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The Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) is marked by a sudden δ18 O excursion occurring in two distinct phases approximately 500 kyr apart. These phases signal a shift from the warm middle to late Eocene greenhouse climate to cooler conditions, with global surface air temperatures decreasing by 3–5 °C and the emergence of the first continent-wide Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). While ice sheet modelling suggests that ice sheet growth can be triggered by declining p CO2, it remains unclear how this transition was initiated, particularly the first growth phase that appears to be related to oceanic and atmospheric cooling rather than ice sheet growth. Recent climate model simulations of the late Eocene show improved accuracy but depict climatic conditions that are not conducive to the survival of incipient ice sheets throughout the summer season. This study therefore examines whether it is plausible to develop ice sheets of sufficient scale to trigger the feedback mechanisms required to disrupt the atmospheric regime above the Antarctic continent during warm and moist late Eocene summers and establish more favourable conditions for ice expansion. We aim to assess the sustainability of an incipient AIS under varying radiative, orbital and cryospheric forcing. To do so, we evaluate Community Earth System Model 1.0.5 simulations, using a 38 Ma geographical and topographical reconstruction, considering different radiative and orbital forcings. The climatic conditions prevailing during (and leading up to) the EOT can be characterised as extremely seasonal and monsoon-like, featuring a short yet intense summer period and contrasting cold winters. A narrow convergence zone with moist convection around the region with high sub-cloud equivalent potential temperature exhibits a ring-like structure, advecting moist surface air from the Southern Ocean in both summer and winter. This advection leads to high values of moist static energy and subsequent precipitation in coastal regions. Paradoxically, this atmospheric regime – particularly its coastal precipitation in winter – appears to be necessary for the sustenance of the moderately sized regional ice sheets we imposed on the continent, contrary to our assumption that these ice sheets would disrupt the atmospheric regime. This underscores a hysteresis effect for regional ice sheets on the Antarctic continent, suggesting the potential for a significant volume of ice on the continent without imminent full glaciation prior to the EOT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element in the Earth system due to possible multiple (stable) equilibria. Here, we investigate the multiple equilibria window of the AMOC within a coupled ocean circulation–carbon cycle box model. We show that adding couplings between the ocean circulation and the carbon cycle model affects the multiple equilibria window of the AMOC. Increasing the total carbon content of the system widens the multiple equilibria window of the AMOC, since higher-atmospheric p CO2 values are accompanied by stronger freshwater forcing over the Atlantic Ocean. The important mechanisms behind the increase in the multiple equilibria window are the balance between the riverine source and the sediment sink of carbon and the sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater forcing over the Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest that changes in the marine carbon cycle can influence AMOC stability in future climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene is the most recent geological period with similar atmospheric CO2 concentration to the present day and similar surface temperatures to those projected at the end of this century for a moderate warming scenario. While not a perfect analogue, the mid-Pliocene can be used to study the functioning of the Earth system under similar forcings to a near future, especially regarding features in the climate system for which uncertainties exist in future projections. According to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), the variability in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was suppressed. In this study, we investigate how teleconnections of ENSO, specifically variability in the North Pacific atmosphere, respond to a suppressed ENSO according to PlioMIP2. The multi-model mean (MMM) shows a similar sea-level pressure (SLP) variability in the Aleutian Low (AL) in the mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial, but a per-model view reveals that the change in AL variability is related to the change in ENSO variability. Even though ENSO is suppressed, the teleconnection between ENSO sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies, tropical precipitation, and North Pacific SLP anomalies is quite robust in the mid-Pliocene. We split AL variability in a part that is ENSO-related, and a residual variability which is related to internal stochastic variability, and find that the change in ENSO-related AL variability is strongly related to the change in ENSO variability itself, while the change in residual AL variability is unrelated to ENSO change. Since the internal atmospheric variability, which is the dominant forcing of the AL variability, is largely unchanged, we are able to understand that the AL variability is largely similar even though ENSO variability is suppressed. We find that the specific change in ENSO and AL variability depends on both the model equilibrium climate sensitivity and Earth system sensitivity. Finally, we present a perspective of (extra-)tropical Pacific variability in PlioMIP2, combining our results with literature findings on changes in the tropical mean climate and in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has recently been categorized as a core tipping element as, under climate change, it is believed to be prone to critical transition implying drastic consequences on a planetary scale. Moreover, the AMOC is strongly coupled to polar ice sheets via meltwater fluxes. On the one hand, most studies agree on the fact that a collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet would result in a weakening of AMOC. On the other hand, the consequences of a collapse