1. Climate change is creating a mismatch between protected areas and suitable habitats for frogs and birds in Puerto Rico
- Author
-
Marconi Campos-Cerqueira, Adam J. Terando, Jaime A. Collazo, T. Mitchell Aide, and Brent A. Murray
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Ecological niche ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Ecology ,Fauna ,Species distribution ,Biodiversity ,Climate change ,Context (language use) ,Spatial distribution ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Geography ,Habitat ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Nature and Landscape Conservation - Abstract
Climate change is altering the spatial distribution of many species around the world. In response, we need to identify and protect suitable areas for a large proportion of the fauna so that they persist through time. This exercise must also evaluate the ability of existing protected areas to provide safe havens for species in the context of climate change. Here, we combined passive acoustic monitoring, semi-automatic species identification models, and species distribution models of 21 bird and frog species based on past (1980–1989), present (2005–2014), and future (2040–2060) climate scenarios to determine how species distributions relate to the current distribution of protected areas in Puerto Rico. Species detection/non-detection data were acquired across ~ 700 sampling sites. We developed always-suitable maps that characterized suitable habitats in all three time periods for each species and overlaid these maps to identify regions with high species co-occurrence. These distributions were then compared with the distribution of existing protected areas. We show that Puerto Rico is projected to become dryer by 2040–2060, and precipitation in the warmest quarter was among the most important variables affecting bird and frog distributions. A large portion of always-suitable areas (ASA) is outside of protected areas (> 80%), and the percent of protected areas that overlaps with always-suitable areas is larger for bird (75%) than frog (39%) species. Our results indicate that present protected areas will not suffice to safeguard bird and frog species under climate change; however, the establishment of larger protected areas, buffer zones, and connectivity between protected areas may allow species to find suitable niches to withstand environmental changes.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF