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Author(s): Gaynor, KM; Daskin, JH; Rich, LN; Brashares, JS | Abstract: As local and global disturbances reshape African savannas, an understanding of how animal communities recover and respond to landscape features can inform conservation and restoration. Here, we explored the spatial ecology of a wildlife community in Gorongosa National Park, Mozambique, where conservation efforts have fostered the recovery of large mammal populations after their near-extirpation during Mozambique’s civil war. We deployed a grid of 60 camera traps and used a hierarchical, multi-species occupancy modeling approach to examine patterns of occupancy and its environmental and anthropogenic correlates for different functional groups and species. Our survey provides strong evidence that wildlife in Gorongosa is recovering. Throughout the study area, modeled species richness was comparable to richness in less-disturbed savanna systems in Tanzania and Botswana, and exceeded estimates of richness from a mixed-use landscape outside the park and from postwar (1997–2002) aerial surveys. However, the mammal community in Gorongosa differs from prewar conditions and from those of more intact systems, with few large carnivores, low occupancy probabilities for large ungulate species that were dominant prior to the war, and high occupancy for other ungulates that are now ubiquitous. Associations with tree cover varied among species and guilds. Contrary to our expectation, there was no effect of lake proximity on community and group-level occupancy, and previously dominant floodplain ungulate species now occupy more wooded areas. Mammals were more likely to occupy areas that burned frequently, as post-fire vegetation regrowth provides high-quality forage, highlighting the importance of Gorongosa’s fire regime. Occupancy was lower in areas with more illegal hunting, and higher closer to roads, potentially because roads were established in areas of high wildlife density and facilitate animal movement. Continued multi-species monitoring in Gorongosa can shed light on the different recovery trajectories of ungulate species and the consequences of ongoing large carnivore restoration, guiding conservation interventions.

Carnivore predation on livestock is a complex management and policy challenge, yet it is also intrinsically an ecological interaction between predators and prey. Human-wildlife interactions occur in socioecological systems in which human and environmental processes are closely linked. However, underlying human-wildlife conflict and key to unpacking its complexity are concrete and identifiable ecological mechanisms that lead to predation events. To better understand how ecological theory accords with interactions between wild predators and domestic prey, we developed a framework to describe ecological drivers of predation on livestock. We based this framework on foundational ecological theory and current research on interactions between predators and domestic prey. We used this framework to examine ecological mechanisms (e.g., density-mediated effects, behaviorally mediated effects, and optimal foraging theory) through which specific management interventions operate, and we analyzed the ecological determinants of failure and success of management interventions in 3 case studies: snow leopards (Panthera uncia), wolves (Canis lupus), and cougars (Puma concolor). The varied, context-dependent successes and failures of the management interventions in these case studies demonstrated the utility of using an ecological framework to ground research and management of carnivore-livestock conflict. Mitigation of human-wildlife conflict appears to require an understanding of how fundamental ecological theories work within domestic predator-prey systems.Un Marco de Trabajo Ecológico para Contextualizar el Conflicto Carnívoro - Ganado Resumen La depredación del ganado por carnívoros es un reto complejo para el manejo y las políticas, a pesar de que es intrínsecamente una interacción ecológica entre depredadores y presas. Las interacciones entre humanos y la fauna ocurren en sistemas socio-ecológicos en los que los humanos y los procesos ambientales están conectados estrechamente. Sin embargo, el conflicto humano - fauna subyacente y la clave para desenredar su complejidad son mecanismos ecológicos complejos e identificables que resultan en eventos de depredación. Para tener un mejor entendimiento sobre cómo la teoría ecológica armoniza con las interacciones entre los depredadores silvestres y la presa doméstica, desarrollamos un marco de trabajo para describir las causantes ecológicas de la depredación del ganado. Basamos este marco de trabajo en las principales teorías ecológicas y las investigaciones actuales sobre las interacciones entre los depredadores y las presas domésticas. Usamos este marco de trabajo para examinar los mecanismos ecológicos (es decir, los efectos mediados por la densidad, los efectos mediados por el comportamiento, y la teoría del forrajeo óptimo) mediante los cuales operan ciertas intervenciones específicas de manejo y analizamos las determinantes ecológicas del fracaso y el éxito de las intervenciones de manejo en tres estudios de caso: el leopardo de las nieves (Panthera uncia), el lobo (Canis lupus), y el puma (Puma concolor). Los éxitos y fracasos variados y dependientes del contexto que sufrieron las intervenciones de manejo en estos estudios de caso demostraron la utilidad del uso de un marco de trabajo ecológico para aterrizar la investigación y el manejo del conflicto carnívoro - ganado. La mitigación del conflicto humano - fauna parece requerir de un entendimiento sobre cómo funcionan las teorías ecológicas fundamentales dentro del sistema doméstico depredador - presa.食肉动物对家畜的捕食是管理和政策上面临的一项复杂挑战, 但它本质上也是捕食者和猎物的生态互作问题。人兽互作发生在人类与环境过程紧密联系的社会生态系统中; 然而, 人兽冲突及揭示其复杂性的本质则是导致捕食事件发生的、具体明确的生态学机制。为了更好地理解生态学理论如何反映野生捕食者和家养猎物之间的互作, 我们开发了一个框架来描述捕食家畜的生态驱动力。这个框架基于基础生态学理论和捕食者与家养猎物互作的研究现状。我们用这个框架分析了采取特定管理干预措施所依赖的生态学机制 (如密度调控作用、行为调控作用和最优觅食理论), 并对决定管理干预成败与否的生态学因素进行了三个案例分析, 分别涉及雪豹 (Panthera uncia) 、灰狼 (Canis lupus) 和美洲狮 (Puma concolor) 。这些案例中管理干预的成败取决于具体情境, 这显示了我们的生态框架在开展食肉动物与家畜冲突的研究和管理中的有效性。我们认为, 减缓人兽冲突需要了解基础生态学理论在捕食者-家养猎物系统中的作用原理。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

