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Background During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, 77 countries received donated monovalent A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine through the WHO Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Vaccine Deployment Initiative. However, 47% did not receive their first shipment until after the first wave of virus circulation, and 8% did not receive their first shipment until after the WHO declared the end of the pandemic. Arguably, these shipments were too late into the pandemic to have a substantial effect on virus transmission or disease burden during the first waves of the pandemic. Objectives In order to evaluate the potential benefits of earlier vaccine availability, we estimated the number of illnesses and deaths that could be averted during a 2009-like influenza pandemic under five different vaccine-availability timing scenarios. Methods We adapted a model originally developed to estimate annual influenza morbidity and mortality burden averted through US seasonal vaccination and ran it for five vaccine availability timing scenarios in nine low- and middle-income countries that received donated vaccine. Results Among nine study countries, we estimated that the number of averted cases was 61–216,197 for actual vaccine receipt, increasing to 2,914–283,916 had vaccine been available simultaneously with the United States. Conclusions Earlier delivery of vaccines can reduce influenza case counts during a simulated 2009-like pandemic in some low- and middle-income countries. For others, increasing the number of cases and deaths prevented through vaccination may be dependent on factors other than timely initiation of vaccine administration, such as distribution and administration capacity.

To determine prevalence of, seroprevalence of, and potential exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among a cohort of evacuees returning to the United States from Wuhan, China, in January 2020, we conducted a cross-sectional study of quarantined evacuees from 1 repatriation flight. Overall, 193 of 195 evacuees completed exposure surveys and submitted upper respiratory or serum specimens or both at arrival in the United States. Nearly all evacuees had taken preventive measures to limit potential exposure while in Wuhan, and none had detectable SARS-CoV-2 in upper respiratory tract specimens, suggesting the absence of asymptomatic respiratory shedding among this group at the time of testing. Evidence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 1 evacuee, who reported experiencing no symptoms or high-risk exposures in the previous 2 months. These findings demonstrated that this group of evacuees posed a low risk of introducing SARS-CoV-2 to the United States.

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes a range of illness severity. Mild illness has been reported, but whether illness severity correlates with infectivity is unknown. We describe the public health investigation of a mildly ill, nonhospitalized COVID-19 case who traveled to China. Methods The case was a Maricopa County resident with multiple severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)–positive specimens collected on 22 January 2020. Contacts were persons exposed to the case on or after the day before case diagnostic specimen collection. Contacts were monitored for 14 days after last known exposure. High-risk contacts had close, prolonged case contact (≥ 10 minutes within 2 m). Medium-risk contacts wore all US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention–recommended personal protective equipment during interactions. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP/OP) specimens were collected from the case and high-risk contacts and tested for SARS-CoV-2. Results Paired case NP/OP specimens were collected for SARS-CoV-2 testing at 11 time points. In 8 pairs (73%), ≥ 1 specimen tested positive or indeterminate, and in 3 pairs (27%) both tested negative. Specimens collected 18 days after diagnosis tested positive. Sixteen contacts were identified; 11 (69%) had high-risk exposure, including 1 intimate contact, and 5 (31%) had medium-risk exposure. In total, 35 high-risk contact NP/OP specimens were collected for SARS-CoV-2 testing; all 35 pairs (100%) tested negative. Conclusions This report demonstrates that SARS-CoV-2 infection can cause mild illness and result in positive tests for up to 18 days after diagnosis, without evidence of transmission to close contacts. These data might inform public health strategies to manage individuals with asymptomatic infection or mild illness.

Despite recommendations, few children aged 6–35 months in Thailand receive seasonal influenza vaccination. Using previously estimated incidence and vaccine effectiveness data from the period 2012–2014, we estimate that up to 121 000 medical visits could be prevented each year with 50% coverage and expanded recommendations to children aged

Multiple genetically distinct influenza B/Victoria lineage viruses have cocirculated in the United States recently, circulating sporadically during the 2018-19 season and more frequently early during the 2019-20 season (1). The beginning of the 2019-20 influenza season in Louisiana was unusually early and intense, with infections primarily caused by influenza B/Victoria lineage viruses. One large pediatric health care facility in New Orleans (facility A) reported 1,268 laboratory-confirmed influenza B virus infections, including 23 hospitalizations from July 31 to November 21, 2019, a time when influenza activity is typically low. During this period, Louisiana also reported one pediatric death associated with influenza B virus infection. An investigation of the influenza B virus infections in Louisiana, including medical and vaccine record abstraction on 198 patients, primarily from facility A, with sporadic cases from other facilities in the state, found that none of the patients had received 2019-20 seasonal influenza vaccine, in part because influenza activity began before influenza vaccination typically occurs. Among 83 influenza B viruses sequenced from 198 patients in Louisiana, 81 (98%) belonged to the recently emerged B/Victoria V1A.3 genetic subclade. Nationally, to date, B/Victoria viruses are the most commonly reported influenza viruses among persons aged

We describe the contact investigation for an early confirmed case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), in the United States. Contacts of the case-patient were identified, actively monitored for symptoms, interviewed for a detailed exposure history, and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection by real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR) and ELISA. Fifty contacts were identified and 38 (76%) were interviewed, of whom 11 (29%) reported unprotected face-to-face interaction with the case-patient. Thirty-seven (74%) had respiratory specimens tested by rRT-PCR, and all tested negative. Twenty-three (46%) had ELISA performed on serum samples collected ≈6 weeks after exposure, and none had detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Among contacts who were tested, no secondary transmission was identified in this investigation, despite unprotected close interactions with the infectious case-patient.

Identifying optimal priming strategies for children2 years could substantially improve the public health benefits of influenza vaccines. Adjuvanted seasonal influenza vaccines were designed to promote a better immune response among young vaccine-naïve children.We systematically reviewed randomized trials to assess hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibody response to MF59-adjuvanted inactivated influenza vaccine (aIIV) versus nonadjuvanted IIV among children. We estimated pooled ratios of post-vaccination HAI geometric mean titer (GMT) for aIIV versus IIV and confidence intervals (CIs) using the pooled variances derived from reported CIs.Mean age was 28 months (range, 6-72 months). Children received vaccines with either 7.5 μg (6-35 months) or 15 μg (≥36 months) hemagglutinin of each strain depending on age. Seven of eight trials administered trivalent vaccines and one used quadrivalent vaccine. Pooled post-vaccination GMT ratios against the three influenza vaccine strains were 2.5-3.5 fold higher after 2-dose-aIIV versus 2-dose-IIV among children 6-72 months, and point estimates were higher among children 6-35 months compared with older children. When comparing 1-dose-aIIV to 2-dose-IIV doses, pooled GMT ratios were not significantly different against A/H1N1 (1.0; 95% CI: 0.5-1.8; p = 0.90) and A/H3N2 viruses (1.0; 95% CI: 0.7-1.5; p = 0.81) and were significantly lower against B viruses (0.6; 95% CI: 0.4-0.8; p 0.001) for both age groups. Notably, GMT ratios for vaccine-mismatched heterologous viruses after 2-dose-aIIV compared with 2-dose-IIV were higher against A/H1N1 (2.0; 95% CI: 1.1-3.4), A/H3N2 (2.9; 95% CI: 1.9-4.2), and B-lineage viruses (2.1; 95% CI: 1.8-2.6).Two doses of adjuvanted IIV consistently induced better humoral immune responses against Type A and B influenza viruses compared with nonadjuvanted IIVs in young children, particularly among those 6-35 months. One adjuvanted IIV dose had a similar response to two nonadjuvanted IIV doses against Type A influenza viruses. Longer-term benefits from imprinting and cell-mediated immunity, including trials of clinical efficacy, are gaps that warrant investigation.

Background The estimated association of maternal influenza vaccination and birth outcomes may be sensitive to methods used to define preterm birth or small‐for‐gestational age (SGA). Methods In a cohort of pregnant women in Lao People's Democratic Republic, we estimated gestational age from: (a) date of last menstrual period (LMP), (b) any prenatal ultrasound, (c) first trimester ultrasound, (d) Ballard Score at delivery, and (e) an algorithm combining LMP and ultrasound. Infants were classified as SGA at birth using a Canadian, global, and equation‐based growth reference. We estimated the association of maternal influenza vaccination and birth outcomes, by influenza activity, using multivariable log‐binomial regression and Cox proportional hazards regression with vaccination as a time‐varying exposure. Results The frequency of preterm birth in the cohort varied by method to estimate gestational age, from 5% using Ballard Score to 15% using any ultrasound. Using LMP, any ultrasound, or the algorithm, we found statistically significant reductions in preterm birth among vaccinated women during periods of high influenza activity and statistically significant increases in SGA, using a Canadian growth reference. We did not find statistically significant associations with SGA when using global or equation‐based growth references. Conclusions The association of maternal influenza vaccination and birth outcomes was most affected by the choice of a growth reference used to define SGA at birth. The association with pre‐term birth was present and consistent across multiple statistical approaches. Future studies of birth outcomes, specifically SGA, should carefully consider the potential for bias introduced by measurement choice.

Background Vaccination is the best way to prevent influenza; however, greater benefits could be achieved. To help guide research and policy agendas, we aimed to quantify the magnitude of influenza disease that would be prevented through targeted increases in vaccine effectiveness (VE) or vaccine coverage (VC). Methods For 3 influenza seasons (2011–12, 2015–16, and 2017–18), we used a mathematical model to estimate the number of prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medically attended illnesses, and hospitalizations across 5 age groups. Compared with estimates of prevented illness during each season, given observed VE and VC, we explored the number of additional outcomes that would have been prevented from a 5% absolute increase in VE or VC or from achieving 60% VE or 70% VC. Results During the 2017–18 season, compared with the burden already prevented by influenza vaccination, a 5% absolute VE increase would have prevented an additional 1 050 000 illnesses and 25 000 hospitalizations (76% among those aged ≥65 years), while achieving 60% VE would have prevented an additional 190 000 hospitalizations. A 5% VC increase would have resulted in 785 000 fewer illnesses (56% among those aged 18–64 years) and 11 000 fewer hospitalizations; reaching 70% would have prevented an additional 39 000 hospitalizations. Conclusions Small, attainable improvements in effectiveness or VC of the influenza vaccine could lead to substantial additional reductions in the influenza burden in the United States. Improvements in VE would have the greatest impact in reducing hospitalizations in adults aged ≥65 years, and VC improvements would have the largest benefit in reducing illnesses in adults aged 18–49 years.

CDC collects, compiles, and analyzes data on influenza activity and viruses in the United States. During September 30, 2018-February 2, 2019,* influenza activity† in the United States was low during October and November, increased in late December, and remained elevated through early February. As of February 2, 2019, this has been a low-severity influenza season (1), with a lower percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI), lower rates of hospitalization, and fewer deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza, compared with recent seasons. Influenza-associated hospitalization rates among children are similar to those observed in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 predominant seasons; 28 influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2018-19 season have been reported to CDC. Whereas influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses predominated in most areas of the country, influenza A(H3N2) viruses have predominated in the southeastern United States, and in recent weeks accounted for a growing proportion of influenza viruses detected in several other regions. Small numbers of influenza B viruses (

This study aimed to analyze the proportion of household contacts that had detectable COVID-19 after a shortened quarantine period From April-September 2020, among 105 index patients, 185 household contacts were enrolled (median of one household contact per index patient, interquartile range [[]IQR]=1-2;45[%] of household contacts were male;median age of household contacts=27 years, IQR=15-45 years)in Nashville, Tennessee, and Marshfield, Wisconsin Enrollment occurred a median of 4 days (IQR = 2-4 days) after the index patient's illness onset and study follow-up concluded a median of 16 days (IQR=15-17 days) after the index patient's illness onset Overall, 109 (59[%]) household contacts had SARS-CoV-2 detected in respiratory specimens during the follow-up period, with the first positive specimen collected a median of 5 days (IQR=3-7 days) after the index patient's illness onset Among all infected household contacts, 76[%] had infection detected within 7 days after the index patient's illness onset and 86[%] within 10 days The probability that a household contact who was asymptomatic and had negative RT-PCR test results through day 7 would remain asymptomatic with negative RT-PCR test results through 14 days after the index patient's illness onset was 81[%] (95[%] CI = 67[%]-90[%]);increased to 93[%] (95[%] CI=78[%]-98[%]) if the household contact remained asymptomatic with negative test results through day 10 With consistent adherence, quarantine prevents transmission from persons who were exposed to the virus and who might become infectious, but who do not have symptoms or signs of infection A 14-day quarantine of all close contacts who are exposed to a person with COVID-19, such as in the household, is the most effective strategy to reduce the spread of COVID-19 Although persons might be more adherent to a shorter quarantine period, such a policy is not without risk for further spread

