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Current white-light coronagraphs measure polarized brightness (pB) of the solar corona using a single bandpass filter to measure the density of electrons. However, future coronagraphs can be modified to take pB images through four bandpass filters to measure density, temperature and speed of electrons. In this article, we use a spherical three dimensional coronal model of the Bastille Day coronal mass ejection to synthetically measure pB through four bandpass filters along lines of sight originating from two observers located diametrically in front (1 AU, 0, 0) and behind (-1 AU, 0, 0) the plane of the sky on the xy-ecliptic plane. The lines of sight pass through 81 positions on a straight line parallel to the solar north–south z-direction in the yz-plane and this line intersects the ecliptic at (0, $1.25~\mbox{R}_{\odot}$ , 0) from Sun center. The 81 data points are separated in intervals of $0.05~\mbox{R}_{\odot}$ and points extend from (0, $1.25~\mbox{R}_{\odot}$ , - $2.0~\mbox{R}_{\odot}$ ) to (0, $1.25~\mbox{R}_{\odot}$ , $2.0~\mbox{R}_{\odot}$ ). The measured pB ratios are used to measure temperature and speed, then we compare with true temperature and speed in the plane of the sky, and quantify the difference, which is a systematic error associated with using modeled pB ratios, based on a symmetric corona, to compare with measured pB ratios, on an asymmetric corona. This understanding is reached by allowing the coronal model to rotate a full circle in intervals of $1^{\circ}$ and illuminating the lines of sight with both symmetric and asymmetric coronal atmospheres about the plane of the sky.

Two of the geomagnetic storms for the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) challenge [cf. Pulkkinen et al., 2013] occurred after data were first acquired by the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE). We compare Birkeland currents from AMPERE with predictions from four models for the 4-5 April 2010 and 5-6 August 2011 storms. The four models are: the Weimer [2005b] field-aligned current statistical model; the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation; the Open Global Geospace Circulation Model MHD simulation; and the Space Weather Modeling Framework MHD simulation. The MHD simulations were run as described in Pulkkinen et al. [2013] and the results obtained from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). The total radial Birkeland current, ITotal, and the distribution of radial current density, Jr, for all models are compared with AMPERE results. While the total currents are well correlated, the quantitative agreement varies considerably. The Jr distributions reveal discrepancies between the models and observations related to the latitude distribution, morphologies, and lack of nightside current systems in the models. The results motivate enhancing the simulations first by increasing the simulation resolution, and then by examining the relative merits of implementing more sophisticated ionospheric conductance models, including ionospheric outflows or other omitted physical processes. Some aspects of the system, including substorm timing and location, may remain challenging to simulate, implying a continuing need for real-time specification.

Polarized K-coronal brightness (pB) of the solar corona can be measured by taking four successive coronal brightness images through a linear polarizer, by turning it through four successive angles in intervals of $45^{\circ}$ and using a standard formula to measure pB from the total coronal brightness (TB) that contains both the polarized K- and the unpolarized F-coronal brightness. The question is: will the time-dependent, highly dynamic corona illuminate each pixel with the same brightness during the time it takes to take the four successive images? To mitigate this problem we now have the polarization camera, in which, each super-pixel is made up of four sub-pixels, and built in to these four sub-pixels is a polarization mask that contains four linear polarizers orientated at four angles $45^{\circ}$ apart. This allows the measurement of pB to be made in a single exposure. Here, the question is: will the variations of the coronal brightness in the four adjacent sub-pixels in a super-pixel be sufficiently negligible to assume that they observe the same part of the corona? This article looks for answers to these two questions by conducting two synthetic experiments to measure the electron temperature in the plane of the sky on a spherically asymmetric model (SAM) corona by first using a linear polarizer, and then replacing it with a polarization camera and use statistical analyses to determine how well the measured temperature matched the true temperature for the two cases.

Recently Gordeev et al. [2015] suggested a method to test global MHD models against statistical empirical data. They showed that four community-available global MHD models supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) produce a reasonable agreement with reality for those key parameters (the magnetospheric size, magnetic field and pressure) that are directly related to the large-scale equilibria in the outer magnetosphere. Based on the same set of simulation runs, here we investigate how the models reproduce the global loading-unloading cycle. We found that in terms of global magnetic flux transport, three examined CCMC models display systematically different response to idealized 2h north then 2h south IMFBz variation. The LFM model shows a depressed return convection and high loading rate during the growth phase as well as enhanced return convection and high unloading rate during the expansion phase, with the amount of loaded/unloaded magnetotail flux and the growth phase duration being the closest to their observed empirical values during isolated substorms. Two other models exhibit drastically different behavior. In the BATS-R-US model the plasma sheet convection shows a smooth transition to the steady convection regime after the IMF southward turning. In the Open GGCM a weak plasma sheet convection has comparable intensities during both the growth phase and the following slow unloading phase. We also demonstrate potential technical problem in the publicly-available simulations which is related to post-processing interpolation and could affect the accuracy of magnetic field tracing and of other related procedures.