Author(s): Rich, LN; Furnas, BJ; Newton, DS; Brashares, JS | Abstract: Aim: Maintaining biodiversity in the face of land use and climate change is a paramount challenge, particularly when distributions of many species remain incompletely known. Emerging technologies help address this data deficiency by facilitating the collection of spatially explicit data for multiple species from multiple taxa. In this study, we combine acoustic and visual sensor surveys to inform conservation and land use planning in an area experiencing rapid climate and land use change. Location: Mojave Desert, California, United States. Methods: We deployed camera traps and acoustic detectors at 210 sites between March and July 2016. We identified photographic detections of mammals and acoustic recordings of songbirds to the species level and used multispecies occupancy models to estimate and evaluate species' occupancy probabilities. We then extrapolated model results to the region and forecasted how projected climate and land use changes might affect species' occupancy probabilities in 50nyears. Lastly, we identified areas with high conservation value (i.e., high relative species richness) now and in 50nyears, and related the distributions of these areas to land use designations. Results: We detected 15 mammal and 68 songbird species. At the community level, occupancy decreased with increasing temperatures and distances to woodlands. We forecasted that occupancy probabilities and areas with high conservation value would decline in 50nyears due to projected increases in maximum temperatures and identified that up to 43%, 24% and 27% of land designated for renewable energy development, recreation and military activities, respectively, encompassed these high value areas. Main conclusions: Cooler areas close to woodlands and water are of high conservation value to mammals and songbirds in the Mojave. These areas will become increasingly limited with changing climate, however, making their protection from human disturbance imperative. We encourage continued use of visual and acoustic sensors across large spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales as tools to inform land use and wildlife conservation.

