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Aridland breeding bird communities of the United States are among the most vulnerable to drought, with many species showing significant population declines associated with decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature. Individual breeding bird species have varied responses to drought which suggests complex responses to changes in water availability. Here, we evaluated the influence of water deficit, an integrative metric of drought stress, on breeding bird communities within 3 distinct aridland habitat types: riparian, pinyon-juniper, and sagebrush shrubland. We used 12 years of breeding bird survey data from 11 national parks and monuments in the Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCPN). We used a multivariate community-level approach to test for the effect of annual water deficit on the bird communities in the 3 habitats. We found that bird communities responded to water deficit in all 3 habitat types, and 70% of the 30 species–habitat combinations show significant relationships between density and variation in water deficit. Our analyses revealed that the direction and magnitude of species responses to water deficit were habitat-dependent. The habitat-specific responses we observed suggest that the adaptive capacity of some species depends on the habitat in which they occur, a pattern only elucidated with our habitat-based approach. The direction and magnitude of the relationships between predicted densities and annual water deficit can be used to predict the relative sensitivity of species within habitat climate changes. These results provide the first attempt to determine how the indirect effect of changes in water availability might affect aridland breeding birds in distinct habitat types. Linking breeding bird density to annual water deficit may be valuable for predicting changes in species persistence and distribution in response to climate change.

Despite the importance of hydrologic regimes to the phenology, demography, and abundance of fishes such as salmonids, there have been surprisingly few syntheses that holistically assess regional, species-specific trends in hydrologic regimes within a framework of climate change. Here, we consider hydrologic regimes within the Greater Yellowstone Area in the Rocky Mountains of western North America to evaluate changes in hydrologic metrics anticipated to affect salmonids, a group of fishes with high regional ecological and socioeconomic value. Our analyses assessed trends across different sites and time periods (1930–, 1950–, and 1970–2015) as means to evaluate spatial and temporal shifts. Consistent patterns emerged from our analyses indicating substantial shifts to (1) earlier peak discharge events; (2) reductions of summer minimum streamflows; (3) declines in the duration of river ice; and (4) decreases in total volume of water. We found accelerated trends in hydrologic change for the 1970–2015 period, with an average peak discharge 7.5 days earlier, 27.5% decline in summer minimum streamflows, and a 15.6% decline in the annual total volume of water (1 October–September 30) across sites. We did observe considerable variability in magnitude of change across sites, suggesting different levels of vulnerability to a changing climate. Our analyses provide an iterative means for assessing climate predictions and an important step in identifying the climate resilience of landscapes.

Research Highlights: The efficacy of planting for restoration is important for ecosystem managers. Planting efforts represent an opportunity for conserving and managing species during a population crisis. Background and Objectives: Federal agencies have been planting whitebark pine (WBP), an important subalpine species that is late to mature and long-lived, for three decades in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). These efforts have been met with varying success, and they have not been evaluated beyond the first five years post-planting. Ecosystem managers will continue to plant WBP in the GYE for years to come, and this research helps to inform and identify higher quality habitat during a period of changing climate and high GYE WBP mortality rates. Materials and Methods: We use a combination of field sampling and a water balance model to investigate local biophysical gradients as explanatory variables for WBP performance at twenty-nine GYE planting sites. Results: We found that the WBP growth rate was positively correlated with actual evapotranspiration (AET) and was greatest when cumulative growing season AET was above 350 mm. Growth rate was not strongly affected by competition at the levels found in this study. However, site density change over time was negatively affected by mean growing season temperature and when more than five competitors were present within 3.59 m radius. Conclusions: If they make it to maturity, trees that are planted this season will not begin to produce cones until the latter half of this century. We recommend planting efforts that optimize AET for growth rate objectives, minimize water deficit (WD) that cause stress and mortality, and removing competitors if they exceed five within a short distance of seedlings.

