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1. Reconciling regional nitrogen boundaries with global food security

Author: W. de Vries, Petr Havlik, Tomoko Hasegawa, Michael Obersteiner, Andre Deppermann, Jinfeng Chang, Hugo Valin, and David Leclère
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Population, engineering.material, 01 natural sciences, Agricultural economics, 03 medical and health sciences, Life Science, Production (economics), Duurzaam Bodemgebruik, education, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Sustainable Soil Use, 2. Zero hunger, Consumption (economics), 0303 health sciences, education.field_of_study, WIMEK, Food security, business.industry, Environmental Systems Analysis, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Price index, Milieusysteemanalyse, Greenhouse gas, engineering, Environmental science, Animal Science and Zoology, Fertilizer, business, Agronomy and Crop Science, Food Science
Abstract: While nitrogen inputs are crucial to agricultural production, excess nitrogen contributes to serious ecosystem damage and water pollution. Here, we investigate this trade-off using an integrated modelling framework. We quantify how different nitrogen mitigation options contribute to reconciling food security and compliance with regional nitrogen surplus boundaries. We find that even when respecting regional nitrogen surplus boundaries, hunger could be substantially alleviated with 590 million fewer people at risk of hunger from 2010 to 2050, if all nitrogen mitigation options were mobilized simultaneously. Our scenario experiments indicate that when introducing regional N targets, supply-side measures such as the nitrogen use efficiency improvement are more important than demand-side efforts for food security. International trade plays a key role in sustaining global food security under nitrogen boundary constraints if only a limited set of mitigation options is deployed. Policies that respect regional nitrogen surplus boundaries would yield a substantial reduction in non-CO2 GHG emissions of 2.3 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2050, which indicates a necessity for policy coordination.
Published: 2021

2. Developments and applications of terrestrial biosphere model

Author: Chao Yue, Jinfeng Chang, and Shushi Peng
Subjects: Biosphere model, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, Earth science, Biosphere, Global change, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Plant Science, 01 natural sciences, Carbon cycle, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Terrestrial ecosystem, Ecosystem ecology, Temporal scales, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Hydrosphere
Abstract: Exchanges of energy and matter between terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere and hydrosphere create critical feedbacks to Earth’s climates. To quantify how terrestrial ecosystems respond and feedback to global changes, terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) has been developed and applied in global change ecology during the past decades. In TBMs, myriad of biogeophysical, biogeochemical, hydrological cycles and dynamics processes on different spatial and temporal scales are represented. The TBMs have been applied on assessing and attributing past changes in terrestrial biosphere, and on predicting future changes and their feedbacks to climates. Here, we provide an overview of processes included in TBMs and TBMs applications on carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as their application on exploring human impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Finally, we outline perspectives for future development and application of TBMs.
Published: 2020

3. Global cooling induced by biophysical effects of bioenergy crop cultivation

Author: Jingmeng Wang, Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Laurent Z. X. Li, Jinfeng Chang, Daniel Goll, Thomas Gasser, Xiaomeng Huang, Narayanappa Devaraju, Olivier Boucher, Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Zhejiang University, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)
Subjects: Crops, Agricultural, Carbon Sequestration, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Science, Climate Change, General Physics and Astronomy, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Article, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, 03 medical and health sciences, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Climate-change mitigation, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 2. Zero hunger, Spatial Analysis, 0303 health sciences, Multidisciplinary, Temperature, General Chemistry, Models, Theoretical, 15. Life on land, Energy Transfer, 13. Climate action
Abstract: Bioenergy crop with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key negative emission technology to meet carbon neutrality. However, the biophysical effects of widespread bioenergy crop cultivation on temperature remain unclear. Here, using a coupled atmosphere-land model with an explicit representation of lignocellulosic bioenergy crops, we find that after 50 years of large-scale bioenergy crop cultivation following plausible scenarios, global air temperature decreases by 0.03~0.08 °C, with strong regional contrasts and interannual variability. Over the cultivated regions, woody crops induce stronger cooling effects than herbaceous crops due to larger evapotranspiration rates and smaller aerodynamic resistance. At the continental scale, air temperature changes are not linearly proportional to the cultivation area. Sensitivity tests show that the temperature change is robust for eucalypt but more uncertain for switchgrass among different cultivation maps. Our study calls for new metrics to take the biophysical effects into account when assessing the climate mitigation capacity of BECCS., Bioenergy crops has been proposed as a climate mitigation measure, but how the biophysical effects of large-scale cultivation would influence the climate is not well known. Here, the authors use models to show that large-scale cultivation could cool the global land by 0.03 to 0.08 °C.
Published: 2021

4. Climate warming from managed grasslands cancels the cooling effect of carbon sinks in sparsely grazed and natural grasslands

Author: Chao Yue, Shushi Peng, Michael Obersteiner, Philippe Ciais, Pete Smith, Daniel S. Goll, Chunjing Qiu, Thomas Gasser, Hanqin Tian, Dan Zhu, Jinfeng Chang, Nicolas Viovy, Victoria Naipal, Bertrand Guenet, Petr Havlik, Mario Herrero, Wei Li, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017), European Project: 776810,H2020,H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB,VERIFY(2018), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Science, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, Article, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Grassland, Attribution, Environmental protection, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, geography, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, Soil organic matter, Global warming, Carbon sink, Carbon cycle, General Chemistry, Soil carbon, 15. Life on land, Radiative forcing, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science
Abstract: Grasslands absorb and release carbon dioxide (CO2), emit methane (CH4) from grazing livestock, and emit nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils. Little is known about how the fluxes of these three greenhouse gases, from managed and natural grasslands worldwide, have contributed to past climate change, or the roles of managed pastures versus natural grasslands. Here, global trends and regional patterns of the full greenhouse gas balance of grasslands are estimated for the period 1750 to 2012. A new spatially explicit land surface model is applied, to separate the direct effects of human activities from land management and the indirect effects from climate change, increasing CO2 and regional changes in nitrogen deposition. Direct human management activities are simulated to have caused grasslands to switch from a sink to a source of greenhouse gas, because of increased livestock numbers and accelerated conversion of natural lands to pasture. However, climate change drivers contributed a net carbon sink in soil organic matter, mainly from the increased productivity of grasslands due to increased CO2 and nitrogen deposition. The net radiative forcing of all grasslands is currently close to neutral, but has been increasing since the 1960s. Here, we show that the net global climate warming caused by managed grassland cancels the net climate cooling from carbon sinks in sparsely grazed and natural grasslands. In the face of future climate change and increased demand for livestock products, these findings highlight the need to use sustainable management to preserve and enhance soil carbon storage in grasslands and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from managed grasslands., Grasslands, and the livestock that live there, are dynamic sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, but what controls these fluxes remains poorly characterized. Here the authors show that on the global level, grasslands are climate neutral owing to the cancelling effects of managed vs. natural systems.
Published: 2021

5. Reply to comment by Rigolot on 'Narratives Behind Livestock Methane Mitigation Studies Matter'

Author: Philippe Ciais, Yi Yin, Petr Havlik, Jinfeng Chang, Mario T. Herrero, Shushi Peng, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), CSIRO, St Lucia, Qld, Australia, Partenaires INRAE, ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, business.industry, General Medicine, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, Methane, chemistry.chemical_compound, Geography, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Livestock, Narrative, business, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: This article is a reply to a comment by Rigolot (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000526.; International audience; A comment by Dr. Rigolot acknowledged the scientific value of our recent study on livestock methane emissions and mitigation potentials, while highlighting that our study should better “cultivate synergies between production and more ambitious demand-side efforts.” The author's comment questioned our narrative to be inadvertently (not intentionally) contributing to a “climate delay discourse” in several ways that might hinder ambitious mitigation efforts. This is indeed a welcome perspective that merits further comment.
Published: 2021

6. Recent Slowdown of Anthropogenic Methane Emissions in China Driven by Stabilized Coal Production

Author: Zihan Lu, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Gang Liu, Hui Zeng, Xin Lin, Xinyu Li, Marielle Saunois, Yi Xi, Yuxuan Wu, Shushi Peng, Naveen Chandra, Prabir K. Patra, Shilong Piao, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Methane emissions, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, Slowdown, business.industry, 020209 energy, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, Coal mining, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Pollution, 13. Climate action, Environmental protection, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, business, China, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Waste Management and Disposal, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2021

7. Bioenergy crops for low warming targets require half of the present agricultural fertilizer use

Author: Qing Zhao, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Jingmeng Wang, Mengjie Han, Lei Zhu, Daniel S. Goll, Wei Li, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Chinese Academy of Science (CAS), Zhejiang University, Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS)
Subjects: Crops, Agricultural, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Biomass, 010501 environmental sciences, engineering.material, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, nutrient demand, Nutrient, Environmental protection, Bioenergy, Carbon capture and storage, BECCS, Environmental Chemistry, Fertilizers, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, climate mitigation, business.industry, Agriculture, Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, General Chemistry, 15. Life on land, global production, Carbon, bioenergy crop, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, engineering, Environmental science, Fertilizer, business
Abstract: International audience; Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key option for removing CO$_2$ from the atmosphere over time to achieve climate mitigation. However, an overlooked impact of BECCS is the amount of nutrients required to sustain the production. Here, we use an observation-driven approach to estimate the future bioenergy biomass production for land-use scenarios maximizing BECCS and the pertaining nutrient requirements. The projected global biomass production during the 21st century is comparable to the CO$_2$ removal target for 2 °C warming scenarios. However, 9–19% of this future production hinges on agrotechnology improvement, which remains uncertain. Additional nutrients from fertilizers, corresponding to 56.8 ± 6.1% of the present-day agricultural fertilizer, will be needed to replenish the nutrients removed in harvested biomass at the end of the century, resulting in additional costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Our study reveals the nutrient challenges associated with BECCS and calls for additional management efforts to grow bioenergy crops in a sustainable way.
Published: 2021

8. Climate change-induced greening on the Tibetan Plateau modulated by mountainous characteristics

Author: Yin Zhou, Hongfen Teng, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Zhou Shi, Zhongkui Luo, Hanqin Tian, Songchao Chen, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan University [China], Zhejiang University, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Nanjing Branch], InfoSol (InfoSol), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Auburn University (AU), Sol Agro et hydrosystème Spatialisation (SAS), AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Wuhan Institute of Technology (WIT), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, vegetation greenness, Climate change, mountainous effects, 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, Greening, Tibetan Plateau, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, geography, Plateau, geography.geographical_feature_category, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 15. Life on land, climate change, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Spatial variability, spatial variability, Physical geography
Abstract: Global terrestrial vegetation is greening, particularly in mountain areas, providing strong feedbacks to a series of ecosystem processes. This greening has been primarily attributed to climate change. However, the spatial variability and magnitude of such greening do not synchronize with those of climate change in mountain areas. By integrating two data sets of satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values, which are indicators of vegetation greenness, in the period 1982–2015 across the Tibetan Plateau (TP), we test the hypothesis that climate-change-induced greening is regulated by terrain, baseline climate and soil properties. We find a widespread greening trend over 91% of the TP vegetated areas, with an average greening rate (i.e. increase in NDVI) of 0.011 per decade. The linear mixed-effects model suggests that climate change alone can explain only 26% of the variation in the observed greening. Additionally, 58% of the variability can be explained by the combination of the mountainous characteristics of terrain, baseline climate and soil properties, and 32% of this variability was explained by terrain. Path analysis identified the interconnections of climate change, terrain, baseline climate and soil in determining greening. Our results demonstrate the important role of mountainous effects in greening in response to climate change.
Published: 2021