Author(s): Grinath, JB; Larios, L; Prugh, LR; Brashares, JS; Suding, KN | Abstract: Understanding processes that determine biodiversity is a fundamental challenge in ecology. At the landscape scale, physical alteration of ecosystems by organisms, called ecosystem engineering, enhances biodiversity worldwide by increasing heterogeneity in resource conditions and enhancing species coexistence across engineered and non-engineered habitats. Engineering–diversity relationships can vary along environmental gradients due to changes in the amount of physical structuring created by ecosystem engineering, but it is unclear how this variation is influenced by the responsiveness of non-structural abiotic properties to engineering. Here we show that environmental gradients determine the capacity for engineering to alter resource availability and species diversity, independent of the magnitude of structural change produced by engineering. We created an experimental rainfall gradient in an arid grassland where rodents restructure soils by constructing large, long-lasting burrows. We found that greater rainfall increased water availability and productivity in both burrow and inter-burrow habitats, causing a decline in local (alpha) plant diversity within both of these habitats. However, increased rainfall also resulted in greater differences in soil resources between burrow and inter-burrow habitats, which increased species turnover (beta diversity) across habitats and stabilized landscape-level (gamma) diversity. These responses occurred regardless of rodent presence and without changes in the extent of physical alteration of soils by rodents. Our results suggest that environmental gradients can influence the effects of ecosystem engineering in maintaining biodiversity via resource heterogeneity and species turnover. In an era of rapid environmental change, accounting for this interaction may be critical to conservation and management.

The fencing of protected areas is increasing worldwide. However, the implementation of fences for conservation has outpaced scientific assessment of their effectiveness, non-target impacts, and long-term costs. We assessed landscape predictors of fence crossing sites and employed camera traps over a one-year period to investigate wildlife responses to a conservation fence around Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya. Specifically, we measured the impact of the fence on wild mammal movement, and the temporal impacts of fence maintenance on wildlife crossings and behavior. Cameras captured more than 65,000 detections of animals approaching fences, with 3626 observed crossings over 2818 trap nights at 19 sites. Using these data, we developed a guide to classifying fence-specific mammal behaviors. Thirty-eight wild mammal species approached known weak points in the fence, and 27 species were recorded crossing the fence. No single environmental variable predicted detection or fence crossing points for all species, but seasonality, human activity, habitat visibility, and proximity to an adjacent protected area were each correlated with species-specific crossing locations. Additionally, breaches of repaired fence-crossing locations occurred within days of maintenance. We conclude that popular, ‘one-size-fits-all’, conservation fence designs may be ineffective and costly for restraining movement of many wildlife species. We recommend that those deploying conservation fences start with clearly articulated management goals, that fence maintenance be informed by taxa-specific tendencies to breach fences, and that managers consider the strategic creation of wildlife corridors, overpasses, or ungulate-proof fences to link fenced protected areas with surrounding habitat.

Human activity and land use change impact every landscape on Earth, driving declines in many animal species while benefiting others. Species ecological and life history traits may predict success in human-dominated landscapes such that only species with "winning" combinations of traits will persist in disturbed environments. However, this link between species traits and successful coexistence with humans remains obscured by the complexity of anthropogenic disturbances and variability among study systems. We compiled detection data for 24 mammal species from 61 populations across North America to quantify the effects of (1) the direct presence of people and (2) the human footprint (landscape modification) on mammal occurrence and activity levels. Thirty-three percent of mammal species exhibited a net negative response (i.e., reduced occurrence or activity) to increasing human presence and/or footprint across populations, whereas 58% of species were positively associated with increasing disturbance. However, apparent benefits of human presence and footprint tended to decrease or disappear at higher disturbance levels, indicative of thresholds in mammal species' capacity to tolerate disturbance or exploit human-dominated landscapes. Species ecological and life history traits were strong predictors of their responses to human footprint, with increasing footprint favoring smaller, less carnivorous, faster-reproducing species. The positive and negative effects of human presence were distributed more randomly with respect to species trait values, with apparent winners and losers across a range of body sizes and dietary guilds. Differential responses by some species to human presence and human footprint highlight the importance of considering these two forms of human disturbance separately when estimating anthropogenic impacts on wildlife. Our approach provides insights into the complex mechanisms through which human activities shape mammal communities globally, revealing the drivers of the loss of larger predators in human-modified landscapes.

