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1AbstractIndividuals differ in many ways. Most produce few offspring; a handful produce many. Some die early; others live to old age. It is tempting to attribute these differences in out-comes to differences in individual traits, and thus in the demographic rates experienced. However, there is more to individual variation than meets the eye of the biologist. Even among individuals sharing identical traits, life history outcomes will vary due to individual stochasticity, i.e., to chance. Quantifying the contributions of heterogeneity and chance is essential to understanding natural variability. Inter-individual differences vary across environmental conditions. Heterogeneity and stochasticity depend on environmental conditions. We show that favorable conditions increase the contributions of individual stochasticity, and reduce the contributions of heterogeneity, to variance in demographic outcomes in a seabird population. The opposite is true under poor conditions. This result has important consequence for understanding the ecology and evolution of life history strategies.

Lachryphagous males of Phortica variegata (Fallén, 1823) are gaining increasing attention in Europe, as they act as vectors of the nematode Thelazia callipaeda Railliet & Henry, 1910, causal agent of thelaziosis, an emergent zoonotic disease. Currently, there are no effective control strategies against the vector, and surveillance and monitoring rely on time-consuming and nonselective sampling methods. Our aim was to improve the knowledge about the population dynamics and the chemical ecology of the species. A total of 5,726 P. variegata flies (96.4% males and 3.6% females, mostly gravid) were collected in field experiments during June–September of 2020 in an oak forest in northern Spain. Our results indicate that 1) by means of sweep netting a significantly higher number of captures were found both around the collector´s body and in the air than at ground level; 2) a positive relationship was detected between the abundance of Phortica flies and temperature, with two significant peaks of abundance at 24 and 33°C; 3) the blend of red wine and cider vinegar was the most attractive bait; 4) yellow traps captured fewer flies compared to black and transparent traps; and 5) a significant reduction toward vinegar and wine was detected in presence of the phenolic monoterpenoid carvacrol. In addition, all the males (n = 690) analyzed by both molecular detection and dissection resulted negative for the presence of T. callipaeda larvae. Overall, these findings provide a better understanding of the vector in terms of monitoring and management strategies., Special thanks are given to the manager of the Izki Golf Club for providing the funding to complete part of the study. M.F. is currently funded by European Union Horizon 2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (844285; ‘EpiEcoMod’). We also thank the anonymous reviewers for their many insightful comments and suggestions which helped us to significantly improve the manuscript. This study is part of a work awarded in 2021 with the "III Premio Nacional Felix Pérez y Pérez" of the Illustrious Official College of Veterinarians of Burgos, Spain.

Granivorous rodents have been traditionally regarded as antagonistic seed predators. Agoutis (Dasyprocta spp.), however, have also been recognized as mutualistic dispersers of plants because of their role as scatter-hoarders of seeds, especially for large-seeded species. A closer look shows that such definitions are too simplistic for these Neotropical animals because agoutis can influence plant communities not only through seed dispersal of large seeds but also through predation of small seeds and seedlings, evidencing their dual role. Herein, we summarize the literature on plant–agouti interactions, decompose agouti seed dispersal into its quantitative and qualitative components, and discuss how environmental factors and plant traits determine whether these interactions result in mutualisms or antagonisms. We also look at the role of agoutis in a community context, assessing their effectiveness as substitutes for extinct megafaunal frugivores and comparing their ecological functions to those of other extant dispersers of large seeds. We also discuss how our conclusions can be extended to the single other genus in the Dasyproctidae family (Myoprocta). Finally, we examine agoutis’ contribution to carbon stocks and summarize current conservation threats and efforts. We recorded 164 interactions between agoutis and plants, which were widespread across the plant phylogeny, confirming that agoutis are generalist frugivores. Seed mass was a main factor determining seed hoarding probability of plant species and agoutis were found to disperse larger seeds than other large-bodied frugivores. Agoutis positively contributed to carbon storage by preying upon seeds of plants with lower carbon biomass and by dispersing species with higher biomass. This synthesis of plant–agouti interactions shows that ecological services provided by agoutis to plant populations and communities go beyond seed dispersal and predation, and we identify still unanswered questions. We hope to emphasise the importance of agoutis in Neotropical forests.

1.Aircraft collisions with birds span the entire history of human aviation, including fatal collisions during some of the first powered human flights. Much effort has been expended to reduce such collisions, but increased knowledge about bird movements and species occurrence could dramatically improve decision support and proactive measures to reduce them. Migratory movements of birds pose a unique, often overlooked, threat to aviation that is particularly difficult for individual airports to monitor and predict the occurrence of birds vary extensively in space and time at the local scales of airport responses. 2. We use two publicly available datasets, radar data from the US NEXRAD network characterizing migration movements and eBird data collected by citizen scientists to map bird movements and species composition with low human effort expenditures but high temporal and spatial resolution relative to other large-scale bird survey methods. As a test case, we compare results from weather radar distributions and eBird species composition with detailed bird strike records from three major New York airports. 3. We show that weather radar-based estimates of migration intensity can accurately predict the probability of bird strikes, with 80% of the variation in bird strikes across the year explained by the average amount of migratory movements captured on weather radar. We also show that eBird-based estimates of species occurrence can, using species’ body mass and flocking propensity, accurately predict when most damaging strikes occur.4. Synthesis and applications. By better understanding when and where different bird species occur, airports across the world can predict seasonal periods of collision risks with greater temporal and spatial resolution; such predictions include potential to predict when the most severe and damaging strikes may occur. Our results highlight the power of federating datasets with bird movement and distribution data for developing better and more taxonomically and ecologically tuned models of likelihood of strikes occurring and severity of strikes.

Sensors, such as accelerometers, in tracking devices allow for detailed bio-logging to understand animal behaviour, even in remote places where direct observation is difficult. To study breeding in birds remotely, one needs to understand how to recognise a breeding event from tracking data, and ideally validate this by direct observation. We tagged 49 adult female pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) with transmitter neckbands in Finland in spring of 2018 and 2019, and in Svalbard in summer 2018, and validated inferences from tracking by field observations of nesting sites and family status in 2018–2020 (54 spring–summer tracks). We estimated nesting locations by taking the median coordinates of GPS-fixes at which the goose was motionless (overall dynamic body acceleration, ODBA n = 6). The start of nesting was defined as the first day on which the goose spent > 75% of time within 50 m of the nest, because nest site attendances steeply increased within one day to above this threshold. Nesting duration (number of consecutive days with > 75% nest site attendance) ranged between 3 and 44 days (n = 28), but was 30–34 days in confirmed successful nests (n = 9). The prolonged nesting of 39–44 days (n = 3) suggested incubation on unhatchable egg(s). Nest losses before hatching time occurred mostly in day 3–10 and 23–29 of nesting, periods with an increased frequency of nest site recesses. As alternative method, allowing for non-simultaneous GPS and accelerometer data, we show that nesting days were classified with 98.6% success by two general characteristics of breeding: low body motion (daily median ODBA) and low geographic mobility (daily SD of latitude). Median coordinates on nesting days approached real nest sites closely (within 0.8–3.6 m, n = 6). When considering only geographic mobility (allowing for GPS data only) nesting locations were similarly accurate, but some short nesting attempts were undetected and non-breeding tracks misclassified. We show that nesting attempts, as short as 3 days, and nesting success can be detected remotely with good precision using GPS-tracking and accelerometry. Our method may be generalised to other (precocial) bird species with similar incubation behaviour.

Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-25T11:12:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2021-05-01 Aim: Global changes will redistribute biodiversity, reshaping ecological interactions and ecosystem processes. The decoupling in the distribution of plants and their mutualistic seed dispersers, for instance, may have overlooked eco-evolutionary effects. How animal-dispersed plants will respond to changes in the distribution of their seed dispersers remains largely an open question. Here, we forecast the consequences of climate change and frugivory interactions for the spatial distribution and seed size evolution of a Neotropical palm species. Location: Atlantic forests of South America. Time period: Present day, end of 21st century. Major taxa studied: Thirty-two species of frugivorous birds, and a palm (Euterpe edulis). Methods: Future patterns of animal–plant co-occurrence were derived from ecological niche models, climate forecasts, projections of future forest loss, and seed dispersal simulations. We further explored the evolutionary effect of the spatial reorganization of interactions by modelling palm seed sizes as a function of changes in the distribution of frugivore traits. Results: Our models indicate that future climate change and deforestation may reduce the palm’s suitable distribution by 20%–50%. However, our simulations suggest that 66% of all remaining future suitable distribution (76,200 km2) would still be inaccessible to the palm without the active dispersal of seeds by frugivores. In addition, novel frugivore communities are projected to have smaller mean body mass and gape size (−23% and −10%, respectively), due to the loss of large frugivores, which may translate into a 6%–17% reduction of seed sizes across the palm’s remaining distribution. Main conclusions: Our projections indicate that frugivore seed dispersal may be critical to allow occupancy of future habitat by animal-dispersed plants. However, loss of large frugivores may affect trait selection regimes, creating hotspots of plant evolution towards smaller seeds. We argue that such complex dynamics emerging from species-specific responses to global change may reshape the distribution and evolution of several interacting partners worldwide. Departmento de Biologia Animal Instituto de Biologia Universidade Estadual de Campinas – UNICAMP Campinas Laboratório de Estrutura e Dinâmica da Diversidade (LEDDiv) Instituto de Biologia Universidade Estadual de Campinas – UNICAMP Campinas Department of Theoretical and Computational Ecology Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED) University of Amsterdam (UvA) Departamento de Biodiversidade Instituto de Biociências Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Department of Biology University of Miami, 231 Cox Science Center Department of Geosciences and Geography University of Helsinki P.O. Box 64 Departamento de Biodiversidade Instituto de Biociências Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)

As environmental conditions fluctuate across years, seasonal migrants must determine where and when to move without comprehensive knowledge of conditions beyond their current location. Animals can address this challenge by following cues in their local environment to vary behaviour in response to current conditions, or by moving based on learned or inherited experience of past conditions resulting in fixed behaviour across years.It is often claimed that long‐distance migrants are more fixed in their migratory behaviour because as distance between breeding and wintering areas increases, reliability of cues to predict distant and future conditions decreases. While supported by some population‐level studies, the influence of migration distance on behavioural variation is seldom examined on an individual level.Lesser black‐backed gulls Larus fuscus are generalist seabirds that use a diversity of migration strategies. Using high‐resolution multi‐year GPS tracking data from 82 individuals from eight colonies in Western Europe, we quantified inter‐ and intra‐individual variation in non‐breeding distributions, winter site fidelity, migration routes and timing of migration, with the objectives of determining how much variation lesser black‐backed gulls have in their migratory behaviour and examining whether variation changes with migration distance.We found that intra‐individual variation was significantly lower than variation between individuals for non‐breeding distributions, winter site fidelity, migration routes and timing of migration, resulting in consistent individual strategies for all behaviours examined. Yet, intra‐individual variation ranged widely among individuals (e.g. winter site overlap: 0–0.91 out of 1; migration timing: 0–192 days), and importantly, individual differences in variation were not related to migration distance.The apparent preference for maintaining a consistent strategy, present in even the shortest distance migrants, suggests that familiarity may be more advantageous than exactly tracking current environmental conditions. Yet, variation in behaviour across years was observed in many individuals and could be substantial. This suggests that individuals, irrespective of migration distance, have the capacity to adjust to current conditions within the broad confines of their individual strategies, and occasionally, even change their strategy., This study uses multi‐year high resolution GPS tracks of lesser black‐backed gulls to quantify variation in migration behaviour at the individual‐level and along broad range migration distances to demonstrate that long‐distance migrants are no more fixed in their migratory behaviours than short distance migrants, contrasting with findings from population‐level studies.

Individual variation in disturbance vulnerability (i.e. the likelihood that disturbance negatively affects an individual's fitness) can affect how disturbance impacts animal populations, as even at low disturbance levels some individuals could be severely affected and die. Individual variation in vulnerability can arise due to different responses to disturbance. We propose a new hypothesis that even when individuals respond similarly to disturbance, time-limited individuals are more at risk that their condition deteriorates since they have limited ability to extend their foraging time to compensate for disturbance. We investigate this ‘time-limitation hypothesis' both empirically and mathematically by studying how individuals that differ in their average foraging time (presumably due to differences in foraging efficiency) are affected by disturbance. We used tracking data of 22 wintering Eurasian oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus to compare time budgets between disturbed and undisturbed tidal periods. In three tidal periods with severe disturbance by transport airplanes, more than a third of the variation in additional flight time and foraging time loss was explained by individual differences. Inefficient individuals that foraged longer in undisturbed tidal periods experienced higher costs in disturbed tidal periods, since they lost more foraging time. We next used an analytical energy balance model to study how time-limited individuals differed in their maximum disturbance thresholds. Both our theoretical model and empirical study suggest that inefficient individuals in a time-limited environment may be unable to increase their foraging time to compensate for the effects of disturbance. Consequently, the magnitude of individual variation in time budgets strongly determines what proportion of the population is at risk that their condition deteriorates due to disturbance. Our hypothesis implies that, when assessing disturbance effects on a population, it is not only important to consider individual variation in disturbance responses, but also variation in time budgets that determine the consequences of disturbance.

Migratory species are particularly vulnerable to climate change because habitat throughout their entire migration cycle must be suitable for the species to persist. For migratory species in rivers, predicting climate change impacts is especially difficult because there is a lack of spatially continuous and seasonally varying stream temperature data, habitat conditions can vary for an individual throughout its life cycle, and vulnerability can vary by life stage and season. To predict thermal impacts on migratory riverine populations, we first expanded a spatial stream network model to predict mean monthly temperature for 465,775 river km in the western U.S., and then applied simple yet plausible future stream temperature change scenarios. We then joined stream temperature predictions to 44,396 spatial observations and life-stage-specific phenology (timing) for 26 ecotypes (i.e., geographically distinct population groups expressing one of the four distinct seasonal migration patterns) of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a phenotypically diverse anadromous salmonid that is ecologically and economically important but declining throughout its range. Thermal stress, assessed for each life stage and ecotype based on federal criteria, was influenced by migration timing rather than latitude, elevation, or migration distance such that sympatric ecotypes often showed differential thermal exposure. Early-migration phenotypes were especially vulnerable due to prolonged residency in inland streams during the summer. We evaluated the thermal suitability of 31,699 stream km which are currently blocked by dams to explore reintroduction above dams as an option to mitigate the negative effects of our warmer stream temperature scenarios. Our results showed that negative impacts of stream temperature warming can be offset for almost all ecotypes if formerly occupied habitat above dams is made available. Our approach of combining spatial distribution and phenology data with spatially explicit and temporally explicit temperature predictions enables researchers to examine thermal exposure of migrating populations that use seasonally varying habitats.

PurposeLow read rates are a general problem in library inventories. The purpose of this study is to examine the factors that contribute to the success of library inventory by means of a radio-frequency identification (RFID) inventory taker. The factors investigated were tag position, tag orientation, book thickness, tag density (related to thickness of a sequence of books) and position on the shelf.Design/methodology/approachA total of 210 books were placed in eight random permutations on three fixed book shelves. For each configuration, the RFID tags were read forty times. The resulting data were analysed by means of a generalized linear model, relating the combined contribution of tag position, tag orientation, book thickness and position on the bookshelf to the read rate.FindingsThe tags positioned directly next to the spine were always read, but those near the opening of the book (far from the spine and inventory reader) were not always read. Considering only books with tags near the opening, tag orientation and position on the shelf appeared not to be related to the read rate, while book thickness, thickness over three books and spine tag density appeared to have a small positive contribution to the read rate.Practical implicationsLow read rates during a library inventory can be prevented by placing the tags near the book spine – the other book specific factors (listed in the previous paragraph) are of little influence. When not scanned during a first sweep, repeated scanning can increase the read rate with 0.15.Originality/valueThis paper is one of the first to analyse the influence of tag location and book specific factors on the read rate of RFID tags in library books. The experimental approach sets an example for future work.

High nitrogen (N) deposition levels, currently present in many industrial and agricultural regions of the world, can strongly affect the functioning of forest ecosystems. In a pine forest with strong N leaching, located in the Netherlands, we studied the long-term fate of a year-long NH4+ deposition cohort labeled with 15N. A high ambient and a low N deposition treatment had been established at the site by means of a roof and sprinklers. Resampling the N pools 19 years after labeling and 11 years after the last sampling, we found similar 15N deltas in needles, twigs and the LF1 organic soil layer of each treatment, indicating intensive N cycling among these pools. In the last 11 years, label recovery decreased in these labile pools, while recovery remained constant in wood and increased in bark. Together these aboveground vegetation pools retained less than 3% of the labeled N. In the organic layers, label recovery after 19 years decreased to 23% in both treatments, while in the mineral soil it increased from 4% to 13% (high N) and from 3% to 29% (low N treatment). Within the mineral soil of the high N treatment the labeled N was mainly found in fine roots, while in the low N treatment most N was incorporated in the two soil density fractions, shifting to the high density fraction with depth. This suggests a low capacity of the mineral soil at high N deposition to incorporate N. After the labeled N had been lost substantially in previous years, especially in the first, its presence remained constant in the last 11 years at 38% (high N) and 54% (low N treatment). Apparently, even in this strongly N leaching ecosystem, N once incorporated, was retained well and did not affect the input-output fluxes of the system.

