highlights • Technical performance of six forest-based biofuel pathways is comparatively evaluated. • Lack of experimental bio-oil HDO and FCC data makes yield estimations challenging. • Integration with energy-efficient modern pulp mills benefits kraft lignin pathways. • Co-locating bio oil upgrading at oil refineries enables higher system efficiencies. • Integration effects must be included in technical performance evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The present paper introduces an integrated spatially explicit framework for assessing price impact on forestry markets in Sweden. The framework is based on the "soft-link" of a price determination model, the SpPDM model with the BeWhere Sweden model. The aim is to analyse the impacts of increased forest-based biofuel production for transportation within the Swedish context by 2030. To that effect, we develop scenarios analyses based on the simulations of successive biofuel production targets, under different assumptions concerning the competition intensity for forest biomass and the use of industrial by-products. The results suggest marginal impacts on the prices of forest biomass. The average across spatial-explicit prices varies from 0% to 2.8% across feedstocks and scenario types. However, the distribution of the spatial-explicit price impacts displays large variation, with price impacts reaching as high as 8.5%. We find that the pattern of spatial distribution of price impacts follows relatively well the spatial distribution of demand pressure. However, locations with the highest price impacts show a tendency of mismatch with the locations of the highest demand pressure (e.g. sawlogs). This is a counterintuitive conclusion compared to results from non-spatial economic models. The spatial-explicit structure of the framework developed, and its refined scale allows such results to be reported. Hence, from a policy-making perspective, careful analysis should be devoted to the locational linkages for forestry markets of increased biofuel production in Sweden. Highlights • An integrated, spatial approach for investigating price linkages for forestry markets in relation to biofuel production. • Increased biofuel production from forest biomass bears little impact on average prices in short to medium term in Sweden. • Market prices will tend to increase due to increased demand pressure, especially for harvesting residues vs. roundwood. • Policy-making should pay attention to the locational linkages with respect the spatial distribution of price impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fast pyrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass constitutes a promising technology to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The product, pyrolysis liquids, can either substitute heavy fuel oil directly, or be upgraded via e.g. hydroprocessing to diesel and petrol. This study presents a systematic evaluation of production costs and CO 2 mitigation potentials of different fast pyrolysis value chain configurations. The evaluation considers types of localisations, emissions from electricity and hydrogen production, biomass feedstocks, and final products. The resulting production costs were found to be in the range of 36–60 EUR/MWh for crude pyrolysis liquids, and 61–90 EUR/MWh upgraded to diesel and petrol. Industrial integration was found to be favoured. The CO 2 mitigation potential for the pyrolysis liquids was in the range of 187–282 t-CO 2 /GWh biomass. High variations were found when upgraded to diesel and petrol –best-case scenario resulted in a mitigation of 347 t-CO 2 /GWh biomass, while worst-case scenarios resulted in net CO 2 emissions. Favourable policy support, continued technology development, and/or increased fossil fuel prices are required for the technology to be adapted on an industrial scale. It was concluded that integration with existing industrial infrastructure can contribute to cost reductions and thus help enable the transformation of traditional forest industry into biorefineries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest-derived biofuels have been on the agenda for several decades. Despite extensive research and development efforts, forest biofuel concepts have nevertheless not yet been realized on any significant scale. The discrepancy between the expectations from the research community and the lack of momentum regarding biofuel production raises the question of if and how research results can be used to achieve such goals. Here, we report results from an interview study with the aim of evaluating how energy system models can be used to illustrate barriers and drivers for forest biofuels, with focus on Swedish conditions, using the Be Where model as case. The study is framed as an example of expertise, and problematizes how energy system models are interpreted among expected users. While the interviews revealed some general scepticism regarding models, and what kinds of questions they can answer, the belief was also expressed that increased complexity might be an advantage in terms of being able to accommodate more barriers against forest biofuels. The study illustrates the complexity of this policy area, where an energy system model can answer some, but never all, 'what if . . . ?' questions. The results reveal a need for reformation in energy system