Improved understanding of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), within households could aid control measures. However, few studies have systematically characterized the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in U.S. households (1). Previously reported transmission rates vary widely, and data on transmission rates from children are limited. To assess household transmission, a case-ascertained study was conducted in Nashville, Tennessee, and Marshfield, Wisconsin, commencing in April 2020. In this study, index patients were defined as the first household members with COVID-19-compatible symptoms who received a positive SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test result, and who lived with at least one other household member. After enrollment, index patients and household members were trained remotely by study staff members to complete symptom diaries and obtain self-collected specimens, nasal swabs only or nasal swabs and saliva samples, daily for 14 days. For this analysis, specimens from the first 7 days were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using CDC RT-PCR protocols.† A total of 191 enrolled household contacts of 101 index patients reported having no symptoms on the day of the associated index patient's illness onset, and among these 191 contacts, 102 had SARS-CoV-2 detected in either nasal or saliva specimens during follow-up, for a secondary infection rate of 53% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 46%-60%). Among fourteen households in which the index patient was aged

Background Influenza may contribute to the burden of acute cardiovascular events during annual influenza epidemics. Objective To examine acute cardiovascular events and determine risk factors for acute heart failure (aHF) and acute ischemic heart disease (aIHD) in adults with a hospitalization associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting U.S. Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network during the 2010-to-2011 through 2017-to-2018 influenza seasons. Participants Adults hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza and identified through influenza testing ordered by a practitioner. Measurements Acute cardiovascular events were ascertained using discharge codes from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification, and ICD, 10th Revision. Age, sex, race/ethnicity, tobacco use, chronic conditions, influenza vaccination, influenza antiviral medication, and influenza type or subtype were included as exposures in logistic regression models, and marginal adjusted risk ratios and 95% CIs were estimated to describe factors associated with aHF or aIHD. Results Among 89 999 adults with laboratory-confirmed influenza, 80 261 had complete medical record abstractions and available ICD codes (median age, 69 years [interquartile range, 54 to 81 years]) and 11.7% had an acute cardiovascular event. The most common such events (non-mutually exclusive) were aHF (6.2%) and aIHD (5.7%). Older age, tobacco use, underlying cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and renal disease were significantly associated with higher risk for aHF and aIHD in adults hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza. Limitation Underdetection of cases was likely because influenza testing was based on practitioner orders. Acute cardiovascular events were identified by ICD discharge codes and may be subject to misclassification bias. Conclusion In this population-based study of adults hospitalized with influenza, almost 12% of patients had an acute cardiovascular event. Clinicians should ensure high rates of influenza vaccination, especially in those with underlying chronic conditions, to protect against acute cardiovascular events associated with influenza. Primary funding source Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Background Preventing severe complications of influenza such as hospitalization is a public health priority; however, estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza-associated acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) hospitalizations are limited. We examined influenza VE against influenza-associated LRTIs in hospitalized adult patients. Methods We retrospectively analyzed data from a randomized trial of oseltamivir treatment in adults hospitalized with LRTI in Louisville, Kentucky, from 2010 to 2013. Patients were systematically tested for influenza at the time of enrollment. We estimated VE as 1 – the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of antecedent vaccination in influenza-positives vs negatives × 100%. Vaccination status was obtained by patient self-report. Using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, season, timing of illness, history of chronic lung disease, and activities of daily living, we estimated VE against hospitalized influenza-associated LRTIs and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) with radiographic findings of infiltrate. Results Of 810 patients with LRTI (median age, 62 years), 184 (23%) were influenza-positive and 57% had radiographically confirmed CAP. Among influenza-positives and -negatives, respectively, 61% and 69% were vaccinated. Overall, 29% were hospitalized in the prior 90 days and >80% had comorbidities. Influenza-negatives were more likely to have a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease than influenza-positives (59% vs 48%; P = .01), but baseline medical conditions were otherwise similar. Overall, VE was 35% (95% CI, 4% to 56%) against influenza-associated LRTI and 51% (95% CI, 13% to 72%) against influenza-associated radiographically confirmed CAP. Conclusions Vaccination reduced the risk of hospitalization for influenza-associated LRTI and radiographically confirmed CAP. Clinicians should maintain high rates of influenza vaccination to prevent severe influenza-associated complications.

Background Improving appropriate antibiotic use is crucial for combating antibiotic resistance and unnecessary adverse drug reactions. Acute respiratory illness (ARI) commonly causes outpatient visits and accounts for ~41% of antibiotics used in the United States. We examined the influence of influenza vaccination on reducing antibiotic prescriptions among outpatients with ARI. Methods We enrolled outpatients aged ≥6 months with ARI from 50–60 US clinics during 5 winters (2013–2018) and tested for influenza with RT-PCR; results were unavailable for clinical decision making and clinical influenza testing was infrequent. We collected antibiotic prescriptions and diagnosis codes for ARI syndromes. We calculated vaccine effectiveness (VE) by comparing vaccination odds among influenza-positive cases with test-negative controls. We estimated ARI visits and antibiotic prescriptions averted by influenza vaccination using estimates of VE, coverage, and prevalence of antibiotic prescriptions and influenza. Results Among 37 487 ARI outpatients, 9659 (26%) were influenza positive. Overall, 36% of ARI and 26% of influenza-positive patients were prescribed antibiotics. The top 3 prevalent ARI syndromes included: viral upper respiratory tract infection (47%), pharyngitis (18%), and allergy or asthma (11%). Among patients testing positive for influenza, 77% did not receive an ICD-CM diagnostic code for influenza. Overall, VE against influenza-associated ARI was 35% (95% CI, 32–39%). Vaccination prevented 5.6% of all ARI syndromes, ranging from 2.8% (sinusitis) to 11% (clinical influenza). Influenza vaccination averted 1 in 25 (3.8%; 95% CI, 3.6–4.1%) antibiotic prescriptions among ARI outpatients during influenza seasons. Conclusions Vaccination and accurate influenza diagnosis may curb unnecessary antibiotic use and reduce the global threat of antibiotic resistance.

