1. Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections
- Author
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Laurent Bopp, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, Christoph Heinze, Thomas L. Frölicher, James C. Orr, Birgit Schneider, Andreas Oschlies, Marion Gehlen, Marco Steinacher, Valentina Cocco, Joachim Segschneider, Fortunat Joos, Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Institute of Geosciences [Kiel], Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (CAU), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Mesopelagic zone ,530 Physics ,lcsh:Life ,chemistry.chemical_element ,Marine life ,Oxygen ,01 natural sciences ,chemistry.chemical_compound ,lcsh:QH540-549.5 ,Marine ecosystem ,14. Life underwater ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,550 Earth sciences & geology ,Earth-Surface Processes ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,010604 marine biology & hydrobiology ,Global warming ,lcsh:QE1-996.5 ,lcsh:Geology ,lcsh:QH501-531 ,chemistry ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,Greenhouse gas ,Carbon dioxide ,Environmental science ,lcsh:Ecology ,Saturation (chemistry) - Abstract
Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100–600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1–0.2 mol m−3 in year 1990 to 0.2–0.4 mol m−3 in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.
- Published
- 2013
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