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In dichotomous item response theory (IRT) framework, the asymptotic standard error (ASE) is the most common statistic to evaluate the precision of various ability estimators. Easy-to-use ASE formulas are readily available; however, the accuracy of some of these formulas was recently questioned and new ASE formulas were derived from a general asymptotic theory framework. Furthermore, exact standard errors were suggested to better evaluate the precision of ability estimators, especially with short tests for which the asymptotic framework is invalid. Unfortunately, the accuracy of exact standard errors was assessed so far only in a very limiting setting. The purpose of this article is to perform a global comparison of exact versus (classical and new formulations of) asymptotic standard errors, for a wide range of usual IRT ability estimators, IRT models, and with short tests. Results indicate that exact standard errors globally outperform the ASE versions in terms of reduced bias and root mean square error, while the new ASE formulas are also globally less biased than their classical counterparts. Further discussion about the usefulness and practical computation of exact standard errors are outlined.

International audience; A Gaussian field $X$ defined on a square $S$ of $\mathds R^2$ is considered. We assume that this field is only observed at some points of a regular grid with spacing $\frac{1}{n}$. We are interested in the normalized discretization error $n^2(M - M_n)$, with $M$ the global maximum of $X$ over $S$ and $M_n$ the maximum of $X$ over the observation grid. The density of the location of the maximum is given using Rice formulas and its regularity is studied. Joint densities with the value of the field and the value of the second derivative are also given.Then, a kind of Slepian model is used to study the field behavior around the unique point where the maximum is attained, called $t^*$. We show that the normalized discretization error can be bounded by a quantity that converges in distribution to a uniform variable. The set where this uniform variable lies principally depends on the second derivative of the field at $t^*$. The bound is a function of this quantity which is approached by finite differences in practice. The bound is applied both on simulated and real data. Real data are used in positioning by satellite systems quality assessment.

We give expansions for the distribution function, density function and moments of the sample minimum when sampling from a distribution on 0 , x 2 that is nearly analytic at zero. Similar results are given for the sample maximum when sampling from a distribution on x 1 , x 2 that is nearly analytic at x 2 . When these distributions are analytic, the expansions are in inverse powers of the sample size n . If not, they require a double expansion.

The last time Earth's climate experienced geologically rapid global warming was associated with the last glacial termination, when atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose from 180 ppmv during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26-19 kaBP) to similar to 260 ppmv by the early Holocene (12-8 kaBP). About one quarter of that difference is thought to be due to a stronger biological pump during glacial times, driven by increased aeolian dust deposition and hence greater iron availability in ocean surface waters. However, dust supply did not change uniformly or in synchrony over the deglacial transition and what is not known is the relative importance of different oceanic regions and how this may have changed in time. Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we quantify the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to regional changes in iron supply, and test six different global dust reconstructions in order to explore uncertainty in past dust changes. We confirm the Southern Ocean (>34 degrees S) as the region most sensitive to iron fertilization, with the Atlantic and Pacific sectors accounting for about 41 +/- 23% and 16 +/- 10%, respectively, of the total CO2 reduction from global iron fertilization. However, the North Pacific contributes 28 +/- 3% to the total implying an important role for Northern Hemisphere processes in driving deglacial CO2 rise. In addition, our analysis reveals an unexpected regional-temporal disparity, and while Southern Hemisphere iron fertilization influences atmospheric CO2 relatively constantly throughout the termination the impact of the Northern Hemisphere only occurs during the later stages of the termination. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.

In the framework of nonlinear elasticity, we consider the model energy F ( u ) = ∫ Ω [ | D u ( x ) | p + h ( det ⁡ D u ( x ) ) ] d x , where u : Ω ⊂ R n → R n with det ⁡ D u > 0 and h : ( 0 , + ∞ ) → [ 0 , + ∞ ) is convex; moreover h ( t ) blows up when t → 0 + . We study the problem: fix the mapping u with finite energy F ( u ) and find a mapping v with the same boundary values, with det ⁡ D v > 0 and energy F ( v ) not higher than F ( u ) , such that every component v β of v enjoys a kind of maximum and minimum principle. Due to the constraint det ⁡ D v > 0 , a truncation argument does not work. On the contrary, the constraint det ⁡ D v > 0 makes the problem easy when p ≥ n since it is known that every component is weakly monotone, so we can take v = u . In the present work we address the case 2 ≤ p n and we give a positive answer if the blow up of h ( t ) is of logarithmic type.