Summary Human pressure mapping is important for understanding humanity's role in shaping Earth's patterns and processes. Our ability to map this influence has evolved, thanks to powerful computing, Earth-observing satellites, and new bottom-up census and crowd-sourced data. Here, we provide the latest temporally inter-comparable maps of the terrestrial human footprint and assessment of change in human pressure at global, biome, and ecoregional scales. In 2013, 42% of terrestrial Earth could be considered relatively free of direct anthropogenic disturbance, and 25% could be classed as “wilderness” (the least degraded end of the human footprint spectrum). Between 2000 and 2013, 1.9 million km2—an area the size of Mexico—of land relatively free of human disturbance became highly modified. The majority of this occurred within tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannah, and shrubland ecosystems, but the rainforests of Southeast Asia also underwent rapid modification. Our results show that humanity's footprint is eroding Earth's last intact ecosystems, and greater efforts are urgently needed to retain them.

Land free of direct anthropogenic disturbance is considered essential for achieving biodiversity conservation outcomes but is rapidly eroding. In response, many nations are increasing their protected area (PA) estates, but little consideration is given to the context of the surrounding landscape. This is despite the fact that structural connectivity between PAs is critical in a changing climate and mandated by international conservation targets. Using a high-resolution assessment of human pressure, we show that while ~40% of the terrestrial planet is intact, only 9.7% of Earth’s terrestrial protected network can be considered structurally connected. On average, 11% of each country or territory’s PA estate can be considered connected. As the global community commits to bolder action on abating biodiversity loss, placement of future PAs will be critical, as will an increased focus on landscape-scale habitat retention and restoration efforts to ensure those important areas set aside for conservation outcomes will remain (or become) connected., The effectiveness of protected areas depends not only on whether they are intact, but also on whether they are mutually connected. Here the authors examine the structural connectivity of terrestrial protected areas globally, finding that less than 10% of the protected network can be considered connected.

Although metamorphosis is widespread in the animal kingdom, several species have evolved life‐cycle modifications to avoid complete metamorphosis. Some species, for example, many salamanders and newts, have deleted the adult stage via a process called paedomorphosis. Others, for example, some frog species and marine invertebrates, no longer have a distinct larval stage and reach maturation via direct development. Here we study which ecological conditions can lead to the loss of metamorphosis via the evolution of direct development. To do so, we use size‐structured consumer‐resource models in conjunction with the adaptive‐dynamics approach. In case the larval habitat deteriorates, individuals will produce larger offspring and in concert accelerate metamorphosis. Although this leads to the evolutionary transition from metamorphosis to direct development when the adult habitat is highly favorable, the population will go extinct in case the adult habitat does not provide sufficient food to escape metamorphosis. With a phylogenetic approach we furthermore show that among amphibians the transition of metamorphosis to direct development is indeed, in line with model predictions, conditional on and preceded by the evolution of larger egg sizes.

Significance Maternal effect senescence, the decline in offspring quality with increasing maternal age, is common in animals despite its negative impact on fitness. To understand how maternal effect senescence might evolve, we built matrix population models to calculate selection gradients on survival and fertility as functions of maternal age. We estimated the model’s parameters with data from an aquatic invertebrate. The strength of selection eventually declines with age and maternal age, implying that maternal effect senescence could be favored by selection and evolve in the same way as senescence. Our framework can be applied to investigate maternal effect senescence in organisms with diverse life histories and unifies the demographic approaches to age-related and maternal effect senescence., Maternal effect senescence—a decline in offspring survival or fertility with maternal age—has been demonstrated in many taxa, including humans. Despite decades of phenotypic studies, questions remain about how maternal effect senescence impacts evolutionary fitness. To understand the influence of maternal effect senescence on population dynamics, fitness, and selection, we developed matrix population models in which individuals are jointly classified by age and maternal age. We fit these models to data from individual-based culture experiments on the aquatic invertebrate, Brachionus manjavacas (Rotifera). By comparing models with and without maternal effects, we found that maternal effect senescence significantly reduces fitness for B. manjavacas and that this decrease arises primarily through reduced fertility, particularly at maternal ages corresponding to peak reproductive output. We also used the models to estimate selection gradients, which measure the strength of selection, in both high growth rate (laboratory) and two simulated low growth rate environments. In all environments, selection gradients on survival and fertility decrease with increasing age. They also decrease with increasing maternal age for late maternal ages, implying that maternal effect senescence can evolve through the same process as in Hamilton’s theory of the evolution of age-related senescence. The models we developed are widely applicable to evaluate the fitness consequences of maternal effect senescence across species with diverse aging and fertility schedule phenotypes.

Understanding how ecological interactions have shaped the evolutionary dynamics of species traits remains a challenge in evolutionary ecology. Combining trait evolution models and phylogenies, we analysed the evolution of characters associated with seed dispersal (fruit size and colour) and herbivory (spines) in Neotropical palms to infer the role of these opposing animal–plant interactions in driving evolutionary patterns. We found that the evolution of fruit colour and fruit size was associated in Neotropical palms, supporting the adaptive interpretation of seed-dispersal syndromes and highlighting the role of frugivores in shaping plant evolution. Furthermore, we revealed a positive association between fruit size and the presence of spines on palm leaves, bracteas and stems. We hypothesize that interactions between palms and large-bodied frugivores/herbivores may explain the evolutionary relationship between fruit size and spines. Large-bodied frugivores, such as extinct megafauna, besides consuming the fruits and dispersing large seeds, may also have consumed the leaves or damaged the plants, thus simultaneously favouring the evolution of large fruits and defensive structures. Our findings show how current trait patterns can be understood as the result of the interplay between antagonistic and mutualistic interactions that have happened throughout the evolutionary history of a clade.

The muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus) is an invasive species in Europe. The extensive waterways of the Netherlands provide ideal habitat for muskrats, and a large population established itself after arrival in 1941. A control program was put into effect immediately because muskrat burrowing can compromise the integrity of dikes and, hence, poses a significant public safety risk. The current (2015) annual catch of approximately 89,000 individuals is equivalent to approximately 0.30 muskrats/km of waterway, well above the national objective in spite of decades of effort. The control program is expensive (€35 M annually) and contested by animal rights groups. These factors created the need for a careful evaluation of the full range of control possibilities, from ‘no control’ to ‘extermination.’ As part of this, we experimentally evaluated the validity of a previously published correlation (based on historical data) between catch and effort. We raised or lowered removal effort (2013–2016) in a stratified random sample of 117 5-km × 5-km ‘atlas squares’ from the national grid. We found that catch-per-unit effort (CPUE) decreased after effort was increased, and rose after effort was decreased, by amounts slightly greater than expected based on the correlational data, though confidence intervals enclose zero. As anticipated, CPUE varied consistently and strongly between seasons. The biggest (and unanticipated) effects were those of the catch in the preceding 3 years (‘history’), and surrounding area (‘neighborhood’). Our experiment confirms estimates of intensity of control required to lower muskrat populations. These results will help with more effective allocation of control effort, and better-informed evaluation of the economic costs of various control options.

Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy is fundamental for halting anthropogenic climate change. However, renewable energy facilities can be land‐use intensive and impact conservation areas, and little attention has been given to whether the aggregated effect of energy transitions poses a substantial threat to global biodiversity. Here, we assess the extent of current and likely future renewable energy infrastructure associated with onshore wind, hydropower and solar photovoltaic generation, within three important conservation areas: protected areas (PAs), Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) and Earth's remaining wilderness. We identified 2,206 fully operational renewable energy facilities within the boundaries of these conservation areas, with another 922 facilities under development. Combined, these facilities span and are degrading 886 PAs, 749 KBAs and 40 distinct wilderness areas. Two trends are particularly concerning. First, while the majority of historical overlap occurs in Western Europe, the renewable electricity facilities under development increasingly overlap with conservation areas in Southeast Asia, a globally important region for biodiversity. Second, this next wave of renewable energy infrastructure represents a ~30% increase in the number of PAs and KBAs impacted and could increase the number of compromised wilderness areas by ~60%. If the world continues to rapidly transition towards renewable energy these areas will face increasing pressure to allow infrastructure expansion. Coordinated planning of renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation is essential to avoid conflicts that compromise their respective objectives.

