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524 results on '"ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC)"'

1. Natural forests promote phosphorus retention in soil

Author: Zhou Guoyi, Lei Liu, Lin Li, Wantong Wang, Juxiu Liu, Stefano Manzoni, Philippe Ciais, Xuli Tang, Junhua Yan, Jordi Sardans, Zhen Yu, Josep Peñuelas, Daniel S. Goll, Jie Zhu, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Stockholm University, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries, China National Science Foundation. Grant Numbers: 32001166, 42071031, 42130506, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology Foundation. Grant Number: JKLAM2004, Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST. Grant Number: 2019r059, and ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016)
Subjects: China, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Forest management, Natural forest, chemistry.chemical_element, natural forests, Ecological succession, Forests, Biology, 01 natural sciences, Trees, successional stage, Soil, Environmental Chemistry, Ecosystem, phosphorus, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, Phosphorus, planted forests, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, growth stage, Pedogenesis, chemistry, Plant productivity, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Soil horizon
Abstract: International audience; AbstractSoil phosphorus (P) availability often limits plant productivity. Classical theories suggest that total P content declines at the temporal scale of pedogenesis, and ecosystems develop toward the efficient use of scarce P during succession. However, the trajectory of ecosystem P within shorter time scales of succession remains unclear. We analyzed changes to P pools at the early (I), middle (II), and late (III) stages of growth of plantation forests (PFs) and the successional stages of natural forests (NFs) at 1969 sites in China. We found significantly lower P contents at later growth stages compared to earlier ones in the PF (p < .05), but higher contents at late successional stages than in earlier stages in the NF (p < .05). Our results indicate that increasing P demand of natural vegetation during succession, may raise, retain, and accumulate P from deeper soil layers. In contrast, ecosystem P in PF was depleted by the more rapidly increasing demand outpacing the development of a P-efficient system. We advocate for more studies to illuminate the mechanisms for determining the divergent changes, which would improve forest management and avoid the vast degradation of PF ecosystems suffering from the ongoing depletion of P.
Published: 2021
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2. Vulnerability of European ecosystems to two compound dry and hot summers in 2018 and 2019

Author: A. Bastos, R. Orth, M. Reichstein, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, P. Anthoni, A. Arneth, P. Gentine, E. Joetzjer, S. Lienert, T. Loughran, P. C. McGuire, S. O, J. Pongratz, S. Sitch, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 530 Physics, Science, Vulnerability, QE500-639.5, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, 550 Earth sciences & geology, ddc:550, Ecosystem, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, QE1-996.5, 0303 health sciences, Geology, Enhanced vegetation index, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, Heat stress, Dynamic and structural geology, Earth sciences, Disturbance (ecology), 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science
Abstract: In 2018 and 2019, central Europe was affected by two consecutive extreme dry and hot summers (DH18 and DH19). The DH18 event had severe impacts on ecosystems and likely affected vegetation activity in the subsequent year, for example through depletion of carbon reserves or damage from drought. Such legacies from drought and heat stress can further increase vegetation susceptibility to additional hazards. Temporally compound extremes such as DH18 and DH19 can, therefore, result in an amplification of impacts due to preconditioning effects of past disturbance legacies. Here, we evaluate how these two consecutive extreme summers impacted ecosystems in central Europe and how the vegetation responses to the first compound event (DH18) modulated the impacts of the second (DH19). To quantify changes in vegetation vulnerability to each compound event, we first train a set of statistical models for the period 2001–2017, which are then used to predict the impacts of DH18 and DH19 on enhanced vegetation index (EVI) anomalies from MODIS. These estimates correspond to expected EVI anomalies in DH18 and DH19 based on past sensitivity to climate. Large departures from the predicted values can indicate changes in vulnerability to dry and hot conditions and be used to identify modulating effects by vegetation activity and composition or other environmental factors on observed impacts. We find two regions in which the impacts of the two compound dry and hot (DH) events were significantly stronger than those expected based on previous climate–vegetation relationships. One region, largely dominated by grasslands and crops, showed much stronger impacts than expected in both DH events due to an amplification of their sensitivity to heat and drought, possibly linked to changing background CO2 and temperature conditions. A second region, dominated by forests and grasslands, showed browning from DH18 to DH19, even though dry and hot conditions were partly alleviated in 2019. This browning trajectory was mainly explained by the preconditioning role of DH18 on the impacts of DH19 due to interannual legacy effects and possibly by increased susceptibility to biotic disturbances, which are also promoted by warm conditions. Dry and hot summers are expected to become more frequent in the coming decades, posing a major threat to the stability of European forests. We show that state-of-the-art process-based models could not represent the decline in response to DH19 because they missed the interannual legacy effects from DH18 impacts. These gaps may result in an overestimation of the resilience and stability of temperate ecosystems in future model projections.
Published: 2021
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3. Pathfinder v1.0.1: a Bayesian-inferred simple carbon–climate model to explore climate change scenarios

Author: Thomas Bossy, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, General Medicine, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract: The Pathfinder model was developed to fill a perceived gap within the range of existing simple climate models. Pathfinder is a compilation of existing formulations describing the climate and carbon cycle systems, chosen for their balance between mathematical simplicity and physical accuracy. The resulting model is simple enough to be used with Bayesian inference algorithms for calibration, which enables assimilation of the latest data from complex Earth system models and the IPCC sixth assessment report, as well as a yearly update based on observations of global temperature and atmospheric CO2. The model's simplicity also enables coupling with integrated assessment models and their optimization algorithms or running the model in a backward temperature-driven fashion. In spite of this simplicity, the model accurately reproduces behaviours and results from complex models – including several uncertainty ranges – when run following standardized diagnostic experiments. Pathfinder is an open-source model, and this is its first comprehensive description.
Published: 2022
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4. A mixed‐effect model approach for assessing land‐based mitigation in integrated assessment models: A regional perspective

Author: Florian Leblanc, Thierry Brunelle, Philippe Ciais, Céline Guivarch, Thais Diniz Oliveira, Bertrand Guenet, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Département Environnements et Sociétés (Cirad-ES), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Reconstitution forestière, Mixed model, Carbon Sequestration, Carbone, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Distribution (economics), 010501 environmental sciences, Région biogéographique, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, mixed- effect model, IAMs, afforestation, BECCS, Carbon capture and storage, Environmental Chemistry, Afforestation, Biomass, Land based, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Modélisation environnementale, atténuation des effets du changement climatique, Extension forestière, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, F07 - Façons culturales, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, Modélisation des cultures, business.industry, Reforestation, Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, mitigation scenarios, Environmental economics, Carbon, K10 - Production forestière, regional analysis, 13. Climate action, Software deployment, Environmental science, business
Abstract: International audience; Given the prospects of low short- term emissions reduction, carbon removals (CDRs) are expected to play an important role in achieving ambitious mitigation targets in future scenarios of integrated assessment models (IAMs), particularly Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). In this paper, we explore the IAMC 1.5 data-base to depict the characteristics of the two main CDR options present in mitigation scenarios: BECCS and afforestation/reforestation. We apply a linear mixed- effect model to capture the specific regional and cross- IAM effects. Results reveal that the distribution of BECCS and afforestation deployment differs across IAMs and regions and, to a second extent, time. BECCS is preferred in the scenarios not for its ability to expand energy use but actually because it appears as an alternative to afforestation, which is associated with a decrease in energy use. However, the regional distribution of CDR deployment does not show a common pattern across scenarios and IAMs. Therefore, a more comprehensive investigation is needed before it can support policy proposals.
Published: 2021
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5. Monitoring global carbon emissions in 2021

Author: Zhu Liu, Zhu Deng, Steven J. Davis, Clement Giron, Philippe Ciais, Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Kayrros, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Pollution, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract: Following record-level declines in 2020, near-real-time data indicate that global CO
Published: 2022
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6. Spatially explicit analysis identifies significant potential for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in China

Author: Xin Yang, Jianmin Ma, Rong Wang, Guofeng Shen, Olivier Boucher, Siqing Xu, Ivan A. Janssens, Xingnan Ye, Yutao Wang, Xiaofan Xing, Josep Peñuelas, Lin Wang, Daniel S. Goll, Philippe Ciais, James H. Clark, Nico Bauer, Xu Tang, Jianmin Chen, Qing X. Li, Bo Pan, Wei Li, Junji Cao, Gang Luo, Shicheng Zhang, Yves Balkanski, Yechen Yang, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Fudan University [Shanghai], Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41877506,21925601, 41922057), National Key Research and Development Program of China(No. 2017YFC0212200), the Chinese Thousand Youth Talents Program, Chinese Academyof Science (XDA23010100), the ERC-Synergy IMBALANCE-P, and the ANR CLANDConvergence Institute 16-CONV-0003. The research leading to these results was also supported by the PEGASOS (01LA1826C) project funded by the German Federal Ministry ofEducation and Research (BMBF). We gratefully acknowledge the useful comments offeredby three anonymous referees which are helpful to improve the manuscript., and ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016)
Subjects: Marginal cost, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Economics, Natural resource economics, 020209 energy, Science, General Physics and Astronomy, Biomass, 02 engineering and technology, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Article, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, 12. Responsible consumption, Engineering, Economic cost, 11. Sustainability, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Carbon capture and storage, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Climate-change mitigation, Biology, ddc:910, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Energy, Multidisciplinary, Agriculture, Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, General Chemistry, Climate change mitigation, Carbon neutrality, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Climate Change Mitigation, Engineering sciences. Technology
Abstract: As China ramped-up coal power capacities rapidly while CO2 emissions need to decline, these capacities would turn into stranded assets. To deal with this risk, a promising option is to retrofit these capacities to co-fire with biomass and eventually upgrade to CCS operation (BECCS), but the feasibility is debated with respect to negative impacts on broader sustainability issues. Here we present a data-rich spatially explicit approach to estimate the marginal cost curve for decarbonizing the power sector in China with BECCS. We identify a potential of 222 GW of power capacities in 2836 counties generated by co-firing 0.9 Gt of biomass from the same county, with half being agricultural residues. Our spatially explicit method helps to reduce uncertainty in the economic costs and emissions of BECCS, identify the best opportunities for bioenergy and show the limitations by logistical challenges to achieve carbon neutrality in the power sector with large-scale BECCS in China., China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. Here the authors find a promising option to abate 1.0 Gt CO2-eq yr−1 of carbon emissions at a marginal cost of $69 (t CO2-eq)−1 by retrofitting 222 GW of coal power plants to co-fire with biomass and upgrading to CCS operation across 2836 counties in China.
Published: 2021
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7. A twenty year record of greenhouse gases in the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere

Author: Nikos Gialesakis, Nikos Kalivitis, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Michel Ramonet, Morgan Lopez, Camille Yver Kwok, Clement Narbaud, Nikos Daskalakis, Marios Mermigkas, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Maria Kanakidou, Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory [Heraklion] (ECPL), Department of Chemistry [Heraklion], University of Crete [Heraklion] (UOC)-University of Crete [Heraklion] (UOC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-RAMCES (ICOS-RAMCES), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Laboratory for Modeling and Observation of the Earth System (LAMOS), Institut für Umweltphysik [Bremen] (IUP), Universität Bremen-Universität Bremen, and Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Chemistry, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Pollution, Waste Management and Disposal
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2022
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8. New contributions of measurements in Europe to the global inventory of the stable isotopic composition of methane

Author: Menoud, Malika, Van Der Veen, Carina, Lowry, Dave, Fernandez, Julianne M., Bakkaloglu, Semra, France, James L., Fisher, Rebecca E., Maazallahi, Hossein, Stanisavljević, Mila, Nȩcki, Jarosław, Vinkovic, Katarina, Łakomiec, Patryk, Rinne, Janne, Korbeń, Piotr, Schmidt, Martina, Defratyka, Sara, Yver-Kwok, Camille, Andersen, Truls, Chen, Huilin, Röckmann, Thomas, Sub Atmospheric physics and chemistry, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Atmospheric physics and chemistry, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), This research has been supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programmeunder the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 722479. We thank all the staff from different organisations involved in the MEMO2, CoMet, and ROMEO projects whoparticipated in the sample collection.We acknowledge the technicalstaff at UU and RHUL for the maintenance of the IRMS systems.This work was supported by the ITN project 'Methane goes Mobile– Measurements and Modelling' (MEMO2, European Project: 722479,H2020,H2020-MSCA-ITN-2016,MEMO2(2017), and Isotope Research
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Bacteriogenic methane, Atmospheric methane, Silesian coal basin, Transport mechanisms, Bacterial methane, Ch4 oxidation, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), Natural gases, Source signatures, Fossil-fuel, Carbon-dioxide, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract: Recent climate change mitigation strategies rely on the reduction of methane (CH4) emissions. Carbon and hydrogen isotope ratio (δ13CCH4 and δ2HCH4) measurements can be used to distinguish sources and thus to understand the CH4 budget better. The CH4 emission estimates by models are sensitive to the isotopic signatures assigned to each source category, so it is important to provide representative estimates of the different CH4 source isotopic signatures worldwide. We present new measurements of isotope signatures of various, mainly anthropogenic, CH4 sources in Europe, which represent a substantial contribution to the global dataset of source isotopic measurements from the literature, especially for δ2HCH4. They improve the definition of δ13CCH4 from waste sources, and demonstrate the use of δ2HCH4 for fossil fuel source attribution. We combined our new measurements with the last published database of CH4 isotopic signatures and with additional literature, and present a new global database. We found that microbial sources are generally well characterised. The large variability in fossil fuel isotopic compositions requires particular care in the choice of weighting criteria for the calculation of a representative global value. The global dataset could be further improved by measurements from African, South American, and Asian countries, and more measurements from pyrogenic sources. We improved the source characterisation of CH4 emissions using stable isotopes and associated uncertainty, to be used in top-down studies. We emphasise that an appropriate use of the database requires the analysis of specific parameters in relation to source type and the region of interest. The final version of the European CH4 isotope database coupled with a global inventory of fossil and non-fossil δ13CCH4 and δ2HCH4 source signature measurements is available at https://doi.org/10.24416/UU01-YP43IN (Menoud et al., 2022a).
Published: 2022
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9. Consistency of Satellite Climate Data Records for Earth System Monitoring

