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Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is one of the most prevalent diseases in the world and presents a major health and economic burden, a notable proportion of which could be alleviated with improved early prediction and intervention. While standard risk factors including age, obesity, and hypertension have shown good predictive performance, we show that the use of CpG DNA methylation information leads to a significant improvement in the prediction of 10-year T2D incidence risk. Whilst previous studies have been largely constrained by linear assumptions and the use of CpGs one-at-the-time, we have adopted a more flexible approach based on a range of linear and tree-ensemble models for classification and time-to-event prediction. Using the Generation Scotland cohort (n=9,537) our best performing model (Area Under the Curve (AUC)=0.880, Precision Recall AUC (PRAUC)=0.539, McFaddens R2=0.316) used a LASSO Cox proportional-hazards predictor and showed notable improvement in onset prediction, above and beyond standard risk factors (AUC=0.860, PRAUC=0.444 R2=0.261). Replication of the main finding was observed in an external test dataset (the German-based KORA study, p=3.7x10-4). Tree-ensemble methods provided comparable performance and future improvements to these models are discussed. Finally, we introduce MethylPipeR, an R package with accompanying user interface, for systematic and reproducible development of complex trait and incident disease predictors. While MethylPipeR was applied to incident T2D prediction with DNA methylation in our experiments, the package is designed for generalised development of predictive models and is applicable to a wide range of omics data and target traits.

Summary Cell-to-cell transcriptional variability in otherwise homogeneous cell populations plays an important role in tissue function and development. Single-cell RNA sequencing can characterize this variability in a transcriptome-wide manner. However, technical variation and the confounding between variability and mean expression estimates hinder meaningful comparison of expression variability between cell populations. To address this problem, we introduce an analysis approach that extends the BASiCS statistical framework to derive a residual measure of variability that is not confounded by mean expression. This includes a robust procedure for quantifying technical noise in experiments where technical spike-in molecules are not available. We illustrate how our method provides biological insight into the dynamics of cell-to-cell expression variability, highlighting a synchronization of biosynthetic machinery components in immune cells upon activation. In contrast to the uniform up-regulation of the biosynthetic machinery, CD4+ T cells show heterogeneous up-regulation of immune-related and lineage-defining genes during activation and differentiation., Graphical Abstract, Highlights • Correction of the mean-variability dependency in scRNA-seq data using BASiCS • Quantification of technical noise when spike-in RNA is missing • Joint differential mean expression and differential variability testing • Detection of heterogeneously regulated genes during immune responses, When quantifying expression variability from single-cell RNA sequencing data, lowly expressed genes tend to be more variable compared to highly expressed genes. This confounding effect hinders robust expression variability testing between two cell populations when mean expression changes. Eling et al. introduce a Bayesian approach that corrects for this confounding effect and allows joint differential mean and differential variability testing. This led to the discovery of homogeneously and heterogeneously regulated genes during immune activation and differentiation.

Single-cell transcriptomics is becoming an important component of the molecular biologist's toolkit. A critical step when analyzing data generated using this technology is normalization. However, normalization is typically performed using methods developed for bulk RNA sequencing or even microarray data, and the suitability of these methods for single-cell transcriptomics has not been assessed. We here discuss commonly used normalization approaches and illustrate how these can produce misleading results. Finally, we present alternative approaches and provide recommendations for single-cell RNA sequencing users.

Contains fulltext : 218166.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) The recent boom in microfluidics and combinatorial indexing strategies, combined with low sequencing costs, has empowered single-cell sequencing technology. Thousands-or even millions-of cells analyzed in a single experiment amount to a data revolution in single-cell biology and pose unique data science problems. Here, we outline eleven challenges that will be central to bringing this emerging field of single-cell data science forward. For each challenge, we highlight motivating research questions, review prior work, and formulate open problems. This compendium is for established researchers, newcomers, and students alike, highlighting interesting and rewarding problems for the coming years.

SummaryCell-to-cell transcriptional variability in otherwise homogeneous cell populations plays a crucial role in tissue function and development. Single-cell RNA sequencing can characterise this variability in a transcriptome-wide manner. However, technical variation and the confounding between variability and mean expression estimates hinders meaningful comparison of expression variability between cell populations. To address this problem, we introduce a novel analysis approach that extends the BASiCS statistical framework to derive a residual measure of variability that is not confounded by mean expression. Moreover, we introduce a new and robust procedure for quantifying technical noise in experiments where technical spike-in molecules are not available. We illustrate how our method provides biological insight into the dynamics of cell-to-cell expression variability, highlighting a synchronisation of the translational machinery in immune cells upon activation. Additionally, our approach identifies new patterns of variability across CD4+ T cell differentiation.

Aging is characterized by progressive loss of physiological and cellular functions, but the molecular basis of this decline remains unclear. We explored how aging affects transcriptional dynamics using single-cell RNA sequencing of unstimulated and stimulated naive and effector memory CD4+ T cells from young and old mice from two divergent species. In young animals, immunological activation drives a conserved transcriptomic switch, resulting in tightly controlled gene expression characterized by a strong up-regulation of a core activation program, coupled with a decrease in cell-to-cell variability. Aging perturbed the activation of this core program and increased expression heterogeneity across populations of cells in both species. These discoveries suggest that increased cell-to-cell transcriptional variability will be a hallmark feature of aging across most, if not all, mammalian tissues.