In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, began in Wuhan, China (1). The disease spread widely in China, and, as of February 26, 2020, COVID-19 cases had been identified in 36 other countries and territories, including the United States. Person-to-person transmission has been widely documented, and a limited number of countries have reported sustained person-to-person spread.* On January 20, state and local health departments in the United States, in collaboration with teams deployed from CDC, began identifying and monitoring all persons considered to have had close contact† with patients with confirmed COVID-19 (2). The aims of these efforts were to ensure rapid evaluation and care of patients, limit further transmission, and better understand risk factors for transmission.

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), first detected in China in December, 2019. In January, 2020, state, local, and federal public health agencies investigated the first case of COVID-19 in Illinois, USA. Methods Patients with confirmed COVID-19 were defined as those with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Contacts were people with exposure to a patient with COVID-19 on or after the patient's symptom onset date. Contacts underwent active symptom monitoring for 14 days following their last exposure. Contacts who developed fever, cough, or shortness of breath became persons under investigation and were tested for SARS-CoV-2. A convenience sample of 32 asymptomatic health-care personnel contacts were also tested. Findings Patient 1-a woman in her 60s-returned from China in mid-January, 2020. One week later, she was hospitalised with pneumonia and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Her husband (Patient 2) did not travel but had frequent close contact with his wife. He was admitted 8 days later and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Overall, 372 contacts of both cases were identified; 347 underwent active symptom monitoring, including 152 community contacts and 195 health-care personnel. Of monitored contacts, 43 became persons under investigation, in addition to Patient 2. These 43 persons under investigation and all 32 asymptomatic health-care personnel tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. Interpretation Person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 occurred between two people with prolonged, unprotected exposure while Patient 1 was symptomatic. Despite active symptom monitoring and testing of symptomatic and some asymptomatic contacts, no further transmission was detected. Funding None.

During May 20-October 13, 2018,* low levels of influenza activity were reported in the United States, with a mix of influenza A and B viruses circulating. Seasonal influenza activity in the Southern Hemisphere was low overall, with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 predominating in many regions. Antigenic testing of available influenza A and B viruses indicated that no significant antigenic drift in circulating viruses had emerged. In late September, the components for the 2019 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine were selected and included an incremental update to the A(H3N2) vaccine virus used in egg-based vaccine manufacturing; no change was recommended for the A(H3N2) component of cell-manufactured or recombinant influenza vaccines. Annual influenza vaccination is the best method for preventing influenza illness and its complications, and all persons aged ≥6 months who do not have contraindications should receive influenza vaccine, preferably before the onset of influenza circulation in their community, which often begins in October and peaks during December-February. Health care providers should offer vaccination by the end of October and should continue to recommend and administer influenza vaccine to previously unvaccinated patients throughout the 2018-19 influenza season (1). In addition, during May 20-October 13, a small number of nonhuman influenza "variant" virus infections† were reported in the United States; most were associated with exposure to swine. Although limited human-to-human transmission might have occurred in one instance, no ongoing community transmission was identified. Vulnerable populations, especially young children and other persons at high risk for serious influenza complications, should avoid swine barns at agricultural fairs, or close contact with swine.§.

Background In recent influenza seasons, the effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccines against circulating A(H3N2) virus has been lower than against A(H1N1)pdm09 and B viruses, even when circulating viruses remained antigenically similar to vaccine components. Methods During the 2016-2017 influenza season, vaccine effectiveness (VE) across age groups and vaccine types was examined among outpatients with acute respiratory illness at 5 US sites using a test-negative design that compared the odds of vaccination among reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza positives and negatives. Results Among 7083 enrollees, 1342 (19%) tested positive for influenza A(H3N2), 648 (9%) were positive for influenza B (including B/Yamagata, n = 577), and 5040 (71%) were influenza negative. Vaccine effectiveness was 40% (95% confidence interval [CI], 32% to 46%) against any influenza virus, 33% (95% CI, 23% to 41%) against influenza A(H3N2) viruses, and 53% (95% CI, 43% to 61%) against influenza B viruses. Conclusions The 2016-2017 influenza vaccines provided moderate protection against any influenza among outpatients but were less protective against influenza A(H3N2) viruses than B viruses. Approaches to improving effectiveness against A(H3N2) viruses are needed.

Background During the 2014-2015 US influenza season, 320 cases of non-mumps parotitis (NMP) among residents of 21 states were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). We conducted an epidemiologic and laboratory investigation to determine viral etiologies and clinical features of NMP during this unusually large occurrence. Methods NMP was defined as acute parotitis or other salivary gland swelling of >2 days duration in a person with a mumps- negative laboratory result. Using a standardized questionnaire, we collected demographic and clinical information. Buccal samples were tested at the CDC for selected viruses, including mumps, influenza, human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs) 1-4, adenoviruses, cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), herpes simplex viruses (HSVs) 1 and 2, and human herpes viruses (HHVs) 6A and 6B. Results Among the 320 patients, 65% were male, median age was 14.5 years (range, 0-90), and 67% reported unilateral parotitis. Commonly reported symptoms included sore throat (55%) and fever (48%). Viruses were detected in 210 (71%) of 294 NMP patients with adequate samples for testing, ≥2 viruses were detected in 37 samples, and 248 total virus detections were made among all samples. These included 156 influenza A(H3N2), 42 HHV6B, 32 EBV, 8 HPIV2, 2 HPIV3, 3 adenovirus, 4 HSV-1, and 1 HSV-2. Influenza A(H3N2), HHV6B, and EBV were the most frequently codetected viruses. Conclusions Our findings suggest that, in addition to mumps, clinicians should consider respiratory viral (influenza) and herpes viral etiologies for parotitis, particularly among patients without epidemiologic links to mumps cases or outbreaks.