Author: Emilio Chuvieco, Michael Buchwitz, Thomas Popp, Victoria Bennett, Ulrika Willén, Benoit Meyssignac, Stefan G. H. Simis, Frank Paul, Wouter Dorigo, Shubha Sathyendranath, Philippe Ciais, Shaun Quegan, Rainer Hollmann, Christopher J. Merchant, Annett Bartsch, Carsten Brockmann, Thomas Lavergne, Tracy Scanlon, Fabrice Ardhuin, Ana Bastos, Richard G. Jones, Michaela I. Hegglin, Darren Ghent, Marc Schröder, Jacqueline Boutin, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), University of Reading (UOR), Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), NERC National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC), Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Institute of Environmental Physics [Bremen] (IUP), University of Bremen, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation [Wien], Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geography [Zürich], Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich (UZH), School of Mathematics and Statistics [Sheffield] (SoMaS), University of Sheffield [Sheffield], Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Zurich, and Popp, Thomas
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, media_common.quotation_subject, Climate change, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, computer.software_genre, 01 natural sciences, Task (project management), Consistency (database systems), Climate records, 1902 Atmospheric Science, 910 Geography & travel, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Remote sensing, Satellite observations, Metadata, Interdependence, Earth system science, 10122 Institute of Geography, 13. Climate action, Key (cryptography), Satellite, Data mining, Atmosphäre, computer
Abstract: Climate data records (CDRs) of essential climate variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) derived from satellite instruments help to characterize the main components of the Earth system, to identify the state and evolution of its processes, and to constrain the budgets of key cycles of water, carbon, and energy. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) of the European Space Agency (ESA) coordinates the derivation of CDRs for 21 GCOS ECVs. The combined use of multiple ECVs for Earth system science applications requires consistency between and across their respective CDRs. As a comprehensive definition for multi-ECV consistency is missing so far, this study proposes defining consistency on three levels: 1) consistency in format and metadata to facilitate their synergetic use (technical level); 2) consistency in assumptions and auxiliary datasets to minimize incompatibilities among datasets (retrieval level); and 3) consistency between combined or multiple CDRs within their estimated uncertainties or physical constraints (scientific level). Analyzing consistency between CDRs of multiple quantities is a challenging task and requires coordination between different observational communities, which is facilitated by the CCI program. The interdependencies of the satellite-based CDRs derived within the CCI program are analyzed to identify where consistency considerations are most important. The study also summarizes measures taken in CCI to ensure consistency on the technical level, and develops a concept for assessing consistency on the retrieval and scientific levels in the light of underlying physical knowledge. Finally, this study presents the current status of consistency between the CCI CDRs and future efforts needed to further improve it.
Published: 2020
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10. The regional European atmospheric transport inversion comparison, EUROCOM

Author: Monteil, Guillaume, Broquet, Grégoire, Scholze, Marko, Lang, Matthew, Karstens, Ute, Gerbig, Christoph, Koch, Frank-Thomas, Smith, Naomi, Thompson, Rona, Luijkx, Ingrid, White, Emily, Meesters, Antoon, Ciais, Philippe, Ganesan, Anita, Manning, Alistair, Mischurow, Michael, Peters, Wouter, Peylin, Philippe, Tarniewicz, Jérome, Rigby, Matt, Rödenbeck, Christian, Vermeulen, Alex, Walton, Evie, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund], Lund University [Lund], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Norsk Institutt for Luftforskning (NILU), Meteorology and Air Quality Group, University of Bristol [Bristol], Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Centre for Isotope Research [Groningen] (CIO), University of Groningen [Groningen], Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Earth and Climate, Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), and Isotope Research
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, LAND, GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS, WIMEK, ASSIMILATION, QUANTIFICATION, Luchtkwaliteit, FRAMEWORK, UNCERTAINTIES, Air Quality, MODEL, DIOXIDE EXCHANGE, CO2 INVERSIONS, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Life Science, CYCLE, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: Atmospheric inversions have been used for the past two decades to derive large-scale constraints on the sources and sinks of CO2 into the atmosphere. The development of dense in situ surface observation networks, such as ICOS in Europe, enables in theory inversions at a resolution close to the country scale in Europe. This has led to the development of many regional inversion systems capable of assimilating these high-resolution data, in Europe and elsewhere. The EUROCOM (European atmospheric transport inversion comparison) project is a collaboration between seven European research institutes, which aims at producing a collective assessment of the net carbon flux between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere in Europe for the period 2006–2015. It aims in particular at investigating the capacity of the inversions to deliver consistent flux estimates from the country scale up to the continental scale. The project participants were provided with a common database of in situ-observed CO2 concentrations (including the observation sites that are now part of the ICOS network) and were tasked with providing their best estimate of the net terrestrial carbon flux for that period, and for a large domain covering the entire European Union. The inversion systems differ by the transport model, the inversion approach, and the choice of observation and prior constraints, enabling us to widely explore the space of uncertainties. This paper describes the intercomparison protocol and the participating systems, and it presents the first results from a reference set of inversions, at the continental scale and in four large regions. At the continental scale, the regional inversions support the assumption that European ecosystems are a relatively small sink (-0.21±0.2 Pg C yr−1). We find that the convergence of the regional inversions at this scale is not better than that obtained in state-of-the-art global inversions. However, more robust results are obtained for sub-regions within Europe, and in these areas with dense observational coverage, the objective of delivering robust country-scale flux estimates appears achievable in the near future.
Published: 2020
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11. Trade-off between tree planting and wetland conservation in China

Author: Yi Xi, Shushi Peng, Gang Liu, Agnès Ducharne, Philippe Ciais, Catherine Prigent, Xinyu Li, Xutao Tang, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS), École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), LERMA Cergy (LERMA), Laboratoire d'Etude du Rayonnement et de la Matière en Astrophysique et Atmosphères = Laboratory for Studies of Radiation and Matter in Astrophysics and Atmospheres (LERMA), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-CY Cergy Paris Université (CY)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-CY Cergy Paris Université (CY), and The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers 41830643 and 41722101), and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFC0500203). P.C. acknowledges support from the ANR CLAND convergence institute. We are grateful for the computational resources provided by the High-performance Computing Platform of Peking University’s supercomputing facility.
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, China, Conservation of Natural Resources, Multidisciplinary, Wetlands, General Physics and Astronomy, General Chemistry, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Ecosystem, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Trees
Abstract: Trade-offs between tree planting programs and wetland conservation are unclear. Here, we employ satellite-derived inundation data and a process-based land surface model (ORCHIDEE-Hillslope) to investigate the impacts of tree planting on wetland dynamics in China for 2000–2016 and the potential impacts of near-term tree planting activities for 2017–2035. We find that 160,000–190,000 km2(25.3–25.6%) of historical tree planting over wetland grid cells has resulted in 1,300–1,500 km2(0.3–0.4%) net wetland loss. Compared to moist southern regions, the dry northern and western regions show a much higher sensitivity of wetland reduction to tree planting. With most protected wetlands in China located in the drier northern and western basins, continuing tree planting scenarios are projected to lead to a > 10% wetland loss relative to 2000 across 4–8 out of 38 national wetland nature reserves. Our work shows how spatial optimization can help the balance of tree planting and wetland conservation targets.
Published: 2022
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12. Global fossil carbon emissions rebound near pre-COVID-19 levels

Author: R B Jackson, P Friedlingstein, C Le Quéré, S Abernethy, R M Andrew, J G Canadell, P Ciais, S J Davis, Zhu Deng, Zhu Liu, J I Korsbakken, G P Peters, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, University of Exeter, Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship (CSIRO), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC), Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), and European Project: 776810,H2020,H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB,VERIFY(2018)
Subjects: coal, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, and natural gas, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, COVID-19, FOS: Physical sciences, CO2 emissions, oil, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, climate change, global carbon budget, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), fossil fuels, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, energy, General Environmental Science
Abstract: Global fossil CO2 emissions in 2020 decreased 5.4%, from 36.7 Gt CO2 in 2019 to 34.8 Gt CO2 in 2020, an unprecedented decline of ~1.9 Gt CO2. We project that global fossil CO2 emissions in 2021 will rebound 4.9% (4.1% to 5.7%) compared to 2020 to 36.4 Gt CO2, returning nearly to 2019 emission levels of 36.7 Gt CO2. Emissions in China are expected to be 7% higher in 2021 than in 2019 (reaching 11.1 Gt CO2) and only slightly higher in India (a 3% increase in 2021 relative to 2019, and reaching 2.7 Gt CO2). In contrast, projected 2021 emissions in the United States (5.1 Gt CO2), European Union (2.8 Gt CO2), and rest of the world (14.8 Gt CO2, in aggregate) remain below 2019 levels. For fuels, CO2 emissions from coal in 2021 are expected to rebound above 2019 levels to 14.7 Gt CO2, primarily because of increased coal use in China, and will remain only slightly (0.8%) below their previous peak in 2014. Emissions from natural gas use should also rise above 2019 levels in 2021, continuing a steady trend of rising gas use that dates back at least sixty years. Only CO2 emissions from oil remain well below 2019 levels in 2021., 14 pages, 5 figures
Published: 2022
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13. Doubling of annual forest carbon loss over the tropics during the early twenty-first century

Author: Yu Feng, Zhenzhong Zeng, Timothy D. Searchinger, Alan D. Ziegler, Jie Wu, Dashan Wang, Xinyue He, Paul R. Elsen, Philippe Ciais, Rongrong Xu, Zhilin Guo, Liqing Peng, Yiheng Tao, Dominick V. Spracklen, Joseph Holden, Xiaoping Liu, Yi Zheng, Peng Xu, Ji Chen, Xin Jiang, Xiao-Peng Song, Venkataraman Lakshmi, Eric F. Wood, Chunmiao Zheng, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants no. 42071022, 41861124003 and 41890852) and the start-up fund provided by Southern University of Science and Technology (no. 29/Y01296122)
Subjects: tropical forest, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, LAND-USE, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, IMPACT, Geography, Planning and Development, EXPANSION, carbon loss, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, PROTECTED AREAS, CULTIVATION, Global Forest Change (GFC), Urban Studies, carbon cycle, DRIVERS, MAP, STOCKS, DEFORESTATION, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Food Science
Abstract: Previous estimates of tropical forest carbon loss in the twenty-first century using satellite data typically focus on its magnitude, whereas regional loss trajectories and associated drivers are rarely reported. Here we used different high-resolution satellite datasets to show a doubling of gross tropical forest carbon loss worldwide from 0.97 ± 0.16 PgC yr−1 in 2001–2005 to 1.99 ± 0.13 PgC yr−1 in 2015–2019. This increase in carbon loss from forest conversion is higher than in bookkeeping models forced by land-use statistical data, which show no trend or a slight decline in land-use emissions in the early twenty-first century. Most (82%) of the forest carbon loss is at some stages associated with large-scale commodity or small-scale agriculture activities, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia. We find that ~70% of former forest lands converted to agriculture in 2001–2019 remained so in 2020, confirming a dominant role of agriculture in long-term pan-tropical carbon reductions on formerly forested landscapes. The acceleration and high rate of forest carbon loss in the twenty-first century suggest that existing strategies to reduce forest loss are not successful; and this failure underscores the importance of monitoring deforestation trends following the new pledges made in Glasgow.
Published: 2022
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14. Deficiencies of phenology models in simulating spatial and temporal variations in temperate spring leaf phenology

Author: Shihua Li, Yingping Wang, Philippe Ciais, Stephen Sitch, Hisashi Sato, Miaogen Shen, Xiuzhi Chen, Akihiko Ito, Chaoyang Wu, Christopher J. Kucharik, Wenping Yuan, National Sun Yat-Sen University (NSYSU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Exeter, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Beijing Normal University (BNU), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), University of Wisconsin-Madison, and This study was supported by National Key Basic Research Program of China (2018YFA0606104), National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (41925001), and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Ecology, Paleontology, Soil Science, Forestry, Aquatic Science, Chilling conditions, Budburst date, Phenology modelling, Growing degree‐days, Temperature sensitivity measurements, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Water Science and Technology
Abstract: International audience; Leaf phenology is about different stages of leaf life cycle (e.g., budburst, leaf unfolding, leaf coloration, and leaf fall) and how these may affected by seasonal and inter-annual variations in climate, as well as other environmental factors. Leaf phenology plays a significant part in regulating the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, such as carbon balance and water cycles (Jackson et al., 2001; Keenan et al., 2014). Further, it significantly influences the feedback of ecosystems to climate systems by altering energy flux exchange between land
Published: 2022
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15. Pyrogenic carbon decomposition critical to resolving fire’s role in the Earth system

