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A bounding risk assessment is presented that evaluates possible human health risk from a hypothetical scenario involving a 10,000-gallon release of flowback water from horizontal fracturing of Marcellus Shale. The water is assumed to be spilled on the ground, infiltrates into groundwater that is a source of drinking water, and an adult and child located downgradient drink the groundwater. Key uncertainties in estimating risk are given explicit quantitative treatment using Monte Carlo analysis. Chemicals that contribute significantly to estimated health risks are identified, as are key uncertainties and variables to which risk estimates are sensitive. The results show that hypothetical exposure via drinking water impacted by chemicals in Marcellus Shale flowback water, assumed to be spilled onto the ground surface, results in predicted bounds between 10-10 and 10-6 (for both adult and child receptors) for excess lifetime cancer risk. Cumulative hazard indices (HICUMULATIVE ) resulting from these hypothetical exposures have predicted bounds (5th to 95th percentile) between 0.02 and 35 for assumed adult receptors and 0.1 and 146 for assumed child receptors. Predicted health risks are dominated by noncancer endpoints related to ingestion of barium and lithium in impacted groundwater. Hazard indices above unity are largely related to exposure to lithium. Salinity taste thresholds are likely to be exceeded before drinking water exposures result in adverse health effects. The findings provide focus for policy discussions concerning flowback water risk management. They also indicate ways to improve the ability to estimate health risks from drinking water impacted by a flowback water spill (i.e., reducing uncertainty).

A method for determining a safety range for non-cancer risks is proposed, similar in concept to the range used for cancer in the management of waste sites. This safety range brings transparency to the chemical specific Reference Dose or Concentration by replacing their “order of magnitude” definitions with a scientifically-based range. EPA’s multiple RfCs for trichloroethylene (TCE) were evaluated as a case study. For TCE, a multi-endpoint safety range was judged to be 3 μg/m3 to 30 μg/m,3 based on a review of kidney effects found in NTP (1988), thymus effects found in Keil et al. (2009) and cardiac effects found in the Johnson et al. (2003) study. This multi-endpoint safety range is derived from studies for which the appropriate averaging time corresponds to different exposure durations, and, therefore, can be applied to both long- and short-term exposures with appropriate consideration of exposure averaging times. For shorter-term exposures, averaging time should be based on the time of cardiac development in humans during fetal growth, an average of approximately 20–25 days.