Background Estimates of influenza disease burden are broadly useful for public health, helping national and local authorities monitor epidemiologic trends, plan and allocate resources, and promote influenza vaccination. Historically, estimates of the burden of seasonal influenza in the United States, focused mainly on influenza-related mortality and hospitalization, were generated every few years. Since the 2010-2011 influenza season, annual US influenza burden estimates have been generated and expanded to include estimates of influenza-related outpatient medical visits and symptomatic illness in the community. Methods We used routinely collected surveillance data, outbreak field investigations, and proportions of people seeking health care from survey results to estimate the number of illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths due to influenza during six influenza seasons (2010-2011 through 2015-2016). Results We estimate that the number of influenza-related illnesses that have occurred during influenza season has ranged from 9.2 million to 35.6 million, including 140 000 to 710 000 influenza-related hospitalizations. Discussion These annual efforts have strengthened public health communications products and supported timely assessment of the impact of vaccination through estimates of illness and hospitalizations averted. Additionally, annual estimates of influenza burden have highlighted areas where disease surveillance needs improvement to better support public health decision making for seasonal influenza epidemics as well as future pandemics.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the respiratory disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first identified in Wuhan, China and has since become pandemic. In response to the first cases identified in the United States, close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases were investigated to enable early identification and isolation of additional cases and to learn more about risk factors for transmission. Close contacts of nine early travel-related cases in the United States were identified and monitored daily for development of symptoms (active monitoring). Selected close contacts (including those with exposures categorized as higher risk) were targeted for collection of additional exposure information and respiratory samples. Respiratory samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Four hundred four close contacts were actively monitored in the jurisdictions that managed the travel-related cases. Three hundred thirty-eight of the 404 close contacts provided at least basic exposure information, of whom 159 close contacts had ≥1 set of respiratory samples collected and tested. Across all actively monitored close contacts, two additional symptomatic COVID-19 cases (i.e., secondary cases) were identified; both secondary cases were in spouses of travel-associated case patients. When considering only household members, all of whom had ≥1 respiratory sample tested for SARS-CoV-2, the secondary attack rate (i.e., the number of secondary cases as a proportion of total close contacts) was 13% (95% CI: 4-38%). The results from these contact tracing investigations suggest that household members, especially significant others, of COVID-19 cases are at highest risk of becoming infected. The importance of personal protective equipment for healthcare workers is also underlined. Isolation of persons with COVID-19, in combination with quarantine of exposed close contacts and practice of everyday preventive behaviors, is important to mitigate spread of COVID-19.

Background Multivalent influenza vaccine products provide protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B lineage viruses. The 2018–2019 influenza season in the United States included prolonged circulation of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses well-matched to the vaccine strain and A(H3N2) viruses, the majority of which were mismatched to the vaccine. We estimated the number of vaccine-prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths for the season. Methods We used a mathematical model and Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate numbers and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of influenza-associated outcomes prevented by vaccination in the United States. The model incorporated age-specific estimates of national 2018–2019 influenza vaccine coverage, influenza virus–specific vaccine effectiveness from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, and disease burden estimated from population-based rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations through the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network. Results Influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million (95%UI, 3.4 million–7.1 million) illnesses, 2.3 million (95%UI, 1.8 million–3.8 million) medical visits, 58 000 (95%UI, 30 000–156 000) hospitalizations, and 3500 (95%UI, 1000–13 000) deaths due to influenza viruses during the US 2018–2019 influenza season. Vaccination prevented 14% of projected hospitalizations associated with A(H1N1)pdm09 overall and 43% among children aged 6 months–4 years. Conclusions Influenza vaccination averted substantial influenza-associated disease including hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, primarily due to effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09. Our findings underscore the value of influenza vaccination, highlighting that vaccines measurably decrease illness and associated healthcare utilization even in a season in which a vaccine component does not match to a circulating virus.

Influenza activity* in the United States during the 2018-19 season (September 30, 2018-May 18, 2019) was of moderate severity (1). Nationally, influenza-like illness (ILI)† activity began increasing in November, peaked during mid-February, and returned to below baseline in mid-April; the season lasted 21 weeks,§ making it the longest season in 10 years. Illness attributed to influenza A viruses predominated, with very little influenza B activity. Two waves of influenza A were notable during this extended season: influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses from October 2018 to mid-February 2019 and influenza A(H3N2) viruses from February through May 2019. Compared with the 2017-18 influenza season, rates of hospitalization this season were lower for adults, but were similar for children. Although influenza activity is currently below surveillance baselines, testing for seasonal influenza viruses and monitoring for novel influenza A virus infections should continue year-round. Receiving a seasonal influenza vaccine each year remains the best way to protect against seasonal influenza and its potentially severe consequences.

BackgroundRates of influenza hospitalizations differ by age, but few data are available regarding differences in laboratory-confirmed rates among adults aged ≥65 years.MethodsWe evaluated age-related differences in influenza-associated hospitalization rates, clinical presentation, and outcomes among 19 760 older adults with laboratory-confirmed influenza at 14 FluSurv-NET sites during the 2011–2012 through 2014–2015 influenza seasons using 10-year age groups.ResultsThere were large stepwise increases in the population rates of influenza hospitalization with each 10-year increase in age. Rates ranged from 101–417, 209–1264, and 562–2651 per 100 000 persons over 4 influenza seasons in patients aged 65–74 years, 75–84 years, and ≥85 years, respectively. Hospitalization rates among adults aged 75–84 years and ≥85 years were 1.4–3.0 and 2.2–6.4 times greater, respectively, than rates for adults aged 65–74 years. Among patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza, there were age-related differences in demographics, medical histories, and symptoms and signs at presentation. Compared to hospitalized patients aged 65–74 years, patients aged ≥85 years had higher odds of pneumonia (aOR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0–1.3; P = .01) and in-hospital death or transfer to hospice (aOR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.7–2.6; P < .01).ConclusionsAge-related differences in the incidence and severity of influenza hospitalizations among adults aged ≥65 years can inform prevention and treatment efforts, and data should be analyzed and reported using additional age strata.

Altered mental status in cryptococcal meningitis results in poorer survival, but underlying causes of altered mentation are poorly understood. Within two clinical trials, we assessed risk factors for altered mental status (GCS score

This cross-sectional study examines the respiratory and nonrespiratory diagnoses reported for US adults hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza between 2010 and 2018., Key Points Question Which types of respiratory and nonrespiratory diagnoses were associated with influenza in hospitalized adult patients since the 2009 influenza pandemic? Findings In this cross-sectional analysis of more than 80 000 adults hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza between 2010 and 2018 in the United States, 95% of patients had a respiratory diagnosis, and 46% had a nonrespiratory diagnosis, including 5% with exclusively nonrespiratory diagnoses. Meaning Influenza virus infection may be associated with both respiratory and nonrespiratory diagnoses, highlighting the broad scope of influenza burden of disease., Importance Seasonal influenza virus infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and may be associated with respiratory and nonrespiratory diagnoses. Objective To examine the respiratory and nonrespiratory diagnoses reported for adults hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza between 2010 and 2018 in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional study used data from the US Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET) from October 1 through April 30 of the 2010-2011 through 2017-2018 influenza seasons. FluSurv-NET is a population-based, multicenter surveillance network with a catchment area that represents approximately 9% of the US population. Patients are identified by practitioner-ordered influenza testing. Adults (aged ≥18 years) hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza were included in the study. Exposures FluSurv-NET defines laboratory-confirmed influenza as a positive influenza test result by rapid antigen assay, reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction, direct or indirect fluorescent staining, or viral culture. Main Outcomes and Measures Acute respiratory or nonrespiratory diagnoses were defined using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) discharge diagnosis codes. The analysis included calculation of the frequency of acute respiratory and nonrespiratory diagnoses with a descriptive analysis of patient demographic characteristics, underlying medical conditions, and in-hospital outcomes by respiratory and nonrespiratory diagnoses. Results Of 89 999 adult patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza, 76 649 (median age, 69 years; interquartile range, 55-82 years; 55% female) had full medical record abstraction and at least 1 ICD code for an acute diagnosis. In this study, 94.9% of patients had a respiratory diagnosis and 46.5% had a nonrespiratory diagnosis, including 5.1% with only nonrespiratory diagnoses. Pneumonia (36.3%), sepsis (23.3%), and acute kidney injury (20.2%) were the most common acute diagnoses. Fewer patients with only nonrespiratory diagnoses received antiviral therapy for influenza compared with those with respiratory diagnoses (81.4% vs 88.9%; P

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the public health benefit of yearly influenza vaccinations, CDC estimates the number of influenza cases and hospitalizations averted by vaccine. Available input data on cases and vaccinations is aggregated by month and the estimation model is intentionally simple, raising concerns about the accuracy of estimates. METHODS: We created a synthetic dataset with daily counts of influenza cases and vaccinations, calculated “true” averted cases using a reference model applied to the daily data, aggregated the data by month to simulate data that would actually be available, and evaluated the month-level data with seven test methods (including the current method). Methods with averted case estimates closest to the reference model were considered most accurate. To examine their performance under varying conditions, we re-evaluated the test methods when synthetic data parameters (timing of vaccination relative to cases, vaccination coverage, infection rate, and vaccine effectiveness) were varied over wide ranges. Finally, we analyzed real (i.e., collected by surveillance) data from 2010 to 2017 comparing the current method used by CDC with the best-performing test methods. RESULTS: In the synthetic dataset (population 1 million persons, vaccination uptake 55%, seasonal infection risk without vaccination 12%, vaccine effectiveness 48%) the reference model estimated 28,768 averted cases. The current method underestimated averted cases by 9%. The two best test methods estimated averted cases with

Background During the 2014-2015 influenza season in the United States, 256 cases of influenza-associated parotitis were reported from 27 states. We conducted a case-control study and laboratory investigation to further describe this rare clinical manifestation of influenza. Methods During February 2015-April 2015, we interviewed 50 cases (with parotitis) and 124 ill controls (without parotitis) with laboratory-confirmed influenza; participants resided in 11 states and were matched by age, state, hospital admission status, and specimen collection date. Influenza viruses were characterized using real-time polymerase chain reaction and next-generation sequencing. We compared cases and controls using conditional logistic regression. Specimens from additional reported cases were also analyzed. Results Cases, 73% of whom were aged

Background HIV-infected persons with detectable cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) in blood have increased morbidity and mortality compared with HIV-infected persons who are CrAg-negative. This study examined neurocognitive function among persons with asymptomatic cryptococcal antigenemia. Methods Participants from three prospective HIV cohorts underwent neurocognitive testing at the time of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Cohorts included persons with cryptococcal meningitis (N = 90), asymptomatic CrAg + (N = 87), and HIV-infected persons without central nervous system infection (N = 125). Z-scores for each neurocognitive test were calculated relative to an HIV-negative Ugandan population with a composite quantitative neurocognitive performance Z-score (QNPZ-8) created from eight tested domains. Neurocognitive function was measured pre-ART for all three cohorts and additionally after 4 weeks of ART (and 6 weeks of pre-emptive fluconazole) treatment among asymptomatic CrAg + participants. Results Cryptococcal meningitis and asymptomatic CrAg + participants had lower median CD4 counts (17 and 26 cells/μL, respectively) than the HIV-infected control cohort (233 cells/μL) as well as lower Karnofsky performance status (60 and 70 vs. 90, respectively). The composite QNPZ-8 for asymptomatic CrAg + (−1.80 Z-score) fell between the cryptococcal meningitis cohort (−2.22 Z-score, P = 0.02) and HIV-infected controls (−1.36, P = 0.003). After four weeks of ART and six weeks of fluconazole, the asymptomatic CrAg + cohort neurocognitive performance improved (−1.0 Z-score, P

We examined respiratory viral testing and influenza antiviral prescriptions at a US tertiary care hospital. During the 2010–11 to 2012–13 influenza seasons, antiviral prescriptions among acute respiratory illness (ARI) hospitalizations were associated with viral testing (rate ratio = 15.0), and empiric prescriptions were rare (

