1. Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts
- Author
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Chris Huntingford, Alison L. Kay, Simon Wilson, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, David Wallom, Peter A. Stott, Robert Vautard, Ian Ashpole, Jonathan Miller, S. M. Crooks, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Neil Massey, Sarah Sparrow, Jessica Skeggs, Andy Bowery, Rob Lamb, Nathalie Schaller, Richard G. Jones, Tim Legg, Myles R. Allen, Pascal Yiou, Antje Weisheimer, Friederike E. L. Otto, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford, Centre de Recherche en Cancérologie de Lyon (UNICANCER/CRCL), Centre Léon Bérard [Lyon]-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Computing Laboratory (OUCL), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Max-Planck-Institut für Mathematik in den Naturwissenschaften (MPI-MiS), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] (CEH), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Royal United Hospital, Australian Resources Research Centre, Kensington, Yale School of Medicine [New Haven, Connecticut] (YSM), The MITRE corporation, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] ( AOPP ), University of Oxford [Oxford], Centre de Recherche en Cancérologie de Lyon ( CRCL ), Centre Léon Bérard [Lyon]-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 ( UCBL ), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Computing Laboratory ( OUCL ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Max-Planck-Institut für Mathematik in den Naturwissenschaften, Leipzig ( MPI-MATH ), Max-Planck-Institut, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology ( CEH ), Natural Environment Research Council ( NERC ), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] ( CEH ), Met Office Hadley Centre ( MOHC ), Yale School of Medicine, Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Yale University School of Medicine
- Subjects
[ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Hydrological modelling ,0208 environmental biotechnology ,Drainage basin ,02 engineering and technology ,Environmental Science (miscellaneous) ,01 natural sciences ,Meteorology and Climatology ,[ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,Precipitation ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,geography ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,Flood myth ,Flooding (psychology) ,Storm ,6. Clean water ,020801 environmental engineering ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,Snowmelt ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Hydrology ,Social Sciences (miscellaneous) - Abstract
A succession of storms reaching Southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate.
- Published
- 2016