In this article we study imaginary Gaussian multiplicative chaos-namely a family of random generalized functions which can formally be written as e(iX(x)), where X is a log-correlated real-valued Gaussian field on R-d, that is, it has a logarithmic singularity on the diagonal of its covariance. We study basic analytic properties of these random generalized functions, such as what spaces of distributions these objects live in, along with their basic stochastic properties, such as moment and tail estimates., After this, we discuss connections between imaginary multiplicative chaos and the critical planar Ising model, namely that the scaling limit of the spin field of the critical planar XOR-Ising model can be expressed in terms of the cosine of the Gaussian free field, that is, the real part of an imaginary multiplicative chaos distribution. Moreover, if one adds a magnetic perturbation to the XOR-Ising model, then the scaling limit of the spin field can be expressed in terms of the cosine of the sine-Gordon field, which can also be viewed as the real part of an imaginary multiplicative chaos distribution., The first sections of the article have been written in the style of a review, and we hope that the text will also serve as an introduction to imaginary chaos for an uninitiated reader.

Background and Aims Our aim was to understand the environmental conditions of the emergence and radiation of early angiosperms. Such a question has long remained controversial because various approaches applied in the past have drawn conflicting images of early angiosperm ecology. Methods We provided a new perspective on the question by using support vector machines to model the environmental niche of 51 species belonging to ten genera of extant lineages that diverged early during angiosperm evolution (basal angiosperms). Then, we analysed the resulting pattern of niche overlap and determined whether this pattern deviates from what would be expected on the basis of a null model or whether it might mirror a legacy of a common primitive niche based on a phylogenetic reconstruction. Key Results The niche of three-quarters of the species and all genera converged towards tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs). The latitudinal pattern of basal angiosperm richness indeed culminated in the tropics, and the elevational pattern revealed a humpback curve peaking between 2000 m and 3500 m when accounting for the effect of area. At first glance, this diversity pattern does not significantly differ from null predictions. However, we revealed a tendency for the basal-most taxa to occur in TMCFs so that phylogenetic reconstructions indicated that the niche of the common ancestor of the sampled basal angiosperms had a probability of 0.85–0.93 to overlap with TMCFs. Conclusions Our new approach indicates that the environmental convergence of extant basal angiosperms towards TMCFs would reflect a legacy of an ancestral niche from which the least basal taxa would have diverged following a random pattern under geometric constraints.

We study the properties and geoeffectiveness of solar wind high-speed streams (HSSs) emanating from coronal holes and associated with stream interaction regions (SIRs). This paper presents a statistical study of 588 SIR/HSS events with solar wind speed at 1 AU exceeding 500 km/s during 1995-2017, encompassing the decline of solar cycle 22 to the decline of cycle 24. Events are detected using measurements of the solar wind speed and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Events misidentified as or interacting with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are removed by comparison with an existing ICME list. Using this SIR/HSS event catalog (list given in the supplementary material), a superposed epoch analysis of key solar wind parameters is carried out. It is found that the number of SIR/HSSs peaks during the late declining phase of solar cycle (SC) 23, as does their velocity, but that their geoeffectiveness in terms of the AE and SYM-H indices is low. This can be explained by the anomalously low values of magnetic field during the extended solar minimum. Within SC23 and SC24, the highest geoeffectiveness of SIR/HSSs takes place during the early declining phases. Geoeffectiveness of SIR/HSSs continues to be up to 40% lower during SC24 than SC23, which can be explained by the solar wind properties., Comment: 28 pages, 13 figures, 1 table; Supporting information available from the published version in JGR Space Physics

The nature of Holocene Asian summer monsoon (ASM) evolution documented by diverse natural archives remains controversial, with a contentious issue being whether or not a strong Asian summer monsoon prevailed during the early Holocene. Here we present sequences of multiple proxies measured in sediment cores from Genggahai Lake in the NE Tibetan Plateau (NETP). The results suggest that a higher lake level and relatively lower terrestrial vegetation cover occurred synchronously during the early Holocene (11.3–8.6 kyr cal BP), compared with the period from 8.6 to 6.9 kyr cal BP. This finding clearly reflects the existence of different hydroclimatic conditions between the lake and its catchment due to diverse driving mechanisms. The early Holocene high stand of the lake, as demonstrated by the stratigraphic variability of the remains of aquatic biota, may have responded to the strengthened ASM and increased monsoonal precipitation; the relatively low vegetation cover in the marginal region of the Asian monsoon during the early Holocene, and the coeval widespread active sand dune mobility in both the NE Tibetan Plateau and NE China, most likely resulted from a low level of effective moisture due to high evaporation, and hence they cannot be interpreted as evidence of a weak ASM. Our results potentially reconcile the current divergent interpretations of various proxy climate records from the region. Our findings suggest that the ASM evolution was characterized by a consistent pattern across the monsoonal regions, as indicated by the oxygen isotope record of Chinese speleothems.