9. Global Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Pasturelands and Rangelands: Magnitude, Spatiotemporal Patterns, and Attribution

Author: Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Shufen Pan, Hanqin Tian, Bowen Zhang, Shree R. S. Dangal, Jinfeng Chang, Rongting Xu, Jia Yang, Auburn University (AU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, Magnitude (mathematics), Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, chemistry.chemical_compound, Ecosystem model, Environmental Chemistry, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, Soil organic matter, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Nitrous oxide, 15. Life on land, Carbon storage, chemistry, 13. Climate action, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Terrestrial ecosystem, Rangeland
Abstract: International audience; The application of manure and mineral nitrogen (N) fertilizer, and livestock excreta deposition are the main drivers of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in agricultural systems. However, the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of N2O emissions due to different management practices (excreta deposition and manure/fertilizer application) from grassland ecosystems remain unclear. In this study, we used the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model to simulate the spatiotemporal variation in global N2O emissions and their attribution to different sources from both intensively managed (pasturelands) and extensively managed (rangelands) grasslands during 1961–2014. Over the study period, pasturelands and rangelands experienced a significant increase in N2O emissions from 1.74 Tg N2O‐N in 1961 to 3.11 Tg N2O‐N in 2014 (p < 0.05). Globally, pasturelands and rangelands were responsible for 54% (2.2 Tg N2O‐N) of the total agricultural N2O emissions (4.1 Tg N2O‐N) in 2006. Natural and anthropogenic sources contributed 26% (0.64 Tg N2O‐N/year) and 74% (1.78 Tg N2O‐N/year) of the net emissions, respectively. Across different biomes, pasturelands (i.e., C3 and C4) were the single largest contributor to N2O fluxes, accounting for 86% of the net global emissions from grasslands. Among different sources, livestock excreta deposition contributed 54% of the net emissions, followed by manure N (13%) and mineral N (7%) application. Regionally, southern Asia contributed 38% of the total emissions, followed by Europe (29%) and North America (16%). Our modeling study demonstrates that livestock excreta deposition and manure/fertilizer application have dramatically altered the N cycle in pasturelands, with a substantial impact on the climate system.
Published: 2019

10. The Key Role of Production Efficiency Changes in Livestock Methane Emission Mitigation

Author: Philippe Ciais, Mario Herrero, Yi Yin, Shushi Peng, Jinfeng Chang, Petr Havlik, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 2. Zero hunger, Methane emissions, 0303 health sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Climate change, General Medicine, 15. Life on land, Production efficiency, 01 natural sciences, Methane, 03 medical and health sciences, chemistry.chemical_compound, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Environmental protection, Key (cryptography), Environmental science, Livestock, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, business, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The livestock sector is the largest source of anthropogenic methane emissions and is projected to increase in the future with the increased demand for livestock products. Here, we compare livestock methane emissions and emission intensities, defined by the amount of methane emitted per unit of animal proteins, estimated by different methodologies, and identify mitigation potentials in different regions of the world based on possible future projections. We show that emission intensity decreased for most livestock categories globally during 2000–2018, due to an increasing protein-production efficiency, and the IPCC Tier 2 method should be used for capturing the temporal changes in the emission intensities. We further show that efforts on the demand-side to promote balanced, healthy, and environmentally sustainable diets in most countries will not be sufficient to mitigate livestock methane emissions without parallel efforts to improve production efficiency. The latter efforts have much greater mitigating effects than demand-side efforts, and hence should be prioritized in a few developing countries that contribute most of the mitigation potential.
Published: 2021

11. Variations of carbon allocation and turnover time across tropical forests

Author: Lei Fan, Yilong Wang, Shaun Quegan, Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Kailiang Yu, Daniel S. Goll, Hui Yang, Emilie Joetzjer, Jérôme Chave, Jinfeng Chang, Wei Li, Richard Lucas, Thuy Le Toan, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Christopher E. Doughty, Yuanyuan Huang, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT), Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff], University of Augsburg (UNIA), Météo-France Direction Interrégionale Sud-Est (DIRSE), Météo-France, Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Aberystwyth University, University of Sheffield [Sheffield], Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), ANR-10-LABX-0025,CEBA,CEnter of the study of Biodiversity in Amazonia(2010), ANR-10-LABX-0041,TULIP,Towards a Unified theory of biotic Interactions: the roLe of environmental(2010), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, University of Augsburg [Augsburg], Météo France, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), and Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, productivity allocation, Atmospheric sciences, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, carbon turnover time, 03 medical and health sciences, carbon cycle modelling, tropical ecosystem, Ecosystem, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 030304 developmental biology, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, Global and Planetary Change, Biomass (ecology), Forest inventory, Ecology, Tropics, Carbon sink, Primary production, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, 13. Climate action, plant traits, Environmental science, Spatial variability, dynamic systems
Abstract: International audience; Aim : The carbon sink in tropical forests is a highly uncertain component of the global carbon budget. An understanding of the processes controlling this sink requires better quantification of carbon allocation, stocks and turnover times.Location : Tropical forests.Time period : 2010–2017.Major taxa studied : Tropical forest ecosystem.Methods : We develop a novel data assimilation system using satellite-based annual above-ground biomass derived from L-band vegetation optical depth with 25 km × 25 km grid spacing, together with leaf area, to constrain the 25 km × 25 km carbon allocation patterns of net primary productivity (NPP) into the wood, leaf and root pools, and their turnover times. Our average data-driven estimates of these variables are broadly consistent with independent ground-based estimates of NPP allocation and wood turnover from forest inventory plots.Results : In tropical forest, on average, the NPP allocation into wood (0.30 ± 0.04) is significantly higher than that into leaves (0.24 ± 0.07). From the wet to dry tropics, forest NPP allocation into both wood and leaves declines slightly. The turnover times of forest leaf pools exhibit little spatial variation, whereas the turnover times of wood pools in Africa (median and interquartile range: urn:x-wiley:1466822X:media:geb13302:geb13302-math-0001 years) are slightly longer than those in South America (urn:x-wiley:1466822X:media:geb13302:geb13302-math-0002 years) and Southeast Asia (urn:x-wiley:1466822X:media:geb13302:geb13302-math-0003 years). Our datasets reveal emergent trade-offs across climatic and vegetation gradients between growth and life span/turnover for both wood and leaves. The spatial gradients of NPP allocation to wood/leaves are associated with canopy height, adjusted by climate condition and nutrient acquisition. The spatial gradients of wood and leaf turnover times are influenced mainly by climate and leaf characteristics.Main conclusions : Our data-driven estimates of carbon allocation and turnover times provide a basis for more detailed exploration of these mechanisms in field studies. This highlights that improved model representation of carbon allocation and turnover is necessary for more accurate prediction of future carbon dynamics.
Published: 2021

12. Risk and vulnerability of Mongolian grasslands under climate change

Author: Enkhbaatar Davaanyam, Banzragch Nandintsetseg, Philippe Ciais, Bazartseren Boldgiv, Tserenpurev Bat-Oyun, Altangerel Batbold, Jinfeng Chang, Nils Chr. Stenseth, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: productivity, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, drought, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, Grassland, Ecosystem services, Ecosystem, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, ecosystem, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Biomass (ecology), geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Agroforestry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Primary production, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, climate change, Productivity (ecology), 13. Climate action, Mongolian grasslands, Environmental science
Abstract: Climate change is projected to increase the aridity of semi-arid ecosystems, including Mongolian grasslands (MG), which provide ecosystem services that support food supply and pastoralist lifestyle. Here, we conducted a grid-scale (0.5° × 0.5°) probabilistic risk assessment of MG under climate change for 40 years (1976–2015) based on probability theory. We evaluated changes of risk (impacts) and vulnerability of MG to drought between the recent two decades R20 = 1996–2015 and the previous two decades P20 = 1976–1995. The risk is quantified as the product of the probability of hazardous drought and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of hazardous drought is defined from the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index. Vulnerability is defined as the expected differences of key ecosystem variables between years with and without hazardous conditions. The ecosystem variables are productivity (peak aboveground biomass, net primary productivity, and leaf area index) and root-zone plant-available soil moisture, simulated with a process-based vegetation model Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems-Grassland Management validated with field observations of biomass and soil moisture. Results reveal that MG experienced more frequent hazardous droughts with rapid warming and slight drying during R20 aggravated by ever-increasing grazing intensity (34% compared to P20), which resulted in a reduction in soil water availability and grassland productivity, particularly in northeastern areas (20%–65%). The risk of drought to productivity increased by 10% between P20 and R20 over extended areas, particularly in northcentral and northeast Mongolia. The increase in the risk to MG was mainly caused by climate change-induced increase in the probability of hazardous drought and, to a lesser extent, by the increasing vulnerability. Recent droughts modify the risk to grasslands, particularly in northcentral and northeast Mongolia, suggesting that these regions need strategic management for both adaptation and ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change impacts.
Published: 2021

13. Empirical estimates of regional carbon budgets imply reduced global soil heterotrophic respiration

Author: Anna Peregon, Chao Yue, Grégoire Broquet, Chunjing Qiu, Jinfeng Chang, Thomas Gasser, Julia Pongratz, Bertrand Guenet, Ashley-P Ballantyne, Alessandro Baccini, Yilong Wang, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Anatoly Shvidenko, Fabienne Maignan, Riccardo Valentini, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Yitong Yao, Alexandra G. Konings, Daniel S. Goll, Yi Yin, Shushi Peng, Rob J Andres, Hui Yang, Prabir K. Patra, Benjamin Poulter, Jens Hartmann, Anthony W. King, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, A. Johannes Dolman, Wei Li, Vanessa Haverd, Ana Bastos, Dan Zhu, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Pierre Regnier, Jakob Zscheischler, Yi Liu, Peter A. Raymond, Rong Wang, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Global Carbon Project (GCP), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO)-Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Laboratoire de géologie de l'ENS (LGENS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Earth Sciences, Systems Ecology, and Earth and Climate
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, AcademicSubjects/SCI00010, 530 Physics, Atmospheric carbon cycle, Inventory data, chemistry.chemical_element, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, carbon budget, SDG 17 - Partnerships for the Goals, SDG 13 - Climate Action, soil carbon, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Carbon flux, Biomass (ecology), Multidisciplinary, Heterotrophic respiration, Géochimie, Primary production, human appropriation of ecosystems, Soil carbon, 15. Life on land, chemistry, 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental science, AcademicSubjects/MED00010, Carbon, Research Article
Abstract: Resolving regional carbon budgets is critical for informing land-based mitigation policy. For nine regions covering nearly the whole globe, we collected inventory estimates of carbon-stock changes complemented by satellite estimates of biomass changes where inventory data are missing. The net land–atmospheric carbon exchange (NEE) was calculated by taking the sum of the carbon-stock change and lateral carbon fluxes from crop and wood trade, and riverine-carbon export to the ocean. Summing up NEE from all regions, we obtained a global ‘bottom-up’ NEE for net land anthropogenic CO2 uptake of –2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1 consistent with the independent top-down NEE from the global atmospheric carbon budget during 2000–09. This estimate is so far the most comprehensive global bottom-up carbon budget accounting, which set up an important milestone for global carbon-cycle studies. By decomposing NEE into component fluxes, we found that global soil heterotrophic respiration amounts to a source of CO2 of 39 PgC yr−1 with an interquartile of 33–46 PgC yr−1—a much smaller portion of net primary productivity than previously reported., info:eu-repo/semantics/published
Published: 2021