of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet are less well understood. However, some studies suggest that meltwater originating from the Southern Hemisphere is able to stabilize the AMOC. Using a conceptual model of the AMOC and a minimal parameterization of ice sheet collapse, we investigate the origin and relevance of this stabilization effect in both the deterministic and stochastic cases. While a substantial stabilization is found in both cases, we find that rate- and noise-induced effects have substantial impact on the AMOC stability, as those imply that leaving the AMOC bistable regime is neither necessary nor sufficient for the AMOC to tip. Also, we find that rate-induced effects tend to allow a stabilization of the AMOC in cases where the peak of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet meltwater flux occurs before the peak of the Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and climate regulation. Using results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Southern Ocean conditions during the mPWP with respect to the pre-industrial period. We find that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Southern Ocean is 2.8 °C, while global mean SST warming is 2.4 °C. The enhanced warming is strongly tied to a dramatic decrease in sea ice cover over the mPWP Southern Ocean. We also see a freshening of the ocean (sub)surface, driven by an increase in precipitation over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The warmer and fresher surface leads to a highly stratified Southern Ocean that can be related to weakening of the deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show that the decrease in sea ice cover and enhanced warming is largely a consequence of the reduction in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In addition, the mPWP geographic boundary conditions are responsible for approximately half of the increase in mPWP SST warming, sea ice loss, precipitation, and stratification increase over the Southern Ocean. From these results, we conclude that a strongly reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mPWP has a substantial influence on the state of the Southern Ocean and exacerbates the changes that are induced by a higher CO 2 concentration alone. This is relevant for the long-term future of the Southern Ocean, as we expect melting of the western Antarctic Ice Sheet in the future, an effect that is not currently taken into account in future projections by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘ C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ∘ C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has reccently been categorised as core tipping element, for it is believed to be prone to critical transition under climate change, implying drastic consequences on a planetary scale. Moreover, the AMOC is strongly coupled to polar ice sheets via meltwater fluxes. On one hand, most studies agree on the fact that a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet would result in a weakening of AMOC. On the other hand, the consequences of a collapse of the West Antarctica ice sheet are less well understood. However, some studies suggest that meltwater originating from the Southern Hemisphere is able to stabilize the AMOC. Using a conceptual model of the AMOC and a minimal parameterization of ice sheet collapse, we investigate the origin and relevance of this stabilization effect in both the deterministic and stochastic cases. While a substantial stabilization is found in both cases, we find that important rate and noise-induced effects result in bifurcation-induced tipping approaches to be inaccurate for predicting the AMOC stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element in the Earth System due to possible multiple (stable) equilibria. Here, we investigate the multiple equilibria window of the AMOC within a coupled ocean circulation-carbon cycle box model. We show that adding couplings between the ocean circulation and the carbon cycle model affects the multiple equilibria window of the AMOC. Increasing the total carbon content of the system widens the multiple equilibria window of the AMOC, since higher atmospheric pCO2 values are accompanied by stronger freshwater forcing over the Atlantic Ocean. The important mechanisms behind the increase of the multiple equilibria window are the balance between the riverine source and the sediment sink of carbon and the sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater forcing over the Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest that changes in the marine carbon cycle can influence AMOC stability in future climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the mid-Pliocene (3.264-3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm and the Antarctic ice sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and climate regulation. Using results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Southern Ocean conditions during the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period. We find that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Southern Ocean is 2.8°C, while global mean SST warming is 2.4°C. The enhanced warming is strongly tied to a dramatic decrease in sea-ice cover over the mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean. We also see a freshening of the ocean (sub)surface, driven by an increase in precipitation over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The warmer and fresher surface leads to a highly stratified Southern Ocean, that can be related to weakening of the deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show that the decrease in sea-ice cover and enhanced warming is largely a consequence of the reduction of the Antarctic ice sheet. In addition, the mid-Pliocene geographic boundary conditions are responsible for approximately half of the increase in mid-Pliocene SST warming, sea ice loss, precipitation and stratification increase over the Southern Ocean. From these results, we conclude that a strongly reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid- Pliocene has a substantial influence on the state of the mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean and exacerbates the changes that are induced by a higher CO2 concentration alone. This is relevant for the long-term