Author: Simon P. K. Bowring, Matthew W. Jones, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Samuel Abiven, Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich (UZH), Laboratoire de géologie de l'ENS (LGENS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CEREEP-Ecotron Ile de France (UMS 3194), Département de Biologie - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: Recently identified post-fire carbon fluxes indicate that, to understand whether global fires represent a net carbon source or sink, one must consider both terrestrial carbon retention through pyrogenic carbon production and carbon losses via multiple pathways. Here these legacy source and sink pathways are quantified using a CMIP6 land surface model to estimate Earth’s fire carbon budget. Over the period 1901–2010, global pyrogenic carbon has driven an annual soil carbon accumulation of 337 TgC yr−1, offset by legacy carbon losses totalling −248 TgC yr−1. The residual of these values constrains the maximum annual pyrogenic carbon mineralization to 89 TgC yr−1 and the pyrogenic carbon mean residence time to 5,387 years, assuming a steady state. The residual is negative over forests and positive over grassland-savannahs (implying a potential sink), suggesting contrasting roles of vegetation in the fire carbon cycle. The paucity of observational constraints for representing pyrogenic carbon mineralization means that, without assuming a steady state, we are unable to determine the sign of the overall fire carbon balance. Constraining pyrogenic carbon mineralization rates, particularly over grassland-savannahs, is a critical research frontier that would enable a fuller understanding of fire’s role in the Earth system and inform attendant land use and conservation policy.
Published: 2022
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16. Global assessment of oil and gas methane ultra-emitters

Author: T. Lauvaux, C. Giron, M. Mazzolini, A. d’Aspremont, R. Duren, D. Cusworth, D. Shindell, P. Ciais, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Kayrros, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire d'informatique de l'école normale supérieure (LIENS), Département d'informatique - ENS Paris (DI-ENS), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Statistical Machine Learning and Parsimony (SIERRA), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Inria de Paris, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria), Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, University of Arizona, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Duke University [Durham], Tel Aviv University (TAU), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), European Space Agency ESTEC contract (4000134070/21/NL/MM/gm), NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, the High Tide Foundation and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, ANR-17-MPGA-0008,CIUDAD,Quantification of urban greenhouse gas emissions(2017), ANR-19-P3IA-0001,PRAIRIE,PaRis Artificial Intelligence Research InstitutE(2019), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Département d'informatique de l'École normale supérieure (DI-ENS), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Inria de Paris
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Multidisciplinary, [STAT.ML]Statistics [stat]/Machine Learning [stat.ML], 13. Climate action, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), FOS: Physical sciences, [INFO.INFO-RO]Computer Science [cs]/Operations Research [cs.RO], [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 7. Clean energy
Abstract: Methane emissions from oil and gas (O&G) production and transmission represent a significant contribution to climate change. These emissions comprise sporadic releases of large amounts of methane during maintenance operations or equipment failures not accounted for in current inventory estimates. We collected and analyzed hundreds of very large releases from atmospheric methane images sampled by the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) over 2019 and 2020 to quantify emissions from O&G ultra-emitters. Ultra-emitters are primarily detected over the largest O&G basins of the world, following a power-law relationship with noticeable variations across countries but similar regression slopes. With a total contribution equivalent to 8-12% of the global O&G production methane emissions, mitigation of ultra-emitters is largely achievable at low costs and would lead to robust net benefits in billions of US dollars for the six major producing countries when incorporating recent estimates of societal costs of methane.
Published: 2022
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17. Atmospheric dryness reduces photosynthesis along a large range of soil water deficits

Author: Zheng Fu, Philippe Ciais, I. Colin Prentice, Pierre Gentine, David Makowski, Ana Bastos, Xiangzhong Luo, Julia K. Green, Paul C. Stoy, Hui Yang, Tomohiro Hajima, AXA Research Fund, Commission of the European Communities, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Imperial College London, Macquarie University, Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Columbia University [New York], Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (MIA Paris-Saclay), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, National University of Singapore (NUS), University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Multidisciplinary, Vapor Pressure, Air, Ecological Parameter Monitoring, Datasets as Topic, Water, General Physics and Astronomy, General Chemistry, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Droughts, Europe, Plant Leaves, Soil, Neural Networks, Computer, Photosynthesis, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract: Both low soil water content (SWC) and high atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) can negatively affect terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). The sensitivity of GPP to soil versus atmospheric dryness is difficult to disentangle, however, because of their covariation. Using global eddy-covariance observations, here we show that a decrease in SWC is not universally associated with GPP reduction. GPP increases in response to decreasing SWC when SWC is high and decreases only when SWC is below a threshold. By contrast, the sensitivity of GPP to an increase of VPD is always negative across the full SWC range. We further find canopy conductance decreases with increasing VPD (irrespective of SWC), and with decreasing SWC on drier soils. Maximum photosynthetic assimilation rate has negative sensitivity to VPD, and a positive sensitivity to decreasing SWC when SWC is high. Earth System Models underestimate the negative effect of VPD and the positive effect of SWC on GPP such that they should underestimate the GPP reduction due to increasing VPD in future climates.
Published: 2022
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18. Decreasing rainfall frequency contributes to earlier leaf onset in northern ecosystems

Author: Jian Wang, Desheng Liu, Philippe Ciais, Josep Peñuelas, Ohio State University [Columbus] (OSU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries, and ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2022
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19. Long-term trends in the Southern Annular Mode from transient Mid- to Late Holocene simulation with the IPSL-CM5A2 climate model

Author: Gabriel Silvestri, Ana Laura Berman, Pascale Braconnot, Olivier Marti, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET), Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos [Buenos Aires] (IFAECI), Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET)-Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales [Buenos Aires] (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET)-Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales [Buenos Aires] (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Model developments and infrastructure is supported by the IPSL Modeling Center and benefts from the L-IPSL LABEX and IPSL Climate Graduate School, and ANR-17-EURE-0006,IPSL-CGS,IPSL Climate graduate school(2017)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2022
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20. Large CO2 emitters as seen from satellite: Comparison to a gridded global emission inventory

Author: Frédéric Chevallier, Grégoire Broquet, Bo Zheng, Philippe Ciais, Annmarie Eldering, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), European Project: 958927,CoCO2 - H2020-EU.2.1.6.3., Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Geophysics, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract: International audience; Using the multiyear archive of the two Orbiting Carbon Observatories (OCO) of NASA, we have retrieved large fossil fuel CO$_2$ emissions (larger than 1.0 ktCO$_2$ h$^{-1}$ per 10$^{-2}$ square degree gridcell) over the globe with a simple plume cross-sectional inversion approach. We have compared our results with a global gridded and hourly inventory. The corresponding OCO emission retrievals explain more than one third of the inventory variance at the corresponding cells and hours. We have binned the data at diverse time scales from the year (with OCO-2) to the average morning and afternoon (with OCO-3). We see consistent variations of the median emissions, indicating that the retrieval-inventory differences (with standard deviations of a few tens of percent) are mostly random and that trends can be calculated robustly in areas of favorableobserving conditions, when the future satellite CO$_2$ imagers provide an order of magnitude more data
Published: 2022
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21. Global soil organic carbon changes and economic revenues with biochar application

Author: Mengjie Han, Qing Zhao, Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Ying‐Ping Wang, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Zhe Zhao, Jingmeng Wang, Yuan Wei, Fengchang Wu, Guangdong Provincial Academy of Environmental Sciences (GDAES), Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42022056, 42175169, 42192574), GDAS’ Project of Science and Technology Development (2020GDASYL-20200101002, 2021GDASYL-20210302003), Guangdong Foundation for Program of Science and Technology Research (2020B1212060048, 2019B121201004), Tsinghua University Initiative Scientific Research Program (20213080023). Contribution from YPW was partially supported by the National Environmental Science Program 2 (NESP2)., ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: TJ807-830, Economic, 010501 environmental sciences, Revenue, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, Renewable energy sources, Climate change, SOC, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Waste Management and Disposal, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, economic revenue, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Forestry, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Biochar, 13. Climate action, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, HD9502-9502.5, Agronomy and Crop Science, Life cycle analysis, Random forest
Abstract: International audience; Biochar has been proposed as a promising negative CO2 emission technology to mitigate future climate change with the additional benefit of increasing agricultural production. However, the spatial responses of soil organic carbon (SOC) to biochar addition in cropland are still uncertain, and the economic feasibility of large-scale biochar implementation remains unclear. Here, we analyzed the response of SOC to biochar addition using 389 paired field measurements. The results show that biochar addition significantly increased SOC by 45.8% on average with large regional variations. Using a random forest model trained with soil, climate, biotic, biochar, and management factors, we found that the response of SOC to biochar addition was mainly dependent on biochar application rates, initial SOC, edaphic (e.g., pH), and climatic (e.g., mean annual precipitation) variables. Combined with the predicted SOC changes to biochar addition on the global cropland, we assessed the revenue of the biochar system based on the current and potential pyrolysis plants in the world using the life-cycle analysis. Net revenue of the currently existing 144 pyrolysis plants increases with larger plant capacity and higher carbon price. Potential revenue of building new plants is high in regions like America and Europe but low in regions with infertile soil, low crop residues availability, and inconvenient transportation. The global CO2 removal of biochar application is 6.6 Tg CO2e (CO2 equivalent) year−1 with a net revenue of $ 177 million dollars at a carbon price of $ 50 t−1 CO2 for current pyrolysis plants with a biomass-processing capacity of 20,000 t year−1. Our study provides a full economic assessment of idealized biochar addition scenarios and identifies the locations with maximal potential revenues with new pyrolysis plants.
Published: 2022
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22. Global Water Scarcity Assessment Incorporating Green Water in Crop Production

Author: Wenfeng Liu, Xingcai Liu, Hong Yang, Philippe Ciais, Yoshihide Wada, China Agricultural University (CAU), Swiss Federal Insitute of Aquatic Science and Technology [Dübendorf] (EAWAG), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), and ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Water Science and Technology
Abstract: Over the past decades, water scarcity has become prevalent in many regions of the world. Previous water scarcity assessments largely considered “blue water” (surface and groundwater) and overlooked “green water” (soil moisture), despite its key role in supporting crop production. Moreover, the long-term evolution of water scarcity remains unclear. Here, we propose an agricultural water scarcity index (WSIAW) that explicitly combines green and blue water. The WSIAW measures the degree to which both green and blue water availabilities can satisfy the agricultural water requirement. The WSIAW can directly indicate water scarcity in both rainfed and irrigated areas, which cannot be captured by the blue water scarcity index alone. Using the WSIAW, we assessed the evolution of water scarcity across regions of the world during 1971–2010 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 arc degree. We found that 22% of the 228 river basins with a WSIAW of >1 presented a much broader geographical coverage compared with estimates of water scarcity based on blue water only (8% of total basins). The WSIAW also exhibited a clear trend of increasing severity over the study period, particularly in major agricultural regions. Expanding cropland and increasing/competing water withdrawals by other sectors were the main reasons for the intensification of water scarcity, which was pronounced in some Asian and African river basins. The proposed WSIAW can be applied to different regions with various scales and is important for addressing global water scarcity issues.
Published: 2022
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23. A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands

Author: Qiu, Chunjing, Ciais, Philippe, Zhu, Dan, Guenet, Bertrand, Chang, Jinfeng, Chaudhary, Nitin, Kleinen, Thomas, Li, Xinyu, Müller, Jurek, Xi, Yi, Zhang, Wenxin, Ballantyne, Ashley, Brewer, Simon, Brovkin, Victor, Charman, Dan, Gustafson, Adrian, Gallego-Sala, Angela, Gasser, Thomas, Holden, Joseph, Joos, Fortunat, Kwon, Min Jung, Lauerwald, Ronny, Miller, Paul, Peng, Shushi, Page, Susan, Smith, Benjamin, Stocker, Benjamin, Sannel, A. Britta K., Salmon, Elodie, Schurgers, Guy, Shurpali, Narasinha, Wårlind, David, Westermann, Sebastian, Kwon, Min, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (MIA Paris-Saclay), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Laboratoire de géologie de l'ENS (LGENS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), European Research Council, ERC: SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, ANR, This work was supported by the European Research Council Synergy grant (SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P) and the French State Aid managed by the ANR under the ?Investissements d'avenir? programme (ANR-16-CONV-0003_Cland). ORCHIDEE-PEAT performed simulations using HPC resources from GENCI-TGCC (2020-A0070106328). A.V.G.-S. was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC standard grant no. NE/I012915/1 and no. NE/S001166/1). W.Z. acknowledges funding from the Swedish Research Council FORMAS 2016-01201 and Swedish National Space Agency 209/19. N.C. acknowledges funding by the Nunataryuk (EU grant agreement no. 773421) and the Swedish Research Council FORMAS (contract no. 2019-01151). LPJ-GUESS_dyn simulations were performed on the supercomputing facilities at the University of Oslo, Norway, and on the Aurora and Tetralith resources of the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at the Lund University Centre for Scientific and Technical Computing (Lunarc), project no. 2021/2-61 and no. 2021/2-28, and Link?ping University, project no. snic2020/5-563. A.G. P.A.M. W.Z. B.S. D.W. and N.C. acknowledge support from the strategic research areas Modeling the Regional and Global Earth System (MERGE) and Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate (BECC) at Lund University. P.A.M. and D.W. received financial support from the H2020 CRESCENDO project (grant agreement no. 641816). LPJ-GUESS simulations were enabled by resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at LUNARC partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through grant agreement no. 2018-05973. J.M. and F.J. acknowledge financial support by the Swiss National Science Foundation (no. 200020_172476 and no. 200020_200511) and funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 820989 (project COMFORT) and no. 821003 (project 4C). The work reflects only the authors views, the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains. B.G. received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 641816 (CRESCENDO) and no. 821003 (4C project). B.D.S was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation grant no. PCEFP2_181115. T.K. acknowledges support from the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) through the PalMod programme (grant no. 01LP1507B and no. 01LP1921A). LPJ-MPI experiments were performed at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), using resources from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. N.J.S. acknowledges financial support from Academy of Finland (no. 296887 and no. 334422) and the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (no. VN/28562/2020). J.C. acknowledged support from the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (no. 2021QNA6005). D.Z. acknowledges funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 42101090 and no. 41988101). W.Z and G.S. acknowledge support from the Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF100). C.Q. P.C. D.Z. and B.G. designed the research, C.Q. and P.C. drafted the manuscript, J.C. prepared the climate forcing for ORCHIDEE-PEAT and computed estimates of global and Northern Hemisphere CO2 emissions from ISIMIP2b terrestrial biosphere models, C.Q. N.C. T.K. X.Y.L. J.M. Y.X. and W.Z. performed model simulations, A.V.G.-S. and S.C.B. provided estimates for future peat carbon sink from Gallego-Sala et al.15, all authors contributed to the interpretation of the results and draft revision., ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Key Laboratory of Plant-Soil Interactions - College of Resources and Environmental Sciences (PSI), China Agricultural University (CAU), Department of Geosciences [Oslo], Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences [Oslo], University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO), Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund], Lund University [Lund], Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management [Copenhagen] (IGN), Faculty of Science [Copenhagen], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-Faculty of Science [Copenhagen], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, University of Utah, College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], University of Exeter, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), School of Geography [Leeds], University of Leeds, University of Leicester, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment [Richmond] (HIE), Western Sydney University, Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Department of Physical Geography [Stockholm], Stockholm University, Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement et de l'Espace (LPC2E), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers en région Centre (OSUC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National d’Études Spatiales [Paris] (CNES), and Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 530 Physics, methane, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, carbon dioxide, carbon-cycle feedback, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, long-term climate change, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, land surface models, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), peatland, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, permafrost
Abstract: Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21°C (range, 0.09–0.49°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.
Published: 2022
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24. Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios

Author: Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, Philippe Ciais, Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), This research has been supported by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (grant no. ANR-19-MPGA-0008), Horizon 2020 (CONSTRAIN (grant no. 820829)), the Agence de la transition écologique (convention on financial support for climate services), the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (grant no. JPMXD0717935715), and the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (grant no. JPMEERF20192004)., and ANR-19-MPGA-0008,PRATO,Achieving the Paris Agreement Temperature Targets after Overshoot(2019)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract: Stringent mitigation pathways frame the deployment of second-generation bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to generate negative CO2 emissions. This bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) technology facilitates the achievement of the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Here, we use five state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) to explore the consequences of large-scale BECCS deployment on the climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under the CMIP6 SSP5-3.4-0S overshoot scenario keeping in mind that all these models use generic crop vegetation to simulate BECCS. First, we evaluate the land cover representation by ESMs and highlight the inconsistencies that emerge during translation of the data from integrated assessment models (IAMB) that are used to develop the scenario. Second, we evaluate the land-use change (LUC) emissions of ESMs against bookkeeping models. Finally, we show that an extensive cropland expansion for BECCS causes ecosystem carbon loss that drives the acceleration of carbon turnover and affects the CO2 fertilization effect- and climate-change-driven land carbon uptake. Over the 2000-2100 period, the LUC for BECCS leads to an offset of the CO2 fertilization effect-driven carbon uptake by 12.2 % and amplifies the climate-change-driven carbon loss by 14.6 %. A human choice on land area allocation for energy crops should take into account not only the potential amount of the bioenergy yield but also the LUC emissions, and the associated loss of future potential change in the carbon uptake. The dependency of the land carbon uptake on LUC is strong in the SSP5-3.4-OS scenario, but it also affects other Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios and should be taken into account by the IAM teams. Future studies should further investigate the trade-offs between the carbon gains from the bioenergy yield and losses from the reduced CO2 fertilization effect-driven carbon uptake where BECCS is applied., Earth System Dynamics, 13 (2), ISSN:2190-4987, ISSN:2190-4979
Published: 2022
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25. Uncovering the critical soil moisture thresholds of plant water stress for European ecosystems

Author: Zheng Fu, Philippe Ciais, David Makowski, Ana Bastos, Paul C. Stoy, Andreas Ibrom, Alexander Knohl, Mirco Migliavacca, Matthias Cuntz, Ladislav Šigut, Matthias Peichl, Denis Loustau, Tarek S. El‐Madany, Nina Buchmann, Mana Gharun, Ivan Janssens, Christian Markwitz, Thomas Grünwald, Corinna Rebmann, Meelis Mölder, Andrej Varlagin, Ivan Mammarella, Pasi Kolari, Christian Bernhofer, Michal Heliasz, Caroline Vincke, Andrea Pitacco, Edoardo Cremonese, Lenka Foltýnová, Jean‐Pierre Wigneron, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (MIA Paris-Saclay), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet = Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, SILVA (SILVA), AgroParisTech-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Global Change Research Centre (CzechGlobe), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), University of Antwerp (UA), Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology [Dresden], Technische Universität Dresden = Dresden University of Technology (TU Dresden), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund], Lund University [Lund], A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences [Moscow] (RAS), Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki, Centre for Environmental and Climate Research [Lund] (CEC), Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] (ELI), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Università degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua (Unipd), Funding information European Research Council Synergy project, Grant/Award Number: SyG2013-610028, European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: surface energy partitioning, critical soil moisture threshold, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Gross primary production, Surface energy partitioning, 0207 environmental engineering, drought, 02 engineering and technology, Forests, 01 natural sciences, Vapor pressure deficit, Soil, Europe, evaporative fraction, gross primary production, vapor pressure deficit, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Humans, Environmental Chemistry, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 020701 environmental engineering, Evaporative fraction, Biology, Ecosystem, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, SDG 15 - Life on Land, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, Dehydration, Ecology, Drought, 15. Life on land, Droughts, Chemistry, 13. Climate action, Critical soil moisture threshold
Abstract: Understanding the critical soil moisture (SM) threshold (θcrit) of plant water stress and land surface energy partitioning is a basis to evaluate drought impacts and improve models for predicting future ecosystem condition and climate. Quantifying the θcrit across biomes and climates is challenging because observations of surface energy fluxes and SM remain sparse. Here, we used the latest database of eddy covariance measurements to estimate θcrit across Europe by evaluating evaporative fraction (EF)-SM relationships and investigating the covariance between vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and gross primary production (GPP) during SM dry-down periods. We found that the θcrit and soil matric potential threshold in Europe are 16.5% and −0.7 MPa, respectively. Surface energy partitioning characteristics varied among different vegetation types; EF in savannas had the highest sensitivities to SM in water-limited stage, and the lowest in forests. The sign of the covariance between daily VPD and GPP consistently changed from positive to negative during dry-down across all sites when EF shifted from relatively high to low values. This sign of the covariance changed after longer period of SM decline in forests than in grasslands and savannas. Estimated θcrit from the VPD–GPP covariance method match well with the EF–SM method, showing this covariance method can be used to detect the θcrit. We further found that soil texture dominates the spatial variability of θcrit while shortwave radiation and VPD are the major drivers in determining the spatial pattern of EF sensitivities. Our results highlight for the first time that the sign change of the covariance between daily VPD and GPP can be used as an indicator of how ecosystems transition from energy to SM limitation. We also characterized the corresponding θcrit and its drivers across diverse ecosystems in Europe, an essential variable to improve the representation of water stress in land surface models., Global Change Biology, 28 (6), ISSN:1354-1013, ISSN:1365-2486
Published: 2022
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26. Global cooling induced by biophysical effects of bioenergy crop cultivation

Author: Jingmeng Wang, Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Laurent Z. X. Li, Jinfeng Chang, Daniel Goll, Thomas Gasser, Xiaomeng Huang, Narayanappa Devaraju, Olivier Boucher, Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Zhejiang University, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)
Subjects: Crops, Agricultural, Carbon Sequestration, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Science, Climate Change, General Physics and Astronomy, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Article, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, 03 medical and health sciences, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Climate-change mitigation, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 2. Zero hunger, Spatial Analysis, 0303 health sciences, Multidisciplinary, Temperature, General Chemistry, Models, Theoretical, 15. Life on land, Energy Transfer, 13. Climate action
Abstract: Bioenergy crop with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key negative emission technology to meet carbon neutrality. However, the biophysical effects of widespread bioenergy crop cultivation on temperature remain unclear. Here, using a coupled atmosphere-land model with an explicit representation of lignocellulosic bioenergy crops, we find that after 50 years of large-scale bioenergy crop cultivation following plausible scenarios, global air temperature decreases by 0.03~0.08 °C, with strong regional contrasts and interannual variability. Over the cultivated regions, woody crops induce stronger cooling effects than herbaceous crops due to larger evapotranspiration rates and smaller aerodynamic resistance. At the continental scale, air temperature changes are not linearly proportional to the cultivation area. Sensitivity tests show that the temperature change is robust for eucalypt but more uncertain for switchgrass among different cultivation maps. Our study calls for new metrics to take the biophysical effects into account when assessing the climate mitigation capacity of BECCS., Bioenergy crops has been proposed as a climate mitigation measure, but how the biophysical effects of large-scale cultivation would influence the climate is not well known. Here, the authors use models to show that large-scale cultivation could cool the global land by 0.03 to 0.08 °C.
Published: 2021
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27. Climate warming from managed grasslands cancels the cooling effect of carbon sinks in sparsely grazed and natural grasslands

Author: Chao Yue, Shushi Peng, Michael Obersteiner, Philippe Ciais, Pete Smith, Daniel S. Goll, Chunjing Qiu, Thomas Gasser, Hanqin Tian, Dan Zhu, Jinfeng Chang, Nicolas Viovy, Victoria Naipal, Bertrand Guenet, Petr Havlik, Mario Herrero, Wei Li, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017), European Project: 776810,H2020,H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB,VERIFY(2018), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Science, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, Article, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Grassland, Attribution, Environmental protection, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, geography, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, Soil organic matter, Global warming, Carbon sink, Carbon cycle, General Chemistry, Soil carbon, 15. Life on land, Radiative forcing, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science
Abstract: Grasslands absorb and release carbon dioxide (CO2), emit methane (CH4) from grazing livestock, and emit nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils. Little is known about how the fluxes of these three greenhouse gases, from managed and natural grasslands worldwide, have contributed to past climate change, or the roles of managed pastures versus natural grasslands. Here, global trends and regional patterns of the full greenhouse gas balance of grasslands are estimated for the period 1750 to 2012. A new spatially explicit land surface model is applied, to separate the direct effects of human activities from land management and the indirect effects from climate change, increasing CO2 and regional changes in nitrogen deposition. Direct human management activities are simulated to have caused grasslands to switch from a sink to a source of greenhouse gas, because of increased livestock numbers and accelerated conversion of natural lands to pasture. However, climate change drivers contributed a net carbon sink in soil organic matter, mainly from the increased productivity of grasslands due to increased CO2 and nitrogen deposition. The net radiative forcing of all grasslands is currently close to neutral, but has been increasing since the 1960s. Here, we show that the net global climate warming caused by managed grassland cancels the net climate cooling from carbon sinks in sparsely grazed and natural grasslands. In the face of future climate change and increased demand for livestock products, these findings highlight the need to use sustainable management to preserve and enhance soil carbon storage in grasslands and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from managed grasslands., Grasslands, and the livestock that live there, are dynamic sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, but what controls these fluxes remains poorly characterized. Here the authors show that on the global level, grasslands are climate neutral owing to the cancelling effects of managed vs. natural systems.
Published: 2021
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28. A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback

Author: Xuanze Zhang, Yiqi Luo, Kun Huang, Philippe Ciais, Wei Zhao, Xiaogu Zheng, Zhonglei Wang, Yongqiang Zhang, Ying-Ping Wang, Peter Rayner, Jing Tian, Shilong Piao, Jianyang Xia, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), This study was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFA0604603), the CAS Pioneer Talent Program, and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0602501). X.Z.Z. was also sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42001019) and the Shanghai Sailing Program (19YF1413100). Y.P.W. was supported by the National Environmental Science Program (climate change and earth system science). P.C. acknowledges support from the European Research Council Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P. We gratefully thank Dr. Pierre Friedlingstein for providing constructive comments. We acknowledge the following data providers and model developers: the Global Carbon Project, the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU), the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the NOAA, and Berkeley Earth. We also gratefully thank Drs Chris Jones and Vivek Arora for providing the outputs of 11 C4MIP and nine CMIP5 models., and European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Scale (ratio), Science, General Physics and Astronomy, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Article, Carbon cycle, Projection and prediction, symbols.namesake, Control theory, Feedback analysis, Sensitivity (control systems), [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Climate and Earth system modelling, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Multidisciplinary, General Chemistry, Function (mathematics), Feedback loop, Earth system science, 13. Climate action, Fourier analysis, symbols, Environmental science
Abstract: The climate-carbon cycle feedback is one of the most important climate-amplifying feedbacks of the Earth system, and is quantified as a function of carbon-concentration feedback parameter (β) and carbon-climate feedback parameter (γ). However, the global climate-amplifying effect from this feedback loop (determined by the gain factor, g) has not been quantified from observations. Here we apply a Fourier analysis-based carbon cycle feedback framework to the reconstructed records from 1850 to 2017 and 1000 to 1850 to estimate β and γ. We show that the β-feedback varies by less than 10% with an average of 3.22 ± 0.32 GtC ppm−1 for 1880–2017, whereas the γ-feedback increases from −33 ± 14 GtC K−1 on a decadal scale to −122 ± 60 GtC K−1 on a centennial scale for 1000–1850. Feedback analysis further reveals that the current amplification effect from the carbon cycle feedback is small (g is 0.01 ± 0.05), which is much lower than the estimates by the advanced Earth system models (g is 0.09 ± 0.04 for the historical period and is 0.15 ± 0.08 for the RCP8.5 scenario), implying that the future allowable CO2 emissions could be 9 ± 7% more. Therefore, our findings provide new insights about the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedback and about observational constraints on models for projecting future climate., How to curb climate change is uncertain, in part because determination of allowable emissions depends on models with low accuracy. Here the authors re-analyze climate-carbon feedbacks and find that CO2 emissions could be 9 ± 7% higher and still meet Paris Agreement goals.
Published: 2021
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29. Reply to comment by Rigolot on 'Narratives Behind Livestock Methane Mitigation Studies Matter'