14. Magnitude and uncertainty of nitrous oxide emissions from North America based on bottom‐up and top‐down approaches: Informing future research and national inventories

Author: Yuanzhi Yao, Feng Zhou, Taylor Maavara, Jinfeng Chang, Peter A. Raymond, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Shufen Pan, Francesco N. Tubiello, Naiqing Pan, Rona Thompson, Nicolas Vuichard, Cynthia D. Nevison, Pierre Regnier, Josep G. Canadell, Rongting Xu, Hanqin Tian, Hao Shi, Shree R. S. Dangal, Eric A. Davidson, Robert B. Jackson, Dylan B. Millet, Ronny Lauerwald, Chris Wilson, Sönke Zaehle, Fortunat Joos, Jia Yang, Kelley C. Wells, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sebastian Lienert, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), University of Minnesota [Twin Cities] (UMN), University of Minnesota System, Yale University [New Haven], Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), European Project: 776810,H2020,H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB,VERIFY(2018), and European Project: 647204,H2020,ERC-2014-CoG,QUINCY(2015)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 530 Physics, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Magnitude (mathematics), Nitrous oxide, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, chemistry.chemical_compound, Geophysics, chemistry, 13. Climate action, 11. Sustainability, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: International audience; We synthesized N2O emissions over North America using 17 bottom-up (BU) estimates from 1980–2016 and five top-down (TD) estimates from 1998 to 2016. The BU-based total emission shows a slight increase owing to U.S. agriculture, while no consistent trend is shown in TD estimates. During 2007–2016, North American N2O emissions are estimated at 1.7 (1.0–3.0) Tg N yr−1 (BU) and 1.3 (0.9–1.5) Tg N yr−1 (TD). Anthropogenic emissions were twice as large as natural fluxes from soil and water. Direct agricultural and industrial activities accounted for 68% of total anthropogenic emissions, 71% of which was contributed by the U.S. Our estimates of U.S. agricultural emissions are comparable to the EPA greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, which includes estimates from IPCC tier 1 (emission factor) and tier 3 (process-based modeling) approaches. Conversely, our estimated agricultural emissions for Canada and Mexico are twice as large as the respective national GHG inventories.Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most important greenhouse gase (GHG) after CO2 and CH4 causing global warming. Among world regions, North America (defined herein as U.S., Canada, and Mexico) is the second largest source of N2O emissions globally, and previous source estimates for this region vary widely. This study aims to provide a comprehensive N2O assessment over North America including all available estimates based on a number of approaches. We report total emissions, and emissions from four anthropogenic source sectors, over the past four decades. Agriculture and industry are two major N2O sources in North America. Our results show a minor increase in the total N2O emission due to agricultural trends in the U.S. Our bottom-up estimate of U.S. agricultural N2O emissions are close to those in the EPA national GHG inventory that includes both empirical and model results. The high consistency suggests the need to take process-based modeling results into account for future national GHG inventories.
Published: 2021

15. Saturation of global terrestrial carbon sink under a high warming scenario

Author: Sebastian Ostberg, Katja Frieler, Anne Gädeke, Miodrag Stevanovic, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Hickler, Hao Shi, Naiqing Pan, Jia Yang, Bojie Fu, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Hanqin Tian, Jinfeng Chang, Matthew Forrest, Shufen Pan, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Global warming, Carbon sink, 15. Life on land, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, 13. Climate action, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, Saturation (chemistry), [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract: International audience; The terrestrial carbon sink provides a critical negative feedback to climate warming, yet large uncertainty exists on its long-term dynamics. Here we combined terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and climate projections, together with climate-specific land use change, to investigate both the trend and interannual variability (IAV) of the terrestrial carbon sink from 1986 to 2099 under two representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP6.0. The results reveal a saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink by the end of this century under RCP6.0 due to warming and declined CO2 effects. Compared to 1986–2005 (0.96 ± 0.44 Pg C yr−1), during 2080–2099 the terrestrial carbon sink would decrease to 0.60 ± 0.71 Pg C yr−1 but increase to 3.36 ± 0.77 Pg C yr−1, respectively, under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0. The carbon sink caused by CO2, land use change and climate change during 2080–2099 is −0.08 ± 0.11 Pg C yr−1, 0.44 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−1, and 0.24 ± 0.70 Pg C yr−1 under RCP2.6, and 4.61 ± 0.17 Pg C yr−1, 0.22 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1, and -1.47 ± 0.72 Pg C yr−1 under RCP6.0. In addition, the carbon sink IAV shows stronger variance under RCP6.0 than RCP2.6. Under RCP2.6, temperature shows higher correlation with the carbon sink IAV than precipitation in most time, which however is the opposite under RCP6.0. These results suggest that the role of terrestrial carbon sink in curbing climate warming would be weakened in a no-mitigation world in future, and active mitigation efforts are required as assumed under RCP2.6.
Published: 2021

16. Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios

Author: Wim Thiery, Melissa Head, Moritz Langer, Eleanor J. Burke, Sibyll Schaphoff, Julia Boike, Kirsten Thonicke, Anne Gädeke, Jinfeng Chang, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, BMBF: 01LS1711C, This research was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the European Research Area for Climate Services ERA4CS with project funding reference 518 number 01LS1711C (ISIPedia project). CPOR acknowledges funding from the Horizon 2020 project CASCADES (Grant Agreement 821010). ML was supported by a BMBF grant (project PermaR-isk, Grant No. 01LN1709A). WT acknowledges the Uniscientia Foundation and the ETH Zurich Foundation for their support to this research. EJB was funded by the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, under Grant Agreement number 641816, the ‘Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, Knowledge, Dissemination and Outreach (CRESCENDO)’ project (11/2015–10/2020) and the Met Office Had-ley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra., European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015), Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Earth and Climate
Subjects: Resource (biology), 333.7 Landflächen, Naturräume für Freizeit und Erholung, Naturreservate, Energie, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, Permafrost, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, Permafrost degradation, ice roads, permafrost, climate change, land surface models, Arctic transport, winter roads, Arctic accessibility, ddc:333, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Science & Technology, Winter roads, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Pan arctic, Global warming, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Livelihood, 13. Climate action, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], General Circulation Model, Physical Sciences, Environmental science, Physical geography, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Environmental Sciences
Abstract: Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic. Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347 Horizon 2020 Framework Programmehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Uniscientia Foundation
Published: 2021

17. Global and regional phosphorus budgets in agricultural systems and their implications for phosphorus-use efficiency

Author: Philippe Ciais, Jordi Sardans, Michael Obersteiner, Rong Wang, Daniel S. Goll, Junguo Liu, Fei Lun, Josep Peñuelas, Thomas Nesme, Jinfeng Chang, Southern University of Science and Technology [Shenzhen] (SUSTech), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro), Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-CSIC, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), South University of Science and Technology of China, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère ( ISPA ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine ( Bordeaux Sciences Agro ), Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals ( CREAF ), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona [Barcelona] ( UAB ), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ( IIASA ), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (ISPA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona [Barcelona] (UAB), Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, chemistry.chemical_element, 010501 environmental sciences, engineering.material, Pasture, 01 natural sciences, Phosphorus budget, 03 medical and health sciences, Grazing, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ddc:550, Regional scale, Global scale, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 030304 developmental biology, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 2. Zero hunger, lcsh:GE1-350, geography, Biomass (ecology), 0303 health sciences, geography.geographical_feature_category, Agroforestry, business.industry, Phosphorus, lcsh:QE1-996.5, 15. Life on land, Phosphorus-use efficiency, lcsh:Geology, chemistry, Agronomy, Agriculture, 13. Climate action, Soil water, engineering, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Livestock, Fertilizer, business, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: Agraïments: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571022, 41625001), the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (Grant 8151002). The application of phosphorus (P) fertilizer to agricultural soils increased by 3.2 % annually from 2002 to 2010. We quantified in detail the P inputs and outputs of cropland and pasture, and the P fluxes through human and livestock consumers of agricultural products, at global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P input (21.3 Tg P yr−1) into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils during this period, with the rest lost to bodies of water through complex flows. Global P accumulation in agricultural soil increased from 2002 to 2010, despite decreases in 2008 and 2009, and the P accumulation occurred primarily in cropland. Despite the global increase of soil P, 32 % of the world's cropland and 43 % of the pasture had soil P deficits. Increasing soil P deficits were found for African cropland, versus increasing P accumulation in Eastern Asia. European and North American pasture had a soil P deficit because continuous removal of biomass P by grazing exceeded P inputs. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution among countries through the flows of P in fertilizer and food among countries. Based on country-scale budgets and trends we propose policy options to potentially mitigate regional P imbalances in agricultural soils, particularly by optimizing the use of phosphate fertilizer and recycling of waste P. The trend of increasing consumption of livestock products will require more P inputs to the agricultural system, implying a low P-use efficiency aggravating the P stocks scarcity in the future. The global and regional phosphorus budgets and their PUEs in agricultural systems is publicly available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.875296.
Published: 2021

18. Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales

Author: Yoshihide Wada, Fang Zhao, Yasushi Honda, Thomas Hickler, Jörg Steinkamp, Nikolay Khabarov, Tobias Stacke, Lila Warszawski, David N. Bresch, Tobias Geiger, Wim Thiery, Kazuya Nishina, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sebastian Ostberg, Hannes Müller Schmied, Manolis Grillakis, Iliusi Vega, Kerry Emanuel, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Stefan Lange, Naota Hanasaki, Jinfeng Chang, Jan Volkholz, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Christian Folberth, Matthias Büchner, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Minoru Yoshikawa, Sven Willner, Christoph Müller, Katja Frieler, Hong Yang, Jacob Schewe, Simon N. Gosling, Alexandra Henrot, Dieter Gerten, Marie Dury, Veronika Huber, Chao Yue, Wenfeng Liu, Ted Veldkamp, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, ERCA 821010 641816 SAW‐2016‐PIK‐1, 603864 Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, BMBF: 01LA1829A, 01LS1201A2, 01LS1711F Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, ETH: Fel‐45 15‐1 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, MINECO: PCIN‐2017‐046, We thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers for constructive feedback. We thank three other anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper submitted to a different journal. This research was supported in part by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant numbers 01LS1201A2, 01LS1711F, and 01LA1829A) and the EU FP7 HELIX project (grant number 603864). Some authors acknowledge support from the Leibniz Competition projects SAW‐2013‐PIK‐5 (EXPACT) and SAW‐2016‐PIK‐1 (ENGAGE). Some authors acknowledge funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 821010 (CASCADES). N. H., K. N., and Y. H. acknowledge support from the ERTD Funds 2RF‐1802 and S‐14 of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. W. T. was supported by an ETH Zurich postdoctoral fellowship (Fel‐45 15‐1). V. H. was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (MINECO, grant number PCIN‐2017‐046). P. C. acknowledges support from the CLAND ANR Convergence Institute. S. L. acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 641816 (CRESCENDO). Open access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL., Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Water and Climate Risk
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, HYDROLOGICAL MODELS, Population, 0207 environmental engineering, FLOOD RISK, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, 02 engineering and technology, Subtropics, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 01 natural sciences, Population density, Latitude, Climate-related extreme events, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), SDG 13 - Climate Action, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, BURNED AREA, GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, 020701 environmental engineering, education, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Event (probability theory), education.field_of_study, Science & Technology, Land use, Global warming, VEGETATION MODEL ORCHIDEE, Geology, 15. Life on land, TERRESTRIAL CARBON BALANCE, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Physical Sciences, TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY, HURRICANE INTENSITY, Environmental science, Tropical cyclone, INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Environmental Sciences, INCORPORATING SPITFIRE
Abstract: Summarization: The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than fivefold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia. Presented on: Earth's Future
Published: 2020