There has long been interest in knowing the shape and location of the Earth's magnetopause and of the standing fast-mode bow shock upstream of the Earth's magnetosphere. This quest for knowledge spans both the research and operations arenas. Pertinent to the latter, nowcasting and near-term forecasting are important for determining the extent to which the magnetosphere is compressed or expanded due to the influence of the solar wind bulk plasma and fields and the coupling to other magnetosphere-ionosphere processes with possible effects on assets. This article provides an update to a previous article on the same topic published 15 years earlier, with focus on studies that have been conducted, the current status of nowcasting and forecasting of geophysical boundaries, and future endeavors.

The degree of linear polarization (DOLP) is an important measure of the fraction of the total K-coronal brightness due to Thomson scattering of photospheric brightness off the coronal electrons that is linearly polarized. However, the corona is also brightened by the F-coronal brightness due to scattering of photospheric brightness off everything else in the corona except the electrons, which remains totally unpolarized at least up to a coronal height of $\approx 5~\mathrm{R}_{ \odot }$ . As a result, to measure the DOLP, the F- and K-coronal brightness need to be separated by taking three consecutive images by turning a linear polarizer through three well-defined angles or with a single image using a polarization camera. In this regard, the theoretically computed DOLP would be a helpful tool to compare with the experimentally measured DOLP on the real corona in order to estimate how well the F-coronal brightness is removed from the total coronal brightness to isolate the K-coronal brightness. This is important because the K-coronal brightness ratios at (410.3 nm/390.0 nm) and (423.3 nm/398.7 nm) can be used to generate maps of electron temperature and speed, respectively, and the individual K-coronal brightness at all four wavelengths can be used independently to generate maps of the electron density in the corona. In this article, for a spherically symmetric model (SSM) corona with assumed temperatures of 1.0 MK and 2.0 MK and radial flow speeds of 0.0 km s−1 and 250.0 km s−1 for the coronal electrons, we have computed the wavelength-dependent DOLP from 370.0 nm to 470.0 nm in intervals of 1.0 nm, and for a spherically asymmetric model (SAM) corona containing a simulation of the Bastille Day coronal mass ejection, streamers, and quiet areas, we have generated maps of DOLP at the four wavelengths 390.0, 398.7, 410.3, and 423.3 nm. Finally, we have used these theoretically computed models of DOLP to compare with the experimentally measured DOLP.

Obtaining reliable measurements of plasma parameters in the Sun’s corona remains an important challenge for solar physics. We previously presented a method for producing maps of electron temperature and speed of the solar corona using K-corona brightness measurements made through four color filters in visible light, which were tested for their accuracies using models of a structured, yet steady corona. In this article we test the same technique using a coronal model of the Bastille Day (14 July 2000) coronal mass ejection, which also contains quiet areas and streamers. We use the coronal electron density, temperature, and flow speed contained in the model to determine two K-coronal brightness ratios at (410.3, 390.0 nm) and (423.3, 398.7 nm) along more than 4000 lines of sight. Now assuming that for real observations, the only information we have for each line of sight are these two K-coronal brightness ratios, we use a spherically symmetric model of the corona that contains no structures to interpret these two ratios for electron temperature and speed. We then compare the interpreted (or measured) values for each line of sight with the true values from the model at the plane of the sky for that same line of sight to determine the magnitude of the errors. We show that the measured values closely match the true values in quiet areas. However, in locations of coronal structures, the measured values are predictably underestimated or overestimated compared to the true values, but can nevertheless be used to determine the positions of the structures with respect to the plane of the sky, in front or behind. Based on our results, we propose that future white-light coronagraphs be equipped to image the corona using four color filters in order to routinely create coronal maps of electron density, temperature, and flow speed.

To address challenges of assessing space weather modeling capabilities, the CommunityCoordinated Modeling Center is leading a newly establishedInternational Forum for Space WeatherModeling Capabilities Assessment. This paper presents preliminary results of validation of modeled foF2 (F2 layer critical frequency) and TEC (total electron content) during the first selected 2013 March storm event (17 March 2013). In this study, we used eight ionospheric models ranging from empirical to physics-based, coupled ionosphere-thermosphere and data assimilation models. The quantities we considered are TEC and foF2 changes and percentage changes compared to quiet time background, and the maximum and minimum percentage changes. In addition, we considered normalized percentage changes of TEC. We compared the modeled quantities with ground-based observations of vertical Global Navigation SatelliteSystem TEC (provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology Haystack Observatory) and foF2 data (provided by Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory) at the 12 locations selected in middle latitudes of the American and European-African longitude sectors. To quantitatively evaluate the models’ performance, we calculated skill scores including correlation coefficient, root-mean square error (RMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum percentage changes (yield), and timing error. Our study indicates that average RMSEs of foF2range from about 1 MHz to 1.5 MHz. The average RMSEs of TEC are between ~5 and ~10 TECU (1 TEC Unit= 1016el/m2). dfoF2[%] RMSEs are between 15% and 25%, which is smaller than RMSE of dTEC[%] ranging from30% to 60%. The performance of the models varies with the location and metrics considered.