Many animal species across different taxa change their habitat during their development. An ontogenetic habitat shift enables the development of early vulnerable‐to‐predation stages in a safe “nursery” habitat with reduced predation mortality, whereas less vulnerable stages can exploit a more risky, rich feeding habitat. Therefore, the timing of the habitat shift is crucial for individual fitness. We investigate the effect that size selectivity in mortality in the rich feeding habitat has on the optimal body size at which to shift between habitats using a population model that incorporates density dependence. We show that when mortality risk is more size dependent, it is optimal to switch to the risky habitat at a smaller rather than larger body size, despite that individuals can avoid mortality by staying longer in the nursery habitat and growing to safety in size. When size selectivity in mortality is high, large reproducing individuals are abundant and produce numerous offspring that strongly compete in the nursery habitat. A smaller body size at habitat shift is therefore favored because strong competition reduces growth potential. Our results reveal the interdependence among population structure, density dependence, and life history traits, and highlight the need for integrating ecological feedbacks in the study of life history evolution.

Introductory Regime shifts have been documented in a variety of natural and social systems. These abrupt transitions produce dramatic shifts in the composition and functioning of social-ecological systems. Existing theory on ecosystem resilience has only considered regime shifts to be caused by changes in external conditions beyond a tipping point and therefore lacks an evolutionary perspective. In this study we show how a change in external conditions has little ecological effect and does not push the system beyond a tipping point. The change therefore does not cause an immediate regime shift, but instead triggers an evolutionary process that drives a phenotypic trait beyond a tipping point, thereby resulting after a substantial delay in a selection-induced regime shift. Our finding draws attention to the fact that regime shifts observed in the present may result from changes in the distant past and highlights the need for integrating evolutionary dynamics into the theoretical foundation for ecosystem resilience.

The ability of a species to adapt to environmental change is ultimately reflected in its vital rates – i.e. survival and reproductive success of individuals. Together, vital rates determine trends in numbers, commonly monitored using counts of species abundance. Rapid changes in abundance can give rise to concern, leading to calls for research into the biological mechanisms underlying variations in demography. For the northwest European population of Bewick's swan Cygnus columbianus bewickii, there have been major changes in the population trends recorded during nearly five decades of monitoring (1970–2016). The total number of birds increased to a maximum of ca 30 000 in 1995 and subsequently decreased to about 18 000 individuals in 2010. Such large fluctuation in population numbers is rare in long‐lived species and understanding the drivers of this population change is crucial for species management and conservation. Using the integrated population model (IPM) framework, we analysed three demographic datasets in combination: population counts, capture–mark–resightings (CMR) and the proportion of juveniles in winter over a period of ~50 years. We found higher apparent breeding success in the years when the population had a positive growth rate compared to years with a negative growth rate. Moreover, no consistent trend in adult and yearling survival, and an increasing trend in juvenile survival was found. A transient life‐table response experiment showed that apparent breeding success and adult survival contributed most to the variation in population trend. We explored possible explanatory variables for the different demographic rates and found a significant association between juvenile survival both with the water level in lakes during autumn migration, which affects food accessibility for the swans, and with summer temperatures. Such associations are important for understanding the dynamics of species with fluctuating population sizes, and thus for informing management and conservation decisions.

Feeding specialization is a common cause of individual variation. Fitness payoffs of specialization vary with environmental conditions, but the underlying behavioral mechanisms are poorly understood. Such mechanistic knowledge, however, is crucial to reliably predict responses of heterogeneous populations to environmental change. We quantified spatiotemporal allocation of foraging behavior in wintering Eurasian oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus), a species in which feeding specialization can be inferred from bill shape. We combined global positioning system (GPS) and accelerometer data to quantify foraging time of 64 individuals for every tidal period in one or two winter seasons. Individuals varied widely in foraging time (3.7-6.5 h per tidal period) and individuals that spend more time foraging had lower inferred survival. Feeding specialization appeared a major determinant of individual variation in foraging time and its spatiotemporal allocation. Visually hunting worm specialists foraged more during day time and complemented intertidal foraging with grassland foraging when the exposure of intertidal flats was limited and nights were well illuminated. Shellfish specialists increased total foraging time in cold weather, whereas foraging time of worm specialists decreased as frosty grasslands became inaccessible. Our results imply that worm specialists may be most sensitive to cold snaps and daytime disturbance, whereas shellfish specialists are most sensitive to high water levels. These behavioral responses can be implemented in population models to predict the vulnerability of heterogeneous populations to environmental change and, thereby, provide a shortcut to long-term population studies that require fitness data across many years and conditions to make similar projections. Lay Summary: Populations consist of different types of individuals. Predicting how heterogeneous populations of long-lived species respond to environmental change is hard as it takes decades to quantify how fitness varies among individuals in different environmental conditions. We studied the behavior of GPS-tracked oystercatchers and showed how foraging time is differentially affected by environmental conditions among individuals that specialize in different prey. This knowledge can be implemented in models to predict the vulnerability of heterogeneous populations to environmental change.

GPS‐tracking devices have been used in combination with a wide range of additional sensors to study animal behaviour, physiology and interaction with their environment. Tri‐axial accelerometers allow researchers to remotely infer the behaviour of individuals, at all places and times. Collection of accelerometer data is relatively cheap in terms of energy usage, but the amount of raw data collected generally requires much storage space and is particularly demanding in terms of energy needed for data transmission.Here, we propose compressing the raw accelerometer (ACC) data into summary statistics within the tracking device (before transmission) to reduce data size, as a means to overcome limitations in storage and energy capacity.We explored this type of lossy data compression in the accelerometer data of tagged Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii collected in spring 2017. Using software settings in which bouts of 2 s of both raw ACC data and summary statistics were collected in parallel but with different bout intervals to keep total data size comparable, we created the opportunity for a direct comparison of time budgets derived by the two data collection methods.We found that the data compression in our case yielded a six times reduction in data size per bout, and concurrent, similar decreases in storage and energy use of the device. We show that with the same accuracy of the behavioural classification, the freed memory and energy of the device can be used to increase the monitoring effort, resulting in a more detailed representation of the individuals’ time budget. Rare and/or short behaviours, such as daily roost flights, were picked up significantly more when collecting summary statistics instead of raw ACC data (but note differences in sampling rate). Such level of detail can be of essential importance, for instance to make a reliable estimate of the energy budgets of individuals.In conclusion, we argue that this type of lossy data compression can be a well‐considered choice in study situations where limitations in energy and storage space of the device pose a problem. Ultimately, these developments can allow for long‐term and nearly continuous remote monitoring of the behaviour of free‐ranging animals., Lossy compression of accelerometer data increases biologging capacity of a tracking device and enables long term (i.e. several years) and detailed logging of animal behaviour. The use of lossy data compression can be a well‐considered choice in study situations where limitations in energy and storage space of the device pose a problem.

BackgroundRecent kinship models focus on the age structures of kin as a function of the age of the focal individual. However, variables in addition to age have important impacts. Generalizing age-specific models to multistate models including other variables is an important and hitherto unsolved problem.ObjectivesOur aim is to develop a multistate kinship model, classifying individuals jointly by age and other criteria (generically, “stages”).MethodsWe use the vec-permutation method to create multistate projection matrices including age- and stage-dependent survival, fertility, and transitions. These matrices operate on block-structured population vectors that describe the age×stage structure of each kind of kin, at each age of a focal individual.ResultsThe new matrix formulation is directly comparable to, and greatly extends, the recent age-classified kinship model of Caswell (2019a). As an application, we derive a model that includes age and parity. We obtain, for all types of kin, the joint age×parity structure, the marginal age and parity structures, and the (normalized) parity distributions, at every age of the focal individual. We show how to use the age×parity distributions to calculate the distributions of sibship sizes of kin.As an example, we apply the model to Slovakia (1960–2014). The results include a dramatic shift in the parity distribution as the frequency of low-parity kin increased and that of high-parity kin decreased.ContributionThe new model extends the formal demographic analysis of kinship to age×stage-classified models. In addition to parity, other stage classifications, including marital status, maternal age effects, and sex are now open to analysis.

