1. A new framework for multi-site stochastic rainfall generator based on empirical orthogonal function analysis and Hilbert-Huang transform
- Author
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Lingfeng Zhou, Yaobin Meng, and Karim C. Abbaspour
- Subjects
Spatial correlation ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Autocorrelation ,0207 environmental engineering ,Empirical orthogonal functions ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,Standard deviation ,Skewness ,Parametric model ,Statistical physics ,Spatial dependence ,020701 environmental engineering ,Extreme value theory ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Water Science and Technology ,Mathematics - Abstract
Weather generators (WGs) are tools that create synthetic weather data, which are statistically similar to the observed data. Considering the limitations of most rainfall generators to preserve satisfactorily the fundamental statistical properties (e.g., spatial and temporal coherence) simultaneously, we propose a new framework for multisite rainfall generation. The framework consists of three main components: (1) a spatiotemporal rainfall field, described as spatial modes and their corresponding temporal evolution based on empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOFA). (2) The time series of these spatial modes, decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with characteristic frequencies (periods) using Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT). (3) Stochastic simulation (SS), achieved by assigning random phases for the specific IMFs. The current model, EHS ( E OFA + H HT + S S), is compared with two other typical multi-site rainfall generators, MulGETS (parametric model) and KNN (non-parametric model) for a network of 12 stations in Xiang River basin, China. These three models are assessed based on their ability to simulate sequences with statistical attributes that are similar to those observed. We compare the basic statistics (mean, standard deviation, skewness), extreme value characteristics (95th percentile and maximum), spatial dependence (spatial correlation and spatial continuity ratio), and temporal dependence statistic (autocorrelation, wet/dry spells, and low-frequency variability). The results show that EHS rainfall generator has a similar capacity as KNN model in reproducing the spatial structure of the original rainfall field, and has a greater ability than MulGETS and KNN model to preserve the historical temporal statistics, especially the autocorrelation at various time scales and low-frequency variability. Overall, EHS is a useful model for generating realistic multi-site rainfall field and can be expected to generate plausible scenarios for impact studies.
- Published
- 2019