19. Reducing Uncertainties of Future Global Soil Carbon Responses to Climate and Land Use Change With Emergent Constraints

Author: Sebastian Ostberg, Thomas Hickler, Bertrand Guenet, Wenfang Xu, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Sibyll Schaphoff, Hanqing Tian, Katja Frieler, Matthew Forrest, Nicolas Viovy, Hao Shi, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jinfeng Chang, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Auburn University (AU), Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main-Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research - Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Leibniz Association-Leibniz Association, ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Soil carbon, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, Environmental protection, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, Land use, land-use change and forestry, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2020

20. Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems

Author: Wim Thiery, Louis François, Sebastian Ostberg, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Hickler, Min Chen, Jinfeng Chang, Hao Shi, Matthew Forrest, Anne Gädeke, Hanqin Tian, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), and Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, UNCERTAINTY, 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, ISIMIP2b, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Ecosystem, biome sector, FUTURE CLIMATE, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, EXCHANGE, northern high latitudes, TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, Biomass (ecology), Science & Technology, CLIMATE-CHANGE, Paris agreement, climatic impacts, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Global warming, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Primary production, 15. Life on land, CARBON BUDGET, TRENDS, PERMAFROST CARBON, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Physical Sciences, PATTERNS, Environmental science, Climate model, Terrestrial ecosystem, CO2, Physical geography, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Environmental Sciences
Abstract: Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems.
Published: 2020

21. Climate Extreme Versus Carbon Extreme: Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes to Temperature and Precipitation

Author: Katja Frieler, Sebastian Ostberg, Jia Yang, Kazuya Nishina, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Thomas Hickler, Louis François, Hao Shi, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Shufen Pan, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fang Zhao, Hanqin Tian, Jörg Steinkamp, Bojie Fu, Auburn University (AU), Mississippi State University [Mississippi], Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Liège, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main-Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research - Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Leibniz Association-Leibniz Association, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Soil Science, chemistry.chemical_element, Weather and climate, Aquatic Science, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Ecosystem, Precipitation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology, Ecology, Paleontology, Biosphere, Primary production, Forestry, 15. Life on land, Arid, chemistry, Productivity (ecology), 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Environmental science, Carbon
Abstract: International audience; Carbon fluxes at the land-atmosphere interface are strongly influenced by weather and climate conditions. Yet what is usually known as “climate extremes” does not always translate into very high or low carbon fluxes or so-called “carbon extremes.” To reveal the patterns of how climate extremes influence terrestrial carbon fluxes, we analyzed the interannual variations in ecosystem carbon fluxes simulated by the Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBMs) in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. At the global level, TBMs simulated reduced ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP; 18.5 ± 9.3 g C m−2 yr−1), but enhanced heterotrophic respiration (Rh; 7 ± 4.6 g C m−2 yr−1) during extremely hot events. TBMs also simulated reduced NPP (60.9 ± 24.4 g C m−2 yr−1) and reduced Rh (16.5 ± 11.4 g C m−2 yr−1) during extreme dry events. Influences of precipitation extremes on terrestrial carbon uptake were larger in the arid/semiarid zones than other regions. During hot extremes, ecosystems in the low latitudes experienced a larger reduction in carbon uptake. However, a large fraction of carbon extremes did not occur in concert with either temperature or precipitation extremes. Rather these carbon extremes are likely to be caused by the interactive effects of the concurrent temperature and precipitation anomalies. The interactive effects showed considerable spatial variations with the largest effects on NPP in South America and Africa. Additionally, TBMs simulated a stronger sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to precipitation than satellite estimates. This study provides new insights into the complex ecosystem responses to climate extremes, especially the emergent properties of carbon dynamics resulting from compound climate extremes.
Published: 2020

22. Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models : where do we stand?

Author: Inger Kappel Schmidt, Romà Ogaya, Ying-Ping Wang, Martin G. De Kauwe, Qiuan Zhu, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Anthony J. Parolari, Alan K. Knapp, Athanasios Paschalis, Enqing Hou, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Viovy, Donghai Wu, Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Ciais, Changhui Peng, Jinfeng Chang, Hao Shi, Paul J. Hanson, Simone Fatichi, Hanqin Tian, Anna M. Ukkola, Sara Vicca, Jaime Kigel, Yiqi Luo, Lena Boysen, Marcelo Sternberg, Klaus Steenberg Larsen, Julia Pongratz, Patrick Meir, Marc Estiarte, Sebastian Lienert, Elisabeth Tschumi, Michael Bahn, Anna B. Harper, Wei Li, Serge Rambal, Zhuonan Wang, Karina Williams, Josep Peñuelas, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, COMMUNITY LAND MODEL, Biodiversity & Conservation, 05 Environmental Sciences, drought, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, irrigation, Terrestrial biosphere models, Evapotranspiration, CLIMATE EXTREMES, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, Biosphere, Vegetation, Chemistry, Productivity (ecology), Biodiversity Conservation, Seasons, INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, WATER-USE EFFICIENCY, VEGETATION DYNAMICS, 530 Physics, STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE, Growing season, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, SOIL-MOISTURE, 010603 evolutionary biology, Carbon Cycle, Carbon cycle, terrestrial biosphere models, Environmental Chemistry, Ecosystem, Leaf area index, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Biology, Irrigation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, CARBON FLUXES, Science & Technology, Drought, Rainfall manipulation experiment, LEAF-AREA INDEX, Water, 15. Life on land, 06 Biological Sciences, Plant Leaves, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, PRECIPITATION PULSES, Environmental Sciences, rainfall manipulation experiment
Abstract: Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model‐data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of ten terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at ten sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed.The key results are:(a) Inter‐model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with time scales. In severely water limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily‐monthly) time scales and reduces on longer (seasonal‐annual) scales.(b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter‐model variability.(c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition.(d) All models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. The relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models.
Published: 2020

23. Sensitivity of land use change emission estimates to historical land use and land cover mapping

Author: Jinfeng Chang, Shushi Peng, Tao Wang, Philippe Ciais, Wei Li, Fabienne Maignan, and Chao Yue
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Biosphere model, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Land use, business.industry, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Vegetation, Land cover, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, Land information system, 13. Climate action, Agricultural land, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, Land development, Land use, land-use change and forestry, Physical geography, business, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract: The carbon emissions from land use and land cover change (ELUC) are an important anthropogenic component of the global carbon budget. Yet these emissions have a large uncertainty. Uncertainty in historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) maps and their implementation in global vegetation models is one of the key sources of the spread of ELUC calculated by global vegetation models. In this study, we used the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems terrestrial biosphere model to investigate how the different transition rules to define the priority of conversion from natural vegetation to agricultural land affect the historical reconstruction of plant functional types (PFTs) and ELUC. First, we reconstructed 10 sets of historical PFT maps using different transition rules and two methods. Then, we calculated ELUC from these 10 different historical PFT maps and an additional published PFT reconstruction, using the difference between two sets of simulations (with and without LULCC). The total area of forest loss is highly correlated with the total simulated ELUC (R2 = 0.83, P
Published: 2017

24. Changes in productivity and carbon storage of grasslands in China under future global warming scenarios of 1.5°C and 2°C

Author: Shilong Piao, Richard Betts, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Zhaoqi Wang, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], University of Exeter, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, Plant Science, Carbon sequestration, 01 natural sciences, Grassland, Environmental protection, Ecosystem, China, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Productivity, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, Global warming, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Plant ecology, 13. Climate action, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science
Abstract: Aims The impacts of future global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C on the productivity and carbon (C) storage of grasslands in China are not clear yet, although grasslands in China support ~45 million agricultural populations and more than 238 million livestock populations, and are sensitive to global warming. Methods This study used a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model named ORCHIDEE to simulate C cycle of alpine meadows and temperate grasslands in China. This model was driven by high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) climate of global specific warming levels (SWL) of 1.5°C and 2°C (warmer than pre-industrial level), which is downscaled by EC-EARTH3-HR v3.1 with sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration as boundary conditions from IPSL-CM5-LR (low spatial resolution, 2.5° × 1.5°) Earth system model (ESM). Important Findings Compared with baseline (1971–2005), the mean annual air temperature over Chinese grasslands increased by 2.5°C and 3.7°C under SWL1.5 and SWL2, respectively. The increase in temperature in the alpine meadow was higher than that in the temperate grassland under both SWL1.5 and SWL2. Precipitation was also shown an increasing trend under SWL2 over most of the Chinese grasslands. Strong increases in gross primary productivity (GPP) were simulated in the Chinese grasslands, and the mean annual GPP (GPPMA) increased by 19.32% and 43.62% under SWL1.5 and SWL2, respectively. The C storage increased by 0.64 Pg C and 1.37 Pg C under SWL1.5 and SWL2 for 50 years simulations. The GPPMA was 0.670.390.88 (0.82) (model meanminmax (this study)), 0.850.451.24 (0.97) and 0.940.611.30 (1.17) Pg C year−1 under baseline, SWL1.5 and SWL2 modeled by four CMIP5 ESMs (phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Earth System Models). In contrast, the mean annual net biome productivity was −18.55−40.374.47 (−3.61),18.65−2.0364.03 (10.29) and 24.158.3838.77 (24.93) Tg C year−1 under baseline, SWL1.5 and SWL2 modeled by the four CMIP5 ESMs. Our results indicated that the Chinese grasslands would have higher productivity than the baseline and can mitigate climate change through increased C sequestration under future global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C with the increase of precipitation and the global increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Published: 2019