Ontogenetic niche shifts have helped to understand population dynamics. Here we show that ontogenetic niche shifts also offer an explanation, complementary to traditional concepts, as to why certain species show seasonal migration. We describe how demographic processes (survival, reproduction and migration) and associated ecological requirements of species may change with ontogenetic stage (juvenile, adult) and across the migratory range (breeding, non-breeding). We apply this concept to widely different species (dark-bellied brent geese (Branta b. bernicla), humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) and migratory Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) to check the generality of this hypothesis. Consistent with the idea that ontogenetic niche shifts are an important driver of seasonal migration, we find that growth and survival of juvenile life stages profit most from ecological conditions that are specific to breeding areas. We suggest that matrix population modelling techniques are promising to detect the importance of the ontogenetic niche shifts in maintaining migratory strategies. As a proof of concept, we applied a first analysis to resident, partial migratory and fully migratory populations of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis). We argue that recognition of the costs and benefits of migration, and how these vary with life stages, is important to understand and conserve migration under global environmental change. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00442-020-04682-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Renewable energy continues to grow globally, and the number of offshore wind farms is set to increase. Whilst wind energy developments provide energy security and reduced carbon budgets, they may impact bird populations through collision mortality, habitat modification and avoidance. To date, avian collision mortality has received the most attention and collision risk models have been developed to estimate the potential mortality caused by wind turbines. The utility of these models relies not only on their underlying assumptions but also on the data available to ensure the predictions are informative. Using a stochastic collision risk model (sCRM; based on the Band collision risk model) as an example, we explore the importance of bird flight speed and consider how the assumptions of the model influence the sensitivity to flight speed. Furthermore we explore the consequences of using site-specific GPS-derived flight speed rather than a standard generic value, with Lesser Black-backed Gulls Larus fuscus as an example, and consider how this generic value is currently used. We found that the model was most sensitive to the parameters of bird density, non-avoidance rate and percentage of birds at collision risk height, as well as bird flight speed. Using site-specific flight speed data derived from GPS tags rather than a standard value reduced the predicted number of collisions. We highlight that within the model, both the estimation of the probability of collision (PColl) and the flux of birds are sensitive to the bird flight speed; this sensitivity acts in opposite directions but the two do not necessarily balance out. Therefore, when the sCRM is used as generally done, there is little difference in collision estimates if airspeeds (bird flight speed relative to air through which it is moving) are used rather than groundspeeds (bird flight speed relative to ground). Estimates of seabird collision rates in relation to offshore wind farms are impacting future offshore wind development. By using site specific flight speed estimates and, accounting for different speeds in relation to wind direction, we demonstrate that cumulative collision estimates can be affected, highlighting the need for more representative flight speed data and where possible site-specific data.

Urbanization is an important human-driven process that leads to biodiversity loss and alters the interactions between organisms, including disease transmission. Although urbanization affects both host and vector communities, the effects on vector-borne pathogens are still poorly understood. Here, we monitored variation in prevalence and richness of three common blood parasites in birds (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon) from localities with different land uses (urban, rural and natural) during two consecutive years (2013 and 2014). Overall, 1400 juvenile house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from 15 localities in southern Spain were included in this study. Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon prevalence was higher in 2013 than in 2014, particularly in urban and natural habitats for the case of Leucocytozoon. Prevalence was correlated between years for Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon, independently of the habitat. Additionally, rural habitats harboured significantly higher Haemoproteus lineage richness compared to urban and natural habitats during 2014. Leucocytozoon lineage richness was negatively correlated between years in rural habitats but positively correlated in urban and natural habitats in comparison. Parasite lineages found in birds were homogeneously distributed along habitats and years and the common lineages prevalence were not influenced by them. Our results highlight different patterns of infection depending on the parasite genera probably related to the composition and density of vector communities. The specific reproductive environmental requirements of the different groups of vectors involved in the transmission may be affected by climatic conditions and landscape features.

In many bird species intraspecific variation in migration strategies is related to sex or size. The Eurasian Bittern Botaurus stellaris is a sexually size-dimorphic heron species with a vast breeding and wintering range spanning a range of climates. Ringing data show that Bitterns from northern populations migrate westwards or southwards over thousands of kilometres, while Bitterns from southern or temperate breeding areas migrate much shorter distances or remain resident. So far, any differences in the migrations of males and females have remained unstudied. In temperate climates, relatively benign winters alternate with the occasional harsh winter, and under these conditions, males as the larger sex might take the risk to stay rather than show seasonal migration. In the years 2010-2012 we equipped three females and three males from breeding areas in The Netherlands with a tracking device, recording their movements over periods of 2-5 years. All three males and one female stayed within or near the breeding area during the non-breeding season, but two females moved to distant wintering sites. One female migrated 4900 km to The Gambia providing the first direct evidence for trans-Saharan migration in this species. Another female migrated 700 km to winter in Devon, UK, for five consecutive years. The Bitterns were site-faithful to their breeding area and, mostly, to their wintering areas as well, although one male and one female progressively wintered closer to the breeding area in three successive years. Our results suggest that larger males from The Netherlands, a breeding area with fluctuating winter conditions, are predominantly resident, while the females are partial migrants with individually different and flexible strategies.

Newly constructed wetlands are created to provide a range of ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration. Our understanding of the initial factors leading to successful peat formation in such environments is, however, limited. In a new 100-ha wetland that was created north of Amsterdam (the Netherlands), we conducted an experiment to determine the best combination of abiotic and biotic starting conditions for initial peat-forming processes. Sediment conditions were the main driver of vegetation development, biomass production and elemental composition during the 3-year study period. Overall, helophytes (Typhaspp.) dominated basins with nutrient-rich conditions, whereas nutrient-poor basins were covered by submerged vegetation, which produced about seven times less aboveground biomass than helophytes. The C/N ratios for all plant species and biomass components were generally lower under nutrient-rich conditions and were lower for submerged species than helophytes. Because total basin biomass showed five times higher shoot and ten times higher root and rhizome production for clay and organic than sand sediments, even with some differences in decomposition rates are the conditions in the nutrient-rich basins expected to produce higher levels of initial peat formation. The results suggest that addition of a nutrient-rich sediment layer creates the best conditions for initial peat formation by stimulating rapid development of helophytes.

Our objective is to analyse global‐scale patterns of mountain biodiversity and the driving forces leading to the observed patterns. More specifically, we test the ‘mountain geobiodiversity hypothesis’ (MGH) which is based on the assumption that it is not mountain‐uplift alone which drives the evolution of mountain biodiversity, but rather the combination of geodiversity evolution and Neogene and Pleistocene climate changes. We address the following questions: (a) Do areas of high geodiversity and high biodiversity in mountains overlap, that is can mountain geodiversity predict mountain biodiversity? (b) What is the role of Pleistocene climate change in shaping mountain biodiversity? (c) Did diversification rate shifts occur predominantly with the onset of more pronounced climate fluctuations in the late Neogene and Pleistocene fostering a ‘species pump’ effect, as predicted by the MGH?

Aim: Tall and structurally complex forests can provide ample habitat and niche space for climbing plants, supporting high liana species richness. We test to what extent canopy height (as a proxy of 3-D habitat structure), climate and soil interact to determine species richness in the largest clade of Neotropical lianas. We expect that the effect of canopy height on species richness is higher for lianas from closed tropical rain forests compared to riparian and savanna habitats. Location: Neotropics. Time period: Present. Major taxa studied: Tribe Bignonieae (Bignoniaceae). Methods: We used structural equation models to evaluate direct and indirect effects of canopy height, climate (temperature, precipitation and precipitation seasonality), and soil (cation exchange capacity and soil types) on overall Bignonieae species richness (339 liana species), as well as on species richness of lianas from forest, riparian and savanna habitats, respectively. We further performed multiple regression models with Moran's eigenvector maps to account for spatial autocorrelation. Results: Canopy height was a key driver of liana species richness, in addition to climate and soil. Species richness of forest lianas showed a strong positive relationship with canopy height whereas the relationship was less pronounced for riparian species. Richness of savanna species decreased with increasing canopy height. Climate also explained a substantial proportion of variation in liana species richness whereas soil variables showed little explanatory power. Main conclusions: The relationship between canopy height and liana species richness differs among habitats. While forest and riparian lianas benefit from tall and complex habitats that provide physical support to reach the canopy to escape low light availability in the understorey, high light availability in open habitats and an increased risk of embolism of conductive vessels for lianas with long stems living in areas with high seasonality might explain the inverse relationship between species richness and canopy height in savannas., Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico Grant Numbers: 208414/2017‐7, 301799/2016‐4, 309550/2015‐7, 310871/2017‐4, 314523/2014‐6, 381391/2018‐3, 465610/2014‐5, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo. Grant Number: 2012/50260‐6 Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior. Grant Number: Finance code 001

1. Wind energy generation has become an important means to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and mitigate against human‐induced climate change, but could also represent a significant human–wildlife conflict. Airborne taxa such as birds may be particularly sensitive to collision mortality with wind turbines, yet the relative vulnerability of species’ populations across their annual life cycles has not been evaluated.2. Using GPS telemetry, we studied the movements of lesser black‐backed gulls Larus fuscus from three UK breeding colonies through their annual cycle. We modelled the distance travelled by birds at altitudes between the minimum and maximum rotor sweep zone of turbines, combined with the probability of collision, to estimate sensitivity to collision. Sensitivity was then combined with turbine density (exposure) to evaluate spatio‐temporal vulnerability.3. Sensitivity was highest near to colonies during the breeding season, where a greater distance travelled by birds was in concentrated areas where they were exposed to turbines.4. Consequently, vulnerability was high near to colonies but was also high at some migration bottlenecks and wintering sites where, despite a reduced sensitivity, exposure to turbines was greatest.5. Synthesis and applications. Our framework combines bird‐borne telemetry and spatial data on the location of wind turbines to identify potential areas of conflict for migratory populations throughout their annual cycle. This approach can aid the wind farm planning process by: (a) providing sensitivity maps to inform wind farm placement, helping minimize impacts; (b) identifying areas of high vulnerability where mitigation warrants exploration; (c) highlighting potential cumulative impacts of developments over international boundaries and (d) informing the conservation status of species at protected sites. Our methods can identify pressures and linkages for populations using effect‐specific metrics that are transferable and could help resolve other human–wildlife conflicts.