future of the Southern Ocean, as we expect melting of the western Antarctic ice sheet in the future, an effect that is not currently taken into account in future projections by CMIP ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. Studies of how permafrost responded historically during Earth’s past warm periods are helpful in exploring potential future permafrost behavior and to evaluate the uncertainty of future permafrost change projections. Here, we combine a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate the near‐surface (~3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, ~3.264 to 3.025 Ma). This period shares similarities with the projected future climate. Constrained by proxy-based surface air temperature records, our simulations demonstrate that near‐surface permafrost was highly spatially restricted during the mPWP and was 93 ± 3% smaller than the preindustrial extent. Near‐surface permafrost was present only in the eastern Siberian uplands, Canadian high Arctic Archipelago, and northernmost Greenland. The simulations are similar to near‐surface permafrost changes projected for the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and provide a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of global mean near‐surface air temperature (global SAT) for the Cenozoic era rely largely on paleo‐proxy data of deep‐sea temperature (DST), with the assumption that changes in global SAT covary with changes in the global mean deep‐sea temperature (global DST) and global mean sea‐surface temperature (global SST). We tested the validity of this assumption by analyzing the relationship between global SST, SAT, and DST using 25 different model simulations from the Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project simulating the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) with varying CO2 levels. Similar to the modern situation, we find limited spatial variability in DST, indicating that local DST estimates can be regarded as a first order representative of global DST. In line with previously assumed relationships, linear regression analysis indicates that both global DST and SAT respond stronger to changes in atmospheric CO2 than global SST by a similar factor. Consequently, this model‐based analysis validates the assumption that changes in global DST can be used to estimate changes in global SAT during the early Cenozoic. Paleo‐proxy estimates of global DST, SST, and SAT during EECO show the best fit with model simulations with a 1,680 ppm atmospheric CO2 level. This matches paleo‐proxies of EECO atmospheric CO2, indicating a good fit between models and proxy‐data. Plain Language Summary: The global mean surface temperature is a commonly used indicator to measure global climate change. Our understanding of how the global surface temperature has changed in the last 66 Myr is mainly based on the assumption that changes in the deep‐sea temperature (DST) reflect changes at the surface well. Here, we test this idea by using climate model simulations of a hothouse period, the early Eocene Climate Optimum (53–49 Myr ago). We find that changes in the global DST indeed correlate well with temperature changes at the surface. We find the best fit between the models and data from the early Eocene for atmospheric CO2 levels at around 1,680 ppm. Key Points: In early Eocene model simulations (Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project [DeepMIP]), global mean deep‐sea, and surface temperatures are equally sensitive to atmospheric CO2 changesModel‐simulated deep‐sea temperatures show limited spatial variability, making local estimates generally representative of the global meanThe model simulations with a CO2 forcing of 1,680 ppm match paleo‐proxies of global mean deep‐sea, sea‐surface, and surface temperature [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period in which the atmospheric CO 2 concentration was approximately equal to the concentration we measure today (ca. 400 ppm). Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate above-average warming over the North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) show that the ensemble simulates a stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial. However, no consistent relationship between the stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC and either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs has been found. In this study, we look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in mid-Pliocene compared to pre-industrial simulations in PlioMIP2. We find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. This contributes to an increase in salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea that can be linked to the stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene. To investigate the dynamics behind the ensemble's variable response of the total Atlantic OHT to the stronger AMOC, we separate the Atlantic OHT into two components associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mid-Pliocene, it is partly compensated by a reduction in the gyre component in the northern subtropical gyre region. This indicates that the lack of relationship between the total OHT and AMOC is due to changes in OHT by the subtropical gyre. The overturning and gyre components should therefore be considered separately to gain a more complete understanding of the OHT response to a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC. In addition, we show that the AMOC exerts a stronger influence on North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial, providing a possible explanation for the improved agreement of the PlioMIP2 ensemble mean SSTs with reconstructions in the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is one suchmetric thatmeasures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling. However, both in their estimation and their usage, such metrics make assumptions on the linearity of climate response, although it is known that, especially for larger forcing levels, response can be nonlinear. Such nonlinear responses may become visible immediately in response to a larger perturbation, or may only become apparent after a long transient period. In this paper, we illustrate some potential problems and caveats when estimating ECS from transient simulations. We highlight ways that very slow time scales may lead to poor estimation of ECS even if there is seemingly good fit to linear response over moderate time scales. Moreover, such slow processes might lead to late abrupt responses (late tipping points) associated with a system's nonlinearities.We illustrate these ideas using simulations on a global energy balance model with dynamic albedo. We also discuss the implications for estimating ECS for global climate models, highlighting that it is likely to remain difficult to make definitive statements about the simulation times needed to reach an equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model simulations of past climates are increasingly found to compare well with proxy data at a global scale, but regional discrepancies remain. A persistent issue in modeling past greenhouse climates has been the temperature difference between equatorial and (sub‐)polar regions, which is typically much larger in simulations than proxy data suggest. Particularly in the Eocene, multiple temperature proxies suggest extreme warmth in the southwest Pacific Ocean, where model simulations consistently suggest temperate conditions. Here, we present new global ocean model simulations at 0.1° horizontal resolution for the middle‐late Eocene. The eddies in the high‐resolution model affect poleward heat transport and local time‐mean flow in critical regions compared to the noneddying flow in the standard low‐resolution simulations. As a result, the high‐resolution simulations produce higher surface temperatures near Antarctica and lower surface temperatures near the equator compared to the low‐resolution simulations, leading to better correspondence with proxy reconstructions. Crucially, the high‐resolution simulations are also much more consistent with biogeographic patterns in endemic‐Antarctic and low‐latitude‐derived plankton, and thus resolve the long‐standing discrepancy of warm subpolar ocean temperatures and isolating polar gyre circulation. The results imply that strongly eddying model simulations are required to reconcile discrepancies between regional proxy data and models, and demonstrate the importance of accurate regional paleobathymetry for proxy‐model comparisons. Plain Language Summary: Climate models are widely used to understand warm climates in the geologic past such as the late Eocene (38 million years ago; ∼8°C warmer than today). To determine the quality of these models, simulations are often compared to measured proxies representing the regional environment. Here, we show that a finer‐than‐typical detail in the ocean model causes a profoundly different regional ocean flow and environmental conditions. The improved correspondence to proxy data implies that high‐resolution simulations are required for a meaningful point‐by‐point data‐model comparison. Key Points: Eddying ocean simulations provide a profoundly different local flow compared to noneddying simulationsHeat transport is enhanced in eddying simulations leading to reduced equator‐to‐pole sea surface temperature gradientsEddying simulations reduce model‐data mismatches for sea surface temperature and ocean flow [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proxy records show large variability of atmospheric pCO2 on different timescales. Most often such variations are attributed to a forced response of the carbon cycle to changes in external conditions. Here, we address the problem of internally generated variations in pCO2 due to pure carbon cycle dynamics. We focus on the effect of the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on such internal variability. Using the Simple Carbon Project Model v1.0 (SCP-M), which we have extended to represent a suite of nonlinear carbon cycle feedbacks, we efficiently explore the multi-dimensional parameter space to address the AMOC– pCO2 relationship. We find that climatic boundary conditions and the representation of biological production in the model are most important for this relationship. When climate sensitivity in our model is increased, we find intrinsic oscillations due to Hopf bifurcations with multi-millennial periods. The mechanism behind these oscillations is clarified and related to the coupling of atmospheric pCO2 and the alkalinity cycle, via the river influx and the sediment outflux. This mechanism is thought to be relevant for explaining atmospheric pCO2 variability during glacial cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was approximately equal to the concentration we measure today (ca. 400 ppm). Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate above-average warming over the North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier results from the Pliocene 5 Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) show that the ensemble simulates a stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial. However, no consistent relationship between the stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC and either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs has been found. In this study, we look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in mid-Pliocene compared to pre-industrial simulations in PlioMIP2. We find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. The resulting increase in salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea drives the stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene. To investigate the dynamics behind the ensemble's variable response of the total Atlantic OHT to the stronger AMOC, we separate the Atlantic OHT into two components associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component increased significantly in magnitude in the mid-Pliocene, it is partly compensated by a reduction of the gyre component in the northern subtropical gyre region. This indicates that the lack of relationship between the total OHT and AMOC is due to changes in OHT by the subtropical gyre. The overturning and gyre components should therefore be considered separately to gain a more complete understanding of the OHT response to a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC. In addition, we show that the AMOC exerts a stronger influence on North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial, providing a possible explanation for the improved