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The trajectory of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in relation to glomerular hyperfiltration (GHF) has been unknown. It was evaluated retrospectively in 23,982 GHF-free health examinees who were followed for 2−10 yr (mean: 5.1 yr). GFR was estimated by the serum creatinine concentration, and GHF was defined as age- and sex-specific estimated GFR (eGFR) ≥ 95% of the Japanese general population. The temporal profile of eGFR was plotted in a GHF-centered way, which was fitted to a random coefficient linear mixed model. Of the 23,982 subjects, 797 and 23,185 subjects developed or did not develop GHF, respectively, so that they were termed as the GHF(+)and GHF(−)groups. At baseline, median eGFR was significantly elevated in the GHF(+)group compared with in the GHF(−)group: 94.1 versus 77.3 mL/min/1.73 m2( P < 0.001). Elevation of basal eGFR lasted for a mean (SD) of 3.3 (1.9) yr in the GHF(+)group; mean eGFR then rose to the GHF range, which was 108.5 mL/min/1.73 m2. The eGFR decline after the peak was steeper in the GHF(+)group than in the GHF(−)group: −0.984 versus −0.497 mL/min/1.73 m2/yr ( P < 0.001). Baseline eGFR, but no other variable, well predicted incident GHF, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 (95% confidence interval: 0.86–0.88). In conclusion, GHF occurs as a chronic, multiphasic phenomenon: initially with a sustained GFR elevation for years, followed by a GFR surge to the GHF range, which was accompanied by accelerated GFR declining.

Aims To compare impact of elevated HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) on incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a non-diabetic cohort. Methods Data from diabetes- and CKD-free 25,109 health examinees were retrospectively analysed with a mean observation period of 5.3 years. Prediabetes was diagnosed by the ADA and WHO criteria, and CKD by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) Results For incident CKD (n = 2483), high HbA1c but not FPG was an independent risk: adjusted hazard ratio (AHR, 95%CI) for HbA1c 1% and FPG 1 mmol/L, 1.91 (1.70–2.16) and 0.85 (0.60–1.20), respectively. Prediabetes by the ADA and WHO criteria were both risk for CKD with AHR (95%CI), 1.21 (1.12–1.32) and 1.31 (1.16–1.48), respectively. Prediabetes diagnosed by ‘elevated HbA1c irrespective of FPG’, either by the ADA and the WHO definition, was a risk with AHR (95%CI), 1.48 (1.36–1.61) and 1.51 (1.31–1.74), respectively. In contrast, prediabetes diagnosed by ‘raised FPG irrespective of HbA1c’ was not a CKD risk. Conclusions Elevated HbA1c, but not FPG, identified CKD risk in non-diabetic individuals.

Objective We aimed to clarify the onset of diabetes. Design Data from 27,392 nondiabetic health examinees were retrospectively analyzed for a mean of 5.3 years. Trajectories of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), body mass index (BMI), and the single point insulin sensitivity (Si) estimator (SPISE), an index of Si, 10 years before diagnosis of prediabetes (PDM; n = 4781) or diabetes (n = 1061) were separately assessed by a mixed effects model. Diabetes and PDM were diagnosed by the American Diabetes Association definition on the basis of FPG and glycosylated hemoglobin A1c values. Results In individuals who developed diabetes, mean FPG and BMI were significantly higher (P < 0.01 each) and SPISE lower than those who did not at −10 years: FPG 101.5 mg/dL vs 94.5 mg/dL, BMI 24.0 kg/m2 vs 22.7 kg/m2, and SPISE 7.32 vs 8.34, P < 0.01 each. These measurements, in subjects who developed prediabetes, were slightly but definitely different from those who did not, already at −10 years: FPG 91.8 mg/dL vs 89.6 mg/dL, BMI 22.6 kg/m2 vs 22.1 kg/m2, and SPISE 8.44 vs 8.82, P < 0.01 each. In both cases, the differences were progressively greater toward year 0, the time of diabetes, or PDM diagnosis. Conclusions FPG was significantly elevated in those who developed diabetes at least 10 years before diagnosis of diabetes, and this was also the case in those who developed PDM. Glucose dysregulation precedes diagnosis of diabetes at least for 20 years., FPG already increased at 10 years before diagnosis of diabetes and also at 10 years before diagnosis of prediabetes. Diabetes may begin at least >20 years before its diagnosis.

A hypothesis that postchallenge hyperglycemia in subjects with low body weight (BW) may be due, in part, to small glucose volume (GV) was tested. We studied 11,411 nondiabetic subjects with a mean BW of 63.3 kg; 5,282 of them were followed for a mean of 5.3 yr. In another group of 1,537 nondiabetic subjects, insulin sensitivity, secretion, and a product of the two (index of whole body insulin action) were determined. Corrected 2 h-plasma glucose (2hPGcorr) during a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test in subjects with BW ≤ 59 kg was calculated as 2hPGcorr = δPG2h · ECW/[16.1 (males) or 15.3 (females)] + fasting PG (FPG), where δPG2h is plasma glucose increment in 2 h; ECW is extracellular water (surrogate of GV); FPG is fasting plasma glucose; and 16.1 and 15.3 are ECW of men and women, respectively, with BW = 59 kg. Multivariate analyses for BW with adjustment for age, sex, and percent body fat were undertaken. BW was, across its entire range, positively correlated with FPG ( P < 0.01). Whereas BW was correlated with 2hPG and δPG in a skewed J-shape, with inflections at around 60 kg ( P for nonlinearity < 0.01 for each). Nonetheless, in those with BW ≤ 59 kg, insulin sensitivity, secretion, and action were unattenuated, and incident diabetes was less compared with heavier counterparts. BW was linearly correlated with 2hPGcorr, i.e., the J-shape correlation was mitigated by the correction. In conclusion, postchallenge hyperglycemia in low BW subjects is in part due to small GV rather than impaired glucose metabolism.

Aim Risk profile for incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Japanese subjects has not been established. Our aim was to identify risk factors for CKD in Japanese. Methods Consecutive 171 536 health examinees (median age 49 years and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 78.2 mL/min per 1.73 m2) without CKD were re-examined after a median period of 6.2 years. Results of Cox proportional hazards models in randomly assigned two thirds (Derivation cohort) were verified in the rest (Validation cohort). CKD was defined as eGFR

Aim To clarify the natural course of prediabetes and develop predictive models for conversion to diabetes. Methods A retrospective longitudinal study of 2105 adults with prediabetes was carried out with a mean observation period of 4.7years. Models were developed using multivariate logistic regression analysis and verified by 10-fold cross-validation. The relationship between [final BMI minus baseline BMI] (δBMI) and incident diabetes was analyzed post hoc by comparing the diabetes conversion rate for low ( 2 ) and high δBMI (≥ −0.31kg/m 2 ) subjects after matching the two groups for the covariates. Results Diabetes developed in 252 (2.5%/year), and positive family history, male sex, higher systolic blood pressure, plasma glucose (fasting and 1h- and 2h-values during 75g OGTT), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and alanine aminotransferase were significant, independent predictors for the conversion. By using a risk score (RS) that took account of all these variables, incident diabetes was predicted with an area under the ROC curve (95% CI) of 0.80 (0.70–0.87) and a specificity of prediction of 61.8% at 80% sensitivity. On division of the participants into high- ( n =248), intermediate- ( n =336) and low-risk ( n =1521) populations, the conversion rates were 40.1%, 18.5% and 5.9%, respectively. The conversion rate was lower in subjects with low than high δBMI (9.2% vs 14.4%, p =0.003). Conclusions Prediabetes conversion to diabetes could be predicted with accuracy, and weight reduction during the observation was associated with lowered conversion rate.

The quantitative impact of weight gain on prediabetic glucose dysregulation remains unknown; only one study quantitated the impact of weight loss. We quantified the impact of weight gain on the evolution and regression of prediabetes (PDM).In 4234 subjects without diabetes, using logistic regression analysis with a 4.8-year follow-up period, we analyzed the relationship between (1) δBMI (BMIMean (±s.d.) δBMI was 0.17 (±1.3) kg/mIn Japanese adults, an increase in the BMI by even 1 kg/m

To clarify if prediabetes defined by the International Expert Committee (PrediabetesIEC) and/or the American Diabetes Society (PrediabetesADA) is a risk for incident glomerular hyperfiltration (GH). 24,524 health examinees without diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), GH and antihypertensive treatment at baseline, and repeated examinations at least twice during a mean of 5.3 years were retrospectively analysed. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 7.0 mmol/L and/or HbA1c ≥ 47 mmol/mol, CKD by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)

To develop diabetes risk score (RS) based on the current definition of diabetes, we retrospectively analyzed consecutive 4,159 health examinees who were non-diabetic at baseline. Diabetes, diagnosed by fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L, 2hPG ≥11.1 mmol/L and/or HbA1c ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol), developed in 279 of them during the mean period of 4.9 years. A full RS (RSFull), a RS without 2hPG (RS-2hPG) and a non-invasive RS (RSNI) were created on the basis of multivariate Cox proportional model by weighted grading based on hazard ratio in half the persons assigned. The RSs were verified in the remaining half of the participants. Positive family history (FH), male sex, smoking and higher age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), FPG, 2hPG and HbA1c were independent predictors for RSFull. For RS-2hPG, 7 independent predictors, exclusive of 2hPG and smoking but inclusive of elevated triglycerides (TG) comparing to RSFull, were selected. FH, male sex, and higher age, SBP and HbA1c were independent predictors in RSNI. In the validation cohort, C-statistic (95%CI) of RSFull, RS-2hPG and RSNI were 0.80 (0.76-0.84), 0.75 (0.70-0.78) and 0.68 (0.63-0.72), respectively, which were significantly different from each other (P