1. EvaSylv: A user-friendly software to evaluate forestry scenarii including natural risk
- Author
-
Loisel, Patrice, Duvillié, Guillerme, barbeau, denis, Charnomordic, Brigitte, Loisel, patrice, Mathématiques, Informatique et STatistique pour l'Environnement et l'Agronomie (MISTEA), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Graphes et Optimisation Mathématique [Bruxelles] (GOM), Université Libre de Bruxelles [Bruxelles] (ULB), financial support from the Economic, Human and Social Science Researchers Network of Ecofor, (grant number ECOFOR 2012-24). We thank our funders as well as those who provided assistance with writing this paper., Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), and Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)
- Subjects
FOS: Computer and information sciences ,Faustmann ,stand level ,forest management ,[QFIN.RM]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Risk Management [q-fin.RM] ,natural risk ,Statistics - Applications ,FOS: Economics and business ,[QFIN.RM] Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Risk Management [q-fin.RM] ,Applications (stat.AP) ,Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution ,JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q1 - Agriculture ,Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) ,JEL: D - Microeconomics/D.D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty/D.D8.D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty ,Decision Support System ,simulation ,[INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation ,[SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society ,storm risk ,JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q2 - Renewable Resources and Conservation/Q.Q2.Q23 - Forestry ,Risk Management (q-fin.RM) ,FOS: Biological sciences ,[INFO.INFO-MO] Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation ,[SDE.ES] Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society ,optimization ,Quantitative Finance - Risk Management - Abstract
Forest management relies on the evaluation of silviculture practices. The increase in natural risk due to climate change makes it necessary to consider evaluation criteria that take natural risk into account. Risk integration in existing software requires advanced programming skills.We propose a user-friendly software to simulate even-aged and monospecific forest at the stand level, in order to evaluate and optimize forest management. The software gives the possibility to run management scenarii with or without considering the impact of natural risk. The control variables are the dates and rates of thinning and the cutting age.The risk model is based on a Poisson processus. The Faustmann approach, including tree damage risk, is used to evaluate future benefits, economic or ecosystem services. It relies on the calculation of expected values, for which a dedicated mathematical development has been done. The optimized criteria used to evaluate the various scenarii are the Faustmann value and the Averaged yield value.We illustrate the approach and the software on two case studies: economic optimization of a beech stand and carbon sequestration optimization of a pine stand.Software interface makes it easy for users to write their own (growth-tree damage-economic) models without advanced programming skills. The possibility to run management scenarii with/without considering the impact of natural risk may contribute improving silviculture guidelines and adapting them to climate change. We propose future lines of research and improvement.
- Published
- 2019