Author: Philippe Ciais, Yi Yin, Petr Havlik, Jinfeng Chang, Mario T. Herrero, Shushi Peng, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), CSIRO, St Lucia, Qld, Australia, Partenaires INRAE, ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, business.industry, General Medicine, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, Methane, chemistry.chemical_compound, Geography, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Livestock, Narrative, business, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: This article is a reply to a comment by Rigolot (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000526.; International audience; A comment by Dr. Rigolot acknowledged the scientific value of our recent study on livestock methane emissions and mitigation potentials, while highlighting that our study should better “cultivate synergies between production and more ambitious demand-side efforts.” The author's comment questioned our narrative to be inadvertently (not intentionally) contributing to a “climate delay discourse” in several ways that might hinder ambitious mitigation efforts. This is indeed a welcome perspective that merits further comment.
Published: 2021
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30. Narratives Behind Livestock Methane Mitigation Studies Matter

Author: Chang, Jinfeng, Peng, Shushi, Yin, Yi, Ciais, Philippe, Havlik, Petr, Herrero, Mario, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Territoires (Territoires), and AgroParisTech-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)
Subjects: narrative, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, Emerging technologies, Land management, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, 12. Responsible consumption, mitigation, 11. Sustainability, Production (economics), [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Technological change, transformation, General Medicine, 15. Life on land, Livelihood, livestock, Incentive, 13. Climate action, Social transformation, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Sustainability, Business
Abstract: Editorial Material; International audience; The spirit of our paper is actually well aligned with Dr. Rigolot's comment. The challenge of tackling climate change is of the extent that no options can be left unused. We stated in our original paper that "promoting balanced, healthy, and environmentally sustainable diets in most countries can mitigate future livestock methane emissions," and "efforts on the demand-side … as assumed in the TS (toward sustainability) scenario (FAO, 2018), will not be sufficient to mitigate livestock methane emissions without parallel efforts to improve production efficiency." Thus bringing the supply side solutions prominently forward is needed to re-balance "opposite narratives, highlighting the importance of reducing animal product consumption to a minimum, without respect to the mitigation potential from the production-side." As stated in our original paper the simultaneous pursuit of both strategies is needed. There are also some minor considerations to the interesting typology of "discourses of climate delay." "Push non-transformative solutions" While we acknowledged that diet change can be transformative in lifestyle, the production-side transformations underlying the assumed improvements in greenhouse gas emission efficiency are from many perspectives profound too. Production efficiency gains imply necessary transformation of society and economy in addition to technology improvement. More efficient practices/ technologies can become available and affordable through further research and development, while technological change at large scale is after all largely dependent on societal transformation and vice versa. For example, one of the solutions proposed to increase production efficiency "transition of livestock production systems from extensive rangeland systems to mixed crop-livestock systems, and through improving livestock management within the existing systems" would require substantial transformation of land-use and land management that involves transformative shifts in agricultural and farm structure and livelihoods. Many farmers tend to stick with what they know works for them and perhaps worked for their elders. Adopting new technologies and management practices can involve many socioeconomic impediments. For instance, in the developing world, resources (e.g., financing) and knowledge for moving to more intensive management systems may be severely lacking, as well as incentives at sectorial level, for example, for the (ongoing) intensification of beef production in Brazil (Vale et al., 2019). In the developed world, re-integrating livestock and crop systems also requires learning new things, additional investment and taking on new risks. Policies and efforts for knowledge and technology transfer, capacity-building, and creating financial incentives are important for such profound transformation (Gerber et al., 2013). "Surrendering (to change is impossible)" As scientists we have to recognize that our understanding and the empirical foundations of the behavioral change needed to deliver sufficient diet shifts remains limited. In
Published: 2021
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31. Near-real-time global gridded daily CO2 emissions

Author: Duo Cui, Zhu Liu, Hengqi Wang, Monica Crippa, Biqing Zhu, Feifan Yan, Da Huo, Yilong Wang, Steven J. Davis, Philippe Ciais, Qiang Zhang, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Diego Guizzardi, Pierre Gentine, Frédéric Chevallier, Xinyu Dou, Taochun Sun, Piyu Ke, Zheng Bo, Efisio Solazzo, Zhu Deng, Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Ocean University of China (OUC), Columbia University [New York], and The authors acknowledge the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 41921005 and 71874097), Beijing Natural Science Foundation (JQ19032), and the Qiu Shi Science & Technologies Foundation
Subjects: Science (General), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Q, Aviation, Ke, gridded CO2 emission, Cui, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Energy policy, M, S.J, Q1-390, Deng, Ciais, 11. Sustainability, Wang, E, Z, Davis, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, Multidisciplinary, P, T, Sun, H, daily, Bo, Solazzo, D, Janssens-Maenhout, Yan, Y, Real-time computing, 03 medical and health sciences, Affordable and Clean Energy, Crippa, Near-real-time global gridded daily CO 2 emissions, G, Report, near real time, X, Zhu, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Huo, global change, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Consumption (economics), The Innovation Dou, business.industry, Fossil fuel, Global change, Liu, Climate Action, B, Zhang, Guizzardi, Carbon neutrality, 13. Climate action, F, Chevallier, Spatial ecology, Environmental science, Satellite, Gentine, business
Abstract: Precise and high-resolution carbon dioxide (CO2) emission data is of great importance in achieving carbon neutrality around the world. Here we present for the first time the near-real-time Global Gridded Daily CO2 Emissions Dataset (GRACED) from fossil fuel and cement production with a global spatial resolution of 0.1° by 0.1° and a temporal resolution of 1 day. Gridded fossil emissions are computed for different sectors based on the daily national CO2 emissions from near-real-time dataset (Carbon Monitor), the spatial patterns of point source emission dataset Global Energy Infrastructure Emissions Database (GID), Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), and spatiotemporal patters of satellite nitrogen dioxide (NO2) retrievals. Our study on the global CO2 emissions responds to the growing and urgent need for high-quality, fine-grained, near-real-time CO2 emissions estimates to support global emissions monitoring across various spatial scales. We show the spatial patterns of emission changes for power, industry, residential consumption, ground transportation, domestic and international aviation, and international shipping sectors from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2020. This gives thorough insights into the relative contributions from each sector. Furthermore, it provides the most up-to-date and fine-grained overview of where and when fossil CO2 emissions have decreased and rebounded in response to emergencies (e.g., coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]) and other disturbances of human activities of any previously published dataset. As the world recovers from the pandemic and decarbonizes its energy systems, regular updates of this dataset will enable policymakers to more closely monitor the effectiveness of climate and energy policies and quickly adapt., Graphical abstract, Public summary • We present the first near-real-time Global Gridded Daily CO2 Emissions Dataset (GRACED) • GRACED can be updated in near real time with a spatial resolution of 0.1° and a temporal resolution of 1 day • GRACED shows gridded emissions of seven sectors: power, industry, residential consumption, ground transport, domestic aviation, international aviation, and international shipping • Regular updates of GRACED will enable policymakers to more closely monitor the effectiveness of climate and energy policies and quickly adapt on various spatial scales
Published: 2021
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32. New metrology for radon at the environmental level

Author: Ileana Radulescu, Susana Alexandra Barbosa, Arturo Vargas, Petr P. S. Otahal, Edward Chung, Mihail-Razvan Ioan, Roger Curcoll, Camille Yver-Kwok, Annette Röttger, Marta Fuente, S. Röttger, Viacheslav Morosh, Tim Arnold, Dafina Kikaj, Claudia Grossi, Scott D. Chambers, Miguel Ángel Hernández-Ceballos, Florian Mertes, Giorgia Cinelli, Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt [Braunschweig] (PTB), Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering, Technology and Science [Porto] (INESC TEC), National Physical Laboratory [Teddington] (NPL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), This project has received funding from the EMPIR programme co-financed by the Participating States and from theEurope’n Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. 19ENV01 traceRadon denotes the EMPIR projectreference., Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Unitat Transversal de Gestió de l'Àmbit de l'Enginyeria Industrial de Barcelona, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Institut de Tècniques Energètiques, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Doctorat en Enginyeria Nuclear i de les Radiacions Ionitzants, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. DRM - Dosimetria i Radiofísica Mèdica, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, chemistry.chemical_element, Radon, environmental measurements, 010501 environmental sciences, Metrology, 01 natural sciences, Química ambiental, Tracer, Environmental level, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Instrumentation, Engineering (miscellaneous), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Remote sensing, Radó, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Applied Mathematics, Enginyeria química::Química del medi ambient [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Environmental monitoring, radon, tracer, metrology, chemistry, Seguiment ambiental, 13. Climate action, Environmental chemistry, Environmental science, Environmental measurements, Metrologia
Abstract: International audience; Radon gas is the largest source of public exposure to naturally occurring radioactivity. However, radon is also a useful tracer for understanding atmospheric processes, assessing the accuracy of chemical transport models, and enabling integrated emissions estimates of greenhouse gases. A sound metrological system for low level atmospheric radon observations is therefore needed for the benefit of the atmospheric, climate and radiation protection research communities. To this end, here we present a new calibration method for activity concentrations below 20 Bq m−3 and a prototype of the first portable radon monitor capable of achieving uncertainties of 5% (at k = 2) at these concentrations. Compliance checking of policy-driven regulations regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is an essential component of climate change mitigation efforts. Independent, reliable 'top down' methods that can be applied consistently for estimating local- to regional-scale GHG emissions (such as the radon tracer method (RTM)) are an essential part of this process. The RTM relies upon observed radon and GHG concentrations and measured or modeled radon fluxes. Reliable radon flux maps could also significantly aid EU member states comply with European COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2013/59/EURATOM. This article also introduces the traceRadon project, key aims of which include outlining a standardized approach for application of the RTM, creating infrastructure with a traceability chain for radon concentration and radon flux measurements, and developing tools for the validation of radon flux models. Since radon progeny dominate the terrestrial gamma dose rate, the planned traceRadon activities are also expected to improve the sensitivity of radiation protection early warning networks because of the correlation known to exist between radon flux and ambient equivalent dose rates.
Published: 2021
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33. ASCAT IB: A radar-based vegetation optical depth retrieved from the ASCAT scatterometer satellite

Author: Nicolas Baghdadi, Lei Fan, Thomas Jagdhuber, Frédéric Frappart, Philippe Ciais, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Xiaojun Li, Xiaojing Bai, Mengjia Wang, Mehrez Zribi, Xiangzhuo Liu, Christophe Moisy, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Chongqing University [Chongqing], Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), German Aerospace Center (DLR), Beijing Normal University (BNU), Nanjing University (NJU), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, NDVI, Soil Science, 01 natural sciences, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, 03 medical and health sciences, forest, Computers in Earth Sciences, Leaf area index, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Water content, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Remote sensing, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, biomass, VOD, Attenuation, Geology, Active microwave, Vegetation, Enhanced vegetation index, 15. Life on land, Scatterometer, Tree height, EVI, LAI, Lidar, ASCAT, 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Africa, Environmental science, Satellite
Abstract: International audience; Vegetation optical depth (VOD), as a microwave-based vegetation index for vegetation water and biomass content, is increasingly used to study the impact of global climate and environmental changes on vegetation. Currently, VOD is mainly retrieved from passive microwave data and few studies focused on VOD retrievals from active microwave data. The Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) provides long-term C-band backscatter data at Vertical-Vertical (VV) polarization. In this study, a new ASCAT INRAE Bordeaux (IB) VOD (hereafter, IB VOD), was developed based on the Water Cloud Model (WCM) coupled with the Ulaby linear model for soil backscattering. The main features of IB VOD are that (i) the ERA5-Land soil moisture (SM) dataset was used as an auxiliary SM dataset in the retrievals, (ii) pixel-based soil model parameters were mapped using Random Forest (RF), and (iii) the vegetation model parameter was calibrated for each day. The IB VOD product was retrieved over Africa during 2015–2019, and its performances were evaluated in space and time by comparing with aboveground biomass (AGB), lidar tree height (TH), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and leaf area index (LAI). Results were inter-compared with three other VOD products at the same frequency. In terms of spatial correlation with AGB (R = 0.92) and TH (R = 0.89), IB VOD outperforms the other VOD products, suggesting IB VOD has a strong ability to capture spatial patterns of AGB and TH. By comparing all VOD products against NDVI, EVI and LAI, we found that the highest temporal correlation with NDVI (EVI, LAI) was obtained with IB VOD over 29.94% (36.65%, 30.19%) of the study region. Considering all three vegetations indices, highest temporal correlation values with IB VOD could be particularly noted for deciduous broadleaf forests, woody savannas and savannas.
Published: 2021
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34. A meta-analysis of 1,119 manipulative experiments on terrestrial carbon-cycling responses to global change