Author(s): Gaynor, Kaitlyn M; Brashares, Justin S; Gregory, Gillian H; Kurz, David J; Seto, Katherine L; Withey, Lauren S; Fiorella, Kathryn J

An unprecedented era of climatic volatility is altering ecosystems across our planet1. The potential scale, pace and consequences of this global change have been modelled extensively2, yet little empirical research has quantified the impacts of extreme climate events on the composition of contemporary ecological communities. Here, we quantified the responses of 423 sympatric species of plants, arthropods, birds, reptiles and mammals to California’s drought of 2012–2015—the driest period in the past 1,200 years3 for this global biodiversity hotspot. Plants were most responsive to one-year water deficits, whereas vertebrates responded to longer-term deficits, and extended drought had the greatest impact on carnivorous animals. Locally rare species were more likely to increase in numbers and abundant species were more likely to decline in response to drought, and this negative density dependence was remarkably consistent across taxa and drought durations. Our system-wide analysis reveals that droughts indirectly promote the long-term persistence of rare species by stressing dominant species throughout the food web. These findings highlight processes that shape community structure in highly variable environments and provide insights into whole-community responses to modern climate volatility. California’s 2012–2015 drought is shown to have altered community structure (plants, arthropods, birds, reptiles and mammals), indirectly promoting the long-term persistence of rare species by stressing dominant ones.

International audience

Summary Evaluating landscape connectivity and identifying and protecting corridors for animal movement have become central challenges in applied ecology and conservation. Currently, resource selection analyses are widely used to focus corridor planning where animal movement is predicted to occur. An animal's behavioural state (e.g. foraging, dispersing) is a significant determinant of resource selection patterns, yet has largely been ignored in connectivity assessments. We review 16 years of connectivity studies employing resource selection analysis to evaluate how researchers have incorporated animal behaviour into corridor planning, and highlight promising new approaches for identifying wildlife corridors. To illustrate the importance of behavioural information in such analyses, we present an empirical case study to test behaviour-specific predictions of connectivity with long-distance dispersal movements of African wild dogs Lycaon pictus. We conclude by recommending strategies for developing more realistic connectivity models for future conservation efforts. Our review indicates that most connectivity studies conflate resource selection with connectivity requirements, which may result in misleading estimates of landscape resistance, and lack validation of proposed connectivity models with movement data. Our case study shows that including only directed movement behaviour when measuring resource selection reveals markedly different, and more accurate, connectivity estimates than a model measuring resource selection independent of behavioural state. Synthesis and applications. Our results, using African wild dogs as a case study, suggest that resource selection analyses that fail to consider an animal's behavioural state may be insufficient in targeting movement pathways and corridors for protection. This failure may result in misidentification of wildlife corridors and misallocation of limited conservation resources. Our findings underscore the need for considering patterns of animal movement in appropriate behavioural contexts to ensure the effective application of resource selection analyses for corridor planning.

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Animals experience varying levels of predation risk as they navigate heterogeneous landscapes, and behavioral responses to perceived risk can structure ecosystems. The concept of the landscape of fear has recently become central to describing this spatial variation in risk, perception, and response. We present a framework linking the landscape of fear, defined as spatial variation in prey perception of risk, to the underlying physical landscape and predation risk, and to resulting patterns of prey distribution and antipredator behavior. By disambiguating the mechanisms through which prey perceive risk and incorporate fear into decision making, we can better quantify the nonlinear relationship between risk and response and evaluate the relative importance of the landscape of fear across taxa and ecosystems.

Cross-boundary transfers of nutrients can profoundly shape the ecology of recipient systems. The common hippopotamus, Hippopotamus amphibius, is a significant vector of such subsidies from terrestrial to river ecosystems. We compared river pools with high and low densities of H. amphibius to determine how H. amphibius subsidies shape the chemistry and ecology of aquatic communities. Our study watershed, like many in sub-Saharan Africa, has been severely impacted by anthropogenic water abstraction reducing dry-season flow to zero. We conducted observations for multiple years over wet and dry seasons to identify how hydrological variability influences the impacts of H. amphibius. During the wet season, when the river was flowing, we detected no differences in water chemistry and nutrient parameters between pools with high and low densities of H. amphibius. Likewise, the diversity and abundance of fish and aquatic insect communities were indistinguishable. During the dry season, however, high-density H. amphibius pools differed drastically in almost all measured attributes of water chemistry and exhibited depressed fish and insect diversity and fish abundance compared with low-density H. amphibius pools. Scaled up to the entire watershed, we estimate that H. amphibius in this hydrologically altered watershed reduces dry-season fish abundance and indices of gamma-level diversity by 41% and 16%, respectively, but appears to promote aquatic invertebrate diversity. Widespread human-driven shifts in hydrology appear to redefine the role of H. amphibius, altering their influence on ecosystem diversity and functioning in a fashion that may be more severe than presently appreciated.