Nettilling Lake (Baffin Island, Nunavut) is currently the largest lake in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Despite its enormous size, this freshwater system remains little studied until the present-day. Existing records from southern Baffin Island indicate that in the early postglacial" period, the region was submerged by the postglacial Tyrell Sea due to isostatic depression previously exerted by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. However, these records are temporally and spatially discontinuous, relying on qualitative extrapolation. This paper presents the first quantitative reconstruction of the postglacial environmental succession of the Nettilling Lake basin based on a 8300 yr-long high resolution sedimentary record. Our multi-proxy investigation of the glacio-isostatic uplift and subsequent changes in paleosalinity and sediment sources is based on analyses of sediment fabric, elemental geochemistry (mu-XRF), diatom assemblage composition, as well as on the first diatom-based oxygen isotope record from the eastern Canadian Arctic. Results indicate that the Nettilling Lake basin experienced a relatively rapid and uniform marine invasion in the early Holocene, followed by progressive freshening until about 6000 yr BP when limnological conditions similar to those of today were established. Our findings present evidence for deglacial processes in the Foxe Basin that were initiated at least 400yrs earlier than previously thought. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.orgilicensesiby-nc-nd/4.0/).

Metric spaces provide a framework for analysis and have several very useful properties. Many of these properties follow in part from the triangle inequality. However, there are several applications in which the triangle inequality does not hold but in which we may still like to perform analysis. This paper investigates what happens if the triangle inequality is removed all together, leaving what is called a distance space, and also what happens if the triangle inequality is replaced with a much more general two parameter relation, which is herein called the "power triangle inequality". The power triangle inequality represents an uncountably large class of inequalities, and includes the triangle inequality, relaxed triangle inequality, and inframetric inequality as special cases. The power triangle inequality is defined in terms of a function that is herein called the "power triangle function". The power triangle function is itself a power mean, and as such is continuous and monotone with respect to its exponential parameter, and also includes the operations of maximum, minimum, mean square, arithmetic mean, geometric mean, and harmonic mean as special cases., This submission has been typeset with the assistance of XeLaTeX

The definition of a Detour&ndash, Harary index is &omega, H ( G ) = 1 2 &sum, u , v &isin, V ( G ) 1 l ( u , v | G ) , where G is a simple and connected graph, and l ( u , v | G ) is equal to the length of the longest path between vertices u and v. In this paper, we obtained the maximum Detour&ndash, Harary index about unicyclic graphs, bicyclic graphs, and cacti, respectively.

Planar magnetic structures (PMSs) are periods in the solar wind during which interplanetary magnetic field vectors are nearly parallel to a single plane. One of the specific regions where PMSs have been reported are coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven sheaths. We use here an automated method to identify PMSs in 95 CME sheath regions observed in-situ by the Wind and ACE spacecraft between 1997 and 2015. The occurrence and location of the PMSs are related to various shock, sheath and CME properties. We find that PMSs are ubiquitous in CME sheaths; 85% of the studied sheath regions had PMSs with the mean duration of 6.0 hours. In about one-third of the cases the magnetic field vectors followed a single PMS plane that covered a significant part (at least 67%) of the sheath region. Our analysis gives strong support for two suggested PMS formation mechanisms: the amplification and alignment of solar wind discontinuities near the CME-driven shock and the draping of the magnetic field lines around the CME ejecta. For example, we found that the shock and PMS plane normals generally coincided for the events where the PMSs occurred near the shock (68% of the PMS plane normals near the shock were separated by less than 20{\deg} from the shock normal), while deviations were clearly larger when PMSs occurred close to the ejecta leading edge. In addition, PMSs near the shock were generally associated with lower upstream plasma beta than the cases where PMSs occurred near the leading edge of the CME. We also demonstrate that the planar parts of the sheath contain a higher amount of strongly southward magnetic field than the non-planar parts, suggesting that planar sheaths are more likely to drive magnetospheric activity., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in Annales Geophysicae

Let { X n , n ≥ 1 } $\{X_{n},n\geq1\}$ be an independent and identically distributed random sequence with common distribution F obeying the lognormal distribution. In this paper, we obtain the exact uniform convergence rate of the distribution of maxima to its extreme value limit under power normalization.

Archaeological evidence from the submerged North Sea landscape has established the rich diversity of Pleistocene and Early Holocene ecosystems and their importance to hunter-gatherer subsistence strategies. Comparatively little of this evidence, however, dates to the Late Glacial, the period when Northern Europe was repopulated by colonising foragers. A human parietal bone and a decorated bovid metatarsus recently recovered from the floor of the North Sea have been dated to this crucial transitional period. They are set against the background of significant climatic and environmental changes and a major technological and sociocultural transformation. These discoveries also reaffirm the importance of continental shelves as archaeological archives.

Let (Formula presented.) be a multivariate normal random vector. We derive explicit expressions for the cumulative distribution function, probability density function and the moments of (Formula presented.). Each expression involves single infinite sums of known special functions. Computational issues like accuracy, convergence, time and simulations are investigated.