We used proteomic profiling to taxonomically classify extinct, alongside extant bird species using mass spectrometry on ancient bone-derived collagen chains COL1A1 and COL1A2. Proteins of Holocene and Late Pleistocene-aged bones from dodo (Raphus cucullatus) and great auk (Pinguinus impennis), as well as bones from chicken (Gallus gallus), rock dove (Columba livia), zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) and peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus), of various ages ranging from the present to 1455 years old were analysed. HCl and guandine-HCL-based protein extractions from fresh bone materials yielded up to 60% coverage of collagens COL1A1 and COL1A2, and extractions from ancient materials yielded up to 46% coverage of collagens COL1A1 and COL1A2. Data were retrieved from multiple peptide sequences obtained from different specimens and multiple extractions. Upon alignment, and in line with the latest evolutionary insights, protein data obtained from great auk grouped with data from a recently sequenced razorbill (Alca torda) genome. Similarly, protein data obtained from bones of dodo and modern rock dove grouped in a single clade. Lastly, protein data obtained from chicken bones, both from ancient and fresh materials, grouped as a separate, basal clade. Our proteomic analyses enabled taxonomic classification of all ancient bones, thereby complementing phylogenetics based on DNA.

AimSpecies in ecological communities are linked by biotic interactions. It is therefore important to simultaneously study the impacts of global warming on interdependent taxa from different trophic levels. Here, we quantify current and potential future associations of functional diversity (based on multiple traits) and functional identity (based on individual traits) between interacting taxa using projection models under climate change.LocationA tropical elevational gradient (500–3,500 m a.s.l.) in the Manú biosphere reserve, south‐east Peru.MethodsWe investigated different scenarios of how species' elevational ranges might change under climate change based on projected future increases in mean annual temperature and current associations of species' elevational ranges with temperature. We computed the functional diversity and identity of current and potential future plant and bird communities based on morphological traits that have been shown to be important for plant–frugivore interactions. Finally, we tested for changes in the associations between projected functional diversity and identity of future plant and bird communities.ResultsProjected functional diversity of plants and birds decreased under range contraction and range shift scenarios at low elevations. At mid‐ and high elevations, functional diversity of both species groups increased most strongly under range expansion. Correspondence between plant and bird functional diversity was weakest under range contraction, while it remained strong under range expansion and shift. Similarly, the correspondence of projected plant and bird functional identity was weakest under a range contraction scenario.Main conclusionsOur findings suggest that a scenario in which species are dispersal‐limited and sensitive to increasing temperatures is likely to cause a functional mismatch between plant and bird communities along this tropical elevational gradient. This implies that certain functional types of plants could miss avian seed dispersers in the future. Our approach of studying functional diversity of interacting taxa could be more widely applied to identify potential future mismatches between trophic levels.

Long-lived avian scavengers are threatened worldwide and thus, are common targets of conservation plans. However, scientific evidence of both the factors limiting populations and effectiveness of management actions are greatly needed in order to develop more efficient and successful conservation strategies. We assessed the effectiveness of conservation actions applied within a LIFE-Nature project aimed at improving the long-term survival of the critically endangered Canarian Egyptian vulture: including education campaigns for public awareness and control of illegal poisoning and the modification of power lines to reduce the risk of accidents. We formulated a multievent capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of survival for juvenile, subadult and adult birds accounting for probabilities of resight, recovery and losses of metal and colour rings. Models supported a substantial enhancement in survival for subadult and adult birds and a moderate improvement for juveniles after the implementation of LIFE actions. Ring loss probabilities became notably high in the middle to long term. Poisoning events became very rare after LIFE was implemented, suggesting a positive effect of environmental education and awareness campaigns. Entanglements and collisions in power lines were also efficiently mitigated. Instead, electrocutions became the most identified cause of death in the post-LIFE stage. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight the improvement of survival in a threatened island vulture population after the implementation of a European LIFE conservation project. On small islands, with small human populations and few stakeholders, education and awareness campaigns can be especially effective for biodiversity conservation. We also demonstrate the need to complement conservation programmes with long-term monitoring, which is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of actions, especially for long-lived species.

Almost all animal species undergo metamorphosis, even though empirical data show that this life-history strategy evolved only a few times. Why is metamorphosis so widespread, and why has it evolved? Here we study the evolution of metamorphosis by using a fully size-structured population model in conjunction with the adaptive-dynamics approach. We assume that individuals compete for two food sources; one of these, the primary food source, is available to individuals of all sizes. The secondary food source is available only to large individuals. Without metamorphosis, unresolvable tensions arise for species faced with the opportunity of specializing on such a secondary food source. We show that metamorphosis can evolve as a way to resolve these tensions, such that small individuals specialize on the primary food source while large individuals specialize on the secondary food source. We find, however, that metamorphosis evolves only when the supply rate of the secondary food source exceeds a high threshold. Individuals postpone metamorphosis when the ecological conditions under which metamorphosis originally evolved deteriorate but will often not abandon this life-history strategy, even if it causes population extinction through evolutionary trapping. In summary, our results show that metamorphosis is not easy to evolve but that, once evolved, it is hard to lose. These findings can explain the widespread occurrence of metamorphosis in the animal kingdom despite its few evolutionary origins.

1. Migration, the recurring movement of individuals between a breeding and a non‐breeding habitat, is a widespread phenomenon in the animal kingdom. Since the life cycle of migratory species involves two habitats, they are particularly vulnerable to environmental change, which may affect either of these habitats as well as the travel between them.2. In this study, we aim to reveal the consequences of environmental change affecting older life‐history stages for the population dynamics and the individual life history of a migratory population.3. We formulate a population model based on the individual energetics and life history to study how increased energetic cost of the breeding travel and reduced survival and food availability in the non‐breeding habitat affect an anadromous fish population.4. These unfavourable conditions have impacts at the individual and the population level. First, when conditions deteriorate individuals in the breeding habitat have a higher body growth rate as a consequence of reductions in spawning that reduce competition. Second, population abundance decreases, and its dynamics change from a regular annual cycle to oscillations with a period of four years. The oscillations are caused by the density‐dependent feedback between individuals within a cohort through the food abundance in the breeding habitat, which results in alternation of a strong and a weak cohort.5. Our results explain how environmental change, by affecting older life‐history stages, has multiple consequences for other life stages and for the entire population. We discuss these results in the context of empirical data and highlight the need for mechanistic understanding of the interactions between life‐history and population dynamics in response to environmental change.

Weather surveillance radars are increasingly used for monitoring the movements and abundances of animals in the airspace. However, analysis of weather radar data remains a specialised task that can be technically challenging. Major hurdles are the difficulty of accessing and visualising radar data on a software platform familiar to ecologists and biologists, processing the low‐level data into products that are biologically meaningful, and summarizing these results in standardized measures. To overcome these hurdles, we developed the open source R package bioRad, which provides a toolbox for accessing, visualizing and analyzing weather radar data for biological studies. It provides functionality to access low‐level radar data, process these data into meaningful biological information on animal speeds and directions at different altitudes in the atmosphere, visualize these biological extractions, and calculate further summary statistics. The package aims to standardize methods for extracting and reporting biological signals from weather radars. Here we describe a roadmap for analyzing weather radar data using bioRad. We also define weather radar equivalents for familiar measures used in the field of migration ecology, such as migration traffic rates, and recommend several good practices for reporting these measures. The bioRad package integrates with low‐level data from both the European radar network (OPERA) and the radar network of the United States (NEXRAD). bioRad aims to make weather radar studies in ecology easier and more reproducible, allowing for better inter‐comparability of studies. Weather surveillance radars are increasingly used for monitoring the movements and abundances of animals in the airspace. However, analysis of weather radar data remains a specialised task that can be technically challenging. Major hurdles are the difficulty of accessing and visualising radar data on a software platform familiar to ecologists and biologists, processing the low-level data into products that are biologically meaningful, and summarizing these results in standardized measures. To overcome these hurdles, we developed the open source R package bioRad, which provides a toolbox for accessing, visualizing and analyzing weather radar data for biological studies. It provides functionality to access low-level radar data, process these data into meaningful biological information on animal speeds and directions at different altitudes in the atmosphere, visualize these biological extractions, and calculate further summary statistics. The package aims to standardize methods for extracting and reporting biological signals from weather radars. Here we describe a roadmap for analyzing weather radar data using bioRad. We also define weather radar equivalents for familiar measures used in the field of migration ecology, such as migration traffic rates, and recommend several good practices for reporting these measures. The bioRad package integrates with low-level data from both the European radar network (OPERA) and the radar network of the United States (NEXRAD). bioRad aims to make weather radar studies in ecology easier and more reproducible, allowing for better inter-comparability of studies.