agreement of the PlioMIP2 ensemble mean SSTs with reconstructions in the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the Utrecht contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CCSM4-Utr). Using a standard pre-industrial configuration and the enhanced PlioMIP2 set of boundary conditions, we perform a set of simulations at various levels of atmospheric pCO 2 (280, 400, and 560 ppm). This allows us to make an assessment of the mid-Pliocene reference (Eoi 400) climate versus available proxy records and a pre-industrial control (E 280), as well as determine the sensitivity to different external forcing mechanisms. We find that our simulated Pliocene climate is considerably warmer than the pre-industrial reference, even under the same levels of atmospheric pCO 2. Compared to the E 280 case, our simulated Eoi 400 climate is on average almost 5 ∘ C warmer at the surface. Our Eoi 400 case is among the warmest within the PlioMIP2 ensemble and only comparable to the results of models with a much higher climate sensitivity (i.e. CESM2, EC-Earth3.3, and HadGEM3). This is accompanied by a considerable polar amplification factor, increased globally averaged precipitation, and greatly reduced sea ice cover with respect to the pre-industrial reference. In addition to radiative feedbacks (mainly surface albedo, CO 2 , and water vapour), a major contribution to the enhanced Pliocene warmth in these simulations is the warm model initialisation followed by a long spin-up, as opposed to starting from pre-industrial or present-day conditions. Added warmth in the deep ocean is partly the result of using an altered vertical mixing parameterisation in the Pliocene simulations, but this has a negligible effect at the surface. We find a stronger and deeper Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the Eoi 400 case, but the associated meridional heat transport is mostly unaffected. In addition to the mean state, we find significant shifts in the behaviour of the dominant modes of variability at annual to decadal timescales. The Eoi 400 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is greatly reduced (-68 %) versus the E 280 one, while the AMOC becomes more variable. There is also a strong coupling between AMOC strength and North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Eoi 400 , while North Pacific SST anomalies seem to have a reduced global influence with respect to the E 280 through the weakened ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO 2 levels were similar to recent historical values (∼400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies. In this work, we study El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and "flavour", as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (-24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4-year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 ∘ C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most "El Niño-like" mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude to that in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more "La Niña-like" mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement with both time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient and reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the Utrecht contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CCSM4-Utr). Using a standard pre-industrial configuration and the enhanced PlioMIP2 set of boundary conditions, we perform a set of simulations at various levels of atmospheric pCO2. This allows us to make an assessment of the mid-Pliocene reference (Eoi400) climate versus available proxy records and a pre-industrial control (E280), as well as to determine the sensitivity to different external forcing mechanisms. We find that our simulated Pliocene climate is considerably warmer than the pre-industrial reference, even under the same levels of atmospheric pCO2. Compared to the E280 case, the simulated climate of our Eoi400 is on average almost 5°C warmer at the surface. Our Eoi400 case is among the warmest within the PlioMIP2 ensemble and only comparable to the results of models with a much higher climate sensitivity (i.e. CESM2, EC-Earth3.3, and HadGEM3). This is accompanied by a considerable polar amplification factor, increased precipitation and greatly reduced sea ice cover. A primary contribution to this enhanced Pliocene warmth is likely our warm model initialisation followed by a long spin-up, as opposed to starting from pre-industrial or present-day conditions. Added warmth in the deep ocean is partly the result of using an altered vertical mixing parametrisation in the Pliocene simulations, but this has a negligible effect at the surface. We find a stronger and deeper Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the Eoi400 case, but the associated meridional heat transport is mostly unaffected. In addition to the mean state, we find significant shifts in the behaviour of the dominant modes of variability at annual to decadal timescales. The Eoi400 ENSO amplitude is greatly reduced (-68%) versus the E280 one, while the AMOC becomes more variable. There is also a strong coupling between AMOC strength and North Atlantic SST variability in the Eoi400, while North Pacific SST anomalies seem to have a reduced global influence with respect to the E280 through the weakened ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO 2 forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the freshwater budget of the Atlantic and Arctic oceans in coupled climate change simulations with the Community Earth System Model and compare a strongly eddying setup with 0.1 ∘ ocean grid spacing to a non-eddying 1 ∘ configuration typical of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Details of this budget are important to understand the evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under climate change. We find that the slowdown of the AMOC in the year 2100 under the increasing CO 2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario is almost identical between both simulations. Also, the surface freshwater fluxes are similar in their mean and trend under climate change in both simulations. While the basin-scale total freshwater transport is similar between the simulations, significant local differences exist. The