25. Weakened growth of cropland-N2O emissions in China associated with nationwide policy interventions

Author: Qihui Wang, Åsa Kasimir, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Eri Saikawa, Radosław Juszczak, Robert M. Rees, Ziyin Shang, Jinfeng Chang, Minpeng Chen, Feng Zhou, Georg Wohlfahrt, Xiaoqing Cui, Stephen J. Del Grosso, Pete Smith, Simone Sabbatini, Vincenzo Magliulo, Yan Bo, Volodymyr I. Medinets, Hanqin Tian, Simona Castaldi, Sergiy Medinets, Shang, Z., Zhou, F., Smith, P., Saikawa, E., Ciais, P., Chang, J., Tian, H., Del Grosso, S. J., Ito, A., Chen, M., Wang, Q., Bo, Y., Cui, X., Castaldi, S., Juszczak, R., Kasimir, A., Magliulo, V., Medinets, S., Medinets, V., Rees, R. M., Wohlfahrt, G., Sabbatini, S., Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], University of Aberdeen, Emory University [Atlanta, GA], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Department of Meteorology, National Research Council (CNR), The John van Geest Cancer Research Centre, School of Science and Technology-Nottingham Trent University, University of Innsbruck, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Leopold Franzens Universität Innsbruck - University of Innsbruck
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Economic growth, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, temporal trend, agricultural management, Agricultural management, Psychological intervention, land surface model, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Political science, Environmental Chemistry, policy analysi, China, Observation data, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Productivity, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, agricultural soil, Ecology, nitrous oxide, business.industry, Nitrous oxide, agricultural soils, emission, flux upscaling, process-based model, spatial pattern, emission inventory, 15. Life on land, Policy analysis, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, business
Abstract: China has experienced rapid agricultural development over recent decades, accompanied by increased fertilizer consumption in croplands; yet, the trend and drivers of the associated nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions remain uncertain. The primary sources of this uncertainty are the coarse spatial variation of activity data and the incomplete model representation of N2 O emissions in response to agricultural management. Here, we provide new data-driven estimates of cropland-N2 O emissions across China in 1990-2014, compiled using a global cropland-N2 O flux observation dataset, nationwide survey-based reconstruction of N-fertilization and irrigation, and an updated nonlinear model. In addition, we have evaluated the drivers behind changing cropland-N2 O patterns using an index decomposition analysis approach. We find that China's annual cropland-N2 O emissions increased on average by 11.2GgN/year2 (p&nbsp
Published: 2019

26. Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty

Author: Robert B. Jackson, Josep G. Canadell, Jinfeng Chang, Eric A. Davidson, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Almut Arneth, Rona Thompson, Stefan Olin, Shufen Pan, Bowen Zhang, Chaoqun Lu, Sönke Zaehle, Changhui Peng, Jia Yang, Stefan Gerber, Nicolas Vuichard, Sebastian Lienert, Palmira Messina, Fortunat Joos, Eri Saikawa, Wilfried Winiwarter, Hanqin Tian, Rongting Xu, Auburn University (AU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE), Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (UQTR), Emory University [Atlanta, GA], Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, USC Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California (USC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), and Lund University [Lund]
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Time Factors, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, Nitrous Oxide, Climate change, Land cover, Atmospheric sciences, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, chemistry.chemical_compound, Greenhouse Gases, Soil, Grazing, Environmental Chemistry, Industrial Development, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, Air Pollutants, Ecology, Uncertainty, Biosphere, Nitrous oxide, 15. Life on land, Models, Theoretical, Manure, Deposition (aerosol physics), chemistry, 13. Climate action, Soil water, Environmental science
Abstract: Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, on global soil N2 O emissions for the period 1861-2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N2 O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 in the pre-industrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 in the recent decade (2007-2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 to 3.3 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N2 O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N2 O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N2 O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N2 O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15% and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration reduced soil N2 O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N2 O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process-based simulations.
Published: 2018

27. Temporal response of soil organic carbon after grassland-related land-use change

Author: Sergey Khudyaev, Jinfeng Chang, Vincent Chaplot, Yilong Wang, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Chao Yue, Wei Li, Shushi Peng, Bertrand Guenet, Shilong Piao, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry, Siberian Branch Russian Academy of Sciences, Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), European Project: 603542,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,LUC4C(2013), European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Subjects: Carbon Sequestration, China, NPP, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Forests, temporalchange, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Grassland, Soil, Temperate climate, Environmental Chemistry, Land use, land-use change and forestry, Ecosystem, Soil properties, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Global and Planetary Change, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, land-use and land-cover change, Primary production, Agriculture, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Soil carbon, soil carbon response curve, 15. Life on land, Carbon, soil organic carbon, 13. Climate action, Turnover, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science
Abstract: The net flux of CO2 exchanged with the atmosphere following grassland-related land-use change (LUC) depends on the subsequent temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Yet, the magnitude and timing of these dynamics are still unclear. We compiled a global data set of 836 paired-sites to quantify temporal SOC changes after grassland-related LUC. In order to discriminate between SOC losses from the initial ecosystem and gains from the secondary one, the post-LUC time series of SOC data was combined with satellite-based net primary production observations as a proxy of carbon input to the soil. Globally, land conversion from either cropland or forest into grassland leads to SOC accumulation; the reverse shows net SOC loss. The SOC response curves vary between different regions. Conversion of cropland to managed grassland results in more SOC accumulation than natural grassland recovery from abandoned cropland. We did not consider the biophysical variables (e.g., climate conditions and soil properties) when fitting the SOC turnover rate into the observation data but analyzed the relationships between the fitted turnover rate and these variables. The SOC turnover rate is significantly correlated with temperature and precipitation (p0.05). Comparing our results with predictions from bookkeeping models, we found that bookkeeping models overestimate by 56% of the long-term (100years horizon) cumulative SOC emissions for grassland-related LUC types in tropical and temperate regions since 2000. We also tested the spatial representativeness of our data set and calculated SOC response curves using the representative subset of sites in each region. Our study provides new insight into the impact grassland-related LUC on the global carbon budget and sheds light on the potential of grassland conservation for climate mitigation.
Published: 2018

28. Incorporating grassland management in ORCHIDEE: model description and evaluation at 11 eddy-covariance sites in Europe

Author: Jean-François Soussana, Philippe Ciais, Tao Wang, Raphaël Martin, Romain Lardy, Anne Cozic, Katja Klumpp, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Jinfeng Chang, Anne-Isabelle Graux, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Calcul Scientifique (CALCULS), UR 0874 Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP)-Ecologie des Forêts, Prairies et milieux Aquatiques (EFPA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), CarboEurope IP, Nitroeurope project, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Eddy covariance, modèle, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, modèle orchidée, Grassland, Hydrology (agriculture), Ecosystem model, Grazing, gestion de la prairie, Ecosystem, pasim, Leaf area index, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, flux de carbone, Agroforestry, lcsh:QE1-996.5, prairie, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, lcsh:Geology, 13. Climate action, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Ecosystem respiration
Abstract: This study describes how management of grasslands is included in the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) process-based ecosystem model designed for large-scale applications, and how management affects modeled grassland–atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The new model, ORCHIDEE-GM (grassland management) is enabled with a management module inspired from a grassland model (PaSim, version 5.0), with two grassland management practices being considered, cutting and grazing. The evaluation of the results from ORCHIDEE compared with those of ORCHIDEE-GM at 11 European sites, equipped with eddy covariance and biometric measurements, shows that ORCHIDEE-GM can realistically capture the cut-induced seasonal variation in biometric variables (LAI: leaf area index; AGB: aboveground biomass) and in CO2 fluxes (GPP: gross primary productivity; TER: total ecosystem respiration; and NEE: net ecosystem exchange). However, improvements at grazing sites are only marginal in ORCHIDEE-GM due to the difficulty in accounting for continuous grazing disturbance and its induced complex animal–vegetation interactions. Both NEE and GPP on monthly to annual timescales can be better simulated in ORCHIDEE-GM than in ORCHIDEE without management. For annual CO2 fluxes, the NEE bias and RMSE (root mean square error) in ORCHIDEE-GM are reduced by 53% and 20%, respectively, compared to ORCHIDEE. ORCHIDEE-GM is capable of modeling the net carbon balance (NBP) of managed temperate grasslands (37 ± 30 gC m−2 yr−1 (P < 0.01) over the 11 sites) because the management module contains provisions to simulate the carbon fluxes of forage yield, herbage consumption, animal respiration and methane emissions.
Published: 2018

29. Inventory of methane emissions from livestock in China from 1980 to 2013

Author: Xin Lin, Shushi Peng, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Patrice Dumas, Jiashuo Yu, Shilong Piao, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Département Environnements et Sociétés (Cirad-ES), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)
Subjects: Methane emissions, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Population, 010501 environmental sciences, Body weight, 01 natural sciences, Agricultural science, China, education, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, education.field_of_study, business.industry, L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales, 15. Life on land, Milk production, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Livestock, business, P02 - Pollution
Abstract: Livestock is the largest anthropogenic methane (CH4) source at the global scale. Previous inventories of this source for China were based on the accounting of livestock populations and constant emission factors (EFs) per head. Here, we re-evaluate how livestock CH4 emissions have changed from China over the last three decades, considering increasing population, body weight and milk production per head which cause EF to change with time, and decreasing average life span (ALS) of livestock. Our results show that annual CH4 emissions by livestock have increased from 4.5 to 11.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 over the period 1980–2013. The increasing trend in emissions (0.25 Tg CH4 yr−2) over this period is ∼12% larger than that if using constant EFs and ALS. The increasing livestock population, production per head and decreasing ALS contributed +91%, +28% and −19% to the increase in CH4 emissions from livestock, respectively. This implies that the temporal changes in EF and ALS of livestock cannot be overlooked in inventories, especially in countries like China where livestock production systems are experiencing rapid transformations.
Published: 2018

30. Satellite passive microwaves reveal recent climate-induced carbon losses in African drylands

Author: Jinfeng Chang, Yann Kerr, Wenmin Zhang, Martin Brandt, Torbern Tagesson, Laura Vang Rasmussen, Philippe Ciais, Compton J. Tucker, Lei Fan, Josep Peñuelas, Jérôme Chave, Rasmus Fensholt, Feng Tian, Arnaud Mialon, Aleixandre Verger, Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez, Kjeld Rasmussen, Guy Schurgers, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Amen Al-Yaari, Cheikh Mbow, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management [Copenhagen] (IGN), Faculty of Science [Copenhagen], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro), Evolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-CSIC, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), LAboratoire PLasma et Conversion d'Energie (LAPLACE), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, START International Inc, Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), ANR-11-IDEX-0002,UNITI,Université Fédérale de Toulouse(2011), ANR-10-LABX-0025,CEBA,CEnter of the study of Biodiversity in Amazonia(2010), European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (ISPA), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona [Barcelona] (UAB), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-11-IDEX-0002-02/10-LABX-0041,TULIP,Towards a Unified theory of biotic Interactions: the roLe of environmental(2011), and ANR-10-LABX-25-01/10-LABX-0025,CEBA,CEnter of the study of Biodiversity in Amazonia(2010)
Subjects: Aboveground carbon, Vegetation optical depth, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, 0208 environmental biotechnology, chemistry.chemical_element, 02 engineering and technology, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Carbon Cycle, Deforestation, Forest ecology, Biomass, Spacecraft, Microwaves, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Africa South of the Sahara, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Ecology, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, Land area, 020801 environmental engineering, Environmental sciences, Physical Geography, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Remote Sensing Technology, Environmental science, Satellite, Carbon, Climate-change impacts
Abstract: International audience; The African continent is facing one of the driest periods in the past three decades as well as continued deforestation. These disturbances threaten vegetation carbon (C) stocks and highlight the need for improved capabilities of monitoring large-scale aboveground carbon stock dynamics. Here we use a satellite dataset based on vegetation optical depth derived from low-frequency passive microwaves (L-VOD) to quantify annual aboveground biomass-carbon changes in sub-Saharan Africa between 2010 and 2016. L-VOD is shown not to saturate over densely vegetated areas. The overall net change in drylands (53% of the land area) was −0.05 petagrams of C per year (Pg C yr$^{−1}$) associated with drying trends, and a net change of −0.02 Pg C yr$^{−1}$ was observed in humid areas. These trends reflect a high inter-annual variability with a very dry year in 2015 (net change, −0.69 Pg C) with about half of the gross losses occurring in drylands. This study demonstrates, first, the applicability of L-VOD to monitor the dynamics of carbon loss and gain due to weather variations, and second, the importance of the highly dynamic and vulnerable carbon pool of dryland savannahs for the global carbon balance, despite the relatively low carbon stock per unit area.
Published: 2018

31. Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a-Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets

Author: Wim Thiery, Delphine Deryng, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Guoyong Leng, Yadu Pokhrel, Rene Orth, Simon N. Gosling, Joshua Elliott, Xingcai Liu, Thomas Hickler, Hyungjun Kim, Yusuke Satoh, Nikolay Khabarov, Christian Folberth, Hong Yang, Tian Zhou, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Graham P. Weedon, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Joerg Steinkamp, Yoshihide Wada, Martin Hirschi, Junguo Liu, Lukas Gudmundsson, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Catherine Morfopoulos, Alexandra-Jane Henrot, Christoph Müller, Richard Wartenburger, Tobias Stacke, Erwin Schmid, Kazuya Nishina, Xuhui Wang, Sibyll Schaphoff, Qiuhong Tang, Justin Sheffield, Hannes Müller Schmied, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Chicago, Unité de Modélisation du Climat et des Cycles Biogéochimiques (UMCCB), Université de Liège, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main-Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research - Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Leibniz Association-Leibniz Association, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Southern University of Science and Technology [Shenzhen] (SUSTech), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Princeton], Princeton University, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], European Research Council DROUGHT-HEAT project 617518 Office of Science of the US Department of Energy as part of the Integrated Assessment Research Program US DOE DE-AC05-76RLO1830 DECC GA01101 National Natural Science Foundation of China 41625001 41571022 Southern University of Science and Technology G01296001 Defra Integrated Climate Program - DECC/Defra GA01101, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), and Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering
Subjects: PARAMETERIZATION, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, REANALYSIS DATA, 02 engineering and technology, Forcing (mathematics), 01 natural sciences, ISIMIP2a, Environmental Science(all), Evapotranspiration, ddc:550, Range (statistics), Cluster Analysis, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, WATER, Water cycle, uncertainty, General Environmental Science, Uncertainty, Variance (accounting), Explained variation, GLOBAL TERRESTRIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, Variable (computer science), [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Physical Sciences, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, PROJECT, HYDROLOGICAL MODELS, evapotranspiration, Climate change, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, SOIL-MOISTURE, hydrological extreme events, LAND-SURFACE MODEL, cluster analysis, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, Hydrological extreme events, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Science & Technology, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, 020801 environmental engineering, Earth sciences, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Environmental Sciences, HIGH-RESOLUTION
Abstract: Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and anessential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties thatare impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing arange of independent global monthly land ET estimates with historical model simulations from theglobal water, agriculture, and biomes sectors participating in the second phase of the Inter-SectoralImpact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). Among the independent estimates, we use theEartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset (E2O), two commonly used reanalyses, a pre-compiled ensembleproduct (LandFlux-EVAL), and an updated collection of recently published datasets thatalgorithmically derive ET from observations or observations-based estimates (diagnostic datasets). Acluster analysis is applied in order to identify spatio-temporal differences among all datasets and tothus identify factors that dominate overall uncertainties. The clustering is controlled by several factorsincluding the model choice, the meteorological forcing used to drive the assessed models, the datacategory (models participating in the different sectors of ISIMIP2a, E2O models, diagnostic estimates,reanalysis-based estimates or composite products), the ET scheme, and the number of soil layers inthe models. By using these factors to explain spatial and spatio-temporal variabilities in ET, we findthat themodel choicemostly dominates (24%–40%of variance explained), except for spatio-temporalpatterns of total ET, where the forcing explains the largest fraction of the variance (29%). The mostdominant clusters of datasets are further compared with individual diagnostic and reanalysis-basedestimates to assess their representation of selected heat waves and droughts in the Great Plains,Central Europe and western Russia. Although most of the ET estimates capture these extreme events,the generally large spread among the entire ensemble indicates substantial uncertainties.
Published: 2018

32. Changing the retention properties of catchments and their influence on runoff under climate change

Author: Tao Wang, Yue Li, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Yuting Yang, Dawen Yang, Hui Yang, Shilong Piao, Chris Huntingford, Shushi Peng, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Hydrology, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, Water retention, Hydrology (agriculture), [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Evapotranspiration, medicine, Environmental science, Climate model, Precipitation, medicine.symptom, Interception, Surface runoff, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract: International audience; Many studies on drought consider precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) impacts. However, catchment water retention is a factor affecting the interception of precipitation and slowing down runoff which also plays a critical role in determining the risks of hydrological drought. The Budyko framework links retention to the partitioning of precipitation into runoff or evapotranspiration. Applied worldwide, we demonstrate that retention changes are the dominant contribution to measured runoff changes in 21 of 33 major catchments. Similarly, assessing climate simulations for the historical period suggests that models substantially underestimate observed runoff changes due to unrepresented water management processes. Climate models show that water retention (without direct water management) generally decreases by the end of the 21st century, except in dry central Asia and northwestern China. Such decreases raise runoff, mainly driven by precipitation intensity increases (RCP4.5 scenario) and additionally by CO2-induced stomata closure (RCP8.5). This mitigates runoff deficits (generally from raised PET under warming) by increasing global mean runoff from -2.77 mm yr-1 to +3.81 mm yr-1 (RCP4.5), and -6.98 mm yr-1 to +5.11 mm yr-1 (RCP8.5).
Published: 2018

33. Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies

Author: Ingrid Jacquemin, Thomas Hickler, Kazuya Nishina, Shufen Pan, Ning Zeng, Jinfeng Chang, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Catherine Morfopoulos, Fang Zhao, Richard Betts, Jia Yang, Alexandra-Jane Henrot, Rashid Rafique, Louis François, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Sebastian Ostberg, Guy Munhoven, Jörg Steinkamp, Sibyll Schaphoff, Hanqin Tian, University of Exeter, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Agroforestry, Impact assessment, Biome, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Primary production, Benchmarking, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, Photosynthesis, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Productivity, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract: Simulating vegetation photosynthetic productivity (or gross primary production, GPP) is a critical feature of the biome models used for impact assessments of climate change. We conducted a benchmarking of global GPP simulated by eight biome models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a) with four meteorological forcing datasets (30 simulations), using independent GPP estimates and recent satellite data of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence as a proxy of GPP. The simulated global terrestrial GPP ranged from 98 to 141 Pg C yr−1 (1981–2000 mean); considerable inter-model and inter-data differences were found. Major features of spatial distribution and seasonal change of GPP were captured by each model, showing good agreement with the benchmarking data. All simulations showed incremental trends of annual GPP, seasonal-cycle amplitude, radiation-use efficiency, and water-use efficiency, mainly caused by the CO2 fertilization effect. The incremental slopes were higher than those obtained by remote sensing studies, but comparable with those by recent atmospheric observation. Apparent differences were found in the relationship between GPP and incoming solar radiation, for which forcing data differed considerably. The simulated GPP trends co-varied with a vegetation structural parameter, leaf area index, at model-dependent strengths, implying the importance of constraining canopy properties. In terms of extreme events, GPP anomalies associated with a historical El Niño event and large volcanic eruption were not consistently simulated in the model experiments due to deficiencies in both forcing data and parameterized environmental responsiveness. Although the benchmarking demonstrated the overall advancement of contemporary biome models, further refinements are required, for example, for solar radiation data and vegetation canopy schemes.
Published: 2017

34. Management outweighs climate change on affecting length of rice growing period for early rice and single rice in China during 1991–2012

Author: F. Ruget, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Xiuchen Wu, Hongfang Zhao, Feng Zhou, Nicolas Vuichard, Laurent Li, Xuhui Wang, Shilong Piao, Jinfeng Chang, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Modelling agricultural and hydrological systems in the Mediterranean environment Research Unit, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Avignon Université (AU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, China, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV.SA.AGRO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Agronomy, Climate change, Biology, 01 natural sciences, Crop, Length of growing period, Transplanting, Management practices, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, Phenology, food and beverages, Forestry, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, ORCHIDEE-crop, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, Period (geology), 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, sense organs, Rice, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology, Agronomy and Crop Science, Rice crop, Crop management
Abstract: Erreur sur le prénom de F. Ruget dans la revue. Demande de correction en cours; International audience; Whether crop phenology changes are caused by change in managements or by climate change belongs to the category of problems known as detection-attribution. Three type of rice (early, late and single rice) in China show an average increase in Length of Growing Period (LGP) during 1991–2012: 1.0 ± 4.8 day/decade (±standard deviation across sites) for early rice, 0.2 ± 4.5 day/decade for late rice and 2.0±6.0 day/decade for single rice, based on observations from 141 long-term monitoring stations. Positive LGP trends are widespread, but only significant (P < 0.05) at 25% of early rice, 22% of late rice and 38% of single rice sites. We developed a Bayes-based optimization algorithm, and optimized five parameters controlling phenological development in a process-based crop model (ORCHIDEE-crop) for discriminating effects of managements from those of climate change on rice LGP. The results from the optimized ORCHIDEE-crop model suggest that climate change has an effect on LGP trends dependent on rice types. Climate trends have shortened LGP of early rice (−2.0 ± 5.0 day/decade), lengthened LGP of late rice (1.1 ± 5.4 day/decade) and have little impacts on LGP of single rice (−0.4 ± 5.4 day/decade). ORCHIDEE-crop simulations further show that change in transplanting date caused widespread LGP change only for early rice sites, offsetting 65% of climate change induced LGP shortening. The primary drivers of LGP change are thus different among the three types of rice. Management are predominant driver of LGP change for early and single rice. This study shows that complex regional variations of LGP can be reproduced with an optimized crop model. We further suggest that better documenting observational error and management practices can help reduce large uncertainties existed in attribution of LGP change, and future rice crop modelling in global/regional scales should consider different types of rice and variable transplanting dates in order to better account impacts of management and climate change.
Published: 2017

35. Combining livestock production information in a process based vegetation model to reconstruct the history of grassland management