The contributions of urban surface expansion to regional warming over subregions of Shanghai and Shanghai as a whole using different methods to calculate the daily mean surface temperature (SAT), including the averages of four daily time-records (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC; T4), eight daily time-records (0000, 0300, 0600, 0900, 1200, 1500, 1800, and 2100 UTC; T8), and the averages of the SAT maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin), Txn, were compared based on simulated results using nested numerical intergrations with the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model, where only the satellite-retrieved urban surface distributions differed between two numerical experiments. The contributions from urban-related warming expressed similar intensities when using T8 and Txn, while the smallest values occurred when using T4 over different subregions of Shanghai (with the exception of areas that were defined as urban for both time periods (U2U)) and Shanghai as a whole. Similar values for the changing trends could be detected over different subregions when no urban surface expansion (EX1) was detected for both T4 and Txn. The corresponding values increased under urban surface expansion (EX2) and varied over different subregions, revealing much stronger intensities over urban-surface expansion areas; the weakest intensities occurred over U2U areas. The increasing trends for EX2 and relative contributions when using T4 were smaller than those when using Txn, with the exception of those over U2U areas, which could be explained by the changing trends in Tmax and Tmin due to urban surface expansion, especially during intense urban expansion periods.

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial–interglacial changes in biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies – that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate – from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was in the range of 1.0–1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

International audience; It is difficult to address all of the direct environmental impacts of fisheries using conventional methods of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). A methodological framework was developed that calculates regionalised characterisation factors for biomass uptake by fishing activities to assess impacts of biotic-resource depletion at both species and ecosystem levels. These two levels were studied to include effects of catch on the collapse of a particular stock of a given species and on total biomass availability in oceans. Characterisation factors were calculated for 127 fish species and 88 marine provinces. The compatibility of this method with other frameworks is discussed, as well as the methodological limitations. The method was applied to two contrasting examples from fisheries (Northern Atlantic albacore tuna and Northern Argentine anchovy). The impacts of one tonne of tuna on biotic natural resources were 4 and 14 times as high as those of anchovy at the ecosystem and species levels, respectively. The application demonstrates that the method is relevant, as it addresses a topic of global interest and fills a gap in LCA impact assessment to contrast impacts of removals of different fish species in terms of biotic natural resource depletion.

The tropical region is an area of maximum humidity and serves as the major humidity source of the globe. Among other phenomena, it is governed by the so-called Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is commonly defined by converging low-level winds or enhanced precipitation. Given its importance as a humidity source, we investigate the humidity fields in the tropics in different reanalysis data sets, deduce the climatology and variability and assess the relationship to the ITCZ. Therefore, a new analysis method of the specific humidity distribution is introduced which allows detecting the location of the humidity maximum, the strength and the meridional extent. The results show that the humidity maximum in boreal summer is strongly shifted northward over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area and the Gulf of Mexico. These shifts go along with a peak in the strength in both areas; however, the extent shrinks over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area, whereas it is wider over the Gulf of Mexico. In winter, such connections between location, strength and extent are not found. Still, a peak in strength is again identified over the Gulf of Mexico in boreal winter. The variability of the three characteristics is dominated by inter-annual signals in both seasons. The results using ERA-interim data suggest a positive trend in the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic region from 1979 to 2010, showing an increased northward shift in the recent years. Although the trend is only weakly confirmed by the results using MERRA reanalysis data, it is in phase with a trend in hurricane activity–a possible hint of the importance of the new method on hurricanes. Furthermore, the position of the maximum humidity coincides with one of the ITCZ in most areas. One exception is the western and central Pacific, where the area is dominated by the double ITCZ in boreal winter. Nevertheless, the new method enables us to gain more insight into the humidity distribution, its variability and the relationship to ITCZ characteristics. Keywords: lower tropospheric humidity, ITCZ characteristics, humidity maximum shift, humidity and precipitation coincidence, reanalysis uncertainties (Published: 18 July 2013) Citation: Tellus A 2013, 65 , 20413, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.20413

Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) is a warm salty water formed in one out of four main zones of dense water formation in the Mediterranean Sea. LIW spreads as a density current and first appears on a ϴ-S diagram as a sharp peak that then smoothens out, often leading to the so-called “scorpion-tail” image with a ϴ (S) maximum above (below) the expected core. Both maxima have always been considered, somewhat fuzzily (even by us), as LIW characteristics without having ever been analysed theoretically. We question neither the “scorpion-tail” image nor the “core-method” nor qualitative analyses of either LIW or other waters characterized by similar extrema. But data from the Strait of Gibraltar demonstrate that characterizing and/or delimiting LIW by these maxima gives LIW a much greater importance than it actually merits so all quantitative analyses of LIW musts be reconsidered. Calculations made as simple as possible to simulate a warm salty layer of intermediate water (IW) mixing with waters lying above and below suggest that these maxima i) can be understood only when all three waters are considered together, ii) can evolve in different ways, iii) generally tend to move from the core of the IW layer outwards, and hence iv) can neither characterize nor delimit the IW in any way. Actual simulations with more sophisticated parameterizations are obviously needed. In addition, we suggest that what has to date been called LIW in the western basin in fact represents all intermediate waters formed in all zones of dense water formation in the eastern basin, i.e. not only Levantine waters but also, in particular, Aegean/Cretan waters. To provide a logical counterpart to WIW (Western Intermediate Water), we therefore suggest that, from the Channel of Sicily downstream, LIW should be renamed Eastern Intermediate Water (EIW). El Agua Levantina Intermedia (LIW) es una masa de agua caliente y salada que se forma en el Mediterráneo Oriental. Se esparce como una corriente de densidad y aparece en un diagrama ϴ-S como un pico pronunciado que se va suavizando, produciendo a menudo una imagen de “cola de escorpión” con un máximo de ϴ (S) por encima (por debajo) del nivel esperado de su núcleo. Ambos máximos se han considerado siempre, de forma algo difusa, como características definidoras de LIW sin haber sido analizados nunca teóricamente. No cuestionamos aquí ni la imagen de “cola de escorpión” ni el “método del núcleo” ni los análisis cualitativos de LIW ni de otras masas de agua caracterizadas por extremos similares. Pero datos obtenidos en el Estrecho de Gibraltar demuestran que caracterizar y/o limitar LIW por estos máximos otorga a esta masa de agua una importancia mucho mayor que la que tiene en realidad, con lo cual todos los análisis cuantitativos de LIW hechos hasta ahora deben ser reconsiderados. Cálculos hechos de la forma más simple posible para simular una capa de agua intermedia (IW) caliente y salada mezclándose con las aguas que tiene por encima y por debajo sugieren que estos máximos i) sólo pueden entenderse cuando se consideran las tres aguas conjuntamente, ii) pueden evolucionar de formas distintas, iii) generalmente tienden a desplazarse desde el núcleo de la capa de IW hacia afuera, y en consecuencia iv) no pueden caracterizar ni delimitar a la propia IW de ninguna manera. Obviamente estas conclusiones hay que confirmarlas con simulaciones completas que usen parametrizaciones más sofisticadas. Además sugerimos que lo que hasta ahora se ha llamado LIW en la cuenca occidental, en realidad representa al conjunto de las aguas intermedias formadas en todas las zonas de formación de agua densa de la cuenca oriental, es decir no sólo en la Levantina sino también, y en particular, en la Egea/Cretense. Para tener un equivalente de la WIW (Agua Intermedia Occidental), sugerimos que a partir del Canal de Sicilia, el agua intermedia procedente de la cuenca oriental sea llamada EIW (Agua Intermedia Oriental) en lugar de LIW.

We introduce logarithmic generalized Maxwell distribution motivated by Vodă (Math. Rep. 11:171-179, 2009), which is an extension of the generalized Maxwell distribution. Some interesting properties of this distribution are studied and the asymptotic distribution of the partial maximum of an i.i.d. sequence from the logarithmic generalized Maxwell distribution is gained. The expansion of the limit distribution from the normalized maxima is established under the optimal norming constants, which shows the rate of convergence of the distribution for normalized maximum to the extreme limit.

The coherence of a random matrix, which is defined to be the largest magnitude of the Pearson correlation coefficients between the columns of the random matrix, is an important quantity for a wide range of applications including high-dimensional statistics and signal processing. Inspired by these applications, this paper studies the limiting laws of the coherence of n×p random matrices for a full range of the dimension p with a special focus on the ultra high-dimensional setting. Assuming the columns of the random matrix are independent random vectors with a common spherical distribution, we give a complete characterization of the behavior of the limiting distributions of the coherence. More specifically, the limiting distributions of the coherence are derived separately for three regimes: 1nlogp→0, 1nlogp→β∈(0,∞), and 1nlogp→∞. The results show that the limiting behavior of the coherence differs significantly in different regimes and exhibits interesting phase transition phenomena as the dimension p grows as a function of n. Applications to statistics and compressed sensing in the ultra high-dimensional setting are also discussed.

A 10 m long peat core from the Kanaka Crater (20 degrees 25' S, 57 degrees 31' E), located at 560 m elevation in Mauritius, was analyzed for microfossils. Eight radiocarbon ages show the pollen record reflects environmental and climatic change of the last ca. 38 cal ka BP. The record shows that the island was continuously covered by forest with Erica heath (Philippia) in the uplands. Cyperaceous reedswamp with Pandanus trees was abundant in the coastal lowlands as well as locally in the waterlogged crater. The record shows changes in climatic humidity (wet from 38.0 to 22.7 cal ka BP, drier from 22.7 to 10.6 cal ka BP, and wetter again from 10.6 cal ka BP to recent) as the main response to climate change. A high turnover in montane forest species is evidenced at 22.7 cal ka BP and at the start of the Holocene. The limited altitudinal ranges in the mountains of Mauritius (maximum altitude 828 m), and changing humidity being more important than changing temperature, suggests that in response to climate change a reassortment in taxonomic composition of montane forests might be equally important as displacement of forest types to new altitudinal intervals. We found weak impact of the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and data suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole is a more important driver for climatic change in the southwest Indian Ocean. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