Capsule shedding in cerebrospinal fluid is associated with inflammatory and Th2-mediated immune responses in HIV-infected individuals with cryptococcal meningitis. These findings provide important insight into the interactions that occur between the host immune system and the infecting strain of Cryptococcus., Background. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cryptococcal glucuronoxylomannan antigen (CrAg) titers generally correlate with quantitative fungal culture burden; however, correlation is not precise. Some patients have higher CrAg titers with lower fungal burdens and vice versa. We hypothesized that the relative discordancy between CrAg titer and quantitative culture burden reflects the relative degree of CrAg shedding by Cryptococcus neoformans and is associated with human immune responses. Methods. One hundred ninety human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals with cryptococcal meningitis were enrolled in Uganda and South Africa. We compared initial CSF CrAg titers relative to their CSF quantitative cultures to determine low (n = 58), intermediate (n = 68), or high (n = 64) CrAg shedders. We compared cytokines measured by Luminex multiplex assay on cryopreserved CSF and 10-week mortality across shedding groups using linear and logistic regression and distribution of genotypes by multilocus sequence typing. Results. The relative degree of CrAg shedding was positively associated with increasing CSF levels of the following: interleukin (IL)-6, IL-7, IL-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α (each P < 0.01), which are all secreted by antigen-presenting cells and negatively associated with vascular endothelial growth factor (P = .01). In addition, IL-5, IL-13, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, and macrophage chemotactic protein were decreased in low-CrAg shedders compared with intermediate shedders (each P ≤ .01). Type 1 T-helper cells (Th1) cytokine responses and 10-week mortality did not differ between the shedding groups. Cryptococcal genotypes were equally distributed across shedding groups. Conclusions. Discordancy between CrAg shedding and expected shedding based on quantitative fungal burden is associated with detectable immunologic differences in CSF, primarily among secreted cytokines and chemokines produced by antigen-presenting cells and Th2.

Intracranial pressure management with repeat lumbar puncture (LP) was investigated in patients with cryptococcal meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa. Conducting at least 1 additional LP soon after cryptococcal diagnosis was related to decreased risk of acute mortality regardless of initial pressure., Introduction. Cryptococcal meningitis is the most common cause of adult meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa. Raised intracranial pressure (ICP) is common in cryptococcosis. Prior studies suggest elevated ICP is associated with mortality, and guidelines recommend frequent lumbar punctures (LPs) to control ICP. However, the magnitude of the impact of LPs on cryptococcal-related mortality is unknown. Methods. In sum, 248 individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated cryptococcal meningitis, screened for the Cryptococcal Optimal ART Timing (COAT) trial in Uganda and South Africa, were observed. Individuals received an LP to diagnose meningitis, and subsequent therapeutic LPs were recommended for elevated ICP (>250 mmH2O) or new symptoms. We compared survival, through 11 days, between individuals receiving at least 1 therapeutic LP with individuals not receiving therapeutic LPs. The COAT trial randomized subjects at 7–11 days; thus, follow-up stopped at time of death, randomization, or 11 days. Results. Seventy-five (30%) individuals had at least 1 therapeutic LP. Individuals receiving therapeutic LPs had higher cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) opening pressures, higher CSF fungal burdens, and were more likely to have altered mental status at baseline than those with no therapeutic LPs. Thirty-one deaths (18%) occurred among 173 individuals without a therapeutic LP and 5 deaths (7%) among 75 with at least 1 therapeutic LP. The adjusted relative risk of mortality was 0.31 (95% confidence interval: .12–.82). The association was observed regardless of opening pressure at baseline. Conclusions. Therapeutic LPs were associated with a 69% relative improvement in survival, regardless of initial intracranial pressure. The role of therapeutic LPs should be reevaluated.

Cryptococcus neoformans, the most common cause of adult meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa [1], causes 20%–25% of AIDS-related deaths [2, 3]. Despite this substantial burden of disease with cryptococcal meningitis (CM), the mechanisms of immune defense are not well characterized, especially at the site of infection in the human central nervous system (CNS). Cryptococcus is proposed to cross the blood-brain barrier through 3 mechanisms: via endothelial cells when tight junctions are damaged or weakened (paracellular) [4], via brain endothelial cells (transcytosis) [5], or within infected monocytes or macrophages (Trojan horse) [6]. Aerosol infection of mice with Cryptococcus spores elicits a self-limited subclinical pneumonia, accompanied sequentially by local recognition of the fungus by alveolar macrophages and neutrophils, then by monocytes and finally expansion of Cryptococcus-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells [7, 8], which parallels the immunopathogenesis in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) with meningitis [9]. Similarly, in healthy individuals, the initial immune response in the lung involves fungal recognition by innate immune cells and subsequent expansion of Cryptococcus-specific CD4+ T cells to control the infection [7]. In scenarios involving immunodeficiency, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, depletion of CD4+ T cells increases the likelihood of Cryptococcus invasion of the blood-brain barrier to cause meningoencephalitis [8, 10]. The phenotype of infiltrating immune cells at the site of infection in humans with CM is poorly characterized. Tissues from patients with CM but without HIV or other immunodeficiency show robust granulomatous inflammatory responses [11] and CSF pleocytosis [12–14], whereas among those with HIV coinfection, CSF cell counts are lower and predominantly CD8+ rather than CD4+ T cells [15, 16]. In the presence of HIV coinfection, up to 25% of patients with CM treated with antifungal and antiretroviral therapy (ART) [17] will experience paradoxical deterioration due to immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) despite mycologic and virologic suppression [18]. IRIS may manifest as relapsing aseptic meningitis, increased intracranial pressure, new focal neurologic signs, intracranial cryptococcomas, lymphadenopathy, and development of abscesses [19–22]. In the majority of patients with IRIS, fungal burden decreases with antifungal therapy as evidenced by decreased cryptococcal antigen titers and sterile CSF microbiologic cultures [17, 22, 23]; however, the target tissue-specific cellular profile and activation status in CSF remain poorly characterized. In this study, we characterized the lineage, activation, and differentiation of mononuclear cells that migrate across the blood-brain barrier in HIV-infected patients upon initial presentation with CM and at the time of CM-IRIS to better understand the localized host response in IRIS to C. neoformans in this immunocompromised population.