Understanding how anthropogenic features affect species' abilities to move within landscapes is essential to conservation planning and requires accurate assessment of resource selection for movement by focal species. Yet, the extent to which an individual's behavioural state (e.g. foraging, resting, commuting) influences resource selection has largely been ignored. Recent advances in Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking technology can fill this gap by associating distinct behavioural states with location data. We investigated the role of behaviour in determining the responses of an endangered species of carnivore, the African wild dog Lycaon pictus, to one of the most widespread forms of landscape alteration globally: road systems. We collected high-resolution GPS and activity data from 13 wild dogs in northern Botswana over a 2-year period. We employed a step selection framework to measure resource selection across three behavioural states identified from activity data (high-speed running, resting and travelling) and across a gradient of habitats and seasons, and compared these outputs to a full model that did not parse for behaviour. The response of wild dogs to roads varied markedly with both the behavioural and the landscape contexts in which roads were encountered. Specifically, wild dogs selected roads when travelling, ignored roads when high-speed running and avoided roads when resting. This distinction was not evident when all movement data were considered together in the full model. When travelling, selection for roads increased in denser vegetative environments, suggesting that roads may enhance movement for this species. Our findings indicate that including behavioural information in resource selection models is critical to understanding wildlife responses to landscape features and suggest that successful application of resource selection analyses to conservation planning requires explicit examination of the behavioural contexts in which movement occurs. Thus, behaviour-specific step selection functions offer a powerful tool for identifying resource selection patterns for animal behaviours of conservation significance.

Nocturnal refuge As the human population grows, there are fewer places for animals to live out their lives independently of our influence. Given our mostly diurnal tendencies, one domain that remains less affected by humans is the night. Gaynor et al. found that across the globe and across mammalian species—from deer to coyotes and from tigers to wild boar—animals are becoming more nocturnal (see the Perspective by Benítez-López). Human activities of all kinds, including nonlethal pastimes such as hiking, seem to drive animals to make use of hours when we are not around. Such changes may provide some relief, but they may also have ecosystem-level consequences. Science , this issue p. 1232 ; see also p. 1185

Background Because empirical studies of animal movement are most-often site- and species-specific, we lack understanding of the level of consistency in movement patterns across diverse taxa, as well as a framework for quantitatively classifying movement patterns. We aim to address this gap by determining the extent to which statistical signatures of animal movement patterns recur across ecological systems. We assessed a suite of movement metrics derived from GPS trajectories of thirteen marine and terrestrial vertebrate species spanning three taxonomic classes, orders of magnitude in body size, and modes of movement (swimming, flying, walking). Using these metrics, we performed a principal components analysis and cluster analysis to determine if individuals organized into statistically distinct clusters. Finally, to identify and interpret commonalities within clusters, we compared them to computer-simulated idealized movement syndromes representing suites of correlated movement traits observed across taxa (migration, nomadism, territoriality, and central place foraging). Results Two principal components explained 70% of the variance among the movement metrics we evaluated across the thirteen species, and were used for the cluster analysis. The resulting analysis revealed four statistically distinct clusters. All simulated individuals of each idealized movement syndrome organized into separate clusters, suggesting that the four clusters are explained by common movement syndrome. Conclusions Our results offer early indication of widespread recurrent patterns in movement ecology that have consistent statistical signatures, regardless of taxon, body size, mode of movement, or environment. We further show that a simple set of metrics can be used to classify broad-scale movement patterns in disparate vertebrate taxa. Our comparative approach provides a general framework for quantifying and classifying animal movements, and facilitates new inquiries into relationships between movement syndromes and other ecological processes. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40462-017-0104-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Individual behavioural specialisation has far-reaching effects on fitness and population persistence. Theory predicts that unconditional site fidelity, that is fidelity to a site independent of past outcome, provides a fitness advantage in unpredictable environments. However, the benefits of alternative site fidelity strategies driving intraspecific variation remain poorly understood and have not been evaluated in different environmental contexts. We show that contrary to expectation, strong and weak site fidelity strategies in migratory northern elephant seals performed similarly over 10 years, but the success of each strategy varied interannually and was strongly mediated by climate conditions. Strong fidelity facilitated stable energetic rewards and low risk, while weak fidelity facilitated high rewards and high risk. Weak fidelity outperformed strong fidelity in anomalous climate conditions, suggesting that the evolutionary benefits of site fidelity may be upended by increasing environmental variability. We highlight how individual behavioural specialisation may modulate the adaptive capacity of species to climate change.