high-ocean-resolution simulation exhibits significantly reduced ocean state biases, notably in the salt distribution, due to an improved circulation. Mesoscale eddies contribute considerably to the freshwater and salt transport, in particular at the boundaries of the subtropical and subpolar gyres. Both simulations start in the single equilibrium AMOC regime according to a commonly used AMOC stability indicator and evolve towards the multiple equilibrium regime under climate change, but only the high-resolution simulation enters it due to the reduced biases in the freshwater budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long‐term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2. Since global climate models cannot be fully equilibrated in practice, extrapolation techniques are used to estimate the equilibrium state from transient warming simulations. Because of the abundance of climate feedbacks—spanning a wide range of temporal scales—it is hard to extract long‐term behavior from short‐time series; predominantly used techniques are only capable of detecting the single most dominant eigenmode, thus hampering their ability to give accurate long‐term estimates. Here, we present an extension to those methods by incorporating data from multiple observables in a multicomponent linear regression model. This way, not only the dominant but also the next‐dominant eigenmodes of the climate system are captured, leading to better long‐term estimates from short, nonequilibrated time series. Plain Language Summary: Although it is clear that the atmospheric CO2 concentration influences the Earth's climate, it is difficult to quantify its long‐term effects accurately. Scientific efforts in this direction focus on idealized experiments carried out in global climate models. In these experiments, atmospheric CO2 is (instantaneously) doubled, and the long‐term temperature increase this causes is recorded. This resulting temperature increase is called the (equilibrium) climate sensitivity; accurately knowing its value helps to better quantify the effects of different emission scenarios on the future climate. However, it takes a very long time before all processes in a climate model are fully settled—especially in state‐of‐the‐art, more and more detailed models—and, in practice, settling all is simply not feasible. Hence, climate sensitivity needs to be estimated from limited model data. This is particularly difficult as the climate system consists of many processes that behave on vastly different time scales. Here, we present a new estimation technique that is better capable of capturing the very slow processes than conventional techniques, and hence leads to a more accurate quantification of (equilibrium) climate sensitivity. Key Points: A new and improved equilibrium climate sensitivity estimation technique is introduced that is intrinsically multieigenmodalThis new estimation technique better captures long‐term model behavior from short‐term forcing experiments compared to conventional methodsThe method uses multiple observables and can also estimate their equilibrium values, expediting multivariate sensitivity metrics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), coupled climate models have been used to simulate an interglacial climate during the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), poleward ocean heat transport and sea surface warming in the Atlantic simulated with these models. In PlioMIP2, all models simulate an intensified mid-Pliocene AMOC. However, there is no consistent response in the simulated Atlantic ocean heat transport nor in the depth of the Atlantic overturning cell. The models show a large spread in the simulated AMOC maximum, the Atlantic ocean heat transport and the surface warming in the North Atlantic. Although a few models simulate a surface warming of ∼ 8–12 ∘C in the North Atlantic, similar to the reconstruction from Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 4, most models appear to underestimate this warming. The large model spread and model–data discrepancies in the PlioMIP2 ensemble do not support the hypothesis that an intensification of the AMOC, together with an increase in northward ocean heat transport, is the dominant mechanism for the mid-Pliocene warm climate over the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Any type of non-buoyant material in the ocean is transported horizontally by currents during its sinking journey. This lateral transport can be far from negligible for small sinking velocities. To estimate its magnitude and direction, the material is often modelled as a set of Lagrangian particles advected by current velocities that are obtained from Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). State-of-the-art OGCMs are strongly eddying, similar to the real ocean, providing results with a spatial resolution on the order of 10 km on a daily frequency. While the importance of eddies in OGCMs is well-appreciated in the physical oceanographic community, other marine research communities may not. Further, many long term climate modelling simulations (e.g. in paleoclimate) rely on lower spatial resolution models that do not capture mesoscale features. To demonstrate how much the absence of mesoscale features in low-resolution models influences the Lagrangian particle transport, we simulate the transport of sinking Lagrangian particles using low- and high-resolution global OGCMs, and assess the lateral transport differences resulting from the difference in spatial and temporal model resolution. We find major differences between the transport in the non-eddying OGCM and in the eddying OGCM. Addition of stochastic noise to the particle trajectories in the non-eddying OGCM parameterises the effect of eddies well in some cases (e.g. in the North Pacific gyre). The effect of a coarser temporal resolution (once every 5 days versus monthly) is smaller compared to a coarser spatial resolution (0.1° versus 1° horizontally). We recommend to use sinking Lagrangian particles, representing e.g. marine snow, microplankton or sinking plastic, only with velocity fields from eddying Eulerian OGCMs, requiring high-resolution models in e.g. paleoceanographic studies. To increase the accessibility of our particle trace simulations, we launch planktondrift.science.uu.nl, an