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9 results on '"Department of Geosciences [Tucson]"'

1. Representation of Southern Ocean Properties across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Generations: CMIP3 to CMIP6

Author

R. L. Beadling, Paul J. Goodman, Joellen L. Russell, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lynne D. Talley, Ronald J. Stouffer, Patrick Hyder, Matthew R. Mazloff, Amarjiit Pandde, Helene T. Hewitt, Department of Geosciences [Tucson], University of Arizona, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California-University of California, Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Geosciences [University of Arizona], Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, Coupled model intercomparison project, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010505 oceanography, Ocean current, Wind stress, Forcing (mathematics), Antarctic sea ice, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Geomatic Engineering, 13. Climate action, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Climatology, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, Upwelling, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Climate model, 14. Life underwater, Climate state, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Author(s): Beadling, RL; Russell, JL; Stouffer, RJ; Mazloff, M; Talley, LD; Goodman, PJ; Sallee, JB; Hewitt, HT; Hyder, P; Pandde, Amarjiit | Abstract: AbstractThe air–sea exchange of heat and carbon in the Southern Ocean (SO) plays an important role in mediating the climate state. The dominant role the SO plays in storing anthropogenic heat and carbon is a direct consequence of the unique and complex ocean circulation that exists there. Previous generations of climate models have struggled to accurately represent key SO properties and processes that influence the large-scale ocean circulation. This has resulted in low confidence ascribed to twenty-first-century projections of the state of the SO from previous generations of models. This analysis provides a detailed assessment of the ability of models contributed to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to represent important observationally based SO properties. Additionally, a comprehensive overview of CMIP6 performance relative to CMIP3 and CMIP5 is presented. CMIP6 models show improved performance in the surface wind stress forcing, simulating stronger and less equatorward-biased wind fields, translating into an improved representation of the Ekman upwelling over the Drake Passage latitudes. An increased number of models simulate an Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport within observational uncertainty relative to previous generations; however, several models exhibit extremely weak transports. Generally, the upper SO remains biased warm and fresh relative to observations, and Antarctic sea ice extent remains poorly represented. While generational improvement is found in many metrics, persistent systematic biases are highlighted that should be a priority during model development. These biases need to be considered when interpreting projected trends or biogeochemical properties in this region.

Published
2020
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2. Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols

Author

Olivier Boucher, Dagmar Fläschner, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Timothy Andrews, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas Richardson, Piers M. Forster, Tao Tang, Alf Kirkevåg, Toshihiko Takemura, Viatcheslav Kharin, Gregory Faluvegi, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Øivind Hodnebrog, Jana Sillmann, Trond Iversen, Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell, Camilla Weum Stjern, Matthew Kasoar, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, National University of Defense Technology [China], Duke University [Durham], Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Leeds, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Department of Physics [Imperial College London], Imperial College London, Department of Psychology [York, UK], University of York [York, UK], Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory (ACOML), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Kyushu University [Fukuoka], École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Department of Geosciences [Tucson], École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Department of Geosciences [University of Arizona], and Kyushu University

Subjects
Earth's energy budget, Mediterranean climate, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Forcing (mathematics), HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Chemistry, BLACK CARBON AEROSOLS, chemistry.chemical_compound, FUTURE, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, CMIP5, Sulfate aerosol, Precipitation, Water cycle, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Science & Technology, EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, 15. Life on land, TRENDS, lcsh:QC1-999, CLIMATE RESPONSE, Aerosol, VARIABILITY, 0201 Astronomical And Space Sciences, lcsh:QD1-999, chemistry, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], 13. Climate action, PROJECTIONS, Greenhouse gas, Physical Sciences, SIMULATION, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, 0401 Atmospheric Sciences, lcsh:Physics
Abstract

Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare the modeled dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to individual forcing agents in a set of global climate models (GCMs). Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC) forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, BC appears to reduce precipitation by causing an enhanced positive sea level pressure (SLP) pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation, characterized by higher SLP at midlatitudes and lower SLP at high latitudes. WMGHGs cause a similar SLP change, and both are associated with a northward diversion of the jet stream and storm tracks, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in northern Europe. Though the applied forcings were much larger, if forcings are scaled to those of the historical period of 1901–2010, roughly one-third (31±17 %) of the precipitation decrease would be attributable to global BC forcing with the remainder largely attributable to WMGHGs, whereas global scattering sulfate aerosols would have negligible impacts. Aerosol–cloud interactions appear to have minimal impacts on Mediterranean precipitation in these models, at least in part because many simulations did not fully include such processes; these merit further study. The findings from this study suggest that future BC and WMGHG emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems and the economy in the Mediterranean region.