The ecological importance of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) in aquatic ecosystems is becoming increasingly well known. These unique megaherbivores are also likely to have a formative influence on the terrestrial ecosystems in which they forage. In this study, we employed a novel exclosure design to exclude H. amphibius from experimental plots on near-river grasslands. Our three-year implementation of this experiment revealed a substantial influence of H. amphibius removal on both plant communities and soil chemistry. H. amphibius significantly reduced grassland canopy height, increased the leafiness of common grasses, reduced woody plant abundance and size, and increased the concentrations of several soil elements. Many of the soil chemistry changes that we experimentally induced by exclusion of H. amphibius were mirrored in the soil chemistry differences between naturally occurring habitats of frequent (grazing lawns) and infrequent (shrub forest) use by H. amphibius and other grazing herbivores. In contrast to existing hypotheses regarding grazing species, we found that H. amphibius had little effect on local plant species richness. Simultaneous observations of exclosures designed to remove all large herbivores revealed that H. amphibius removal had ecologically significant impacts, but that the removal of all species of large herbivores generated more pronounced impacts than the removal of H. amphibius alone. In aggregate, our results suggest that H. amphibius have myriad effects on their terrestrial habitats that likely improve the quality of forage available for other herbivores. We suggest that ongoing losses of this vulnerable megaherbivore are likely to cause significant ecological change.

1.Climate change is transforming precipitation regimes worldwide. Changes in precipitation regimes are known to have powerful effects on plant productivity, but the consequences of these shifts for the dynamics of ecological communities are poorly understood. This knowledge gap hinders our ability to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. 2.Precipitation may affect fauna through direct effects on physiology, behavior or demography, through plant-mediated indirect effects, or by modifying interactions among species. In this paper, we examined the response of a semi-arid ecological community to a fivefold change in precipitation over seven years. 3.We examined the effects of precipitation on the dynamics of a grassland ecosystem in central California from 2007 to 2013. We conducted vegetation surveys, pitfall trapping of invertebrates, visual surveys of lizards, and capture-mark-recapture surveys of rodents on 30 plots each year. We used structural equation modelling to evaluate the direct, indirect, and modifying effects of precipitation on plants, ants, beetles, orthopterans, kangaroo rats, ground squirrels, and lizards. 4.We found pervasive effects of precipitation on the ecological community. Although precipitation increased plant biomass, direct effects on fauna were often stronger than plant-mediated effects. In addition, precipitation altered the sign or strength of consumer-resource and facilitative interactions among the faunal community such that negative or neutral interactions became positive or vice versa with increasing precipitation. 5.These findings indicate that precipitation influences ecological communities in multiple ways beyond its recognized effects on primary productivity. Stochastic variation in precipitation may weaken the average strength of biotic interactions over time, thereby increasing ecosystem stability and resilience to climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Armed conflict throughout the world's biodiversity hotspots poses a critical threat to conservation efforts. To date, research and policy have focused more on the ultimate outcomes of conflict for wildlife rather than on the ecological, social, and economic processes that create those outcomes. Yet the militarization that accompanies armed conflict, as well as consequent changes in governance, economies, and human settlement, has diverse influences on wildlife populations and habitats. To better understand these complex dynamics, we summarized 144 case studies from around the world and identified 24 distinct pathways linking armed conflict to wildlife outcomes. The most commonly cited pathways reflect changes to institutional and socioeconomic factors, rather than tactical aspects of conflict. Marked differences in the most salient pathways emerge across geographic regions and wildlife taxa. Our review demonstrates that mitigating the negative effects of conflict on biodiversity conservation requires a nuanced understanding of the ways in which conflict affects wildlife populations and communities.

Wildlife harvest and depletion compromise socioecological stability

The establishment of protected areas or parks has become an important tool for wildlife conservation. However, frequent occurrences of human-wildlife conflict at the edges of these parks can undermine their conservation goals. Many African protected areas have experienced concurrent declines of apex predators alongside increases in both baboon abundance and the density of humans living near the park boundary. Baboons then take excursions outside of the park to raid crops for food, conflicting with the human population. We model the interactions of mesopredators (baboons), apex predators and shared prey in the park to analyze how four components affect the proportion of time that mesopredators choose to crop-raid: 1) the presence of apex predators; 2) nutritional quality of the crops; 3) mesopredator "shyness" about leaving the park; and 4) human hunting of mesopredators. We predict that the presence of apex predators in the park is the most effective method for controlling mesopredator abundance, and hence significantly reduces their impact on crops. Human hunting of mesopredators is less effective as it only occurs during crop-raiding excursions. Furthermore, making crops less attractive, for instance by planting crops further from the park boundary or farming less nutritional crops, can reduce the amount of time mesopredators crop-raid., Comment: 23 pages, 8 figures, 2 appendices

Restoration of degraded landscapes has become necessary to reverse the pervasive threats from human exploitation. Restoration requires first the monitoring of progress toward any chosen goals to determine their resilience and persistence, and second to conduct in a comparable adjacent area but with less human impact the restoration of trophic structures and ecosystem processes to act as reference systems (controls) with which we compare the viability of the chosen goal. We present here the rationale and a method for predicting the trajectory of restoration and assessing its progress toward a predetermined state, the endpoint, using a restoration index. This assessment of restoration requires that we know when a predetermined endpoint has been achieved and whether the envisioned community of species and their interactions can be restored. The restoration index can use species’ presence or density, and the rate of change of ecosystem processes. The index applies to trophic levels, functional groups, successional stages, alternative states, and novel ecosystems. Also, our method allows measurement of the resilience of ecosystems to disturbance, a desired property for conservation and management. We provide global examples to illustrate these points.

Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of global efforts to shield wildlife from anthropogenic impacts, yet their effectiveness at protecting wide-ranging species prone to human conflict – notably mammalian carnivores – is increasingly in question. An understanding of carnivore responses to human-induced and natural changes in and around PAs is critical not only to the conservation of threatened carnivore populations, but also to the effective protection of ecosystems in which they play key functional roles. However, an important challenge to assessing carnivore communities is the often infrequent and imperfect nature of survey detections. We applied a novel hierarchical multi-species occupancy model that accounted for detectability and spatial autocorrelation to data from 224 camera trap stations (sampled between October 2006 and January 2009) in order to test hypotheses about extrinsic influences on carnivore community dynamics in a West African protected area (Mole National Park, Ghana). We developed spatially explicit indices of illegal hunting activity, law enforcement patrol effort, prey biomass, and habitat productivity across the park, and used a Bayesian model selection framework to identify predictors of site occurrence for individual species and the entire carnivore community. Contrary to our expectation, hunting pressure and edge proximity did not have consistent, negative effects on occurrence across the nine carnivore species detected. Occurrence patterns for most species were positively associated with small prey biomass, and several species had either positive or negative associations with riverine forest (but not with other habitat descriptors). Influences of sampling design on carnivore detectability were also identified and addressed within our modeling framework (e.g., road and observer effects), and the multi-species approach facilitated inference on even the rarest carnivore species in the park. Our study provides insight for the conservation of these regionally significant carnivore populations, and our approach is broadly applicable to the robust assessment of communities of rare and elusive species subject to environmental change.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used for extrapolation, or predicting suitable regions for species under new geographic or temporal scenarios. However, SDM predictions may be prone to errors if species are not at equilibrium with climatic conditions in the current range and if training samples are not representative. Here the controversial "Pleistocene rewilding" proposal was used as a novel example to address some of the challenges of extrapolating modeled species-climate relationships outside of current ranges. Climatic suitability for three proposed proxy species (Asian elephant, African cheetah and African lion) was extrapolated to the American southwest and Great Plains using Maxent, a machine-learning species distribution model. Similar models were fit for Oryx gazella, a species native to Africa that has naturalized in North America, to test model predictions. To overcome biases introduced by contracted modern ranges and limited occurrence data, random pseudo-presence points generated from modern and historical ranges were used for model training. For all species except the oryx, models of climatic suitability fit to training data from historical ranges produced larger areas of predicted suitability in North America than models fit to training data from modern ranges. Four naturalized oryx populations in the American southwest were correctly predicted with a generous model threshold, but none of these locations were predicted with a more stringent threshold. In general, the northern Great Plains had low climatic suitability for all focal species and scenarios considered, while portions of the southern Great Plains and American southwest had low to intermediate suitability for some species in some scenarios. The results suggest that the use of historical, in addition to modern, range information and randomly sampled pseudo-presence points may improve model accuracy. This has implications for modeling range shifts of organisms in response to climate change.