Nocturnal avian migration flyways remain an elusive concept, as we have largely lacked methods to map their full extent. We used the network of European weather radars to investigate nocturnal bird movements at the scale of the European flyway. We mapped the main migration directions and showed the intensity of movement across part of Europe by extracting biological information from 70 weather radar stations from northern Scandinavia to Portugal, during the autumn migration season of 2016. On average, over the 20 nights and all sites, 389 birds passed per 1 km transect per hour. The night with highest migration intensity showed an average of 1621 birds km–1 h–1 passing the radar stations, but there was considerable geographical and temporal variation in migration intensity. The highest intensity of migration was seen in central France. The overall migration directions showed strong southwest components. Migration dynamics were strongly related to synoptic wind conditions. A wind‐related mass migration event occurred immediately after a change in wind conditions, but quickly diminished even when supporting winds continued to prevail. This first continental‐scale study using the European network of weather radars demonstrates the wealth of information available and its potential for investigating large‐scale bird movements, with consequences for ecosystem function, nutrient transfer, human and livestock health, and civil and military aviation.

Many migratory species have experienced substantial declines that resulted from rapid and massive expansions of human structures and activities, habitat alterations and climate change. Migrants are also recognized as an integral component of biodiversity and provide a multitude of services and disservices that are relevant to human agri-culture, economy and health. The plethora of recently published studies reflects the need for better fundamental knowledge on migrations and for better management of their ecological and human-relevant effects. Yet, where are we in providing answers to fundamental questions and societal challenges?Engaging a broad network of researchers worldwide, we used a horizon-scan approach to identify the most important challenges which need to be overcome in order to gain a fuller understanding of migration ecology, and which could be addressed using radar aeroecological and macroecological approaches. The top challenges include both long-standing and novel topics, ranging from fundamental information on migration routes and phenology, orientation and navigation strategies, and the multitude of effects migrants may have on resident communities, to societal challenges, such as protecting or preventing migrant services and disservices, and the conservation of migrants in the face of environmental changes. We outline these challenges, identify the urgency of addressing them and the primary stakeholders – researchers, policy makers and practitioners, or funders of research

One of the most important geographical bottlenecks for migrating raptors in the east African-Palearctic migration system is situated between the easternmost tip of the Black Sea and the Lesser Caucasus, just north of Batumi, in the Republic of Georgia. Since 2008, citizen scientists of the Batumi Raptor Count (BRC) have monitored the autumn raptor passage daily from mid-August until mid-October, collecting also detailed information about the age and sex of focal species. The full BRC dataset was recently made available through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Here we describe how count data were collected, managed, and processed for trend analysis over the past 10 years. This dataset offers a unique baseline for monitoring the state of migrant raptor populations in the east African-Palearctic flyway in the 21st century. We discuss potential pitfalls for users and hope that the open access publication of our data will stimulate flyway-scale and continent-wide collaboration for raptor migration monitoring in the Old World

Flight behaviour characteristics such as flight altitude and avoidance behaviour determine the species‐specific collision risk of birds with wind turbines. However, traditional observational methods exhibit limited positional accuracy. High‐resolution GPS telemetry represents a promising method to overcome this drawback. In this study, we used three‐dimensional GPS tracking data including high‐accuracy tracks recorded at 3‐s intervals to investigate the collision risk of breeding male Montagu's Harriers Circus pygargus in the Dutch–German border region. Avoidance of wind turbines was quantified by a novel approach comparing observed flights to a null model of random flight behaviour. On average, Montagu's Harriers spent as much as 8.2 h per day in flight. Most flights were at low altitude, with only 7.1% within the average rotor height range (RHR; 45–125 m). Montagu's Harriers showed significant avoidance behaviour, approaching turbines less often than expected, particularly when flying within the RHR (avoidance rate of 93.5%). For the present state, with wind farms situated on the fringes of the regional nesting range, collision risk models based on our new insights on flight behaviour indicated 0.6–2.0 yearly collisions of adult males (as compared with a population size of c. 40 pairs). However, the erection of a new wind farm inside the core breeding area could markedly increase mortality (up to 9.7 yearly collisions). If repowering of the wind farms was carried out using low‐reaching modern turbines (RHR 36–150 m), mortality would more than double, whereas it would stay approximately constant if higher turbines (RHR 86–200 m) were used. Our study demonstrates the great potential of high‐resolution GPS tracking for collision risk assessments. The resulting information on collision‐related flight behaviour allows for performing detailed scenario analyses on wind farm siting and turbine design, in contrast to current environmental assessment practices. With regard to Montagu's Harriers, we conclude that although the deployment of higher wind turbines represents an opportunity to reduce collision risk for this species, precluding wind energy developments in core breeding areas remains the most important mitigation measure.

Morph-specific mate choice has been proposed as one of the evolutionary mechanisms that contribute to the maintenance of variation in color polymorphic systems. Coloration usually covaries with other phenotypic traits affecting life history and thus is often used as a criterion for mate choice. Here, we assess whether mating patterns, natal dispersal, and breeding output are phenotype-dependent in the color polymorphic Eleonora’s falcon. We used a long-term dataset of 946 individually ringed adult falcons that included 109 individuals monitored from birth up to recruitment into the breeding population. Overall, patterns of mate choice with regard to coloration were neither assortative nor disassortative. Natal dispersal distance was greater in females but was not associated with coloration. Breeding success was both morph-dependent and context-dependent. Although clutch size was similar in differently colored pairs, differences arose in the number of chicks that fledge. In some years, dark males raised more offspring, regardless of female color morph. Differences in the breeding tactics between male morphs could be associated with intraspecific predation and may thus contribute to the observed differences in breeding output, especially when food availability is low. This suggests that mating patterns may interact with other factors and give rise to the observed higher breeding output of dark males only under certain environmental conditions., In color polymorphic species, individuals can prefer mates of the same or different color, change preference according to socio-environmental conditions, or even show no preference. Coloration can advertise many individual qualities, including kinship. Eleonora’s falcons morphs do not mate assortatively or disassortatively, although two incestuous pairs were of the same dark-morph. Dark males raised more offspring than pale ones, but not all years, suggesting that mating interactions in turn interact with environmental factors.

While many species suffer from human activities, some like geese benefit and may show range expansions. In some cases geese (partially) gave up migration and started breeding at wintering and stopover grounds. Range expansion may be facilitated and accompanied by physiological changes, especially when associated with changes in migratory behaviour. Interspecific comparisons found that migratory tendency is associated with a higher basal or resting metabolic rate (RMR). We compared RMR of individuals belonging to a migratory and a sedentary colony of barnacle geese Branta leucopsis. The migratory colony is situated in the traditional arctic breeding grounds (Russia), whereas the sedentary colony has recently been established in the now shared wintering area (the Netherlands). We measured RMR by oxygen consumption (urn:x-wiley:00301299:media:oik12892:oik12892-math-0001) during two ontogenetic phases (juvenile growth and adult wing moult). We also investigated juvenile growth rates and adult body mass dynamics. Mass‐independent urn:x-wiley:00301299:media:oik12892:oik12892-math-0002 was 13.6% lower in goslings from the sedentary colony than in goslings from the migratory colony. Similarly, in adult geese, mass‐independent urn:x-wiley:00301299:media:oik12892:oik12892-math-0003 was 15.5% lower in sedentary than in migratory conspecifics. Goslings in the Netherlands grew 36.2% slower than goslings in Russia, while we found no differences in body dimensions in adults. Adult geese from both colonies commenced wing moult with similar body stores, but whereas Russian barnacle geese maintained this level throughout moult, body stores in geese from the Netherlands fell, being 8.5% lower half‐way through the moult. We propose that the colony differences in resting metabolic rate, growth rate and body mass dynamics during moult can be explained by environmental and behavioural differences. The less stringent time constraints combined with poorer foraging opportunities allow for a smaller ‘metabolic machinery’ in non‐migratory geese. Our analysis suggests that range expansion may be associated with changes in physiology, especially when paired with changes in migratory tendency.