International audience; Invasive species are known to influence the structure and function of invaded ecological communities, and preventive measures appear to be the most efficient means of controlling these effects. However, management of biological invasions requires use of adequate tools to understand and predict invasion patterns in recently introduced areas. The present study: (1) estimates the potential geographic distribution and ecological requirements of the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile Mayr), one of the most conspicuous invasive species throughout the world, in the Iberian Peninsula using ecological niche modeling, and (2) provides new insights into the process of selection of consensual areas among predictions from several modeling methodologies. Ecological niche models were developed using 5 modeling techniques: generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM), generalized boosted models (GBM), Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP), and Maximum Entropy (Maxent). Models for the eastern and western portions of the Iberian Peninsula were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data to investigate the potential for ecological niche differences between the invading populations. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches, and the utility of ensemble predictions in identifying areas of uncertainty regarding the species' invasive potential. More generally, our models predict coastal areas and major river corridors as highly suitable for Argentine ants, and indicate that western and eastern Iberian Peninsula populations occupy similar environmental conditions.

We prove that if $\omega$ is uniformly distributed on $[0,1]$, then as $T\to\infty$, $t\mapsto \zeta(i\omega T+it+1/2)$ converges to a non-trivial random generalized function, which in turn is identified as a product of a very well behaved random smooth function and a random generalized function known as a complex Gaussian multiplicative chaos distribution. This demonstrates a novel rigorous connection between number theory and the theory of multiplicative chaos -- the latter is known to be connected to many other areas of mathematics. We also investigate the statistical behavior of the zeta function on the mesoscopic scale. We prove that if we let $\delta_T$ approach zero slowly enough as $T\to\infty$, then $t\mapsto \zeta(1/2+i\delta_T t+i\omega T)$ is asymptotically a product of a divergent scalar quantity suggested by Selberg's central limit theorem and a strictly Gaussian multiplicative chaos. We also prove a similar result for the characteristic polynomial of a Haar distributed random unitary matrix, where the scalar quantity is slightly different but the multiplicative chaos part is identical. This essentially says that up to scalar multiples, the zeta function and the characteristic polynomial of a Haar distributed random unitary matrix have an identical distribution on the mesoscopic scale., Comment: Supersedes arXiv:1604.08378. Version 2 contains a limit theorem describing the mesoscopic behavior of the characteristic polynomial of random unitary matrices

We study the exact distribution of linear combinations of order statistics of arbitrary (absolutely continuous) dependent random variables. In particular, we examine the case where the random variables have a joint elliptically contoured distribution and the case where the random variables are exchangeable. We investigate also the particular L-statistics that simply yield a set of order statistics, and study their joint distribution. We present the application of our results to genetic selection problems, design of cellular phone receivers, and visual acuity. We give illustrative examples based on the multivariate normal and multivariate Student t distributions.

Using Rice's method to obtain the distribution of the maximum of Gaussian random fields we give the distribution of the length of the projection of a Gaussian variable onto any convex or non-convex spherical cone.

Magnetic clouds (MCs) are large-scale magnetic flux ropes ejected from the Sun into the interplanetary space. They play a central role in solar–terrestrial relations as they can efficiently drive magnetic activity in the near-Earth environment. Their impact on the Earth's magnetosphere is often attributed to the presence of southward magnetic fields inside the MC, as observed in the upstream solar wind. However, when they arrive in the vicinity of the Earth, MCs first encounter the bow shock, which is expected to modify their properties, including their magnetic field strength and direction. If these changes are significant, they can in turn affect the interaction of the MC with the magnetosphere. In this paper, we use data from the Cluster and Geotail spacecraft inside the magnetosheath and from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) upstream of the Earth's environment to investigate the impact of the bow shock's crossing on the magnetic structure of MCs. Through four example MCs, we show that the evolution of the MC's structure from the solar wind to the magnetosheath differs largely from one event to another. The smooth rotation of the MC can either be preserved inside the magnetosheath, be modified, i.e. the magnetic field still rotates slowly but at different angles, or even disappear. The alteration of the magnetic field orientation across the bow shock can vary with time during the MC's passage and with the location inside the magnetosheath. We examine the conditions encountered at the bow shock from direct observations, when Cluster or Geotail cross it, or indirectly by applying a magnetosheath model. We obtain a good agreement between the observed and modelled magnetic field direction and shock configuration, which varies from quasi-perpendicular to quasi-parallel in our study. We find that the variations in the angle between the magnetic fields in the solar wind and in the magnetosheath are anti-correlated with the variations in the shock obliquity. When the shock is in a quasi-parallel regime, the magnetic field direction varies significantly from the solar wind to the magnetosheath. In such cases, the magnetic field reaching the magnetopause cannot be approximated by the upstream magnetic field. Therefore, it is important to take into account the conditions at the bow shock when estimating the impact of an MC with the Earth's environment because these conditions are crucial in determining the magnetosheath magnetic field, which then interacts with the magnetosphere.

