1. Using Population Based Kalman Estimator to Model COVID-19 Epidemic in France: Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Dynamics of Epidemic
- Author
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Collin, Annabelle, Hejblum, Boris P., Vignals, Carole, Lehot, Laurent, Thiébaut, Rodolphe, Moireau, Philippe, Prague, MéLanie, Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux (IMB), Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux (Bordeaux INP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Bordeaux population health (BPH), Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine (SISTM), Inria Bordeaux - Sud-Ouest, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)- Bordeaux population health (BPH), Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Vaccine Research Institute (VRI), Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12), CHU de Bordeaux Pellegrin [Bordeaux], Laboratoire de mécanique des solides (LMS), École polytechnique (X)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux (Bordeaux INP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation Mathématique pour l'Oncologie (MONC), Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux (Bordeaux INP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux (Bordeaux INP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Bergonié [Bordeaux], UNICANCER-UNICANCER-Inria Bordeaux - Sud-Ouest, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria), Mathematical and Mechanical Modeling with Data Interaction in Simulations for Medicine (M3DISIM), École polytechnique (X)-Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Inria Saclay - Ile de France, and Hejblum, Boris
- Subjects
[SDV.MHEP.ME]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Emerging diseases ,[STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] ,Epidemic modeling ,[SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases ,[SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ,[MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST] ,Non-pharmaceutical interventions ,COVID-19 ,[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ,Population estimation ,COVID-19 Epidemic modeling Non-pharmaceutical interventions Kalman filters Population estimation ,Kalman filters ,[MATH.MATH-ST] Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST] - Abstract
International audience; In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, governments are taking a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). These measures include interventions as stringent as strict lockdown but also school closure, bar and restaurant closure, curfews and barrier gestures i.e . social distancing. Disentangling the effectiveness of each NPI is crucial to inform response to future outbreaks. To this end, we first develop a multi-level estimation of the French COVID-19 epidemic over a period of one year. We rely on a global extended Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) mechanistic model of the infection including a dynamical (over time) transmission rate containing a Wiener process accounting for modeling error. Random effects are integrated following an innovative population approach based on a Kalman-type filter where the log-likelihood functional couples data across French regions. We then fit the estimated time-varying transmission rate using a regression model depending on NPI, while accounting for vaccination coverage, apparition of variants of concern (VoC) and seasonal weather conditions. We show that all NPI considered have an independent significant effect on the transmission rate. We additionally demonstrate a strong effect from weather conditions which decrease transmission during the summer period, and also estimate increased transmissibility of VoCs.
- Published
- 2021
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