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The mass assembly history (MAH) of dark matter haloes plays a crucial role in shaping the formation and evolution of galaxies. MAHs are used extensively in semi-analytic and empirical models of galaxy formation, yet current analytic methods to generate them are inaccurate and unable to capture their relationship with the halo internal structure and large-scale environment. This paper introduces florah (FLOw-based Recurrent model for Assembly Histories), a machine-learning framework for generating assembly histories of ensembles of dark matter haloes. We train florah on the assembly histories from the Gadget at Ultra-high Redshift with Extra Fine Time-steps and vsmdpl N -body simulations and demonstrate its ability to recover key properties such as the time evolution of mass and concentration. We obtain similar results for the galaxy stellar mass versus halo mass relation and its residuals when we run the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model on florah -generated assembly histories and halo formation histories extracted from an N -body simulation. We further show that florah also reproduces the dependence of clustering on properties other than mass (assembly bias), which is not captured by other analytic methods. By combining multiple networks trained on a suite of simulations with different redshift ranges and mass resolutions, we are able to construct accurate main progenitor branches with a wide dynamic mass range from |$z=0$| up to an ultra-high redshift |$z \approx 20$|⁠ , currently far beyond that of a single N -body simulation. florah is the first step towards a machine learning-based framework for planting full merger trees; this will enable the exploration of different galaxy formation scenarios with great computational efficiency at unprecedented accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dark matter halo demographics and assembly histories are a manifestation of cosmological structure formation and have profound implications for the formation and evolution of galaxies. In particular, merger trees provide fundamental input for several modelling techniques, such as semi-analytic models (SAMs), sub-halo abundance matching (SHAM), and decorated halo occupation distribution models. Motivated by the new ultra-high-redshift (z ≳ 10) frontier enabled by JWST , we present a new suite of Gadget at Ultrahigh Redshift with Extra-Fine Timesteps (gureft) dark matter-only cosmological simulations that are carefully designed to capture halo merger histories and structural properties in the ultra- z universe. The simulation suite consists of four 10243-particle simulations with box sizes of 5, 15, 35, and 90 Mpc h−1, each with 170 snapshots stored between 40 ≥ z ≥ 6. With the unprecedented number of available snapshots and strategically chosen dynamic range covered by these boxes, gureft uncovers the emerging dark matter halo populations and their assembly histories in the earliest epochs of cosmic history. In this work, we present the halo mass functions (HMF) between z ∼ 20 and 6 down to log (M vir/M⊙) ∼ 5, and show that at high redshift, these robust HMFs can differ substantially from commonly used analytic approximations or older fitting functions in the literature. We also present key physical properties of the ultra-high z halo population, such as concentration and spin, as well as their mass growth and merger rates, and again provide updated fitting functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a spectroscopic survey of Ly α emitters in the Extended Groth Strip (EGS) field, targeting the regime near the Epoch of Reionization. Using Keck/DEep Imaging Multi-Object Spectrograph, we observed 947 high- z candidates with photometric redshifts from 3 < z phot < 7 and down to an H -band (Hubble Space Telescope /Wide Field Camera 3 F160W) magnitude limit of <27.5. Observations were taken over the course of eight nights, with integration times ranging from 4 to 7.8 h. Our survey secured 137 unique redshifts, 126 of which are Ly α emitters at 2.8 < z < 6.3 with a mean redshift of |$\overline{z} = 4.3$|⁠. We provide a comprehensive redshift catalogue for our targets, as well as the reduced one- and two-dimensional spectra for each object. These observations will provide an important auxiliary data set for the JWST Directors Discretionary Early Release Science programme the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey, which recently completed near- and mid-infrared imaging and spectroscopy of galaxies in the EGS field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A substantial number of ultra-high redshift (8 ≲ z ≲ 17) galaxy candidates have been detected with JWST, posing the question: Are these observational results surprising in the context of current galaxy formation models? We address this question using the well-established Santa Cruz semi-analytic models, implemented within merger trees from the new suite of cosmological N -body simulations gureft , which were carefully designed for ultra-high redshift studies. Using our fiducial models calibrated at z  = 0, we present predictions for stellar mass functions, rest-frame UV luminosity functions, and various scaling relations. We find that our (dust-free) models predict galaxy number densities at z ∼ 11 (z ∼ 13) that are an order of magnitude (a factor of ∼30) lower than the observational estimates. We estimate the uncertainty in the observed number densities due to cosmic variance, and find that it leads to a fractional error of ∼20–30 per cent at z  = 11 (∼30–80  per cent at z  = 14) for a 100 arcmin2 field. We explore which processes in our models are most likely to be rate-limiting for the formation of luminous galaxies at these early epochs, considering the halo formation rate, gas cooling, star formation, and stellar feedback, and conclude that it is mainly efficient stellar-driven winds. We find that a modest boost of a factor of ∼4 to the UV luminosities, which could arise from a top-heavy stellar initial mass function, would bring our current models into agreement with the observations. Adding a