We discuss tail behaviors, subexponentiality, and the extreme value distribution of logarithmic skew-normal random variables. With optimal normalized constants, the asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the normalized maximum of logarithmic skew-normal random variables is derived. We show that the convergence rate of the distribution of the normalized maximum to the Gumbel extreme value distribution is proportional to 1/(log n)1/2.

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Over a longer timescale, Holocene palaeolimnological reconstruction of variability in water levels of the Aral Sea since 11,700 BP indicates a long history of alternating phases of regression and transgression, which have been attributed variously to climate, tectonic and anthropogenic forcing. The hydrological history of the Aral Sea has been investigated by application of a variety of scientific approaches, including archaeology, palaeolimnological palaeoclimate reconstruction, geophysics, sedimentology, and more recently, space science. Many issues concerning lake level variability over the Holocene and more recent timescales, and the processes that drive the changes, are still a matter for active debate. Our aim in this article is to review the current debates regarding key issues surrounding the causes and magnitude of Aral Sea level variability on a variety of timescales from months to thousands of years. Many researchers have shown that the main driving force of Aral Sea regressions and transgressions is climate change, while other authors have argued that anthropogenic forcing is the main cause of Aral Sea water level variations over the Holocene. Particular emphasis is made on contributions from satellite remote sensing data in order to improve our understanding of the influence of groundwater on the current hydrological water budget of the Aral Sea since 2005. Over this period of time, water balance computation has been performed and has shown that the underground water inflow to the Aral Sea is close to zero with an uncertainty of 3 km(3)/year. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Limit distributions of maxima of dependent Gaussian sequence are different according to the convergence rate of their correlations. For three different conditions on convergence rate of the correlations, in this paper, we establish the Piterbarg theorem for maxima of stationary Gaussian sequences.

The relationship of magnetic clouds (MCs) to interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) is still an open issue in space research. The view that all ICMEs would originate as magnetic flux ropes has received increasing attention, although near the orbit of the Earth only about one-third of ICMEs show clear MC signatures and often the MC occupies only a portion of the more extended region showing ICME signatures. In this work we analyze 79 events between 1996 and 2009 reported in existing ICME/MC catalogs (Wind magnetic cloud list and the Richardson and Cane ICME list) using near-Earth observations by ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) and Wind. We perform a systematic comparison of cases where ICME and MC signatures coincided and where ICME signatures extended significantly beyond the MC boundaries. We find clear differences in the characteristics of these two event types. In particular, the events where ICME signatures continued more than 6 h past the MC rear boundary had 2.7 times larger speed difference between the ICME's leading edge and the preceding solar wind, 1.4 times higher magnetic fields, 2.1 times larger widths and they experienced three times more often strong expansion than the events for which the rear boundaries coincided. The events with significant mismatch in MC and ICME boundary times were also embedded in a faster solar wind and the majority of them were observed close to the solar maximum. Our analysis shows that the sheath, the MC and the regions of ICME-related plasma in front and behind the MC have different magnetic field, plasma and charge state characteristics, thus suggesting that these regions separate already close to the Sun. Our study shows that the geometrical effect (the encounter through the CME leg and/or far from the flux rope center) does not contribute much to the observed mismatch in the MC and ICME boundary times.

During the Last Glacial Maximum, the pattern of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation was different from today. A combination of sediment chemistry and a scavenging model suggests that the glacial circulation was shallower and at least as vigorous as today. The strength and geometry of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is tightly coupled to climate on glacial–interglacial and millennial timescales1, but has proved difficult to reconstruct, particularly for the Last Glacial Maximum2. Today, the return flow from the northern North Atlantic to lower latitudes associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation reaches down to approximately 4,000 m. In contrast, during the Last Glacial Maximum this return flow is thought to have occurred primarily at shallower depths. Measurements of sedimentary 231Pa/230Th have been used to reconstruct the strength of circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean3,4, but the effects of biogenic silica on 231Pa/230Th-based estimates remain controversial5. Here we use measurements of 231Pa/230Th ratios and biogenic silica in Holocene-aged Atlantic sediments and simulations with a two-dimensional scavenging model to demonstrate that the geometry and strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are the primary controls of 231Pa/230Th ratios in modern Atlantic sediments. For the glacial maximum, a simulation of Atlantic overturning with a shallow, but vigorous circulation and bulk water transport at around 2,000 m depth best matched observed glacial Atlantic 231Pa/230Th values. We estimate that the transport of intermediate water during the Last Glacial Maximum was at least as strong as deep water transport today.