Published
2018
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3. Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers

Author

Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Trond Iversen, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Dilshad Shawki, Maria Sand, Olivier Boucher, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Dagmar Fläschner, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Toshihiko Takemura, G. Faluvegi, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Thomas Richardson, Timothy Andrews, Gunnar Myhre, Piers M. Forster, Camilla Weum Stjern, Christopher J. Smith, Viatcheslav Kharin, Drew Shindell, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), University of Leeds, Department of Psychology [York, UK], University of York [York, UK], Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geosciences [Tucson], University of Arizona, Duke University [Durham], Kyushu University [Fukuoka], Department of Physics [Imperial College London], Imperial College London, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geosciences, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Department of Geosciences [University of Arizona], and Kyushu University

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, Solar constant, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, SEA-ICE LOSS, Climate change, POLAR AMPLIFICATION, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, MULTIMODEL ASSESSMENT, greenhouse gases, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), medicine, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, VERTICAL STRUCTURE, ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE, Precipitation, TEMPERATURE, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Arctic amplification, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, climate drivers, Science & Technology, Global temperature, STRATOSPHERIC OZONE, AEROSOL, Seasonality, medicine.disease, climate change, Geophysics, Arctic, 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], PRECIPITATION, Greenhouse gas, Physical Sciences, BLACK CARBON, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Polar amplification, Environmental science, 0401 Atmospheric Sciences, 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, aerosols
Abstract

The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of short-lived climate forcers, make it necessary to understand the influence of each climate driver on the Arctic. In the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project, 10 global climate models perturbed five different climate drivers separately (CO2, CH4, the solar constant, black carbon, and SO4). We show that the annual mean Arctic amplification (defined as the ratio between Arctic and the global mean temperature change) at the surface is similar between climate drivers, ranging from 1.9 (± an intermodel standard deviation of 0.4) for the solar to 2.3 (±0.6) for the SO4 perturbations, with minimum amplification in the summer for all drivers. The vertical and seasonal temperature response patterns indicate that the Arctic is warmed through similar mechanisms for all climate drivers except black carbon. For all drivers, the precipitation change per degree global temperature change is positive in the Arctic, with a seasonality following that of the Arctic amplification. We find indications that SO4 perturbations produce a slightly stronger precipitation response than the other drivers, particularly compared to CO2. ©2019. The Authors.

Published
2019
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4. Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

Author

Benjamin I. Cook, Gavin A. Schmidt, Shaun Lovejoy, James D. Annan, Louis Bruno Tremblay, Camille Risi, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Masa Kageyama, Axel Timmermann, Sandy P. Harrison, Bronwen Konecky, Pascal Yiou, Patrick J. Bartlein, Eric Guilyardi, Michael E. Mann, Julia C. Hargreaves, Allegra N. LeGrande, Diane M. Thompson, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), University of Oregon [Eugene], NCAS-Climate [Reading], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Sciences (SAGES), University of Reading (UOR), Macquarie University, Centre for Past Climate Change (CPCC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Brown University, McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System, Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Department of Geosciences [University of Arizona], University of Arizona, University of Hawaii, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States, Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), and Department of Geosciences [Tucson]

Subjects
010506 paleontology, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, lcsh:Environmental protection, Stratigraphy, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Forcing (mathematics), 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Environmental pollution, Paleoclimatology, Sea ice, Hindcast, lcsh:TD169-171.8, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, Global and Planetary Change, Coupled model intercomparison project, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Paleontology, Last Glacial Maximum, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, lcsh:TD172-193.5, Environmental science, Climate model
Abstract

This paper arose from a workshop at the Bishop Museum Honolulu in March 2012 organised by the PAGES CLIVAR Intersection Panel. ABSTRACT: We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present ka) the mid Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi model ensemble of palaeo simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non stationarity making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

Published
2018
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5. The Roussillon Basin (S. France): A case-study to distinguish local and regional events between 6 and 3 Ma