Author: Natalya Kosykh, Jean-François Soussana, Xianzhou Zhang, Yongfei Bai, Nicolas Viovy, Mario Herrero, Petr Havlik, Joanna Joiner, Nina P. Mironycheva-Tokareva, Jinfeng Chang, Xuhui Wang, Philippe Ciais, Chao Yue, Tao Wang, Anna Peregon, Shilong Piao, Didier Hauglustaine, Shushi Peng, Matteo Campioli, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Ecosystem Services and Management, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Plant and Vegetation Ecology (PLECO), University of Antwerp (UA), Lhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany [Beijing] (IB-CAS), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS)-Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research - Chinese Academy of Sciences, Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Collège de Direction (CODIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry, Siberian Branch Russian Academy of Sciences, European Union 282700, ERC Synergy grant [ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P], European Commission [603542], European Project: 603864,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,HELIX(2013), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), UAR 0233 Collège de Direction, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Direction Collégiale (DCOLL)-Collège de Direction (CODIR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Biome, lcsh:Life, Climate change, data set, Land cover, 010501 environmental sciences, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Grassland, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, lcsh:QH540-549.5, land-cover, global database, Productivity, Biology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, 2. Zero hunger, european grasslands, carbon balance, pasture simulation-model, geography, Biomass (ecology), geography.geographical_feature_category, chlorophyll fluorescence, biomass, Agroforestry, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, Physics, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Primary production, net primary production, climate-change, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, lcsh:Geology, lcsh:QH501-531, Chemistry, Environmental science, lcsh:Ecology, Physical geography
Abstract: Grassland management type (grazed or mown) and intensity (intensive or extensive) play a crucial role in the greenhouse gas balance and surface energy budget of this biome, both at field scale and at large spatial scale. However, global gridded historical information on grassland management intensity is not available. Combining modelled grass-biomass productivity with statistics of the grass-biomass demand by livestock, we reconstruct gridded maps of grassland management intensity from 1901 to 2012. These maps include the minimum area of managed vs. maximum area of unmanaged grasslands and the fraction of mown vs. grazed area at a resolution of 0.5A degrees by 0.5A degrees. The grass-biomass demand is derived from a livestock dataset for 2000, extended to cover the period 1901-2012. The grass-biomass supply (i.e. forage grass from mown grassland and biomass grazed) is simulated by the process-based model ORCHIDEE-GM driven by historical climate change, risingaEuro-CO2 concentration, and changes in nitrogen fertilization. The global area of managed grassland obtained in this study increases from 6.1aEuro-aEuro parts per thousand x aEuro-10(6)aEuro-km(2) in 1901 to 12.3aEuro-aEuro parts per thousand x aEuro-10(6)aEuro-km(2) in 2000, although the expansion pathway varies between different regions. ORCHIDEE-GM also simulated augmentation in global mean productivity and herbage-use efficiency over managed grassland during the 20th century, indicating a general intensification of grassland management at global scale but with regional differences. The gridded grassland management intensity maps are model dependent because they depend on modelled productivity. Thus specific attention was given to the evaluation of modelled productivity against a series of observations from site-level net primary productivity (NPP) measurements to two global satellite products of gross primary productivity (GPP) (MODIS-GPP and SIF data). Generally, ORCHIDEE-GM captures the spatial pattern, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability of grassland productivity at global scale well and thus is appropriate for global applications presented here.
Published: 2016

36. Effect of climate change, CO2 trends, nitrogen addition, and land-cover and management intensity changes on the carbon balance of European grasslands

Author: Xuhui Wang, Petr Havlik, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Ciais, Jean-François Soussana, Mario Herrero, Nicolas Viovy, Benjamin Sultan, Jinfeng Chang, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Grassland Ecosystems Research Group, Agronomy Unit (URAC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)
Subjects: Biogeochemical cycle, Livestock, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Nitrogen, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Biome, Climate change, Carbon sequestration, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Carbon Cycle, Carbon cycle, Soil, Air Pollution, Animals, Environmental Chemistry, Ecosystem, land-cover change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, carbon balance, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, Agriculture, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, European grassland, Carbon Dioxide, Models, Theoretical, 15. Life on land, Grassland, ORCHIDEE-GM, Carbon, Europe, climate change, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Greenhouse gas, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, management intensity, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Cycling
Abstract: International audience; Several lines of evidence point to European managed grassland ecosystems being a sink of carbon. In this study, we apply ORCHIDEE-GM a process-based carbon cycle model that describes specific management practices of pastures and the dynamics of carbon cycling in response to changes in climatic and biogeochemical drivers. The model is used to simulate changes in the carbon balance [i.e., net biome production (NBP)] of European grasslands over 1991–2010 on a 25 km × 25 km grid. The modeled average trend in NBP is 1.8–2.0 g C m−2 yr−2 during the past two decades. Attribution of this trend suggests management intensity as the dominant driver explaining NBP trends in the model (36–43% of the trend due to all drivers). A major change in grassland management intensity has occurred across Europe resulting from reduced livestock numbers. This change has ‘inadvertently’ enhanced soil C sequestration and reduced N2O and CH4 emissions by 1.2–1.5 Gt CO2-equivalent, offsetting more than 7% of greenhouse gas emissions in the whole European agricultural sector during the period 1991–2010. Land-cover change, climate change and rising CO2 also make positive and moderate contributions to the NBP trend (between 24% and 31% of the trend due to all drivers). Changes in nitrogen addition (including fertilization and atmospheric deposition) are found to have only marginal net effect on NBP trends. However, this may not reflect reality because our model has only a very simple parameterization of nitrogen effects on photosynthesis. The sum of NBP trends from each driver is larger than the trend obtained when all drivers are varied together, leaving a residual – nonattributed – term (22–26% of the trend due to all drivers) indicating negative interactions between drivers.
Published: 2016

37. Implications of accounting for management intensity on carbon and nitrogen balances of European grasslands

Author: Stefan Olin, Niklas Boke-Olén, Veiko Lehsten, Jinfeng Chang, Mats Lindeskog, Ullrika Sahlin, and J. H. Blanke
Subjects: Mediterranean climate, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, lcsh:Medicine, Plant Science, 01 natural sciences, Pasture, Grassland, Geographical Locations, Natural Resources, Biomass, lcsh:Science, Data Management, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, Animal Behavior, Agroforestry, Eukaryota, Agriculture, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Plants, Nitrogen Cycle, Dynamic global vegetation model, Terrestrial Environments, Europe, Grazing, Grasslands, Agrochemicals, Research Article, Computer and Information Sciences, Livestock, Nitrogen, Climate Change, Land management, Poaceae, Models, Biological, Ecosystems, Carbon Cycle, Animals, Computer Simulation, Grasses, Leaf area index, Fertilizers, Plant Communities, Ecosystem, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Behavior, geography, business.industry, Plant Ecology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, lcsh:R, Organisms, Biology and Life Sciences, Primary production, Carbon, People and Places, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, lcsh:Q, business, Zoology
Abstract: European managed grasslands are amongst the most productive in the world. Besides temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation, grass production is also highly controlled by applications of nitrogen fertilizers and land management to sustain a high productivity. Since management characteristics of pastures vary greatly across Europe, land-use intensity and their projections are critical input variables in earth system modeling when examining and predicting the effects of increasingly intensified agricultural and livestock systems on the environment. In this study, we aim to improve the representation of pastures in the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. This is done by incorporating daily carbon allocation for grasses as a foundation to further implement daily land management routines and land-use intensity data into the model to discriminate between intensively and extensively used regions. We further compare our new simulations with leaf area index observations, reported regional grassland productivity, and simulations conducted with the vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM. Additionally, we analyze the implications of including pasture fertilization and daily management compared to the standard version of LPJ-GUESS. Our results demonstrate that grassland productivity cannot be adequately captured without including land-use intensity data in form of nitrogen applications. Using this type of information improved spatial patterns of grassland productivity significantly compared to standard LPJ-GUESS. In general, simulations for net primary productivity, net ecosystem carbon balance and nitrogen leaching were considerably increased in the extended version. Finally, the adapted version of LPJ-GUESS, driven with projections of climate and land-use intensity, simulated an increase in potential grassland productivity until 2050 for several agro-climatic regions, most notably for the Mediterranean North, the Mediterranean South, the Atlantic Central and the Atlantic South.
Published: 2018

38. The greenhouse gas balance of European grasslands

Author: Jinfeng Chang, Nicolas Vuichard, Jean-François Soussana, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Benjamin Sultan, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Grassland Ecosystems Research Group, Agronomy Unit (URAC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP), 266018, ANIMALCHANGE AN Integration of Mitigation and Adaptation options for sustainable Livestock production under climate CHANGE, European Project: 603864,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,HELIX(2013), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), UR 0874 Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial, and Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP)-Ecologie des Forêts, Prairies et milieux Aquatiques (EFPA)
Subjects: Greenhouse Effect, Conservation of Natural Resources, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Models, Biological, Sink (geography), Grassland, Carbon Cycle, Flux (metallurgy), Air Pollution, Grazing, ORCHIDEE, Environmental Chemistry, Ecosystem, greenhouse gases balance, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, Agroforestry, grassland management, Primary production, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, European grassland, 15. Life on land, Europe, livestock, Models, Chemical, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Greenhouse gas, Soil water, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Gases, Seasons
Abstract: International audience; The greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of European grasslands (EU-28 plus Norway and Switzerland), including CO2, CH4 and N2O, is estimated using the new process-based biogeochemical model ORCHIDEE-GM over the period 1961–2010. The model includes the following: (1) a mechanistic representation of the spatial distribution of management practice; (2) management intensity, going from intensively to extensively managed; (3) gridded simulation of the carbon balance at ecosystem and farm scale; and (4) gridded simulation of N2O and CH4 emissions by fertilized grassland soils and livestock. The external drivers of the model are changing animal numbers, nitrogen fertilization and deposition, land-use change, and variable CO2 and climate. The carbon balance of European grassland (NBP) is estimated to be a net sink of 15 ± 7 g C m−2 year−1 during 1961–2010, equivalent to a 50-year continental cumulative soil carbon sequestration of 1.0 ± 0.4 Pg C. At the farm scale, which includes both ecosystem CO2 fluxes and CO2 emissions from the digestion of harvested forage, the net C balance is roughly halved, down to a small sink, or nearly neutral flux of 8 g C m−2 year−1. Adding CH4 and N2O emissions to net ecosystem exchange to define the ecosystem-scale GHG balance, we found that grasslands remain a net GHG sink of 19 ± 10 g C-CO2 equiv. m−2 year−1, because the CO2 sink offsets N2O and grazing animal CH4 emissions. However, when considering the farm scale, the GHG balance (NGB) becomes a net GHG source of −50 g C-CO2 equiv. m−2 year−1. ORCHIDEE-GM simulated an increase in European grassland NBP during the last five decades. This enhanced NBP reflects the combination of a positive trend of net primary production due to CO2, climate and nitrogen fertilization and the diminishing requirement for grass forage due to the Europe-wide reduction in livestock numbers.
Published: 2015

