1. Long-term transients help explain regime shifts in consumer-renewable resource systems
- Author
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Mara Baudena, Martin O. Reader, Hanneke van ‘t Veen, John M. Anderies, Maarten B. Eppinga, Koen Siteur, and Maria José Santos
- Subjects
0303 health sciences ,education.field_of_study ,Stylized fact ,Resource (biology) ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Natural resource economics ,Population ,15. Life on land ,01 natural sciences ,Term (time) ,Variety (cybernetics) ,03 medical and health sciences ,Intervention (law) ,13. Climate action ,Planetary boundaries ,Economics ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,education ,Productivity ,030304 developmental biology ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,General Environmental Science - Abstract
As planetary boundaries loom, there is an urgent need to develop sustainable equilibriums between societies and the resources they consume, thereby avoiding regime shifts to undesired states. Transient system trajectories to a stable state may differ substantially, posing significant challenges to distinguishing sustainable from unsustainable trajectories. We use stylized models to show how feedbacks between anthropogenic harvest regimes and resource availability drive transient dynamics. We show how substantial time lags may occur between interventions and social-ecological outcomes, and that sudden system collapses need not be linked to recent environmental changes. Historical reconstructions of island state populations show a variety of transient dynamics that closely corresponds to model expectations based on island differences in productivity and harvesting regime. We conclude that vulnerable social-ecological systems may persist when the population:resource ratio remains within a viable range of intermediate (rather than small) values, which implies that averting environmental crises may require counter-intuitive measures. Transient states influence the sustainable or unsustainable trajectories of social-ecological systems and lead to time lags between rapid regime shifts and the change or intervention which caused them, according to theoretical models of island states.
- Published
- 2021