1. A New Short-Term Prediction Method for Estimation of the Evaporation Duct Height
- Author
-
Chaolei Li, Hanqing Shi, Jun Bao, Yanbo Mai, Zheng Sheng, and Qixiang Liao
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,General Computer Science ,Mean squared error ,Population ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Evolutionary algorithm ,Chaotic ,Evaporation duct ,02 engineering and technology ,short-term prediction ,01 natural sciences ,General Materials Science ,Time series ,support vector regression ,education ,021101 geological & geomatics engineering ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Mathematics ,education.field_of_study ,Artificial neural network ,General Engineering ,Darwinian evolutionary algorithm ,Mean absolute percentage error ,nonlinear chaotic time series ,back propagation neural network ,lcsh:Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering ,Algorithm ,lcsh:TK1-9971 ,Smoothing - Abstract
Evaporation duct is a kind of chaotic phenomenon over the ocean. In this paper, a new nonlinear prediction algorithm, the Darwinian evolutionary algorithm (DEA), is introduced to obtain the specific nonlinear formula $P(\cdot)$ of the chaotic phenomenon. Based on Darwinian natural selection and survival theory, the method first selects a suitable training set of samples, and then produces an initial population before going through an evolutionary process of selection, reproduction and mutation until the optimal individual is found. Finally, a specific expression for a nonlinear chaotic time series is obtained, which can realize the short-term prediction of evaporation duct height (EDH) quickly and accurately. After that, the DEA, the support vector regression (SVR), and the back propagation (BP) neural network were applied to predict the EDH which were formed over the ocean by using sounding data. After interpolation and smoothing of the original data, we selected the first 250 data as training samples and the last 115 data as test samples to test the effect of the EDA algorithm. The results showed that the root mean squared error (RMSE) for the DEA was about 7% less than that of the SVR and 10% less than that of BP neural network; the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the DEA was about 9% less than that of the SVR and 15% less than that of BP neural network. In addition, the DEA obtained, for the first time, a nonlinear expression for EDH, which provides an important reference for future research on the evaporation ducts.
- Published
- 2020