stochastic component to the UV luminosity can also reconcile our results with the observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EXperiment for Cryogenic Large-Aperture Intensity Mapping (EXCLAIM) is a balloon-borne cryogenic telescope that will survey the spectrum of diffuse emission from both the Milky Way and the cosmic web to probe star formation, the interstellar medium, and galaxy evolution across cosmic time. EXCLAIM's primary extragalactic science survey maps 305 deg2 along the celestial equator with an R  = 512 spectrometer over the frequency range ν = 420 − 540 GHz, targeting emission of the [C  ii ] line over redshifts 2.5 < z < 3.5 and several CO lines for z < 1. Cross-correlation with galaxy redshift catalogues isolates line emission from the large-scale structure at target redshifts. In this paper, we forecast the sensitivity for both the two-point and conditional one-point cross-correlation. We predict that EXCLAIM will detect both the [C  ii ]-QSO cross-power spectrum and the conditional voxel intensity distribution (CVID) at various redshifts under a broad range of [C  ii ] intensity models, allowing it to differentiate among these models in the literature. These forecasts for the power spectra include the effects of line interlopers and continuum foreground contamination. We then convert the joint [C  ii ] constraints from both the cross-power spectrum and the CVID into constraints on the [C  ii ] halo luminosity–mass relation |$L_\mathrm{[C\, \small {II}]}(M)$| model parameters and the star formation rate density (SFRD) from [C  ii ] emission. We also develop sensitivity estimates for CO, showing the ability to differentiate between models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope , NASA's next flagship observatory, will redefine deep-field galaxy survey with a field of view two orders of magnitude larger than Hubble and an angular resolution of matching quality. These future deep-wide galaxy surveys necessitate new simulations to forecast their scientific output and to optimize survey strategies. In this work, we present five realizations of 2-deg2 light cones, containing a total of ≳25 million simulated galaxies with −16 ≳ M UV ≳ −25 spanning z ∼ 0 to 10. This data set enables a new set of experiments with the impacts of survey size on the derived galaxy formation and cosmological constraints. The intrinsic and observable galaxy properties are predicted using a well-established, physics-based semi-analytic modelling approach. We provide forecasts for number density, cosmic SFR, field-to-field variance, and angular two-point correlation functions, and demonstrate how the future wide-field surveys will be able to improve these measurements relative to current generation surveys. We also present a comparison between these light cones and others that have been constructed with empirical models. The mock light cones are designed to facilitate the exploration of multi-instrument synergies and connecting with current generation instruments and legacy surveys. In addition to Roman , we also provide photometry for a number of other instruments on upcoming facilities, including Euclid and Rubin, as well as the instruments, that are part of many legacy surveys. Full object catalogues and data tables for the results presented in this work are made available through a web-based, interactive portal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present and analyse a series of synthetic galaxy survey fields based on the IllustrisTNG simulation suite. With the IllustrisTNG public data release and JupyterLab service, we generated a set of 12 light-cone catalogues covering areas from 5 to 365 square arcmin, similar to several JWST Cycle 1 programs, including JADES, CEERS, PRIMER, and NGDEEP. From these catalogues, we queried the public application programming interface to generate simple mock images in a series of broad-band filters used by JWST -NIRCam and the Hubble Space Telescope cameras. This procedure generates wide-area simulated mosaic images that can support investigating the predicted evolution of galaxies alongside real data. Using these mocks, we demonstrate a few simple science cases, including morphological evolution and close pair selection. We publicly release the catalogues and mock images through MAST, along with the code used to generate these projects, so that the astrophysics community can use these products in their scientific analyses of JWST deep field observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the first results from applying the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model (SAM) for galaxy formation on merger trees extracted from a dark matter only version of the IllustrisTNG (TNG) simulations. We carry out a statistical comparison between the predictions of the Santa Cruz SAM and TNG for a subset of central galaxy properties at z = 0 with a focus on stellar mass, cold and hot gas mass, star formation rate (SFR), and black hole (BH) mass. We find fairly good agreement between the mean predictions of the two methods for stellar mass functions and the stellar mass versus halo mass (SMHM) relation, and qualitatively good agreement between the SFR or cold gas mass versus stellar mass relation and quenched fraction as a function of stellar mass There are greater differences between the predictions for hot (circumgalactic) gas mass and BH mass as a function of halo mass. Going beyond the mean relations, we also compare the dispersion in the predicted scaling relations, and the correlation in residuals on a halo-by-halo basis between halo mass and galaxy property scaling relations. Intriguingly, we find similar correlations between residuals in SMHM in the SAM and in TNG, suggesting that these relations may be shaped by similar physical processes. Other scaling relations do not show significant correlations in the residuals, indicating that the physics implementations in the SAM and TNG are significantly different. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In anticipation of the new era of high-redshift exploration marked by the commissioning of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), we present two sets of galaxy catalogues that are designed to aid the planning and interpretation of observing programs. We provide a set of 40 wide-field light-cones with footprints spanning approximately ∼1000 arcmin2 containing galaxies up to z  = 10, and a new set of eight ultradeep light-cones with 132 arcmin2 footprints, containing galaxies up to z ∼ 12 down to the magnitudes expected to be reached in the deepest JWST surveys. These mock light-cones are extracted from dissipationless N -body simulations and populated with galaxies using the well-established, computationally efficient Santa Cruz semi-analytic model for galaxy formation. We provide a wide range of predicted physical properties, and simulated photometry from Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and many other instruments. We explore the predicted counts and luminosity functions and angular two-point correlation functions for galaxies in these simulated light-cones. We also explore the predicted field-to-field variance using multiple light-cone realizations. We find that these light-cones reproduce the available measurements of observed clustering from 0.2 ≲ z ≲ 7.5 very well. We provide predictions for galaxy clustering at high redshift that may be obtained from future JWST observations. All of the light-cones presented here are made available through a web-based interactive data release portal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stochastic order redshift technique (sort) is a simple, efficient, and robust method to improve cosmological redshift measurements. The method relies upon having a small (∼10 per cent) reference sample of high-quality redshifts. Within pencil-beam-like sub-volumes surrounding each galaxy, we use the precise d N /d z distribution of the reference sample to recover new redshifts and assign them one-to-one to galaxies such that the original rank order of redshifts is preserved. Preserving the rank order is motivated by the fact that random variables drawn from Gaussian probability density functions with different means but equal standard deviations satisfy stochastic ordering. This process is repeated for sub-volumes surrounding each galaxy in the survey. This results in every galaxy being assigned multiple 'recovered' redshifts from which a new redshift estimate is determined. An earlier paper applied sort to a mock Sloan Digital Sky Survey at z ≲ 0.2 and accurately recovered the two-point correlation function (2PCF) on scales ≳ 4  h −1Mpc. In this paper, we test the performance of sort in surveys spanning the redshift range 0.75 < z < 2.25. We used two mock surveys extracted from the Small MultiDark–Planck and Bolshoi–Planck N -body simulations with dark matter haloes that were populated by the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model. We find that sort overall improves redshift estimates, accurately recovers the redshift-space 2PCF ξ(s) on scales ≳ 2.5  h −1Mpc, and provides improved local density estimates in regions of average or higher density, which may allow for improved understanding of how galaxy properties relate to their environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) forming in the early universe are thought to be the primary source of hard ionizing photons contributing to the reionization of intergalactic helium. However, the number density and spectral properties of high-redshift AGN remain largely unconstrained. In this work, we make use of physically informed models calibrated with a wide variety of available observations to provide estimates for the role of AGN throughout the Epoch of Reionization. We present AGN luminosity functions in various bands between z  = 2 and 7 predicted by the well-established Santa Cruz semi-analytic model, which includes modelling of black hole accretion and AGN feedback. We then combine the predicted AGN populations with a physical spectral model for self-consistent estimates of ionizing photon production rates, which depend on the mass and accretion rate of the accreting supermassive black hole. We then couple the predicted comoving ionizing emissivity with an analytic model to compute the subsequent reionization history of intergalactic helium and hydrogen. This work demonstrates the potential of coupling physically motivated analytic or semi-analytic techniques to capture multiscale physical processes across a vast range of scales (here, from AGN accretion discs to cosmological scales). Our physical model predicts an intrinsic ionizing photon budget well above many of the estimates in the literature, meaning that helium reionization can comfortably be accomplished even with a relatively low escape fraction. We also make predictions for the AGN populations that are expected to be detected in future James Webb Space Telescope surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present mock catalogues created to support the interpretation of the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS). We extract haloes along past light-cones from the Bolshoi Planck dissipationless N-body simulations and populate these haloes with galaxies using two different independently developed semi-analytic models of galaxy formation and the empirical model universemachine. Our mock catalogues have geometries that encompass the footprints of observations associated with the five CANDELS fields. In order to allow field-to-field variance to be explored, we have created eight realizations of each field. In this paper, we present comparisons with observable global galaxy properties, including counts in observed frame bands, luminosity functions, colour–magnitude distributions and colour–colour distributions. We additionally present comparisons with physical galaxy parameters derived from SED fitting for the CANDELS observations, such as stellar masses and star formation rates. We find relatively good agreement between the model predictions and CANDELS observations for luminosity and stellar mass functions. We find poorer agreement for colours and star formation rate distributions. All of the mock light-cones as well as curated 'theory friendly' versions of the observational CANDELS catalogues are made available through a web-based data hub. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to observe galaxies at z > 10 that are presently inaccessible. Here, we use a self-consistent empirical model, the universemachine , to generate mock galaxy catalogues and light-cones over the redshift range z = 0−15. These data include realistic galaxy properties (stellar masses, star formation rates, and UV luminosities), galaxy–halo relationships, and galaxy–galaxy clustering. Mock observables are also provided for different model parameters spanning observational uncertainties at z < 10. We predict that Cycle 1 JWST surveys will very likely detect galaxies with M * > 107 M⊙ and/or M 1500 < −17 out to at least z ∼ 13.5. Number density uncertainties at z > 12 expand dramatically, so efforts to detect z > 12 galaxies will provide the most valuable constraints on galaxy formation models. The faint-end slopes of the stellar mass/luminosity functions at a given mass/luminosity threshold steepen as redshift increases. This is because observable galaxies are hosted by haloes in the exponentially falling regime of the halo mass function at high redshifts. Hence, these faint-end slopes are robustly predicted to become shallower below current observable limits (M * < 107 M⊙ or M 1500 > −17). For reionization models, extrapolating luminosity functions with a constant faint-end slope from M 1500 = −17 down to M 1500 = −12 gives the most reasonable upper limit for the total UV luminosity and cosmic star formation rate up to z ∼ 12. We compare to three other empirical models and one semi-analytic model, showing that the range of predicted observables from our approach encompasses predictions from other techniques. Public catalogues and light-cones for common fields are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The James Webb Space Telescope is expected to enable transformational progress in studying galaxy populations in the very early Universe, during the epoch of reionization. A critical parameter for understanding the sources that reionized the Universe is the Lyman-continuum production efficiency, ξion, defined as the rate of production of ionizing photons divided by the intrinsic UV luminosity. In this work, we combine self-consistent star formation and chemical enrichment histories predicted by semi-analytic models of galaxy formation with stellar population synthesis (SPS) models to predict the expected dependence of ξion on galaxy properties and cosmic epoch from z = 4–10. We then explore the sensitivity of the production rate of ionizing photons, |$\dot{N}_\text{ion}$|⁠ , to the choice of SPS model and the treatment of stellar feedback in our galaxy formation model. We compare our results to those of other simulations, constraints from empirical models, and observations. We find that adopting SPS models that include binary stars predict about a factor of 2 more ionizing radiation than models that only assume single stellar populations. We find that UV-faint, low-mass galaxies have values of ξion about 0.25 dex higher than those of more massive galaxies, but find weak evolution with cosmic time, about 0.2 dex from z ∼ 12–4 at fixed rest-UV luminosity. We provide predictions of |$\dot{N}_\text{ion}$| as a function of M h and a number of other galaxy properties. All results presented in this work are available at https://www.simonsfoundation.org/semi-analytic-forecasts-for-jwst/. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long anticipated James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will be able to directly detect large samples of galaxies at very high redshift. Using the well-established, computationally efficient Santa Cruz semi-analytic model, with recently implemented multiphase gas partitioning, and H2-based star formation recipes, we make predictions for a wide variety of galaxy properties for galaxy populations at z  = 4–10. In this work, we provide forecasts for the physical properties of high-redshift galaxies and links to their photometric properties. With physical parameters calibrated only to z ∼ 0 observations, our model predictions are in good agreement with current observational constraints on stellar mass and star formation rate distribution functions up to z ∼ 8. We also provide predictions representing wide, deep, and lensed JWST survey configurations. We study the redshift evolution of key galaxy properties and the scaling relations among them. Taking advantage of our models' high computational efficiency, we study the impact of systematically varying the model parameters. All distribution functions and scaling relations presented in this work are available at https://www.simonsfoundation.org/semi-analytic-forecasts-for-jwst/. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In anticipation of the upcoming deployment of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), we present high-redshift predictions by the well-established Santa Cruz semi-analytic model. We update the models by re-calibrating them after adopting cosmological parameters consistent with recent constraints from Planck. We provide predictions for rest-frame UV luminosity functions for galaxy populations over a wide range of M UV from ∼−6 to ∼−24 between |$z$|  = 4–10. In addition, we present the corresponding predictions for observed-frame galaxy number counts in different redshift bins in the full set of NIRCam filters. We provide predictions of the quantitative effect on these observables of varying the physical recipes implemented in the models, such as the molecular gas depletion time (star formation efficiency), scalings or the scalings of outflow rates driven by stars, and supernovae with galaxy circular velocity. Based on these results, we discuss what may be learned about the physical processes that shape galaxy formation from JWST observations of galaxy number densities at different intrinsic luminosities. All data tables for the results presented in this work are available at https://www.simonsfoundation.org/semi-analytic-forecasts-for-jwst/. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]