1. Probabilistic hazard analysis for tsunamis generated by subaqueous volcanic explosions in the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy
- Author
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Martina Ulvrova, Stefano Lorito, Anita Grezio, Roberto Tonini, Beatriz Brizuela, Raphaël Paris, Jacopo Selva, Antonio Costa, Paris, R., Ulvrova, M., Selva, J., Brizuela, B., Costa, A., Grezio, A., Lorito, S., Tonini, R., Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans (LMV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et la société-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (OPGC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Sciences de la Terre (LST), École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CHI Poissy-Saint-Germain, ANR-10-LABX-0006,CLERVOLC,Clermont-Ferrand centre for research on volcanism(2010), ANR-16-IDEX-0001,CAP 20-25,CAP 20-25(2016), École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et la société-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (OPGC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon), and Jouhannel, Sylvaine
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Magnitude (mathematics) ,Hazard analysis ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,Geochemistry and Petrology ,caldera ,[SDU.STU.VO]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Volcanology ,Caldera ,14. Life underwater ,Submarine volcanic explosions ,Submarine volcanic explosion ,Underwater ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,Volcanic tsunami ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,geography ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,Submarine ,Hazard ,Campi Flegrei caldera ,Geophysics ,Volcano ,13. Climate action ,[SDU.STU.VO] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Volcanology ,Caldera volcano ,Campi Flegrei ,Bay ,Seismology ,Geology - Abstract
Co-auteur étranger; International audience; A probabilistic hazard analysis of tsunami generated by subaqueous volcanic explosion is applied to the Campi Flegrei caldera (Campania, Italy). An event tree is developed to quantify the tsunami hazard due to the submarine explosions by: i) defining potential size classes of explosion magnitude on the basis of past volcanic activity in the Campi Flegrei caldera and sites in the underwater part of the caldera; ii) simulating the generation and propagation of the consequent tsunami waves able to reach the coasts of the Campania region for all combinations of tsunami-generating vents and sizes; and iii) quantifying the tsunami probability and relative uncertainty, conditional upon the occurrence of an underwater eruption at Campi Flegrei. Tsunami hazard generated by subaqueous volcanic explosions is considered crucial because of its potential high impact on the densely populated coastal areas of the Pozzuoli Bay and Gulf of Naples even if the probability for eruptions in the submarine part of the caldera is certainly low. The tsunami hazard analysis is presented using conditional hazard curves and maps, that is calculating the probability (and relative uncertainties) of exceeding given tsunami intensity thresholds (wave amplitudes at the coast), given the occurrence of a subaqueous eruption. The results indicate that a significant tsunami hazard exists in many areas of the Bay of Naples.
- Published
- 2019
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