Search

Vessel traffic is a key element determining port safety and capacity. The growth of port calls and cargo can have implications in port operations. Decision makers need to take decisions to anticipate any future capacity drop or increase in nautical risks. In this research, a multi-criteria decision making methodology is developed to evaluate the trade-off between safety and capacity of vessel traffic in ports, as well as other assessment indicators. The methodology first identifies the most relevant risk and capacity assessment criteria and the input required. A simulation model is used to calculate the criteria for a variety of different scenarios. The outcome results for the criteria from the simulations are used into a decision-making method that includes unknown decision makers’ preferences. The use of this methodology provides the best scenario for port vessel traffic, when strategic and operational decisions should be taken, and it can be used as a framework for port assessment by decision makers for future changes in traffic management strategies or changes in the port infrastructure, such as port expansions.

Ports represent a key element in the maritime transportation chain. Larger vessels and higher traffic volumes in ports might result in higher risks at the navigational level. Thus, the dire need for a comprehensive and efficient risk assessment method for ports is felt. Many methodologies have been proposed so far, but their application to aggregated vessel traffic risks for the overall assessment of ports is not developed yet. Hence, the development of an approach for the appraisal of the vessel traffic risks is still a challenging issue. This research aims to develop an assessment methodology to appraise the potential risk of accident occurrence in port areas at an aggregated level by creating a ‘Nautical Port Risk Index’ (NPRI). After identifying the main nautical risks in ports, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is used to derive the risk perception (RP) weights for each criterion from data collected through surveys to expert navigators. The consequences related to each nautical risk are identified in consultation with risk experts. By combining the RP values and the consequence of each criterion for a time period, the NPRI is calculated. The risks in the Port of Rotterdam are presented in a case study, and the method has been validated by checking the results with experts in assessing nautical port risks from the Port of Rotterdam Authority. This method can be used to assess any new port design, the performance of different vessel traffic management measures, changes in the fleet composition, or existent ports using the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data.

Port capacity is an essential parameter for the assessment of port performance. In the literature, there is no unanimous capacity definition, which depends on each research goal. Vessel traffic in ports and the corresponding port performance indicators have been analyzed with different simulation models, but they generally do not include a method for determining a port’s capacity. Guidelines or other studies using empirical data also have not addressed this important topic. The method developed in this paper estimates the port network traffic capacity (PNTC) by using vessel traffic data. The analysis and comparison of several indicators are used to identify meaningful relationships for estimating port capacity with generic applicability to any port design. The relation between the total number of trips in the port and the ratio of waiting time to service time seems to be the most suitable for identifying when the port reaches unstable flow situations, that is, when it reaches capacity. The method has been applied successfully in six scenarios with various berths, layouts, service times, vessel fleet types, and maneuvering times. Application of the method is useful during the port-planning phase, because with a few simulations, an indicative PNTC value for each design can be inferred, and thus, different scenarios can be compared.