Increasingly, space use by foraging seabirds is being used as an indicator of ocean condition to inform projected planning for climate change, fisheries management and marine protected areas. We tracked foraging common noddies (Anous stolidus) from a colony in the East Indian Ocean using back-mounted solar GPS trackers during incubation and chick rearing to evaluate their suitability as biomonitors of ocean condition, and the overlap of flight tracks with marine protected area boundaries. This is the first study to track this species in its eastern distribution and across different stages of the breeding cycle. Six birds were tracked for 89 days in total, describing 10 089 km of flight. Birds made significantly longer trips during chick rearing, which may reflect reduced availability of prey. The tracking period coincided with a particularly strong ENSO event, which may have impacted foraging behaviour, but the foraging area was found to be at least 10 000 km2. Foraging was associated with the end points of outward trips that were generally at the edge of the continental shelf, or within proximity of canyon-like bathymetric features or current structures on the shelf. Birds foraged over the shelf during incubation, suggesting a greater reliance on food web structures associated with Leeuwin Current structures. Home ranges and movement tracks showed limited overlap with proposed marine park boundaries, but are promising as indicators of ocean productivity, suggesting that their role in the design of marine reserve networks in the future should be maximised.

Angiosperms have been essential components of primate diets for millions of years, but the relative importance of different angiosperm families remains unclear. Here, we assess the contribution and ecological and evolutionary significance of plant families to diets of wild primates by compiling an unprecedented dataset of almost 9000 dietary records from 141 primary sources covering 112 primate species. Of the 205 angiosperm plant families recorded in primate diets, only 10 were consumed by more than half of primate species. Plants of the Moraceae and Fabaceae families were the most widely and frequently consumed, and they likely represent keystone resources for primates. Over 75% of species fed on these two families, and together they made up a median of approximately 13% of primate diets. By analysing the relative proportion of different plant parts consumed, we found that Moraceae was mainly eaten as fruit and Fabaceae as non-fruit parts, with the consumption of these two families not showing a significant phylogenetic signal across primate species. Moraceae consumption was associated with small home range sizes, even though more frugivorous primates tended to have larger home ranges compared to more folivorous species, possibly due to the year-round availability of moraceous fruits and the asynchrony in their phenology. Our results suggest that primates may be intricately and subtly shaped by the plant families that they have consumed over millions of years, and highlight the importance of detailed dietary studies to better understand primate ecology and evolution.

Significance Using food web models that account for juvenile and adult individuals of species, I show that commonly observed differences between juveniles and adults in foraging capacity and predation risk result in larger, more complex communities than predicted by models without stage structure. Based on their species interaction networks these complex and diverse communities would be expected to be unstable, but these destabilizing effects of species interactions are overruled by stabilizing changes in juvenile–adult stage structure. Differences between juvenile and adult individuals hence offer a natural resolution to the diversity–stability enigma of ecological communities., Natural ecological communities are diverse, complex, and often surprisingly stable, but the mechanisms underlying their stability remain a theoretical enigma. Interactions such as competition and predation presumably structure communities, yet theory predicts that complex communities are stable only when species growth rates are mostly limited by intraspecific self-regulation rather than by interactions with resources, competitors, and predators. Current theory, however, considers only the network topology of population-level interactions between species and ignores within-population differences, such as between juvenile and adult individuals. Here, using model simulations and analysis, I show that including commonly observed differences in vulnerability to predation and foraging efficiency between juvenile and adult individuals results in up to 10 times larger, more complex communities than observed in simulations without population stage structure. These diverse communities are stable or fluctuate with limited amplitude, although in the model only a single basal species is self-regulated, and the population-level interaction network is highly connected. Analysis of the species interaction matrix predicts the simulated communities to be unstable but for the interaction with the population-structure subsystem, which completely cancels out these instabilities through dynamic changes in population stage structure. Common differences between juveniles and adults and fluctuations in their relative abundance may hence have a decisive influence on the stability of complex natural communities and their vulnerability when environmental conditions change. To explain community persistence, it may not be sufficient to consider only the network of interactions between the constituting species.

Monitoring global biodiversity from space through remotely sensing geospatial patterns has high potential to add to our knowl- edge acquired by field observation. Although a framework of essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) is emerging for monitoring biodiversity, its poor alignment with remote sensing products hinders interpolation between field observations. This study compiles a comprehensive, prioritized list of remote sensing biodiversity products that can further improve the monitoring of geospatial biodiversity patterns, enhancing the EBV framework and its applicability. The ecosystem structure and ecosystem function EBV classes, which capture the biological effects of disturbance as well as habitat structure, are shown by an expert review process to be the most relevant, feasible, accurate and mature for direct monitoring of biodiversity from satellites. Biodiversity products that require satellite remote sensing of a finer resolution that is still under development are given lower priority (for example, for the EBV class species traits). Some EBVs are not directly measurable by remote sensing from space, specifically the EBV class genetic composition. Linking remote sensing products to EBVs will accelerate product generation, improving reporting on the state of biodiversity from local to global scales.

Non-frugivorous waterbirds disperse a wide variety of plants by endozoochory, providing longer-dispersal distances than other mechanisms. Many waterbirds visit both agricultural and natural landscapes during their daily movements, but potential bird-mediated dispersal of weed plants within and from agricultural landscapes to other habitats is commonly overlooked. Gulls (Laridae) are expanding in numbers and increasingly exploiting anthropogenic habitats worldwide, with possible growing implications for the spread of weeds. Yet, to date, there are no studies on the spatial distribution of weed dispersal by waterbirds. We developed a plant dispersal model based on movements of 19 Larus fuscus using ricefields, via GPS telemetry. We combined daily movements with two curves estimating the retention times of plant seeds in their guts: (a) an experimental curve based on retention time in captivity for four weeds with dry fruits known to be dispersed by gulls: Juncus bufonius, Cyperus difformis, Polypogon monspeliensis and the alien Amaranthus retroflexus; (b) a theoretical curve based on the interspecific scaling relationship between body mass and mean retention time. Median dispersal distances of weed plant seeds by gulls ranged between 690 and 940 m, but maximum distances exceeded 150 km. The theoretical retention time model showed higher median dispersal distances than the experimental retention time model. Spatial patterns of weed deposition were very similar between retention time methods, and most strongly depended on gull movements. Variation between individual gulls had little influence on seed shadows. About 92% of all seeds (>10,000 intact seeds per day) were dispersed within the ricefield area of 370 km2. The remaining 8% of seeds were deposited beyond ricefields into other habitats, 42% of which reached moist environments (other irrigated agriculture, rivers and natural wetlands) presumably suitable for weed establishment. Synthesis. Gulls can disperse weed plants over long distances across a mosaic of habitats. This implies exchange of weed plant species between human-dominated and natural areas by waterbirds as dispersal vectors. This spatial study highlights the importance of non-frugivorous birds for long-distance plant dispersal, which is generally an overlooked mechanism in studies aiming to predict and manage expansion of weed plants.

Climate change is driving worldwide shifts in the distribution of biodiversity, and fundamental changes to global avian migrations. Some arctic‐nesting species may shorten their migration distance as warmer temperatures allow them to winter closer to their high‐latitude breeding grounds. However, such decisions are not without risks, since this intensifies pressure on resources when they are used for greater periods of time. In this study, we used an individual‐based model to predict how future changes in food abundance, winter ice coverage, and human disturbance could impact an Arctic/sub‐Arctic breeding goose species, black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans, Lawrence 1846), and their primary food source, common eelgrass (Zostera marina L.), at the Izembek Lagoon complex in southwest Alaska. Brant use the site during fall and spring migrations, and increasingly, for the duration of winter. The model was validated by comparing predictions to empirical observations of proportion of geese surviving, proportion of geese emigrating, mean duration of stay, mean rate of mass gain/loss, percentage of time spent feeding, number of bird days, peak population numbers, and distribution across the complex. The model predicted that reductions >50% of the current decadal (2007–2015) mean of eelgrass biomass, which have been observed in some years, or increases in the number of brant, could lead to a reduction in the proportion of birds that successfully migrate to their breeding grounds from the site. The model also predicted that access to eelgrass in lagoons other than Izembek was critical for overwinter survival and spring migration of brant, if overall eelgrass biomass was 50% of the decadal mean biomass. Geese were typically predicted to be more vulnerable to environmental change during winter and spring, when eelgrass biomass is lower, and thermoregulatory costs for the geese are higher than in fall. We discuss the consequences of these predictions for goose population trends in the face of natural and human drivers of change.