modelling in order to more explicitly make society the subject of the work, and also illustrate that the belief in expertise as a tool for consensus-building in decision-making should be questioned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents the development and use of an optimisation model suitable for analysis of biofuel production scenarios in the EU, with the aim of examining second generation biofuel production. Two policy instruments are considered – targeted biofuel support and a CO2 cost. The results show that over 3% of the total transport fuel demand can be met by second generation biofuels at a cost of approximately 65-73 EUR/MWh. With current energy prices, this demands biofuel support comparable to existing tax exemptions (around 30 EUR/MWh), or a CO2 cost of around 60 EUR/tCO2. Parameters having large effect on biofuel production include feedstock availability, fossil fuel price and capital costs. It is concluded that in order to avoid suboptimal energy systems, heat and electricity applications should also be included when evaluating optimal bioenergy use. It is also concluded that while forceful policies promoting biofuels may lead to a high biofuel share at reasonable costs, this is not a certain path towards maximised CO2 emission mitigation. Policies aiming to promote the use of bioenergy thus need to be carefully designed in order to avoid conflicts between different parts of the EU targets for renewable energy and CO2 emission mitigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper evaluates system aspects of biorefineries based on biomass gasification integrated with pulp and paper production. As a case the Billerud Karlsborg mill is used. Two biomass gasification concepts are considered: BIGDME (biomass integrated gasification dimethyl ether production) and BIGCC (biomass integrated gasification combined cycle). The systems analysis is made with respect to economic performance, global CO2 emissions and primary energy use. As reference cases, BIGDME and BIGCC integrated with district heating are considered. Biomass gasification is shown to be potentially profitable for the mill. The results are highly dependent on assumed energy market parameters, particularly policy support. With strong policies promoting biofuels or renewable electricity, the calculated opportunity to invest in a gasification-based biorefinery exceeds investment cost estimates from the literature. When integrated with district heating the BIGDME case performs better than the BIGCC case, which shows high sensitivity to heat price and annual operating time. The BIGCC cases show potential to contribute to decreased global CO2 emissions and energy use, which the BIGDME cases do not, mainly due to high biomass demand. As biomass is a limited resource, increased biomass use due to investments in gasification plants will lead to increased use of fossil fuels elsewhere in the system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper we show the effects of expanding the system when evaluating well-to-wheel (WTW) CO2 emissions for biomass-based transportation, to include the systems surrounding the biomass conversion system. Four different cases are considered: DME via black liquor gasification (BLG), methanol via gasification of solid biomass, lignocellulosic ethanol and electricity from a biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) used in a battery-powered electric vehicle (BPEV). All four cases are considered with as well as without carbon capture and storage (CCS). System expansion is used consistently for all flows. The results are compared with results from a conventional WTW study that only uses system expansion for certain co-product flows. It is shown that when expanding the system, biomass-based transportation does not necessarily contribute to decreased CO2 emissions and the results from this study in general indicate considerably lower CO2 mitigation potential than do the results from the conventional study used for comparison. It is shown that of particular importance are assumptions regarding future biomass use, as by expanding the system, future competition for biomass feedstock can be taken into account by assuming an alternative biomass usage. Assumptions regarding other surrounding systems, such as the transportation and the electricity systems are also shown to be of significance. Of the four studied cases without CCS, BIGCC with the electricity used in a BPEV is the only case that consistently shows a potential for CO2 reduction when alternative use of biomass is considered. Inclusion of CCS is not a guarantee for achieving CO2 reduction, and in general the system effects are equivalent or larger than the effects of CCS. DME from BLG generally shows the highest CO2 emission reduction potential for the biofuel cases. However, neither of these options for biomass-based transportation can alone meet the needs of the transport sector. Therefore, a broader palette of solutions, including different production routes, different fuels and possibly also CCS, will be needed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility of energy and phosphorus (P) fertilizer (PF) recovery from municipal sewage sludge (MSS) through incineration in new combustion plants. We evaluated the economic impact of five critical process design choices: (1) boiler