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In their recent paper, Huang et al. (1) have amassed a fascinating time-series of xylem tissue formation across 826 individual trees, spanning 21 species and 79 Northern Hemisphere locations. Like many other aspects of plant growth, wood formation shows strong seasonality, but very little is known about the environmental triggers for seasonal growth resumption. With wood absorbing ∼15% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions annually, this extensive dataset provides an exciting opportunity to refine earth system models, but it does not provide compelling evidence that photoperiod is the dominant season cue. The crux of Huang et al.’s conclusions are derived from their observed positive relationship between the day of year of wood formation (DOYwf) and the photoperiod on the day of year of wood formation (Photoperiodwf), using an analysis that relies heavily on R 2 values (ref. 1, figures 3, S5, and S7). The authors used the response variable (DOYwf) to calculate several of their predictor variables: Photoperiodwf, cumulative forcing (FUwf), and chilling (CUwf) at DOYwf. There are two major problems with this approach. First, it can lead to regression models that appear to fit exceptionally well for the wrong reasons. Where photoperiod covaries positively with day of … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: sarah.elmendorf{at}colorado.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.

As the Arctic warms, vegetation is responding, and satellite measures indicate widespread greening at high latitudes. This ‘greening of the Arctic’ is among the world’s most important large-scale ecological responses to global climate change. However, a consensus is emerging that the underlying causes and future dynamics of so-called Arctic greening and browning trends are more complex, variable and inherently scale-dependent than previously thought. Here we summarize the complexities of observing and interpreting high-latitude greening to identify priorities for future research. Incorporating satellite and proximal remote sensing with in-situ data, while accounting for uncertainties and scale issues, will advance the study of past, present and future Arctic vegetation change. acceptedVersion

Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) allow observation and reporting of global biodiversity change, but a detailed framework for the empirical derivation of specific EBVs has yet to be developed. Here, we re-examine and refine the previous candidate set of species traits EBVs and show how traits related to phenology, morphology, reproduction, physiology and movement can contribute to EBV operationalization. The selected EBVs express intra-specific trait variation and allow monitoring of how organisms respond to global change. We evaluate the societal relevance of species traits EBVs for policy targets and demonstrate how open, interoperable and machine-readable trait data enable the building of EBV data products. We outline collection methods, meta(data) standardization, reproducible workflows, semantic tools and licence requirements for producing species traits EBVs. An operationalization is critical for assessing progress towards biodiversity conservation and sustainable development goals and has wide implications for data-intensive science in ecology, biogeography, conservation and Earth observation., Sí

Altres ajuts europeus: P.A.W. was additionally supported by the European Union Fourth Environment and Climate Framework Programme (Project Number ENV4-CT970586)P.A.W. was additionally supported by the European Union Fourth Environment and Climate Framework Programme (Project Number ENV4-CT970586). The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations. Spatial temperature-trait relationships were generally strong but soil moisture had a marked influence on the strength and direction of these relationships, highlighting the potentially important influence of changes in water availability on future trait shifts in tundra plant communities. Community height increased with warming across all sites over the past three decades, but other traits lagged far behind predicted rates of change. Our findings highlight the challenge of using space-for-time substitution to predict the functional consequences of future warming and suggest that functions that are tied closely to plant height will experience the most rapid change. They also reveal the strength with which environmental factors shape biotic communities at the coldest extremes of the planet and will help to improve projections of functional changes in tundra ecosystems with climate warming.

Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west—where green-up typically became later—birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences.

The sensitivity of phenology to environmental drivers can vary across geography and species. As such, models developed to predict phenology are typically site- or taxon-specific. Generation of site- and taxon-specific models is limited by the intensive in-situ phenological monitoring effort required to generate sufficient data to parameterize each model. Where in-situ phenological observations exist, the data are often subject to analytical issues due to the limited duration of any individual monitoring program, spotty site- and species- level coverage, lack of standardized methodology, and infrequent or variable census intervals. Together, these characteristics constrain our ability to make phenological inferences outside of select sites and taxa where long-duration, intensive monitoring has occurred. In this study, we leveraged two national, standardized phenology datasets to develop a multi-species and multi-site state-space survival model of the onset of deciduous tree and shrub spring (leaf out) and fall (leaf-color) events across temperate ecoregions of the United States. We used data from two national-scale phenological databases, a 9-year, broadly distributed dataset from the USA National Phenology Network and a 4-year dataset from the National Ecological Observatory Network, to quantify regional and interspecific variation in sensitivity to environmental drivers for both spring and fall leaf phenophases. Spring leaf out was generally promoted by longer days, spring growing degree day accumulation, overwinter chilling, and was suppressed by frost events, whereas fall leaf color was promoted by shorter days and cold accumulation. The sensitivity to most environmental drivers tended to be more variable among species than among the regions as defined here (EPA ecoregions of North America, excluding desert and tropical areas). The results of this study lay the groundwork for incorporating the growing collection of phenological observations into a generalized framework for predicting the transition states for any species, in any location.