Author

Stéphane Molliex, Cédric Duvail, Jean-Pierre Suc, Jean-Loup Rubino, Neil D. Opdyke, Christian Gorini, David Besson, Speranta-Maria Popescu, Georges Clauzon, Everett H. Lindsay, Damien Do Couto, Paul Le Strat, François Bache, Bilal U. Haq, Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 19 chemin du Champ Juvénal, GEOTER SAS, FUGRO Group, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Geneva], Université de Genève = University of Geneva (UNIGE), Institut des Sciences de la Terre de Paris (iSTeP), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Domaines Océaniques (LDO), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers-Institut d'écologie et environnement-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), GNS Science, DREAL Centre, Department of Geosciences [University of Arizona], University of Arizona, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Total, CST JF–TG/ISS, Total, CST JF–TG/ISS - Pau, GeoBioStratData.Consulting, National Science Foundation, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Collège de France (CdF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Geneva], University of Geneva [Switzerland], University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Gould-Simpson Building #77, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States, University of Florida [Gainesville], Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), and Department of Geosciences [Tucson]

Subjects
geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Stratigraphy, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Geology, Olistostrome, Sedimentary basin, Structural basin, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Graben, Paleontology, Geophysics, Mediterranean sea, 13. Climate action, Economic Geology, Sedimentary rock, 14. Life underwater, Chronostratigraphy, Sea level, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; The Roussillon Basin is a non-silled Miocene sedimentary basin filling a late Oligocene–early Miocene graben. The basin was intensively impacted by the 2 Messinian fluvial erosion, as evidenced in exposed sections, in seismic profiles and in deep boreholes drilled for hydrocarbon exploration. As the basin was open to the Mediterranean Sea, the huge drop in sea level at the peak of the Messinian Salinity Crisis is clearly recorded, along with the subsequent sudden marine reflooding and the resulting prograding sedimentary filling, particularly in Gilbert-type fan deltas. Here, the Messinian Erosional Surface (MES) is accurately mapped in a high-resolution document, which corrects the confusion resulting from the set of 1:50,000 scale regional maps. Aim of the 3D reconstruction of the MES is to modernize geological mapping, a crucial challenge for Mediterranean and peripheral areas. Thanks to a reliable chronostratigraphy provided by planktonic foraminifers, calcareous nannofossils, micro-and macro-mammal remains, paleomagnetism and a 10 Be cosmogenic nuclide-derived study, our reconstruction is one of the most comprehensive models of changes in sea level from 6 to 3 Ma. After the marine reflooding of the Mediterranean Basin at 5.46 Ma, the fluctuations in sea level recorded in the Roussillon Basin were forced by global changes. Following reflooding, the Prades large olistostrome collapsed prepared by the previous exhumation along the Canigou fault. The olistostrome is a good example of a local accident resulting from Messinian events. The exceptional changes in sea level at the peak of the Messinian Salinity Crisis deeply marked the Roussillon Basin, momentarily overprinting the Pyrenean orogenesis. Key words: Roussillon Basin – Messinian subaerial erosion –Zanclean sedimentary filling –Prades olistostrome.

Published
2015
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6. An assessment of global and regional sea level for years 1993-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations

Author

Sophie Valcke, David M. Holland, Michael Winton, Xuebin Zhang, David Salas y Mélia, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Mats Bentsen, Sergey Danilov, Richard J. Greatbatch, Eric P. Chassignet, William G. Large, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Jianhua Lu, Stephen M. Griffies, Paul Goddard, A. J. George Nurser, Jens Schröter, Daohua Bi, Riccardo Farneti, Simon J. Marsland, Jianjun Yin, Petteri Uotila, Helge Drange, Anne-Marie Tréguier, Akhilesh Mishra, Katja Lorbacher, Bonita L. Samuels, Erik Behrens, Qiang Wang, Arne Biastoch, Catia M. Domingues, Aurore Voldoire, Yu-Heng Tseng, Paul J. Durack, Mehmet Ilicak, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Dmitry Sidorenko, Alexandra Bozec, Susan C. Bates, Jaime B. Palter, Elodie Fernandez, Claus W. Böning, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] ( NCAR ), GEOMAR - Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] ( GEOMAR ), Uni Research Climate, Uni Research Ltd, Center for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorolgy, Center for Acean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies ( COAPS ), Florida State University, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung ( AWI ), University of Bergen ( UIB ), International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique ( CERFACS ), CERFACS, New York University [New York], National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] ( NOC ), University of Southampton [Southampton], Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique ( CNRM-GAME ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), McGill University, Laboratoire de physique des océans ( LPO ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD ) -Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer ( IFREMER ) -Université de Brest ( UBO ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] ( MRI ), Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA ), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research ( CSIRO ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] ( CSIRO ), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Geosciences [Tucson], Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Florida State University [Tallahassee] (FSU), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), University of Bergen (UiB), Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), New York University [New York] (NYU), NYU System (NYU), National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Laboratoire de physique des océans (LPO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO), and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO)