We present an open-access dataset of grape harvest dates (GHD) series that has been compiled from international, French and Spanish literature and from unpublished documentary sources from public organizations and from wine-growers. As of June 2011, this GHD dataset comprises 380 series mainly from France (93% of the data) as well as series from Switzerland, Italy, Spain and Luxemburg. The series have variable length (from 1 to 479 data, mean length of 45 data) and contain gaps of variable sizes (mean ratio of observations/series length of 0.74). The longest and most complete ones are from Burgundy, Switzerland, Southern Rhône valley, Jura and Ile-de-France. The most ancient harvest date of the dataset is in 1354 in Burgundy. The GHD series were grouped into 27 regions according to their location, to geomorphological and geological criteria, and to past and present grape varieties. The GHD regional composite series (GHD-RCS) were calculated and compared pairwise to assess their reliability assuming that series close to one another are highly correlated. Most of the pairwise correlations are significant (p-value < 0.001) and strong (mean pairwise correlation coefficient of 0.58). As expected, the correlations tend to be higher when the vineyards are closer. The highest correlation (R = 0.91) is obtained between the High Loire Valley and the Ile-de-France GHD-RCS. The strong dependence of the vine cycle on temperature and, therefore, the strong link between the harvest dates and the temperature of the growing season was also used to test the quality of the GHD series. The strongest correlations are obtained between the GHD-RCS and the temperature series of the nearest weather stations. Moreover, the GHD-RCS/temperature correlation maps show spatial patterns similar to temperature correlation maps. The stability of the correlations over time is explored. The most striking feature is their generalised deterioration at the late 19th-early 20th century. The possible effects on GHD of the phylloxera crisis, which took place at this time, are discussed. The median of all the standardized GHD-RCS was calculated. The distribution of the extreme years of this general series is not homogenous. Extremely late years all occur during a two-century long time window from the early 17th to the early 19th century, while extremely early years are frequent during the 16th and since the mid-19th century.*** Article disponible : http://www.clim-past.net/8/1403/2012/cp-8-1403-2012.html (consulté le 05/09/2012).

We studied the application of statistical reconstruction algorithms, namely maximum likelihood and least squares methods, to the problem of event reconstruction in a dual phase liquid xenon detector. An iterative method was developed for in-situ reconstruction of the PMT light response functions from calibration data taken with an uncollimated gamma-ray source. Using the techniques described, the performance of the ZEPLIN-III dark matter detector was studied for 122 keV gamma-rays. For the inner part of the detector (R, 8 pages, 7 figures, in the Conference Record of IEEE NSS 2011, accepted for publication in IEEE Trans. on Nuc. Sci

International audience; The aim of this work is to evaluate the effect of variations of greenhouse gas concentrations, orbital parameters, sea-surface conditions, vegetation and dust deposition on the extent of East Siberian mountain glaciations during the late Quaternary. An atmosphere-only general circulation model is used in a series of 16 sensitivity tests at high spatial resolution over the region of interest to systematically evaluate the relative importance of these different forcing parameters. No attempt was made to reproduce in detail the history of late Quaternary mountain glaciations in East Siberia, because, given (a) the temporal and spatial scarcity of available evidence of mountain glaciations in this region and (b) the large uncertainties concerning the boundary conditions to be prescribed in this model, such an exercise must necessarily remain incomplete and partially inconclusive. The results of this study suggest that moisture delivery from the Atlantic is an important factor determining mountain glacier mass balance in Eastern Siberia and is very sensitive to the geometry of the West Eurasian ice sheet. This means that variable moisture blocking by the West Eurasian ice sheet during the Weichselian is the most important single factor explaining the opposite history of glacier and ice sheet extent in West and East Eurasia during the Weichselian. This work confirms earlier results showing that the large 140 kyr BP West Eurasian ice sheet caused regional-scale cooling extending towards Eastern Eurasia. Nevertheless, the simulated response of the regional summer temperature (and thus glacier extent because of the strong dependency of glacier mass balance of summer melt rates) is to a very large extent directly determined by insolation. For the Early Weichselian, this leads to a clear maximum of local glacier extent at 70 kyr BP, which is in line with the variations of top-of-the-atmosphere insolation on orbital time scales, but to some degree at odds with geological evidence which suggests larger glacier extent at 115 and 90 kyr BP than at 70 kyr BP. Through snow feedbacks, the effects of changes in the prescribed vegetation distribution and dust deposition rate are also substantial. In summary, it appears that the broad features of late Quaternary glaciation history in Eastern Eurasia can be understood in terms of known forcings.

International audience; In recent years several papers have been devoted to stability and smoothing properties in maximum-norm of finite element discretizations of parabolic problems. Using the theory of analytic semigroups it has been possible to rephrase such properties as bounds for the resolvent of the associated discrete elliptic operator. In all these cases the triangulations of the spatial domain has been assumed to be quasiuniform. In the present paper we show a resolvent estimate, in one and two space dimensions, under weaker conditions on the triangulations than quasiuniformity. In the two-dimensional case, the bound for the resolvent contains a logarithmic factor.

We obtain explicit expressions for the distribution of the maximum of particular two-parameter random fields related to the one-parameter Wiener and Slepian processes. The latter expression provides a lower bound to the probability that the maximum exceeds a level for the standard two-parameter Slepian field.