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Barrier coasts, including barrier islands, beach-ridge plains, and associated landforms, can assume a broad spectrum of morphologies over multi-decadal scales that reflect conditions of sediment availability, accommodation, and relative sea-level rise. However, the quantitative thresholds of these controls on barrier-system behavior remain largely unexplored, even as modern sea-level rise and anthropogenic modification of sediment availability increasingly reshape the world's sandy coastlines. In this study, we conceptualize barrier coasts as sediment-partitioning frameworks, distributing sand delivered from the shoreface to the subaqueous and subaerial components of the coastal system. Using an idealized morphodynamic model, we explore thresholds of behavioral and morphologic change over decadal to centennial timescales, simulating barrier evolution within quasi-stratigraphic morphological cross sections. Our results indicate a wide diversity of barrier behaviors can be explained by the balance of fluxes delivered to the beach vs. the dune or backbarrier, including previously understudied forms of transgression that allow the subaerial system to continue accumulating sediment during landward migration. Most importantly, our results show that barrier state transitions between progradation, cross-shore amalgamation, aggradation, and transgression are controlled largely through balances within a narrow range of relative sea-level rise and sediment flux. This suggests that, in the face of rising sea levels, subtle changes in sediment fluxes could result in significant changes in barrier morphology. We also demonstrate that modeled barriers with reduced vertical sediment accommodation are highly sensitive to the magnitude and direction of shoreface fluxes. Therefore, natural barriers with limited sediment accommodation could allow for exploration of the future effects of sea-level rise and changing flux magnitudes over a period of years as opposed to the decades required for similar responses in sediment-rich barrier systems. Finally, because our model creates stratigraphy generated under different input parameters, we propose that it could be used in combination with stratigraphic data to hindcast the sensitivity of existing barriers and infer changes in prehistoric morphology, which we anticipate will provide a baseline to assess the reliability of forward modeling predictions.

Barrier islands and their associated backbarrier ecosystems front much of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, yet threshold conditions associated with their relative stability (i.e., state changes between progradation, erosion, and landward migration) in the face of sea-level rise remain poorly understood. The barrier islands along Virginia's Eastern Shore are among the largest undeveloped barrier systems in the U.S., providing an ideal natural laboratory to explore the sensitivity of barrier islands to environmental change. Details about the developmental history of Parramore Island, one of the longest (12 km) and widest (1.0–1.9 km) of these islands, provide insight into the timescales and processes of barrier-island formation and evolution along this mixed-energy coast. Synthesis of new stratigraphic (vibra-, auger, and direct-push cores), geospatial (historical maps, aerial imagery, t-sheets, LiDAR), and chronologic (optically stimulated luminescence, radiocarbon) analyses reveals that Parramore has alternated between periods of landward migration/erosion and seaward progradation during the past several thousand years. New chronology from backbarrier and barrier-island facies reveals that Parramore Island has existed in some form for nearly 5000 years. Following a period of rapid overwash-driven retrogradation, and coinciding with a period of slow relative sea-level rise (~1 mm/ yr), Parramore stabilized ~1000 years ago in partial response to pinning by and sediment delivery from erosion of a Pleistocene-aged antecedent high. Following pinning, Parramore built seaward through development of successive progradational beach and dune ridges. Morphological and historical evidence suggests that these processes were interrupted by inlet formation—possibly associated with an interval of enhanced storminess—at least three times during this period. Following inlet closure in the early 1800s, island progradation was rapid, with Parramore Island reaching its maximum width ca. 150 years ago. It has since switched states again, undergoing accelerating erosion (~12 m/ yr since 1980). The relative youth of Parramore Island is in contrast to many East Coast barrier islands, which generally reached their present positions about 3500–2000 years ago. Moreover, these results demonstrate that the apparent robustness and stability of Parramore are ephemeral features of an island that has undergone multiple state changes within the last 1000 years. Finally, they refine current knowledge of the roles of antecedent topography, sediment delivery rates, storms, and sea-level rise in barrier-island stability and resilience to future climate change.

Submerged barrier deposits preserved on continental shelf seabeds provide a record of paleocoastal environmental change from the last glacial maximum through the Holocene. The formation of these offshore deposits is often attributed to intermittent periods of rapidly rising sea levels, especially glacial meltwater pulses, which are expected to lead to partial or complete drowning – overstepping – of migrating barrier islands. However, recent cross-shore modeling and field evidence suggests that even for constant sea-level rise and shelf slope, the internal dynamics of migrating barriers could plausibly drive periodic retreat accompanied by autogenic partial overstepping and deposition of barrier sediment. We hypothesize that the interaction of periodic retreat with changes in external (allogenic) forcing from sea-level rise may create novel retreat responses and corresponding relict barrier deposits. Specifically, we posit that autogenic deposits can be amplified by an increased rate of relative sea-level rise, while in other cases internal dynamics can disrupt or mask the production of allogenic deposits. Here, we model barriers through a range of autogenic–allogenic interactions, exploring how barriers with different inherent autogenic periods respond to discrete, centennial-scale sea-level-rise pulses of variable magnitude and timing within the autogenic transgressive barrier cycle. Our results demonstrate a diversity of depositional signals, where production of relict sands is amplified or suppressed depending on both the barrier’s internal dynamic state and the pulse magnitude. We also show that millennial-scale autogenic periodicity renders barriers vulnerable to complete drowning for relatively low pulse rates of rise (