Whitebark pine, a foundation species at tree line in the Western U.S. and Canada, has declined due to native mountain pine beetle epidemics, wildfire, and white pine blister rust. These declines are concerning for the multitude of ecosystem and human benefits provided by this species. An understanding of the climatic correlates associated with spread is needed to successfully manage impacts from forest pathogens. Since 2000 mountain pine beetles have killed 75% of the mature cone-bearing trees in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, and 40.9% of monitored trees have been infected with white pine blister rust. We identified models of white pine blister rust infection which indicated that an August and September interaction between relative humidity and temperature are better predictors of white pine blister rust infection in whitebark pine than location and site characteristics in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. The climate conditions conducive to white pine blister rust occur throughout the ecosystem, but larger trees in relatively warm and humid conditions were more likely to be infected between 2000 and 2018. We mapped the infection probability over the past two decades to identify coarse-scale patterns of climate conditions associated with white pine blister rust infection in whitebark pine.

Questions Can we improve understanding of vegetation response to water availability on monthly time scales in semi-arid environments using remote sensing methods? What climatic or water balance variables and antecedent windows of time associated with these variables best relate to the condition of vegetation? Can we develop credible near-term forecasts from climate data that can be used to prepare for future climate change effects on vegetation? Location Semi-arid grasslands in Capitol Reef National Park, Utah, USA. Methods We built vegetation response models by relating the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from MODIS imagery in Mar–Nov 2000–2013 to antecedent climate and water balance variables preceding the monthly NDVI observations. We compared how climate and water balance variables explained vegetation greenness and then used a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance models to forecast monthly NDVI for three holdout years. Results Water balance variables explained vegetation greenness to a greater degree than climate variables for most growing season months. Seasonally important variables included measures of antecedent water input and storage in spring, switching to indicators of drought, input or use in summer, followed by antecedent moisture availability in autumn. In spite of similar climates, there was evidence the grazed grassland showed a response to drying conditions 1 mo sooner than the ungrazed grassland. Lead times were generally short early in the growing season and antecedent window durations increased from 3 mo early in the growing season to 1 yr or more as the growing season progressed. Forecast accuracy for three holdout years using a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance variables outperformed forecasts made with a naive NDVI climatology. Conclusions We determined the influence of climate and water balance on vegetation at a fine temporal scale, which presents an opportunity to forecast vegetation response with short lead times. This understanding was obtained through high-frequency vegetation monitoring using remote sensing, which reduces the costs and time necessary for field measurements and can lead to more rapid detection of vegetation changes that could help managers take appropriate actions.

Managing climate impacts to natural resources in protected areas can be hampered by lack of monitoring data, poor understanding of natural resource responses to climate, or lack of timely condition assessments that can inform management actions. Here we demonstrate the utility of water balance as a tool for understanding natural resource responses to climate by developing case studies focused on stream flow, vegetation production, and wildfire ignition at Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GSDNP), U.S.A. The efficacy of water balance to predict these responses stems from the explicit integration of climate with site conditions that modify the effects of climate. This in turn results in estimates of water availability, water use, and water need that are proximal drivers of aquatic and terrestrial natural resource conditions. The water balance model successfully forecasted stream flow (r2 = 0.69, P

In Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks wetlands offer critical habitat and play a key role in supporting biological diversity. The shallow depths and small size of many palustrine wetlands in these protected areas and elsewhere make them vulnerable to changes in climate compared with larger and deeper aquatic habitats. Here, we use a simple water balance model to generate estimates of biophysical drivers of wetland change. We then examine the relationship between wetland inundation status and four principal drivers (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff) spanning varying meteorological conditions over an 8-year time series from Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks. We found that models containing snowmelt runoff outperformed models with other meteorological drivers and determined that a higher percentage of surveyed wetlands were dry in years characterized by lower runoff. Our work further shows that wetland drying was widespread across both parks, but sub-regional variations were best described at the hydrologic subbasin-level. Documenting the varying responses of wetlands to meteorological drivers is a necessary first step to identifying which subbasins are most sensitive to recent climatic change and contemplating how future change may alter the distribution of wetlands and their dependent taxa.