Author: Mengmei Zheng, Jiquan Chen, Yiqi Luo, Mark J. Hovenden, Chuang Yan, Kesheng Zhang, Pengshuai Shao, Mingxing Zhong, Pamela H. Templer, Guoyong Li, Fanglong Su, Shilong Piao, Simone Fatichi, Hu Mengjun, Lindsey E. Rustad, Zhongling Yang, Jingyi Ru, Jianwu Tang, Claus Beier, Jakob Zscheischler, Jian Song, Hongyan Han, Yan Hui, Yinzhan Liu, Philippe Ciais, Sara Vicca, Jiali Wang, Sebastian Leuzinger, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Fan Yang, Melinda D. Smith, Gaigai Ma, Aimée T. Classen, Qiang Liu, Kirsten S. Hofmockel, Richard J. Norby, Xiaoming Li, Bin Liu, Alan K. Knapp, Yanchun Liu, J. Adam Langley, Dali Guo, Shuli Niu, Shiqiang Wan, Ying-Ping Wang, Lingjie Lei, Paul Kardol, Lingli Liu, Yuan Miao, Xiaona Li, R. Quinn Thomas, Zhenxing Zhou, Ang Zhang, Ying Li, Qian Zhang, Dandan Wang, Richard P. Phillips, Lara M. Kueppers, Jianyang Xia, Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales (Inalco), Henan University, Kaifeng (HENU), Henan University, Kaifeng, Peking University [Beijing], Department of Biology [Fort Collins], Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, University of Antwerp (UA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institute for Applied Ecology New Zealand (AENZ), Auckland University of Technology (AUT), Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), East China Normal University [Shangaï] (ECNU), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma (OU), Center of Forest Ecosystem Studies and Qianyanzhou Station, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, University of Massachusetts [Amherst] (UMass Amherst), University of Massachusetts System (UMASS), Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota [Twin Cities] (UMN), University of Minnesota System-University of Minnesota System, CGCEO/Geography, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research [Aspendale], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), University of Science and Technology of China [Hefei] (USTC), State Key Laboratory of Chemical Resource Engineering and Beijing Engineering Center for Hierarchical Catalysts, University of Delaware [Newark], Laboratoire Traitement et Communication de l'Information (LTCI), Télécom ParisTech-Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] (IMT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), SRI International [Menlo Park] (SRI), Glorious Sun School of Business and Management, Donghua University [Shanghai], Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Henan University, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, China, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, Atmospheric sciences, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Carbon Cycle, Carbon cycle, 11. Sustainability, Temperate climate, Ecosystem, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, skin and connective tissue diseases, Biology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Ecology, Biosphere, Primary production, Global change, 15. Life on land, Carbon, Europe, Chemistry, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, sense organs, Ecosystem ecology
Abstract: Direct quantification of terrestrial biosphere responses to global change is crucial for projections of future climate change in Earth system models. Here, we synthesized ecosystem carbon-cycling data from 1,119 experiments performed over the past four decades concerning changes in temperature, precipitation, CO2 and nitrogen across major terrestrial vegetation types of the world. Most experiments manipulated single rather than multiple global change drivers in temperate ecosystems of the USA, Europe and China. The magnitudes of warming and elevated CO2 treatments were consistent with the ranges of future projections, whereas those of precipitation changes and nitrogen inputs often exceeded the projected ranges. Increases in global change drivers consistently accelerated, but decreased precipitation slowed down carbon-cycle processes. Nonlinear (including synergistic and antagonistic) effects among global change drivers were rare. Belowground carbon allocation responded negatively to increased precipitation and nitrogen addition and positively to decreased precipitation and elevated CO2. The sensitivities of carbon variables to multiple global change drivers depended on the background climate and ecosystem condition, suggesting that Earth system models should be evaluated using site-specific conditions for best uses of this large dataset. Together, this synthesis underscores an urgent need to explore the interactions among multiple global change drivers in under-represented regions such as semi-arid ecosystems, forests in the tropics and subtropics, and Arctic tundra when forecasting future terrestrial carbon-climate feedback. National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China [31430015, 31830012]; US NSFNational Science Foundation (NSF) [DEB-0955771]; ClimMani COST actionEuropean Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) [ES1308] We thank J. Wang (Hebei University), S. Yang (Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences), L. Zhou (East China Normal University), C. Qiao (Xinyang Normal University) and H. Li (Henan University) for their help in meta-analyses and interaction analyses, and H. Li, Y. Liu (Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences) and Y. He (Peking University) for their help in plotting figures. This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 31430015 and 31830012). This study emerged from the INTERFACE Workshop in Beijing, China (https://www.bio.purdue.edu/INTERFACE/) supported by the US NSF DEB-0955771. We also acknowledge support from the ClimMani COST action (ES1308). Public domain – authored by a U.S. government employee
Published: 2019
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35. Data-driven estimates of global nitrous oxide emissions from croplands

Author: Francesco N. Tubiello, Qihui Wang, Feng Zhou, Shilong Piao, Robert B. Jackson, Philippe Ciais, Wilfried Winiwarter, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Josep G. Canadell, Ziyin Shang, Xiaoqing Cui, Hanqin Tian, Shu Tao, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), University of Zielona Góra, Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Auburn University (AU), Global Carbon Project (GCP), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO)-Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41671464, 7181101181), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFD0800501, 2018YFC0213304) and the 111 Project (B14001), the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) (P 29130-G27), ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: emission factor, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, AcademicSubjects/SCI00010, temporal trend, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, Spatial distribution, 01 natural sciences, chemistry.chemical_compound, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Multidisciplinary, nitrous oxide, flux upscaling, Nitrous oxide, emission inventories, Tier 1 network, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Earth Sciences, Environmental science, agricultural soils, AcademicSubjects/MED00010, Research Article
Abstract: Croplands are the single largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N2O) globally, yet their estimates remain difficult to verify when using Tier 1 and 3 methods of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we re-evaluate global cropland-N2O emissions in 1961–2014, using N-rate-dependent emission factors (EFs) upscaled from 1206 field observations in 180 global distributed sites and high-resolution N inputs disaggregated from sub-national surveys covering 15593 administrative units. Our results confirm IPCC Tier 1 default EFs for upland crops in 1990–2014, but give a ∼15% lower EF in 1961–1989 and a ∼67% larger EF for paddy rice over the full period. Associated emissions (0.82 ± 0.34 Tg N yr–1) are probably one-quarter lower than IPCC Tier 1 global inventories but close to Tier 3 estimates. The use of survey-based gridded N-input data contributes 58% of this emission reduction, the rest being explained by the use of observation-based non-linear EFs. We conclude that upscaling N2O emissions from site-level observations to global croplands provides a new benchmark for constraining IPCC Tier 1 and 3 methods. The detailed spatial distribution of emission data is expected to inform advancement towards more realistic and effective mitigation pathways.
Published: 2019
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36. Greenhouse Gas Concentration and Volcanic Eruptions Controlled the Variability of Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over the Last Millennium

Author: Shilong Piao, Ying-Ping Wang, Shushi Peng, Philippe Ciais, Xuanze Zhang, Peter Rayner, Jeremy D. Silver, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Earth Sciences [Melbourne], Faculty of Science [Melbourne], University of Melbourne-University of Melbourne, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Biome, Forcing (mathematics), Carbon Cycling, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, Biogeosciences, 01 natural sciences, Biogeochemical Kinetics and Reaction Modeling, Global Change from Geodesy, Oceanography: Biological and Chemical, Land use, land-use change and forestry, lcsh:GC1-1581, earth system modeling, Research Articles, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, geography.geographical_feature_category, Carbon uptake, Biogeochemistry, Physical Modeling, Internal variability, CESM, Atmospheric Processes, variability in NBP, Paleoclimatology and Paleoceanography, Cryosphere, Biogeochemical Cycles, Processes, and Modeling, Research Article, the last millennium, Global Climate Models, Climate change, lcsh:Oceanography, Paleoceanography, Environmental Chemistry, Geodesy and Gravity, Global Change, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Paleoclimatology, lcsh:Physical geography, land carbon cycle, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, geography, 15. Life on land, Volcano, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, decadal‐to‐centennial timescale, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, lcsh:GB3-5030, Natural Hazards
Abstract: The terrestrial net biome production (NBP) is considered as one of the major drivers of interannual variation in atmospheric CO2 levels. However, the determinants of variability in NBP under the background climate (i.e., preindustrial conditions) remain poorly understood, especially on decadal‐to‐centennial timescales. We analyzed 1,000‐year simulations spanning 850‐1,849 from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and found that the variability in NBP and heterotrophic respiration (RH) were largely driven by fluctuations in the net primary production (NPP) and carbon turnover rates in response to climate variability. On interannual to multidecadal timescales, variability in NBP was dominated by variation in NPP, while variability in RH was driven by variation in turnover rates. However, on centennial timescales (100‐1,000 years), the RH variability became more tightly coupled to that of NPP. The NBP variability on centennial timescales was low, due to the near cancellation of NPP and NPP‐driven RH changes arising from climate internal variability and external forcings: preindustrial greenhouse gases, volcanic eruptions, land use changes, orbital change, and solar activity. Factorial experiments showed that globally on centennial timescales, the forcing of changes in greenhouse gas concentrations were the largest contributor (51%) to variations in both NPP and RH, followed by volcanic eruptions impacting NPP (25%) and RH (31%). Our analysis of the carbon‐cycle suggests that geoengineering solutions by injection of stratospheric aerosols might be ineffective on longer timescales., Key Points We analyzed terrestrial carbon fluxes as simulated by an earth system model over the last 1,000 years to study the variability across timescalesVariability in NBP was largely driven by carbon input through NPP, with an increasing contribution from the response of carbon residence time to external forcing at longer timescalesOn centennial timescales, preindustrial greenhouse gases were the dominant forcing of the land carbon cycle, followed by huge volcanic eruptions
Published: 2019
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37. Carbonyl sulfide (COS) emissions in two agroecosystems in central France

Author: Sauveur Belviso, Camille Abadie, David Montagne, Dalila Hadjar, Didier Tropée, Laurence Vialettes, Victor Kazan, Marc Delmotte, Fabienne Maignan, Marine Remaud, Michel Ramonet, Morgan Lopez, Camille Yver-Kwok, Philippe Ciais, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-RAMCES (ICOS-RAMCES), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Génétique Quantitative et Evolution - Le Moulon (Génétique Végétale) (GQE-Le Moulon), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), and ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Multidisciplinary, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract: Carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes simulated by vegetation and soil component models, both implemented in the ORCHIDEE land surface model, were evaluated against field observations at two agroecosystems in central France. The dynamics of a biogenic process not yet accounted for by this model, i.e., COS emissions from croplands, was examined in the context of three independent and complementary approaches. First, during the growing seasons of 2019 and 2020, monthly variations in the nighttime ratio of vertical mole fraction gradients of COS and carbon dioxide measured between 5 and 180 m height (GradCOS/GradCO2), a proxy of the ratio of their respective nocturnal net fluxes, were monitored at a rural tall tower site near Orléans (i.e., a “profile vs. model” approach). Second, field observations of COS nocturnal fluxes, obtained by the Radon Tracer Method (RTM) at a sub-urban site near Paris, were used for that same purpose (i.e., a “RTM vs. model” approach of unaccounted biogenic emissions). This site has observations going back to 2014. Third, during the growing seasons of 2019, 2020 and 2021, horizontal mole fraction gradients of COS were calculated from downwind-upwind surveys of wheat and rapeseed crops as a proxy of their respective exchange rates at the plot scale (i.e., a “crop based” comparative approach). The “profile vs. model” approach suggests that the nocturnal net COS uptake gradually weakens during the peak growing season and recovers from August on. The “RTM vs. model” approach suggests that there exists a biogenic source of COS, the intensity of which culminates in late June early July. Our “crop based” comparative approach demonstrates that rapeseed crops shift from COS uptake to emission in early summer during the late stages of growth (ripening and senescence) while wheat crops uptake capacities lower markedly. Hence, rapeseed appears to be a much larger source of COS than wheat at the plot scale. Nevertheless, compared to current estimates of the largest COS sources (i.e., marine and anthropogenic emissions), agricultural emissions during the late stages of growth are of secondary importance.
Published: 2022
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38. An alternative AMSR2 vegetation optical depth for monitoring vegetation at large scales

Author: Frédéric Frappart, Philippe Ciais, Rui Sun, Xiaojun Li, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Xiangzhuo Liu, Lei Fan, Yi Liu, Mengjia Wang, Christophe Moisy, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Beijing Normal University (BNU), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Southwest University [Chongqing], Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
Subjects: Spatial correlation, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Reference data (financial markets), 0211 other engineering and technologies, Soil Science, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Vegetation optical depth, Biomass, Computers in Earth Sciences, Leaf area index, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 021101 geological & geomatics engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Remote sensing, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Biosphere, Geology, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, Albedo, LPDR, IB X-VOD, Africa, AMSR2, Environmental science, Scale (map), LPRM
Abstract: International audience; Vegetation optical depth (VOD) retrieved from microwave observations has been found to be useful to monitor the dynamics of the vegetation features at global scale. Particularly, many applications could be developed in several fields of research (ecology, water and carbon cycle, etc.) from VOD products retrieved from the SMOS and SMAP observations at L-band, and from the combined AMSR-E (2002−2011)/AMSR2 (2012-present) observations at C- and X-bands. One of the main difficulties in retrieving VOD is that the microwave observations are sensitive to both the soil (mainly soil moisture) and vegetation (mostly VOD) features. The AMSR-E/2 sensors provide only mono-angular observations at two polarizations. These dual-channel observations may be strongly correlated so that retrieving SM and VOD simultaneously can be an ill-posed problem. Here, to overcome this problem, we proposed and evaluated a new retrieval approach from AMSR2 observations at X-band to produce a new X-VOD product. The X-VOD retrievals were based on the inversion of the X-MEB model, an extension of the L-MEB model (L-band microwave emission of the biosphere) to the X-band. The main originality in comparison to previous algorithms is that (i) only VOD was retrieved while SM was estimated from a reanalysis data set (ERA5-Land); (ii) model inversion was based on an innovative approach to initialize the cost function; and (iii) new values for the soil and vegetation X-MEB model parameters were calibrated. To evaluate the methodology, we performed the VOD retrievals over the whole African continent over 2014–2016, including a dry (2015) and a wet (2014) year. In a first step, we calibrated a set of three parameters: effective scattering albedo (ω), soil roughness (HR) and VOD first guess (VODini). Several datasets of vegetation indices as Above-Ground Biomass (AGB), Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were chosen as reference data to optimize these model parameters. Globally-constant values (ω = 0.06 and HR = 0.6) were found to achieve high spatial and temporal correlations between retrieved X-VOD and the reference vegetation parameters. Comparison with other X-VOD products suggested IB X-VOD had competitive advantages in terms of both spatial and temporal performances. In particular, spatial correlation with three biomass datasets was found to be higher than for previous X-VOD products (R2 ~ 0.76–0.83) and temporal correlation with LAI or NDVI showed obvious improvements, especially in dense vegetation.
Published: 2021
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39. French crop yield, area and production data for ten staple crops from 1900 to 2018 at county resolution