Subjects
Arctic sea ice decline, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, CORE global ocean-ice simulations, Ocean gyre, Steric sea level, Computer Science (miscellaneous), Sea level, 14. Life underwater, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Momentum (technical analysis), geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, [ SDU.STU.OC ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, 010505 oceanography, Advection, Global sea level, Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology, Ocean heat content, 13. Climate action, North Atlantic oscillation, Climatology, Environmental science, Thermohaline circulation
Abstract

Highlights: • Global mean sea level simulated in interannual CORE simulations. • Regional sea level patterns simulated in interannual CORE simulations. • Theoretical foundation for analysis of global mean sea level and regional patterns. Abstract: We provide an assessment of sea level simulated in a suite of global ocean-sea ice models using the interannual CORE atmospheric state to determine surface ocean boundary buoyancy and momentum fluxes. These CORE-II simulations are compared amongst themselves as well as to observation-based estimates. We focus on the final 15 years of the simulations (1993–2007), as this is a period where the CORE-II atmospheric state is well sampled, and it allows us to compare sea level related fields to both satellite and in situ analyses. The ensemble mean of the CORE-II simulations broadly agree with various global and regional observation-based analyses during this period, though with the global mean thermosteric sea level rise biased low relative to observation-based analyses. The simulations reveal a positive trend in dynamic sea level in the west Pacific and negative trend in the east, with this trend arising from wind shifts and regional changes in upper 700 m ocean heat content. The models also exhibit a thermosteric sea level rise in the subpolar North Atlantic associated with a transition around 1995/1996 of the North Atlantic Oscillation to its negative phase, and the advection of warm subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. Sea level trends are predominantly associated with steric trends, with thermosteric effects generally far larger than halosteric effects, except in the Arctic and North Atlantic. There is a general anti-correlation between thermosteric and halosteric effects for much of the World Ocean, associated with density compensated changes.

Published
2014
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7. Eocene Tibetan plateau remnants preserved in the northwest Himalaya

Author

Stéphane Guillot, Jérémie Van Melle, Peter W. Reiners, Mohammad Latif, Peter van der Beek, Stefan Nicolescu, Arnaud Pêcher, Laboratoire de Géodynamique des Chaines Alpines (LGCA), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-PRES Université de Grenoble-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-PRES Université de Grenoble-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR), Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, University of Arizona, Geological Survey of Pakistan, Department of Geosciences, Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Department of Geosciences [Tucson]

Subjects
[SDU.STU.TE]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Tectonics, geography, Plateau, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 15. Life on land, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Thermochronology, Paleontology, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Thermal history modelling, Dissected plateau, [SDU.STU.GM]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geomorphology, Geomorphology, Geology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; The northwest Himalaya shows strongly contrasting relief. Deeply incised mountain ranges that are characterized by extremely rapid exhumation1, 2, 3 and some of the highest peaks in the world are in contrast with high-elevation, low-relief areas such as the Deosai plateau in northern Pakistan, which lies at an altitude of 4,000 m. The origin and evolution of such plateau regions at the convergence of the most active continental collision in the world remain elusive. Here we report low-temperature thermochronology data from the Deosai plateau and use thermal history modelling to show that the plateau has undergone continuous slow denudation at rates below 250 m Myr-1 for the past 35 Myr at least. This finding suggests tectonic and morphologic stability of the plateau since at least Eocene times, only 15–20 Myr after the onset of the India–Asia collision. Our work contradicts the hypothesis that widespread low-relief surfaces in the northwest Himalaya result from efficient kilometre-scale glacial erosion during Quaternary times4. We show that similarly stable surfaces exist throughout the entire northwest Himalaya and share common morphologic characteristics and denudation histories, which are comparable to those of the western Tibetan plateau. Our results suggest that these surfaces are preserved remnants of an Eocene southwestern Tibetan plateau that was more extensive than today.