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests in the western United States have been adversely affected by an exotic pathogen (Cronartium ribicola, causal agent of white pine blister rust), insect outbreaks (Dendroctonus ponderosae, mountain pine beetle), and drought. We monitored individual trees from 2004 to 2013 and characterized stand‐level biophysical conditions through a mountain pine beetle epidemic in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Specifically, we investigated associations between tree‐level variables (duration and location of white pine blister rust infection, presence of mountain pine beetle, tree size, and potential interactions) with observations of individual whitebark pine tree mortality. Climate summaries indicated that cumulative growing degree days in years 2006–2008 likely contributed to a regionwide outbreak of mountain pine beetle prior to the observed peak in whitebark mortality in 2009. We show that larger whitebark pine trees were preferentially attacked and killed by mountain pine beetle and resulted in a regionwide shift to smaller size class trees. In addition, we found evidence that smaller size class trees with white pine blister rust infection experienced higher mortality than larger trees. This latter finding suggests that in the coming decades white pine blister rust may become the most probable cause of whitebark pine mortality. Our findings offered no evidence of an interactive effect of mountain pine beetle and white pine blister rust infection on whitebark pine mortality in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Interestingly, the probability of mortality was lower for larger trees attacked by mountain pine beetle in stands with higher evapotranspiration. Because evapotranspiration varies with climate and topoedaphic conditions across the region, we discuss the potential to use this improved understanding of biophysical influences on mortality to identify microrefugia that might contribute to successful whitebark pine conservation efforts. Using tree‐level observations, the National Park Service‐led Greater Yellowstone Interagency Whitebark Pine Long‐term Monitoring Program provided important ecological insight on the size‐dependent effects of white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and water availability on whitebark pine mortality. This ongoing monitoring campaign will continue to offer observations that advance conservation in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Climate change in grassland ecosystems may lead to divergent shifts in the abundance and distribution of C3 and C4 grasses. Many studies relate mean climate conditions over relatively long time periods to plant cover, but there is still much uncertainty about how the balance of C3 and C4 species will be affected by climate at a finer temporal scale than season (individual events to months). We monitored cover at five grassland sites with co‐dominant C3 and C4 grass species or only dominant C3 grass species for 6 yr in national parks across the Colorado Plateau region to assess the influence of specific months of climate and water balance on changes in grass cover. C4 grass cover increased and decreased to a larger degree than C3 grass cover with extremely dry and wet consecutive years, but this response varied by ecological site. Climate and water balance explained 10–49% of the inter‐annual variability of cover of C3 and C4 grasses at all sites. High precipitation in the spring and in previous year monsoon storms influenced changes in cover of C4 grasses, with measures of water balance in the same months explaining additional variability. C3 grasses in grasslands where they were dominant were influenced primarily by longer periods of climate, while C3 grasses in grasslands where they were co‐dominant with C4 grasses were influenced little by climate anomalies at either short or long periods of time. Our results suggest that future changes in spring and summer climate and water balance are likely to affect cover of both C3 and C4 grasses, but cover of C4 grasses may be affected more strongly, and the degree of change will depend on soils and topography where they are growing and the timing of the growing season.

Groundwater-fed springs are essential habitat for many dryland species. Climate projections forecast an increasingly arid climate for the southwestern United States. Therefore, an understanding of the relationships between climate and spring discharge is increasingly important. Monthly discharge measurements were recorded from 2001 to 2014 at three jointed bedrock springs in and near Arches National Park, Utah, United States. Discharge was compared with the potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation derived from Daymet gridded climate data. Despite the similarities in location, aquifer type, and climate exposure, all three springs showed different responses to local climate. Two springs emerging from the western aquifer had decreases in discharge during differing portions of their record, while the eastern aquifer spring had stable discharge. At the monthly scale, there was a strong inverse relationship between measured discharge and PET at all three springs, likely due to vegetation accessing the water prior to its surface expression. Annual average winter discharge from both western aquifer springs responded to reductions in 10-year cumulative winter precipitation, while discharge from the eastern aquifer spring did not correspond well to precipitation within the period of record. Uncertainty in climate projections for aquifer recharge remains high, but increasing air temperatures will likely lead to increased PET and reduced spring surface flow. Better characterization of climate and spring discharge relationships will help managers protect contributing areas that may be more susceptible to groundwater withdrawal and better understand the available habitat for groundwater-dependent ecosystems and species.

Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland‐dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate‐sensitive wetland‐dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high‐resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate‐driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long‐term monitoring from national parks coupled with high‐resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland‐dependent species to climate change. Further, long‐term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science‐based decisions that have far‐reaching benefits.