online tool to reconstruct the surface origin of sedimentary particles in a specific location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a study of a delay differential equation (DDE) model for the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). We investigate the behavior of the model when subjected to periodic forcing. The unforced model has a bistable region consisting of a stable equilibrium along with a large-amplitude stable periodic orbit. We study how forcing affects solutions in this region. Forcing based on astronomical data causes a sudden transition in time and under increase of the forcing amplitude, moving the model response from a non-MPT regime to an MPT regime. Similar transition behavior is found for periodic forcing. A bifurcation analysis shows that the transition is due not to a bifurcation but instead to a shifting basin of attraction. While determining the basin boundary we demonstrate how one can accurately compute the intersection of a stable manifold of a saddle with a slow manifold in a DDE by embedding the algorithm for planar maps proposed by England, Krauskopf, and Osinga. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems is presented containing the double-fold, fold–Hopf, Hopf–fold and double-Hopf as the most generic cases. Statistical indicators which can be used as early warning indicators of cascading tipping events in stochastic, non-stationary systems are suggested. The concept of cascading tipping is illustrated through a conceptual model of the coupled North Atlantic Ocean – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, demonstrating the possibility of such cascading events in the climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the early Eocene has been considered in many modelling studies, detailed simulations of the middle and late Eocene climate are currently scarce. To understand Antarctic glaciation at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (~ 34 Ma) as well as middle Eocene warmth, it is vital to have an adequate reconstruction of the middle-to-late Eocene climate. Here, we present a set of high resolution coupled climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1. Two middle-to-late Eocene cases are considered with new detailed 38 Ma geographical boundary conditions with a different radiative forcing. With 4 x pre-industrial concentrations of CO2 (i.e. 1120 ppm) and CH4 (~ 2700 ppb), the equilibrium sea surface temperatures correspond well to available late middle Eocene (42-38 Ma) proxies. Being generally cooler, the simulated climate with 2 x pre-industrial values is a good analog for that of the late Eocene (38-34 Ma). Deep water formation occurs in the South Pacific Ocean, while the North Atlantic is strongly stratified and virtually stagnant. A shallow and weak circumpolar current is present in the Southern Ocean with only minor effects on southward oceanic heat transport within wind-driven gyres. Terrestrial temperature proxies, although limited in coverage, also indicate that the results presented here are realistic. The reconstructed 38 Ma climate has a reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient and a more symmetric meridional heat distribution compared to the pre-industrial reference. Climate sensitivity is similar (~ 0.7 °C/Wm²) to that of the present-day climate (~ 0.8 °C/Wm²; 3 °C per CO2 doubling), with significant polar amplification despite very limited sea ice and snow cover. High latitudes are mainly kept warm by albedo and cloud feedbacks in combination with global changes in geography and the absence of polar ice sheets. The integrated effect of geography, vegetation and ice accounts for a 6-7 °C offset between pre-industrial and 38 Ma Eocene boundary conditions. These 38 Ma simulations effectively show that a realistic middle-to-late Eocene climate can be reconstructed without the need for greenhouse gas concentrations much higher than proxy estimates. The general circulation and radiative budget allow for mild high-latitude regions and little to no snow and ice cover, without making equatorial regions extremely warm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the discussion on climate reconstruction showing a correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide. Topics include data providing a consistent explanation for the long-term evolution of global temperature and ice sheets on Earth; and decreasing the tectonic degassing source of carbon dioxide leading to declining carbon dioxide concentrations.

Equilibrium climate sensitivity is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models or by observational data. The reasons for this include strong internal variability and forcing on many timescales. In practice, this means that the 'equilibrium' will only be relative to fixing the slow feedback processes before comparing palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates with estimates from model simulations. In addition, information from the late Pleistocene ice age cycles indicates that the climate cycles between cold and warm regimes, and the climate sensitivity varies considerably between regime because of fast feedback processes changing relative strength and timescales over one cycle. In this paper, we consider climate sensitivity for quite general climate dynamics. Using a conceptual Earth system model of Gildor and Tziperman (A sea ice climate switch mechanism for the 100-kyr glacial cycles. J Geophys Res 2001; 106: 9117-33) (with Milankovich forcing and dynamical ocean biogeochemistry), we explore various ways of quantifying the state dependence of climate sensitivity from unperturbed and perturbed model time series. Even without considering any perturbation, we suggest that climate sensitivity can be usefully thought of as a distribution that quantifies variability within the 'climate attractor'. On the 'climate attractor', there is a strong dependence on climate state or more specifically on the 'climate regime' where fast processes are approximately in equilibrium. We also consider perturbations by instantaneous doubling of CO2 and similarly find a strong dependence on the climate state using our approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high (>800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (~50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4×CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies on the palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography using numerical model simulations may be considerably dependent on the implemented geographical reconstruction. Because building the palaeogeographic datasets for these models is often a time-consuming and elaborate exercise, palaeoclimate models frequently use reconstructions in which the latest state-of-the-art plate tectonic reconstructions, palaeotopography and -bathymetry, or vegetation have not yet been incorporated. In this paper, we therefore provide a new method to efficiently generate a global geographical reconstruction for the middle-late Eocene. The generalised procedure is also reusable to create reconstructions for other time slices within the Cenozoic, suitable for palaeoclimate modelling. We use a plate-tectonic model to make global masks containing the distribution of land, continental shelves, shallow basins and deep ocean. The use of depth-age relationships for oceanic crust together with adjusted present-day topography gives a first estimate of the global geography at a chosen time frame. This estimate subsequently needs manual editing of areas where existing geological data indicate that the altimetry has changed significantly over time. Certain generic changes (e.g. lowering mountain ranges) can be made relatively easily by defining a set of masks while other features may require a more specific treatment. Since the discussion regarding many of these regions is still ongoing, it is crucial to make it easy for changes to be incorporated without having to redo the entire procedure. In this manner, a complete reconstruction can be made that suffices as a boundary condition for numerical models with a limited effort. This facilitates the interaction between experts in geology and palaeoclimate modelling, keeping reconstructions up to date and improving the consistency between different studies. Moreover, it facilitates model intercomparison studies and sensitivity tests regarding certain geographical features as newly generated boundary conditions can more easily be incorporated in different model simulations. The workflow is presented covering a middle-late Eocene reconstruction (38 Ma), using a MatLab script and a complete set of source files that are provided in the supplementary material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The timing and role in ocean circulation and climate of the opening of Southern Ocean gateways is as yet elusive. Recent micropalaeontological studies suggest the onset of westward throughflow of surface waters from the SW Pacific into the Australo-Antarctic Gulf through a southern shallow opening of the Tasman Gateway from 49-50 Ma onwards, a direction that is counter to the presentday eastward-flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Here, we present the first model results specific to the early-to-middle Eocene where, in agreement with the field evidence, southerly shallow opening of the Tasman Gateway indeed causes a westward flow across the Tasman Gateway. As a result, modelled estimates of dinoflagellate biogeography are in agreement with the recent findings. Crucially, in this situation where Australia is still situated far south and almost attached to Antarctica, the Drake Passage must be sufficiently restricted to allow the prevailing easterly wind pattern to set up this southerly restricted westward flow. In contrast, an open Drake Passage, up to 517m deep, leads to an eastward flow, even when the Tasman Gateway and the Australo-Antarctic gulf are entirely contained within the latitudes of easterly wind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high (> 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post-hoc intercomparison of Eocene (~50 million years ago, Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the latest Paleocene and the early Eocene. Together these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the deeptime model intercomparison project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design consists of three core paleo simulations and a set of optional sensitivity studies. The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, orbital configuration, solar constant, land surface parameters, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological datasets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evidence from both data and models indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[X] - the global annual mean surface temperature change (ΔTg) as a response to a change in radiative forcing X (ΔR[X]) - is state dependent. Such a state dependency implies that the best fit in the scatter plot of ΔTg versus ΔR[X] is not a linear regression, but for instance a higher order polynomial. While for the conventional linear case the slope (gradient) of the regression is correctly interpreted as the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[X], the interpretation is not straightforward in the non-linear case. We here elaborate how such a state dependent scatter plot needs to be interpreted, and provide a theoretical understanding how to calculate S[X] in the non-linear case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructions of Pliocene sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients and thermocline depths suggest that the zonal temperature gradient of the tropical Pacific was distinct from the modern. However, the nature of any El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability superimposed on this mean state is difficult to determine. We developed monthly resolved multidecadal stable isotopic time series from an extremely well preserved central Caribbean coral dating to the Miocene-Pliocene transition, prior to closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS). Paleoceanographic modeling suggests that the flow of water associated with El Nin~o and La Nin~a events through the CAS allowed Caribbean corals to record the ENSOrelated SST anomalies. Spectral analysis of coral oxygen isotope ratios reveals periodicities similar to modern ENSO signatures, suggesting that ENSO-like variability characterized the Miocene-Pliocene transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]