Author: Bernhard Schauberger, Hiromi Kato, Tomomichi Kato, Daiki Watanabe, Philippe Ciais, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Applied Sciences of Weihenstephan, Hokkaido University [Sapporo, Japan], ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Statistics and Probability, Science, Library and Information Sciences, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Computer Science Applications, Education, Information Systems
Abstract: Agricultural performance is influenced by environmental conditions, management decisions and economic circumstances. It is important to quantify their respective contribution to allow for detecting major hazards to production, projecting future yields under climate change and deriving adaptation options. For this purpose, time series of agricultural yields with high spatial and long-term temporal resolution are a primary requisite. Here we present a data set of crop performance in France, one of Europe’s major crop producers. The data set comprises ten crops (barley, maize, oats, potatoes, rapeseed, sugarbeet, sunflower, durum wheat, soft wheat and wine) and covers the years 1900 to 2018. It contains harvested area, production and yield data for all 96 French départements (i.e. counties or NUTS3 level) with a total number of 375,264 data points. Entries until 1988 have been digitized manually from statistical yearbooks. The technical validation indicates a high consistency of the data set within itself and with external resources. The data set may contribute to an enhanced understanding of the manifold influences on agricultural performance.
Published: 2021
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40. Bioenergy crops for low warming targets require half of the present agricultural fertilizer use

Author: Qing Zhao, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Jingmeng Wang, Mengjie Han, Lei Zhu, Daniel S. Goll, Wei Li, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Chinese Academy of Science (CAS), Zhejiang University, Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS)
Subjects: Crops, Agricultural, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Biomass, 010501 environmental sciences, engineering.material, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, nutrient demand, Nutrient, Environmental protection, Bioenergy, Carbon capture and storage, BECCS, Environmental Chemistry, Fertilizers, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, climate mitigation, business.industry, Agriculture, Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, General Chemistry, 15. Life on land, global production, Carbon, bioenergy crop, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, engineering, Environmental science, Fertilizer, business
Abstract: International audience; Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key option for removing CO$_2$ from the atmosphere over time to achieve climate mitigation. However, an overlooked impact of BECCS is the amount of nutrients required to sustain the production. Here, we use an observation-driven approach to estimate the future bioenergy biomass production for land-use scenarios maximizing BECCS and the pertaining nutrient requirements. The projected global biomass production during the 21st century is comparable to the CO$_2$ removal target for 2 °C warming scenarios. However, 9–19% of this future production hinges on agrotechnology improvement, which remains uncertain. Additional nutrients from fertilizers, corresponding to 56.8 ± 6.1% of the present-day agricultural fertilizer, will be needed to replenish the nutrients removed in harvested biomass at the end of the century, resulting in additional costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Our study reveals the nutrient challenges associated with BECCS and calls for additional management efforts to grow bioenergy crops in a sustainable way.
Published: 2021
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41. Indication of paleoecological evidence on the evolution of alpine vegetation productivity and soil erosion in central China since the mid-Holocene

Author: Xiuchen Wu, Hongya Wang, Deliang Chen, Yi Yin, Hongyan Liu, Ying Cheng, Philippe Ciais, Yao Luo, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010506 paleontology, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, Alpine climate, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, Paleoecological indicators, 01 natural sciences, Erosion intensity, Ecosystem services, Vegetation dynamics, Alpine lake sediments, Productivity (ecology), 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Pollen, Ecosystem, Precipitation, Physical geography, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Holocene, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: International audience; Although alpine ecosystems have been commonly recognized as sensitive to recent climate change, few studies haveexamined its impact on the long-term productivity of vegetation and soil erosion. Using paleoecological records, these twoaspects were examined in the alpine zone of the Taibai Mountains (elevation, 3767 m) in monsoon-dominated East Asia since themiddle Holocene. Proxies for the productivity of vegetation and severity of soil erosion from high-resolution alpine lacustrinerecords show that the productivity and soil erosion were closely related to mean annual temperature and summer precipitationfrom the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), respectively. Specifically, when the mean annual temperature was low andprecipitation was abundant, during 5800–4000 calendar years before the present (cal. yr BP), the alpine ecosystem was characterized by low vegetation productivity and severe soil erosion. However, the productivity increased and soil erosion decreasedfrom 4000 cal. yr BP onwards. These results highlight the role of paleoecological evidence in studying ecosystem services onlonger time scales, which is significant in making policies for sustainable development under climate change in regions for whichsuch long-term monitoring data are not available.
Published: 2021
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42. Oil palm modelling in the global land surface model ORCHIDEE-MICT

Author: Y. Xu, P. Ciais, L. Yu, W. Li, X. Chen, H. Zhang, C. Yue, K. Kanniah, A. P. Cracknell, P. Gong, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, QE1-996.5, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Agroforestry, Phenology, Biomass, Geology, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Rainforest, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, Ecosystem services, Vegetable oil, Deforestation, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Leaf area index, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Oil palm is the most productive oil crop that provides ∼ 40 % of the global vegetable oil supply, with 7 % of the cultivated land devoted to oil plants. The rapid expansion of oil palm cultivation is seen as one of the major causes for deforestation emissions and threatens the conservation of rain forest and swamp areas and their associated ecosystem services in tropical areas. Given the importance of oil palm in oil production and its adverse environmental consequences, it is important to understand the physiological and phenological processes of oil palm and its impacts on the carbon, water and energy cycles. In most global vegetation models, oil palm is represented by generic plant functional types (PFTs) without specific representation of its morphological, physical and physiological traits. This would cause biases in the subsequent simulations. In this study, we introduced a new specific PFT for oil palm in the global land surface model ORCHIDEE-MICT (v8.4.2, Organising Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems–aMeliorated Interactions between Carbon and Temperature). The specific morphology, phenology and harvest process of oil palm were implemented, and the plant carbon allocation scheme was modified to support the growth of the branch and fruit component of each phytomer. A new age-specific parameterization scheme for photosynthesis, autotrophic respiration and carbon allocation was also developed for the oil palm PFT, based on observed physiology, and was calibrated by observations. The improved model generally reproduces the leaf area index, biomass density and fruit yield during the life cycle at 14 observation sites. Photosynthesis, carbon allocation and biomass components for oil palm also agree well with observations. This explicit representation of oil palm in a global land surface model offers a useful tool for understanding the ecological processes of oil palm growth and assessing the environmental impacts of oil palm plantations.
Published: 2021
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43. Sensitivity to the sources of uncertainties in the modeling of atmospheric CO2 concentration within and in the vicinity of Paris

Author: Lian, Jinghui, Bréon, François-Marie, Broquet, Grégoire, Lauvaux, Thomas, Zheng, Bo, Ramonet, Michel, Xueref-Remy, Irène, Kotthaus, Simone, Haeffelin, Martial, Ciais, Philippe, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-RAMCES (ICOS-RAMCES), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), This work was supported by the PhD pro-gram funded by the IDEX Paris-Saclay, ANR-11-IDEX-0003-02, together with Harris Corporation. The instrumentation of theJUS site was funded by the SNO ICOS-France Atmosphère, Na-tional Research Agency (ANR, CO2-MEGAPARIS project 2009–2013, grant no. ANR-09-BLAN-0222-03), Ville de Paris (Le CO2Parisien project 2013–2016, grant of the Paris 2030 program no.2013 DDEEES 216), and Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (MULTI-CO2 project, 2013–2016, grant of the IPSL 2013 research program).The COU equipment was funded by ANR (CO2-MEGAPARISproject, 2009–2013, grant no. ANR-09-BLAN-0222-03) and EUClimate-KIC (CarboCount City project, 2012–2016, grant of the2012 Climate-KIC program of the European Institute of Technol-ogy). The latter also funded the OVSQ and AND sites. The Saclaystation is funded by the SNO ICOS-France Atmosphère., ANR-09-BLAN-0222,CO2-MEGAPARIS,Quantification des émissions de CO2 en Ile-de-France(2009), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract: The top-down atmospheric inversion method that couples atmospheric CO2 observations with an atmospheric transport model has been used extensively to quantify CO2 emissions from cities. However, the potential of the method is limited by several sources of misfits between the measured and modeled CO2 that are of different origins than the targeted CO2 emissions. This study investigates the critical sources of errors that can compromise the estimates of the city-scale emissions and identifies the signal of emissions that has to be filtered when doing inversions. A set of 1-year forward simulations is carried out using the WRF-Chem model at a horizontal resolution of 1 km focusing on the Paris area with different anthropogenic emission inventories, physical parameterizations, and CO2 boundary conditions. The simulated CO2 concentrations are compared with in situ observations from six continuous monitoring stations located within Paris and its vicinity. Results highlight large nighttime model–data misfits, especially in winter within the city, which are attributed to large uncertainties in the diurnal profile of anthropogenic emissions as well as to errors in the vertical mixing near the surface in the WRF-Chem model. The nighttime biogenic respiration to the CO2 concentration is a significant source of modeling errors during the growing season outside the city. When winds are from continental Europe and the CO2 concentration of incoming air masses is influenced by remote emissions and large-scale biogenic fluxes, differences in the simulated CO2 induced by the two different boundary conditions (CAMS and CarbonTracker) can be of up to 5 ppm. Nevertheless, our results demonstrate the potential of our optimal CO2 atmospheric modeling system to be utilized in atmospheric inversions of CO2 emissions over the Paris metropolitan area. We evaluated the model performances in terms of wind, vertical mixing, and CO2 model–data mismatches, and we developed a filtering algorithm for outliers due to local contamination and unfavorable meteorological conditions. Analysis of model–data misfit indicates that future inversions at the mesoscale should only use afternoon urban CO2 measurements in winter and suburban measurements in summer. Finally, we determined that errors related to CO2 boundary conditions can be overcome by including distant background observations to constrain the boundary inflow or by assimilating CO2 gradients of upwind–downwind stations rather than by assimilating absolute CO2 concentrations.
Published: 2021
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44. Additional carbon inputs to reach a 4 per 1000 objective in Europe: feasibility and projected impacts of climate change based on Century simulations of long-term arable experiments

Author: E. Bruni, B. Guenet, Y. Huang, H. Clivot, I. Virto, R. Farina, T. Kätterer, P. Ciais, M. Martin, C. Chenu, Universidad Pública de Navarra. Departamento de Ciencias, Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa. Zientziak Saila, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Laboratoire de géologie de l'ENS (LGENS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire Agronomie et Environnement (LAE), Université de Lorraine (UL)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Fractionnement des AgroRessources et Environnement (FARE), Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Universidad Pública de Navarra [Espagne] = Public University of Navarra (UPNA), Council for Agricultural Research and Agricultural Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), InfoSol (InfoSol), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria = Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: DYNAMICS, DECOMPOSITION, AGRICULTURE, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT, Soil Science, Soil organic carbon (SOC), Climate change, Organic C inputs, SEQUESTRATION, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Climate warming, Life, ROOT, QH501-531, TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY, STOCKS, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, QH540-549.5, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, SOIL ORGANIC-CARBON, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 2. Zero hunger, QE1-996.5, Ecology, Nutrient management, Global warming, Environmental Sciences (social aspects to be 507), Geology, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Soil carbon, 15. Life on land, Crop rotation, 13. Climate action, Soil water, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Arable land, Soil fertility, MATTER
Abstract: The 4 per 1000 initiative aims to maintain and increase soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks for soil fertility, food security, and climate change adaptation and mitigation. One way to enhance SOC stocks is to increase carbon (C) inputs to the soil. In this study, we assessed the amount of organic C inputs that are necessary to reach a target of SOC stocks increase by 4 ‰ yr−1 on average, for 30 years, at 14 long-term agricultural sites in Europe. We used the Century model to simulate SOC stocks and assessed the required level of additional C inputs to reach the 4 per 1000 target at these sites. Then, we analyzed how this would change under future scenarios of temperature increase. Initial stocks were simulated assuming steady state. We compared modeled C inputs to different treatments of additional C used on the experimental sites (exogenous organic matter addition and one treatment with different crop rotations). The model was calibrated to fit the control plots, i.e. conventional management without additional C inputs from exogenous organic matter or changes in crop rotations, and was able to reproduce the SOC stock dynamics. We found that, on average among the selected experimental sites, annual C inputs will have to increase by 43.15 ± 5.05 %, which is 0.66 ± 0.23 MgCha-1yr-1 (mean ± standard error), with respect to the initial C inputs in the control treatment. The simulated amount of C input required to reach the 4 ‰ SOC increase was lower than or similar to the amount of C input actually used in the majority of the additional C input treatments of the long-term experiments. However, Century might be overestimating the effect of additional C inputs on SOC stocks. At the experimental sites, we found that treatments with additional C inputs were increasing by 0.25 % on average. This means that the C inputs required to reach the 4 per 1000 target might actually be much higher. Furthermore, we estimated that annual C inputs will have to increase even more due to climate warming, that is 54 % more and 120 % more for a 1 and 5 ∘C warming, respectively. We showed that modeled C inputs required to reach the target depended linearly on the initial SOC stocks, raising concern on the feasibility of the 4 per 1000 objective in soils with a higher potential contribution to C sequestration, that is soils with high SOC stocks. Our work highlights the challenge of increasing SOC stocks at a large scale and in a future with a warmer climate.
Published: 2021
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45. Influences of international agricultural trade on the global phosphorus cycle and its associated issues