This assay is a major advance in the diagnosis of cryptococcal meningitis., Cryptococcal meningitis is common in sub-Saharan Africa. Given the need for data for a rapid, point-of-care cryptococcal antigen (CRAG) lateral flow immunochromatographic assay (LFA), we assessed diagnostic performance of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture, CRAG latex agglutination, India ink microscopy, and CRAG LFA for 832 HIV-infected persons with suspected meningitis during 2006–2009 (n = 299) in Uganda and during 2010–2012 (n = 533) in Uganda and South Africa. CRAG LFA had the best performance (sensitivity 99.3%, specificity 99.1%). Culture sensitivity was dependent on CSF volume (82.4% for 10 μL, 94.2% for 100 μL). CRAG latex agglutination test sensitivity (97.0%–97.8%) and specificity (85.9%–100%) varied between manufacturers. India ink microscopy was 86% sensitive. Laser thermal contrast had 92% accuracy (R = 0.91, p

Standard electrolyte monitoring and supplementation as compared to sporadic electrolyte monitoring and replacement improves mortality., Background Amphotericin B is the preferred treatment for cryptococcal meningitis, but it has cumulative severe side effects, including nephrotoxicity, hypokalemia, and hypomagnesemia. Amphotericin-induced severe hypokalemia may predispose the patient to cardiac arrhythmias and death, and there is very little data available regarding these toxicities in resource-limited settings. We hypothesized that standardized electrolyte management during amphotericin therapy is essential to minimize toxicity and optimize survival in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods Human immunodeficiency virus-infected, antiretroviral therapy naive adults with cryptococcal meningitis were prospectively enrolled at Mulago Hospital in Kampala, Uganda in 3 sequential cohorts with amphotericin B deoxycholate induction treatment. Intravenous fluid use was intermittent in 2001–2002, and universal in 2006–2012. In 2001–2009, serum potassium (K+) was monitored on days 1, 7, and 14 of treatment with replacement (K+, Mg2+) per clinician discretion. In 2011–2012, K+ was measured on days 1, 5, and approximately every 48 hours thereafter with universal electrolyte (K+, Mg2+) supplementation and standardized replacement. Clinical outcomes were retrospectively compared between fluid and electrolyte management strategies. Results With limited intravenous fluids, the 14-day survival was 49% in 2001–2002. With universal intravenous fluids, the 30-day survival improved to 62% in 2006–2010 (P = .003). In 2011–2012, with universal supplementation of fluids and electrolytes, 30-day cumulative survival improved to 78% (P = .021 vs 2006–2010 cohort). The cumulative incidence of severe hypokalemia (

Background The influenza A (H1N1) pandemic swept across the globe from April 2009 to August 2010 affecting millions. Many WHO Member States relied on antiviral drugs, specifically neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) oseltamivir and zanamivir, to treat influenza patients in critical condition. Such drugs have been found to be effective in reducing severity and duration of influenza illness, and likely reduced morbidity during the pandemic. However, it is less clear whether NAIs used during the pandemic reduced H1N1 mortality. Methods Country-level data on supply of oseltamivir and zanamivir were used to predict H1N1 mortality (per 100,000 people) from July 2009 to August 2010 in forty-two WHO Member States. Poisson regression was used to model the association between NAI supply and H1N1 mortality, with adjustment for economic, demographic, and health-related confounders. Results After adjustment for potential confounders, each 10% increase in kilograms of oseltamivir, per 100,000 people, was associated with a 1.6% reduction in H1N1 mortality over the pandemic period (relative rate (RR) = 0.84 per log increase in oseltamivir supply). While the supply of zanamivir was considerably less than that of oseltamivir in each Member State, each 10% increase in kilogram of active zanamivir, per 100,000, was associated with a 0.3% reduction in H1N1 mortality (RR = 0.97 per log increase). Conclusion While there are limitations to the ecologic nature of these data, this analysis offers evidence of a protective relationship between antiviral drug supply and influenza mortality and supports a role for influenza antiviral use in future pandemics.

BackgroundCryptococcal meningitis (CM) is the most common form of meningitis in Africa. World Health Organization guidelines recommend 14-d amphotericin-based induction therapy; however, this is impractical for many resource-limited settings due to cost and intensive monitoring needs. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to guide stakeholders with respect to optimal CM treatment within resource limitations.Methods and findingsWe conducted a decision analysis to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of six CM induction regimens: fluconazole (800-1,200 mg/d) monotherapy, fluconazole + flucytosine (5FC), short-course amphotericin (7-d) + fluconazole, 14-d of amphotericin alone, amphotericin + fluconazole, and amphotericin + 5FC. We computed actual 2012 healthcare costs in Uganda for medications, supplies, and personnel, and average laboratory costs for three African countries. A systematic review of cryptococcal treatment trials in resource-limited areas summarized 10-wk survival outcomes. We modeled one-year survival based on South African, Ugandan, and Thai CM outcome data, and survival beyond one-year on Ugandan and Thai data. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were determined and used to calculate the cost-effectiveness ratio and ICER. The cost of hospital care ranged from $154 for fluconazole monotherapy to $467 for 14 d of amphotericin + 5FC. Based on 18 studies investigating outcomes for HIV-infected individuals with CM in resource-limited settings, the estimated mean one-year survival was lowest for fluconazole monotherapy, at 40%. The cost-effectiveness ratio ranged from $20 to $44 per QALY. Overall, amphotericin-based regimens had higher costs but better survival. Short-course amphotericin (1 mg/kg/d for 7 d) with fluconazole (1,200 mg/d for14 d) had the best one-year survival (66%) and the most favorable cost-effectiveness ratio, at $20.24/QALY, with an ICER of $15.11 per additional QALY over fluconazole monotherapy. The main limitation of this study is the pooled nature of a systematic review, with a paucity of outcome data with direct comparisons between regimens.ConclusionsShort-course (7-d) amphotericin induction therapy coupled with high-dose (1,200 mg/d) fluconazole is "very cost effective" per World Health Organization criteria and may be a worthy investment for policy-makers seeking cost-effective clinical outcomes. More head-to-head clinical trials are needed on treatments for this neglected tropical disease. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.