1. A Time Series Prediction Approach Based on Hybrid Tuning for Database Performance Indicator in AIOps
- Author
-
Xiaoling Wang, Chengfeng Han, Huanyu Gao, Zhuping Yuan, Xiaofang Zhang, and Ning Li
- Subjects
Computer science ,computer.software_genre ,01 natural sciences ,050105 experimental psychology ,Database tuning ,prophet ,010104 statistics & probability ,intelligent operation and maintenance ,Cloud database ,0501 psychology and cognitive sciences ,Autoregressive integrated moving average ,0101 mathematics ,Time series ,Motor vehicles. Aeronautics. Astronautics ,05 social sciences ,General Engineering ,TL1-4050 ,database performance monitor ,arima ,Data mining ,Performance indicator ,Data pre-processing ,time series ,Database connection ,computer ,Model building - Abstract
One of the most important applications of the intelligent operation and maintenance of a cloud database is its trend prediction of key performance indicators (KPI), such as disk use, memory use, etc. We propose a method named AutoPA4DB (Auto Prophet and ARIMA for Database) to predict the trend of the KPIs of the cloud database based on the Prophet model and the ARIMA model. Our AutoPA4DB method includes data preprocessing, model building, parameter tuning and optimization. We employ the weighted MAPE coverage to measure its accuracy and use 6 industrial datasets including 10 KPIs to compare the AutoPA4DB method with other three time-series trend prediction algorithms. The experimental results show that our AutoPA4DB method performs best in predicting monotonic variation data, e.g.disk use trend prediction. But it is unstable in predicting oscillatory variation data; for example, it is acceptable in memory use trend prediction but has poor accuracy in predicting the number of database connection trends.
- Published
- 2020