Author: Qiyuan Hu, Michael Obersteiner, Chongyang Wang, Philippe Ciais, Ivan A. Janssens, Fei Lun, Xiao Xiao, Josep Peñuelas, Jordi Sardans, Danfeng Sun, Ming Liu, Zhuo Li, Jiayue Tang, China Agricultural University (CAU), CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Antwerp (UA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [No. 41801202, No. 41911530693], National Key R&D Program of China [2016YFD0201207] and a Synergy Grant [ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P] from the European Research Council., Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, media_common.quotation_subject, Geography, Planning and Development, 010501 environmental sciences, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, engineering.material, 01 natural sciences, Agricultural economics, crop P fertilizer footprint, Scarcity, Crop, International agricultural trade, Temperate climate, Economics, media_common.cataloged_instance, European union, global P cycle, China, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, business.industry, virtual P fertilizer flows, 1. No poverty, 15. Life on land, Chemistry, P use efficiency, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, engineering, Food processing, Fertilizer, business
Abstract: International audience; Industrial phosphorus (P) fertilizer has substantially improved global food production, but has also led to environmental impacts. Intensive global agricultural trade has increased and the impacts of trade on aggravating or alleviating future P scarcity must be examined, especially for the most vulnerable countries. We combined data to estimate the global P trade among countries and its impacts on global P flows, based on global agricultural trade, cropland soil P budgets and crop P fertilizer footprints (the amount of industrial P fertilizer applied for producing one unit of P in the harvested crop). The global agricultural P trade represented a fraction of 16% of P in harvested crops in 2014, half of which was exported from the United States of America, Brazil and the European Union and one fifth imported by China. Virtual P fertilizer flows (about 2.60 Tg P y-1) referred to industrial P fertilizers applied to traded crops by exporting countries; thus, 1/3 of global virtual P fertilizer flows were associated with the international soybean trade. P use efficiency (PUE), the ratio of the harvested crop-P to the total external P inputs, is a larger problem for tropical than temperate countries. Global crop trade had brought in a net 0.2 Tg P y-1 savings of industrial P fertilizers globally, compared to crop production in export and import countries. >0.50 Tg y-1 of the gross global accumulation of soil P and P in freshwater were associated with global agricultural trade. Global PUE, however, could be improved considerably, and thus global cooperation and improving PUE could help to solve the problem of future P scarcity. Vulnerable countries should also propose urgent national plans to address their own situations of P scarcity or low PUE.
Published: 2021
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46. Climate change-induced greening on the Tibetan Plateau modulated by mountainous characteristics

Author: Yin Zhou, Hongfen Teng, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Zhou Shi, Zhongkui Luo, Hanqin Tian, Songchao Chen, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan University [China], Zhejiang University, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Nanjing Branch], InfoSol (InfoSol), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Auburn University (AU), Sol Agro et hydrosystème Spatialisation (SAS), AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Wuhan Institute of Technology (WIT), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, vegetation greenness, Climate change, mountainous effects, 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, Greening, Tibetan Plateau, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, geography, Plateau, geography.geographical_feature_category, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 15. Life on land, climate change, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Spatial variability, spatial variability, Physical geography
Abstract: Global terrestrial vegetation is greening, particularly in mountain areas, providing strong feedbacks to a series of ecosystem processes. This greening has been primarily attributed to climate change. However, the spatial variability and magnitude of such greening do not synchronize with those of climate change in mountain areas. By integrating two data sets of satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values, which are indicators of vegetation greenness, in the period 1982–2015 across the Tibetan Plateau (TP), we test the hypothesis that climate-change-induced greening is regulated by terrain, baseline climate and soil properties. We find a widespread greening trend over 91% of the TP vegetated areas, with an average greening rate (i.e. increase in NDVI) of 0.011 per decade. The linear mixed-effects model suggests that climate change alone can explain only 26% of the variation in the observed greening. Additionally, 58% of the variability can be explained by the combination of the mountainous characteristics of terrain, baseline climate and soil properties, and 32% of this variability was explained by terrain. Path analysis identified the interconnections of climate change, terrain, baseline climate and soil in determining greening. Our results demonstrate the important role of mountainous effects in greening in response to climate change.
Published: 2021
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47. Vapor pressure deficit and sunlight explain seasonality of leaf phenology and photosynthesis across amazonian evergreen broadleaved forest

Author: Nicolas Viovy, Liyang Liu, Shushi Peng, Hao Tang, Xiuzhi Chen, Wenping Yuan, Hyungjun Kim, Ana Bastos, Laurent Li, Haicheng Zhang, Yi Liu, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Lei Fan, Cédric Bacour, Fabienne Maignan, Yuan Zhang, Philippe Ciais, Julia K. Green, Daniel S. Goll, Pierre Gentine, Jin Wu, National Sun Yat-Sen University (NSYSU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), NOVELTIS [Sté], Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering [New York], Columbia University [New York], Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Department of Geographical Sciences [College Park], University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, The University of Hong Kong (HKU), Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, ANR-15-JCLI-0002,CLIMAX,Climate Services Through Knowledge Co-Production: A Euro-South American Initiative For Strengthening Societal Adaptation Response to Extreme Events(2015), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Vapour Pressure Deficit, Amazonian, Photosynthesis, climatic triggers, 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, dry-season photosynthesis, Leaf phenology, biogeochemical cycles of carbon fluxes, medicine, Environmental Chemistry, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Sunlight, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, Global and Planetary Change, tropical phenology, 15. Life on land, Seasonality, Evergreen, medicine.disease, Amazonian evergreen forests, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, land surface models, Environmental science
Abstract: International audience; Amazonian evergreen forests show distinct canopy phenology and photosynthetic seasonality but the climatic triggers are not well understood. This imposes a challenge for modeling leaf phenology and photosynthesis seasonality in land surface models (LSMs) across Amazonian evergreen forest biome. On continental scale, we tested two climatic triggers suggested by site observations, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and short-wave incoming radiation (SW) for defining leaf shedding and incorporated VPD- and SW-triggered new canopy phenology modules in the ORCHIDEE LSM (hereafter VPD-AP and SW-AP versions). Our results show that both VPD and SW are plausible precursors of large scale litterfall seasonality across the basin by comparing against in situ data from 14 sites. Specially, both VPD-AP and SW-AP correctly capture the increases in litterfall during the early dry season, followed by a flush of new leaves with increasing photosynthetic rates during the later dry season. The VPD-AP version performs better than the SW-AP version in capturing a dry-season increase of photosynthesis across the wet Amazonia areas where mean annual precipitation exceeds 2,000 mm yr$^{-1}$, consistent with previous satellite data analysis. Both VPD-AP and SW-AP model versions perform well in northern, central and southern Amazon regions where the SW seasonality is unimodal, but miss the seasonality of satellite GPP proxies in the eastern region off the coast of Guyana shield where SW seasonality is bimodal. Our findings imply that atmospheric dryness and sunlight availability likely explain the seasonality of leaf shedding and leaf flush processes, respectively, and consequently control canopy photosynthesis in Amazonian evergreen forests
Published: 2021
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48. A 30 m terrace mapping in China using Landsat 8 imagery and digital elevation model based on the Google Earth Engine

Author: B. Cao, L. Yu, V. Naipal, P. Ciais, W. Li, Y. Zhao, W. Wei, D. Chen, Z. Liu, P. Gong, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0211 other engineering and technologies, 02 engineering and technology, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, 01 natural sciences, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Agricultural land, GE1-350, Digital elevation model, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Spatial analysis, 021101 geological & geomatics engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, QE1-996.5, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Elevation, Geology, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, Environmental sciences, Terrace (geology), 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Physical geography
Abstract: The construction of terraces is a key soil conservation practice on agricultural land in China providing multiple valuable ecosystem services. Accurate spatial information on terraces is needed for both management and research. In this study, the first 30 m resolution terracing map of the entire territory of China is produced by a supervised pixel-based classification using multisource and multi-temporal data based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. We extracted time-series spectral features and topographic features from Landsat 8 images and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model (SRTM DEM) data, classifying cropland area (cultivated land of Globeland30) into terraced and non-terraced types through a random forest classifier. The overall accuracy and kappa coefficient were evaluated by 10 875 test samples and achieved values of 94 % and 0.72, respectively. For terrace class, the producer's accuracy (PA) was 79.945 %, and the user's accuracy (UA) was 71.149 %. The classification performed best in the Loess Plateau and southwestern China, where terraces are most numerous. Some northeastern, eastern-central, and southern areas had relatively high uncertainty. Typical errors in the mapping results are from the sloping cropland (non-terrace cropland with a slope of ≥ 5∘), low-slope terraces, and non-crop vegetation. Terraces are widely distributed in China, and the total terraced area was estimated to be 53.55 Mha (i.e., 26.43 % of China's cropland area) by pixel counting (PC) method and 58.46 ± 2.99 Mha (i.e., 28.85 % ± 1.48 % of China's cropland area) by error-matrix-based model-assisted estimation (EM) method. Elevation and slope were identified as the main features in the terrace/non-terrace classification, and multi-temporal spectral features (such as percentiles of NDVI, TIRS2, and BSI) were also essential. Terraces are more challenging to identify than other land use types because of the intra-class feature heterogeneity, interclass feature similarity, and fragmented patches, which should be the focus of future research. Our terrace mapping algorithm can be used to map large-scale terraces in other regions globally, and our terrace map will serve as a landmark for studies on multiple ecosystem service assessments including erosion control, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity conservation. The China terrace map is available to the public at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3895585 (Cao et al., 2020).
Published: 2021
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49. The Key Role of Production Efficiency Changes in Livestock Methane Emission Mitigation

Author: Philippe Ciais, Mario Herrero, Yi Yin, Shushi Peng, Jinfeng Chang, Petr Havlik, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 2. Zero hunger, Methane emissions, 0303 health sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Climate change, General Medicine, 15. Life on land, Production efficiency, 01 natural sciences, Methane, 03 medical and health sciences, chemistry.chemical_compound, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Environmental protection, Key (cryptography), Environmental science, Livestock, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, business, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The livestock sector is the largest source of anthropogenic methane emissions and is projected to increase in the future with the increased demand for livestock products. Here, we compare livestock methane emissions and emission intensities, defined by the amount of methane emitted per unit of animal proteins, estimated by different methodologies, and identify mitigation potentials in different regions of the world based on possible future projections. We show that emission intensity decreased for most livestock categories globally during 2000–2018, due to an increasing protein-production efficiency, and the IPCC Tier 2 method should be used for capturing the temporal changes in the emission intensities. We further show that efforts on the demand-side to promote balanced, healthy, and environmentally sustainable diets in most countries will not be sufficient to mitigate livestock methane emissions without parallel efforts to improve production efficiency. The latter efforts have much greater mitigating effects than demand-side efforts, and hence should be prioritized in a few developing countries that contribute most of the mitigation potential.
Published: 2021
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50. Carbon Cycle Response to Temperature Overshoot Beyond 2°C: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models

Author: Thomas Gasser, Tokuta Yokohata, Philippe Ciais, Hideo Shiogama, Irina Melnikova, Katsumasa Tanaka, Yann Quilcaille, Patricia Cadule, Kaoru Tachiiri, Olivier Boucher, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), ANR-19-MPGA-0008,PRATO,Achieving the Paris Agreement Temperature Targets after Overshoot(2019), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, SSP5‐3.4‐OS, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Carbon cycle, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Overshoot (microwave communication), GE1-350, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, CMIP6, QH540-549.5, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Ecology, Mechanics, carbon‐concentration feedback, overshoot, Environmental sciences, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Current (fluid), carbon‐climate feedback
Abstract: There is a substantial gap between the current emissions of greenhouse gases and levels required for achieving the 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets of the Paris Agreement. Understanding the implications of a temperature overshoot is thus an increasingly relevant research topic. Here we explore the carbon cycle feedbacks over land and ocean in the SSP5-3.4-OS overshoot scenario by using an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 Earth system models. Models show that after the CO2 concentration and air temperature peaks, land and ocean are decreasing carbon sinks from the 2,040s and become sources for a limited time in the 22nd century. The decrease in the carbon uptake precedes the CO2 concentration peak. The early peak of ocean uptake stems from its dependency on the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. The early peak of the land uptake occurs due to a larger increase in ecosystem respiration than the increase in gross primary production, as well as due to a concomitant increase in land-use change emissions primarily attributed to the wide implementation of biofuel croplands. The carbon cycle feedback parameters amplify after the CO2 concentration and temperature peaks due to inertia of the Earth system so that land and ocean absorb more carbon per unit change in the atmospheric CO2 change (stronger negative feedback) and lose more carbon per unit temperature change (stronger positive feedback) compared to if the feedbacks stayed unchanged. The increased negative CO2 feedback outperforms the increased positive climate feedback. This feature should be investigated under other scenarios. © 2021. The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.
Published: 2021
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