39. Global Carbon Budget 2015

Author: Douglas Vandemark, Robert J. Andres, Charles D. Koven, Christian Rödenbeck, Benjamin Poulter, Taro Takahashi, Leticia Barbero, Yukihiro Nojiri, Fiz F. Pérez, Judith Hauck, Jörg Schwinger, S. Nakaoka, Ralph F. Keeling, Etsushi Kato, Gregor Rehder, Pieter P. Tans, Aki Murata, Thanos Gkritzalis, C. Le Quéré, Nathalie Lefèvre, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, R. Moriarty, T. Ono, Laurent Bopp, Tatiana Ilyina, Jinfeng Chang, Thomas A. Boden, Joanna Isobel House, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Roland Séférian, Atul K. Jain, Marianela Fader, Frank J. Millero, S. van Heuven, Philippe Ciais, Are Olsen, Adrienne J. Sutton, Richard A. Houghton, Louise Chini, Robbie M. Andrew, Denis Pierrot, Tobias Steinhoff, David R. Munro, Nicolas Metzl, Richard A. Feely, Peter Landschützer, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Pierre Friedlingstein, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Siv K. Lauvset, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Ute Schuster, Benjamin D. Stocker, Andrew Lenton, Ian Harris, Vassilis Kitidis, Stephen Sitch, Ning Zeng, Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, S. Saito, Benjamin Pfeil, Andy Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, Ivan D. Lima, Karen O'Brien, Almut Arneth, Frédéric Chevallier, G. R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Josep G. Canadell, Natural Environment Research Council (UK), Norwegian Research Council, European Commission, Department of Energy (US), Helmholtz Association, Leverhulme Trust, Department of Energy and Climate Change (UK), European Research Council, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US), Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (UK), Department of Commerce (US), National Science Foundation (US), Ministry of Environment (Japan), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (France), Institut Polaire Français Paul Emile Victor, German Research Foundation, Gobierno de España, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, European Space Agency, Research Council of Norway, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (US), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US), Leerstoel Ridder, Environmental Sciences, Sub Algemeen Math. Inst, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Oceans and Atmosphere Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], University of Exeter, Exeter Climate Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center [Oak Ridge] (CDIAC), U.S. Department of Energy [Washington] (DOE), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), University of Bristol [Bristol], Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California-University of California, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Avignon Université (AU), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Flanders Marine Institute, VLIZ, Climatic Research Unit [Norwich] (CRU), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Plymouth Marine Laboratory, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich] (IBP), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship (CSIRO), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Équipe CO2 (E-CO2), Department of Ocean Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Boulder] (ATOC), University of Colorado [Boulder], Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Météo-France [Paris], Météo France, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Imperial College London, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington [Seattle], Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Centre for Isotope Research [Groningen] (CIO), University of Groningen [Groningen], Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire (UNH), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [College Park] (AOSC), European Project: 603542,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,LUC4C(2013), European Project: 282672,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,EMBRACE(2011), European Project: 264879,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2010,CARBOCHANGE(2011), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Institute of Arctic Alpine Research [University of Colorado Boulder] (INSTAAR), Météo-France, Earth and Climate, and Geology and Geochemistry
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, chemistry.chemical_compound, FOSSIL-FUEL COMBUSTION, CO2 FLUX VARIABILITY, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, lcsh:Environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Geology, Vegetation, LAND-USE CHANGE, COVER CHANGE, Carbon dioxide, Physical Sciences, INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, Meteorology and Air Quality, Life on Land, MIXED-LAYER SCHEME, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 12. Responsible consumption, Carbon cycle, Latitude, Atmospheric Sciences, Atmosphere, Deforestation, Life Science, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Science & Technology, WIMEK, 15. Life on land, Climate Action, lcsh:Geology, Geochemistry, chemistry, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science
Abstract: 48 pages, 9 figures, 10 tables.-- Proyecto Carbochange, Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015)., NERC provided funding to C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, and the GCP through their International Opportunities Fund specifically to support this publication (NE/103002X/1). G. P. Peters and R. M. Andrew were supported by the Norwegian Research Council (236296). J. G. Canadell was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Programme. S. Sitch was supported by EU FP7 for funding through projects LUC4C (GA603542). R. J. Andres was supported by US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER) programmes under US Department of Energy contract DE-AC05- 00OR22725. T. A. Boden was supported by US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER) programmes under US Department of Energy contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.J. I. House was supported by the Leverhulme foundation and the EU FP7 through project LUC4C (GA603542). P. Friedlingstein was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through projects LUC4C (GA603542) and EMBRACE (GA282672). A. Arneth was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through LUC4C (603542), and the Helmholtz foundation and its ATMO programme. D. C. E. Bakker was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (284879), the UK Ocean Acidification Research Programme (NE/H017046/1; funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, the Department for Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs). L. Barbero was supported by NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Program and acknowledges support for this work from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ROSES Carbon Cycle Science under NASA grant 13-CARBON13_2-0080. P. Ciais acknowledges support from the European Research Council through Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 “IMBALANCE-P”. M. Fader was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project LUC4C (GA603542). J. Hauck was supported by the Helmholtz Postdoc Programme (Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association). R. A. Feely and A. J. Sutton were supported by the Climate Observation Division, Climate Program Office, NOAA, US Department of Commerce. A. K. Jain was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF AGS 12-43071) the US Department of Energy, Office of Science and BER programmes (DOE DE-SC0006706) and NASA LCLUC programme (NASA NNX14AD94G). E. Kato was supported by the ERTDF (S-10) from the Ministry of Environment, Japan. K. Klein Goldewijk was supported by the Dutch NWO VENI grant no. 863.14.022. S. K. Lauvset was supported by the project “Monitoring ocean acidification in Norwegian waters” from the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment. V. Kitidis was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (264879). C. Koven was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy under contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231 as part of their Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program. P. Landschützer was supported by GEOCarbon. I. T. van der Lann-Luijkx received financial support from OCW/NWO for ICOS-NL and computing time from NWO (SH-060-13). I. D. Lima was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF AGS-1048827). N. Metzl was supported by Institut National des Sciences de l’Univers (INSU) and Institut Paul Emile Victor (IPEV) for OISO cruises. D. R. Munro was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF PLR-1341647 and NSF AOAS-0944761). J. E. M. S. Nabel was supported by the German Research Foundation’s Emmy Noether Programme (PO1751/1-1) and acknowledges Julia Pongratz and Kim Naudts for their contributions. Y. Nojiri and S. Nakaoka were supported by the Global Environment Research Account for National Institutes (1432) by the Ministry of Environment of Japan. A. Olsen appreciates support from the Norwegian Research Council (SNACS, 229752). F. F. Pérez were supported by BOCATS (CTM2013-41048-P) project co-founded by the Spanish government and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER). B. Pfeil was supported through the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme AtlantOS under grant agreement no. 633211. D. Pierrot was supported by NOAA through the Climate Observation Division of the Climate Program Office. B. Poulter was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through GEOCarbon. G. Rehder was supported by BMBF (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung) through project ICOS, grant no. 01LK1224D. U. Schuster was supported by NERC UKOARP (NE/H017046/1), NERC RAGANRoCC (NE/K002473/1), the European Space Agency (ESA) OceanFlux Evolution project, and EU FP7 CARBOCHANGE (264879). T. Steinhoff was supported by ICOS-D (BMBF FK 01LK1101C) and EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (264879). J. Schwinger was supported by the Research Council of Norway through project EVA (229771). T. Takahashi was supported by grants from NOAA and the Comer Education and Science Foundation. B. Tilbrook was supported by the Australian Department of Environment and the Integrated Marine Observing System. B. D. Stocker was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation and FP7 funding through project EMBRACE (282672). S. van Heuven was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (264879). G. R. van der Werf was supported by the European Research Council (280061). A. Wiltshire was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and EU FP7 Funding through project LUC4C (603542). S. Zaehle was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the Eu ropean Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (QUINCY; grant agreement no. 647204). ISAM (PI: Atul K. Jain) simulations were carried out at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), which is supported by the US DOE under contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. Contributions from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography were supported under DoE grant DE-SC0012167 and by Schmidt Philanthropies. This is NOAA-PMEL contribution number 4400
Published: 2015

40. Declining snow cover may affect spring phenological trend on the Tibetan Plateau

Author: Tao Wang, Shushi Peng, Xin Lin, Jinfeng Chang, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, geography, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, Plateau, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Databases, Factual, Phenology, Climate change, Vegetation, 010501 environmental sciences, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, Models, Biological, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Spring (hydrology), Ecosystem, Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer, Letters, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Snow cover, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Zhang et al. (1) report that the Tibetan Plateau experienced a continuous advancing start of green-up date (SOS) from 1982 to 2011 based on the merged Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS)-based with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) [Systeme Pour l’Observation de la Terre vegetation (SPOT-VGT)]-based SOSs. It challenged the previous contention that plants over the Tibetan Plateau failed to fulfill vegetation chilling due to continuous winter warming (2) and provided the evidence that spring phenology advancement was consistent with observed warming in springs and winters over the last three decades. The results have significant implications for understanding responses of spring phenology to temperature under climate change.
Published: 2013

41. The Global N2O Model Intercomparison Project

Author: Josep G. Canadell, Stefan Gerber, Nicolas Vuichard, Sebastian Lienert, Eri Saikawa, Kerou Zhang, Chaoqun Lu, Changhui Peng, Fortunat Joos, Sönke Zaehle, Robert B. Jackson, Rongting Xu, Almut Arneth, Bowen Zhang, Qiuan Zhu, Jia Yang, Jinfeng Chang, Rona Thompson, Yuanyuan Huang, Shufen Pan, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Hanqin Tian, Wilfried Winiwarter, Guangsheng Chen, Palmira Messina, Stefan Olin, Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Auburn University (AU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Northeast Forestry University (NEFU), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University [Lund], Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (UQTR), Emory University [Atlanta, GA], Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, USC Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California (USC), Northwest A and F University, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Northeast Forestry University, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], and Lund University
Subjects: Estimation, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Biosphere, 15. Life on land, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Ecosystem, Scale (map), Cycling, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and also an ozone-depleting substance that has both natural and anthropogenic sources. Large estimation uncertainty remains on the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of N2O fluxes and the key drivers of N2O production in the terrestrial biosphere. Some terrestrial biosphere models have been evolved to account for nitrogen processes and to show the capability to simulate N2O emissions from land ecosystems at the global scale, but large discrepancies exist among their estimates primarily because of inconsistent input datasets, simulation protocol, and model structure and parameterization schemes. Based on the consistent model input data and simulation protocol, the global N2O Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) was initialized with 10 state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models that include nitrogen (N) cycling. Specific objectives of NMIP are to 1) unravel the major N cycling processes controlling N2O fluxes in each model and identify the uncertainty sources from model structure, input data, and parameters; 2) quantify the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of global and regional N2O fluxes from the preindustrial period (1860) to present and attribute the relative contributions of multiple environmental factors to N2O dynamics; and 3) provide a benchmarking estimate of N2O fluxes through synthesizing the multimodel simulation results and existing estimates from ground-based observations, inventories, and statistical and empirical extrapolations. This study provides detailed descriptions for the NMIP protocol, input data, model structure, and key parameters, along with preliminary simulation results. The global and regional N2O estimation derived from the NMIP is a key component of the global N2O budget synthesis activity jointly led by the Global Carbon Project and the International Nitrogen Initiative.
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