Published
2009
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8. A semi-analytical solution for transient streaming potentials associated with confined aquifer pumping tests

Author

André Revil, Kristopher L. Kuhlman, Bwalya Malama, Center of investigation of the Shallow Subsurface, Department of Geophysics [Golden CO], Colorado School of Mines, Laboratoire de Géophysique Interne et Tectonophysique (LGIT), Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussées (LCPC)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geosciences [Tucson], University of Arizona, Carlsbad Programs Group, Sandia National Laboratories - Corporation, Supported in part by EPA grant X-960041-01-0, Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussées (LCPC)-Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-PRES Université de Grenoble-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-PRES Université de Grenoble-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR), and Department of Geosciences

Subjects
geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Specific storage, Soil science, Aquifer, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, 6. Clean water, Streaming current, Hydrogeophysics, Hydraulic head, Geophysics, Hydraulic conductivity, Aquifer test, Geochemistry and Petrology, Hydraulic tomography, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Slug test, Electrical properties, Geotechnical engineering, Hydrology, Geology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; We consider the transient streaming potential response due to pumping from a confined aquifer through a fully penetrating line sink. Confined aquifer flow is assumed to occur without fluid leakage from the confining units. However, since confining units are typically clayey, and hence more electrically conductive than the aquifer, they are treated as non-insulating in our three-layer conceptual model. We develop a semi-analytical solution for the transient streaming potentials response of the aquifer and the confining units to pumping of the aquifer. The solution is fitted to field measurements of streaming potentials associated with an aquifer test performed at a site located near Montalto Uffugo, in the region of Calabria in Southern Italy. This yields an average hydraulic conductivity that compares well to the estimate obtained using only hydraulic head data. Specific storage is estimated with greater estimation uncertainty than hydraulic conductivity and is significantly smaller than that estimated from hydraulic head data. This indicates that specific storage may be a more difficult parameter to estimate from streaming potential data. The mismatch may also be due to the fact that only recovery streaming potential data were used here whereas head data for both production and recovery were used. The estimate from head data may also constitute an upper bound since head data were not corrected for pumping and observation wellbore storage. Estimated values of the electrical conductivities of the confining units compare well to those estimated using electrical resistivity tomography. Our work indicates that, where observation wells are unavailable to provide more direct estimates, streaming potential data collected at land surface may, in principle, be used to provide preliminary estimates of aquifer hydraulic conductivity and specific storage, where the latter is estimated with greater uncertainty than the former.

Published
2009
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9. The History of Climate Dynamics in the Late Quaternary

Author

Keith Alverson, L. Labeyrie, Thomas F. Stocker, Julia E. Cole, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Paléocéanographie (PALEOCEAN), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geosciences [Tucson], University of Arizona, PAGES International Project Office, Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geosciences [University of Arizona], and Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Last Glacial Maximum, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, North Atlantic Deep Water, Quaternary science, Climate change, Forcing (mathematics), Thermohaline Circulation, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Earth system science, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Paleoclimatology, Thermohaline circulation, Benthic Foraminifera, North Atlantic Oscillation, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Quaternary, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Geology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; Climate variability, defined as changes in integral properties of the atmosphere, is only one small realization of the workings of the much larger earth system. Parts of the other components (ice, ocean, continents) have much slower response times (decadal to millennia). True understanding of climate dynamics and prediction of future changes will come only with an understanding of the workings of the earth system as a whole, and over both the past and present time scales. Such understanding requires, as a first step, identification of the patterns of climate change on those time scales, and their relationships to known forcing. As a second step, models must be developed to simulate the evolution of the climate system on these same time scales. Within the last few decades, a significant number of long time series have become available that describe paleoclimate variability with resolution better than about 1000 years. Global general circulation models lag however, in that they have yet to be successfully integrated for more than a few hundred years.

Published
2003
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