type, (2) fuel (MSS mono-combustion/co-combustion with wheat straw), (3) production scale (10/100 MW), (4) products (heat, electricity, PF), and (5) ash destination. Aspen Plus modeling provided mass and energy balances of each technology scenario. The economic feasibility was evaluated by calculating the minimum selling price of the products, as well as the MSS gate fees required to reach profitability. The dependency on key boundary conditions (operating time, market prices, policy support) was also evaluated. The results showed a significant dependency on both energy and fertilizer market prices and on financial support in the form of an MSS gate fee. Heat was preferred over combined heat and power (CHP), which was feasible only on the largest scale (100 MW) at maximum annual operating time (8000 h/y). Co-combustion showed lower heat recovery cost (19–30 €/MWh) than mono-combustion (29–66 €/MWh) due to 25–35% lower energy demand and 17–25% higher fuel heating value. Co-combustion also showed promising performance for P recovery, as PF could be recovered without ash post-treatment and sold at a competitive price, and co-combustion could be applicable also in smaller cities. When implementing ash post-treatment, the final cost of ash-based PF was more than four times the price of commercial PF. In conclusion, investment in a new combustion plant for MSS treatment appears conditional to gate fees unless the boundary conditions would change significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biofuels and biochemicals play significant roles in the transition towards a fossil-free society. However, large-scale biorefineries are not yet cost-competitive with their fossil-fuel counterparts, and it is important to identify biorefinery concepts with high economic performance. For evaluating early-stage biorefinery concepts, one needs to consider not only the technical performance and process costs but also the economic performance of the full supply chain and the impacts on feedstock and product markets. This article presents and demonstrates a conceptual interdisciplinary framework that can constitute the basis for evaluations of the full supply-chain performance of biorefinery concepts. This framework considers the competition for biomass across sectors, assumes exogenous end-use product demand, and incorporates various geographical and technical constraints. The framework is demonstrated empirically through a case study of a sawmill-integrated biorefinery producing liquefied biomethane from forestry and forest industry residues. The case study results illustrate that acknowledging biomass market effects in the supply chain evaluation implies changes in both biomass prices and the allocation of biomass across sectors. The proposed framework should facilitate the identification of biorefinery concepts with a high economic performance which are robust to feedstock price changes caused by the increase in biomass demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long term time series of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation and electricity demand (load) provide important insights into the feasibility of fully renewable power systems. The coverage of energy statistics is usually too short or the temporal resolution too low to study effects related to interannual variability or the impact of climatic extreme events. We use time series simulated from climate data to assess the frequency, duration, and magnitude of extreme residual load events of two fully renewable power scenarios with a share of VRE generation (wind and solar PV) of about 50% for the case of Sweden. We define residual load as load – wind – PV – nuclear generation. Extreme residual load events are events that exceed the balancing or ramping capacities of the current power system. For our analysis, we use 29 years of simulated river runoff and wind and PV generation. Hourly load is derived from MERRA reanalysis temperature data by applying statistical models. Those time series are used along with historic capacity and ramping restrictions of hydro and thermal power plants in an optimization model to minimize extreme residual load events. Our analysis shows that even highly flexible power systems, as the Swedish one, are affected by climatic extreme events if they increase their VRE shares. Replacing current nuclear power capacities by wind power results on average in three extreme residual load events per year that exceed the current power system's flexibility. Additional PV generation capacities instead of wind increase the number of extreme residual load events by about 4%, as most events occur during the winter month when solar generation is close to zero and thus not able to counterbalance low wind events. Contrarily, overproduction and the need to curtail VRE generation become more pressing with higher shares of PV. In the discussion we highlight measures that could provide additional balancing capabilities to cope with the more frequent and severe residual load events in a fully renewable power system with high shares of VRE generation. • Load during winter is negatively correlated with wind power and natural river runoff. • Annual residual loads vary between 51 and 72 TWh in a fully renewable power system. • Two out of three years exceed the balancing capacities of the current power