BACKGROUND The pace and magnitude of human-caused global change has accelerated dramatically over the past 50 years, overwhelming the capacity of many ecosystems and species to maintain themselves as they have under the more stable conditions that prevailed for at least 11,000 years. The next few decades threaten even more rapid transformations because by 2050, the human population is projected to grow by 3 billion while simultaneously increasing per capita consumption. Thus, to avoid losing many species and the crucial aspects of ecosystems that we need—for both our physical and emotional well-being—new conservation paradigms and integration of information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences are required. ADVANCES Rather than attempting to hold ecosystems to an idealized conception of the past, as has been the prevailing conservation paradigm until recently, maintaining vibrant ecosystems for the future now requires new approaches that use both historical and novel conservation landscapes, enhance adaptive capacity for ecosystems and organisms, facilitate connectedness, and manage ecosystems for functional integrity rather than focusing entirely on particular species. Scientific breakthroughs needed to underpin such a paradigm shift are emerging at the intersection of ecology and paleobiology, revealing (i) which species and ecosystems will need human intervention to persist; (ii) how to foster population connectivity that anticipates rapidly changing climate and land use; (iii) functional attributes that characterize ecosystems through thousands to millions of years, irrespective of the species that are involved; and (iv) the range of compositional and functional variation that ecosystems have exhibited over their long histories. Such information is necessary for recognizing which current changes foretell transitions to less robust ecological states and which changes may signal benign ecosystem shifts that will cause no substantial loss of ecosystem function or services. Conservation success will also increasingly hinge on choosing among different, sometimes mutually exclusive approaches to best achieve three conceptually distinct goals: maximizing biodiversity, maximizing ecosystem services, and preserving wilderness. These goals vary in applicability depending on whether historical or novel ecosystems are the conservation target. Tradeoffs already occur—for example, managing to maximize certain ecosystem services upon which people depend (such as food production on farm or rangelands) versus maintaining healthy populations of vulnerable species (such as wolves, lions, or elephants). In the future, the choices will be starker, likely involving decisions such as which species are candidates for managed relocation and to which areas, and whether certain areas should be off limits for intensive management, even if it means losing some species that now live there. Developing the capacity to make those choices will require conservation in both historical and novel ecosystems and effective collaboration of scientists, governmental officials, nongovernmental organizations, the legal community, and other stakeholders. OUTLOOK Conservation efforts are currently in a state of transition, with active debate about the relative importance of preserving historical landscapes with minimal human impact on one end of the ideological spectrum versus manipulating novel ecosystems that result from human activities on the other. Although the two approaches are often presented as dichotomous, in fact they are connected by a continuum of practices, and both are needed. In most landscapes, maximizing conservation success will require more integration of paleobiology and conservation biology because in a rapidly changing world, a long-term perspective (encompassing at least millennia) is necessary to specify and select appropriate conservation targets and plans. Although adding this long-term perspective will be essential to sustain biodiversity and all of the facets of nature that humans need as we continue to rapidly change the world over the next few decades, maximizing the chances of success will also require dealing with the root causes of the conservation crisis: rapid growth of the human population, increasing per capita consumption especially in developed countries, and anthropogenic climate change that is rapidly pushing habitats outside the bounds experienced by today’s species.