Global change drivers influence ecological processes at multiple scales and manifest across most of Earth as changes in biodiversity, biogeochemical cycles, infectious disease incidence, and ecohydrology. Small-scale investigations provide compelling evidence of specific effects of global change on local systems, but are of limited use in modeling complex ecological processes at continental-to-global scales. Long-term observations distributed across a diversity of habitat types are needed to improve the ability to forecast ecological change at large spatial and temporal scales. This special issue introduces the Terrestrial Observation System (TOS) of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), a long-term, continental-scale ecological research platform designed to deliver these large-scale datasets. The TOS measures biodiversity of key biota (soil microbes, insects, plants, small mammals), ecosystem productivity and biogeochemistry, infectious disease dynamics, phenology, and population dynamics. The articles in this special issue describe the scientific rationale for the sampling designs of the TOS, including an overview of protocols, locations, and frequencies of measurements. The science designs are a culmination of design requirements scoped by NEON and the National Science Foundation, best available practices put forth by the scientific community, input from technical working groups, and consideration of logistical and financial constraints by NEON staff. Within each site, measurements have been collocated to the extent possible to optimize linkages among different sampling elements. Integrated analyses of terrestrial observations with sensor-based, imagery, and remote-sensing data collected by other NEON subsystems can facilitate scaling of measured parameters to larger spatial and temporal scales. NEON is designed to collect data for 30 years, and make these data freely available on a public data portal (data.neonscience.org). Samples and specimens will be archived and available to the scientific community upon request. The open access approach to the Observatory will provide users with the resources necessary to map, understand, and predict the effects of global change drivers on ecological processes at a continental scale.

© 2016 Elmendorf et al. Phenology is an integrative science that comprises the study of recurring biological activities or events. In an era of rapidly changing climate, the relationship between the timing of those events and environmental cues such as temperature, snowmelt, water availability, or day length are of particular interest. This article provides an overview of the observer-based plant phenology sampling conducted by the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), the resulting data, and the rationale behind the design. Trained technicians will conduct regular in situ observations of plant phenology at all terrestrial NEON sites for the 30-yr life of the observatory. Standardized and coordinated data across the network of sites can be used to quantify the direction and magnitude of the relationships between phenology and environmental forcings, as well as the degree to which these relationships vary among sites, among species, among phenophases, and through time. Vegetation at NEON sites will also be monitored with tower-based cameras, satellite remote sensing, and annual high-resolution airborne remote sensing. Ground-based measurements can be used to calibrate and improve satellite-derived phenometrics. NEON's phenology monitoring design is complementary to existing phenology research efforts and citizen science initiatives throughout the world and will produce interoperable data. By collocating plant phenology observations with a suite of additional meteorological, biophysical, and ecological measurements (e.g., climate, carbon flux, plant productivity, population dynamics of consumers) at 47 terrestrial sites, the NEON design will enable continental-scale inference about the status, trends, causes, and ecological consequences of phenological change.

Rapid climate warming has been linked to increasing shrub dominance in the Arctic tundra. Research now shows that climate–shrub growth relationships vary spatially and according to site characteristics such as soil moisture and shrub height. Rapid climate warming in the tundra biome has been linked to increasing shrub dominance1,2,3,4. Shrub expansion can modify climate by altering surface albedo, energy and water balance, and permafrost2,5,6,7,8, yet the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. Dendroecological data consisting of multi-decadal time series of annual shrub growth provide an underused resource to explore climate–growth relationships. Here, we analyse circumpolar data from 37 Arctic and alpine sites in 9 countries, including 25 species, and ∼42,000 annual growth records from 1,821 individuals. Our analyses demonstrate that the sensitivity of shrub growth to climate was: (1) heterogeneous, with European sites showing greater summer temperature sensitivity than North American sites, and (2) higher at sites with greater soil moisture and for taller shrubs (for example, alders and willows) growing at their northern or upper elevational range edges. Across latitude, climate sensitivity of growth was greatest at the boundary between the Low and High Arctic, where permafrost is thawing4 and most of the global permafrost soil carbon pool is stored9. The observed variation in climate–shrub growth relationships should be incorporated into Earth system models to improve future projections of climate change impacts across the tundra biome.