system. • The longest extreme residual load event lasts 18 h with a maximum lack of capacity of 4 GW. • Additional flexibility measures can avoid loss of load events in fully renewable power systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Previous research has shown that alkali addition has operational advantages in entrained flow biomass gasification and allows for capture of up to 90% of the biomass sulfur in the slag phase. The resultant low-sulfur content syngas can create new possibilities for syngas cleaning processes. The aim was to assess the techno-economic performance of biofuel production via gasification of alkali impregnated biomass using a novel gas cleaning system comprised of (i) entrained flow catalytic gasification with in situ sulfur removal, (ii) further sulfur removal using a zinc bed, (iii) tar removal using a carbon filter, and (iv) CO 2 reduction with zeolite membranes, in comparison to the expensive acid gas removal system (Rectisol technology). The results show that alkali impregnation increases methanol production allowing for selling prices similar to biofuel production from non-impregnated biomass. It was concluded that the methanol production using the novel cleaning system is comparable to the Rectisol technology in terms of energy efficiency, while showing an economic advantage derived from a methanol selling price reduction of 2–6 €/MWh. The results showed a high level of robustness to changes related to prices and operation. Methanol selling prices could be further reduced by choosing low sulfur content feedstocks. Highlights • Alkali impregnation leads to a syngas with low sulfur content. • Opportunities to reduce biofuel production costs using a new syngas cleaning system. • The new syngas cleaning has economic advantages over the Rectisol technology. • The economic advantage can be improved by using low sulfur biomass feedstocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This work investigates a power dispatch system that aims to supply the power demand of the EU and Western Balkans (EUWB) based on low-carbon generation units, enabled by the expansion of biomass, solar, and wind based electricity. A spatially explicit techno-economic optimization tool simulates the EUWB power sector to explore the dispatch of new renewable electricity capacity on a EUWB scale, under ambitious CO 2 emission policies. The results show that utility-scale deployment of renewable electricity is feasible and can contribute about 9–39% of the total generation mix, for a carbon price range of 0–200 €/tCO 2 and with the existing capacities of the cross-border transmission network. Even without any explicit carbon incentive (carbon price of 0 €/tCO 2), more than 35% of the variable power in the most ambitious CO 2 mitigation scenario (carbon price of 200 €/tCO 2) would be economically feasible to deploy. Spatial assessment of bio-electricity potential (based on forest and agriculture feedstock) showed limited presence in the optimal generation mix (0–6%), marginalizing its effect as baseload. Expansion of the existing cross-border transmission capacities helps even out the variability of solar and wind technologies, but may also result in lower installed RE capacity in favor of state-of-the-art natural gas with relatively low sensitivity to increasing carbon taxes. A sensitivity analysis of the investment cost, even under a low-investment scenario and at the high end of the CO 2 price range, showed natural gas remains at around 11% of the total generation, emphasizing how costly it would be to achieve the final percentages toward a 100% renewable system. Highlights • A case study on decarbonizing the EU and Western Balkans power sector is performed. • As cost of variable renewables drops, decarbonization proceed regardless of CO 2 policies. • Sensitivity analysis about the impact of cross-border transmission capacity expansion. • Final percentages toward a 100% renewable electricity likely to be costly to achieve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research shows that alkali addition in entrained flow biomass gasification can increase char conversion and decrease tar and soot formation through catalysis. This paper investigates two other potential benefits of alkali addition: increased slag flowability and in situ sulfur capture. Thermodynamic equilibrium calculations show that addition of 2–8% alkali catalyst to biomass completely changes the chemical domain of the gasifier slag phase to an alkali carbonate melt with low viscosity. This can increase feedstock flexibility and improve the operability of an entrained flow biomass gasification process. The alkali carbonate melt also leads to up to 90% sulfur capture through the formation of alkali sulfides. The resulting reduced syngas sulfur content can potentially simplify gas cleaning required for catalytic biofuel production. Alkali catalyst recovery and recycling is a precondition for the economic feasibility of the proposed process and is effected through a wet quench. It is shown that the addition of Zn for sulfur precipitation in the alkali recovery loop enables the separation of S, Ca and Mg from the recycle. For high Si and Cl biomass feedstocks, an alternative separation technology for these elements may be required to avoid build-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]