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To examine the associations between fasting blood glucose (FBG) trajectories, the changes in FBG over time and the risk of cancer, particularly for gastrointestinal cancer, we enrolled 69,742 participants without diabetes from the Kailuan cohort. FBG trajectories (2006-2010) were modeled by group-based trajectory modeling, and five trajectories were identified: low-increasing (n = 6,275), moderate-stable (n = 44,120), moderate-increasing (n = 10,149), elevated-decreasing (n = 5,244) and elevated-stable (n = 3,954). A total of 1,364 cancer cases were accumulated between 2010 and 2015, including 472 gastrointestinal cancer cases. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to evaluate the associations between FBG trajectory patterns and the risk of cancer. We further assessed the associations while carefully controlling for initial body mass index (BMI) in 2006 and for changes in BMI during 2006-2010. Relative to the moderate-stable group, we found a higher hazard ratio (HR) for overall cancer in the low-increasing group (HR = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.50); and for gastrointestinal cancer in the elevated-stable group (HR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.22-2.26). Moreover, among participants with an initial BMI ≥25 kg/m2 , a positive association with the low-increasing group was observed for both overall cancer and gastrointestinal cancer (HR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.17-2.04; HR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.02-2.66; respectively); among participants with a stable BMI (4.40% loss-5.15% gain), a positive association with the elevated-stable group was observed both for overall cancer and gastrointestinal cancer (HR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.10-1.87; HR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.33-2.86; respectively). Our study observed that FBG trajectories were associated with cancer risk among participants without diabetes, and BMI may modify the associations.

Background: Hot beverage consumption is a probable risk factor for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). No standardized exposure assessment protocol exists. Methods: To compare how alternative metrics discriminate distinct drinking habits, we measured sip temperatures and sizes in an international group of hot beverage drinkers in France (n = 20) and hot porridge consumers (n = 52) in a high ESCC incidence region of China. Building on the knowledge that sip size and temperature affect intraesophageal liquid temperature (IELT), IELTs were predicted by modeling existing data, and compared with first sip temperature and, across all sips, mean temperature and sip-weighted mean temperature. Results: Two contrasting exposure characteristics were observed. Compared with the international group, Chinese porridge consumers took larger first sips [mean difference +17 g; 95% confidence interval (CI), 13.3–20.7] of hotter (+9.5°C; 95% CI, 6.2–12.7) liquid, and their mean sip size did not vary greatly across sips, but the former groups increased in size as temperature decreased. This resulted in higher predicted IELTs (mean 61°C vs. 42.4°C) and sip-weighted temperatures (76.9°C vs. 56°C) in Chinese porridge consumers, and compared with first sip and mean temperature, these two metrics separated the groups to a greater extent. Conclusions: Distinguishing thermal exposure characteristics between these groups was greatly enhanced by measuring sip sizes. Temperature at first sip alone is suboptimal for assessing human exposure to hot foods and beverages, and future studies should include sip size measurements in exposure assessment protocols. Impact: This study provides a logistically feasible framework for assessing human exposure to hot beverages.

BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.MethodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.ResultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749–0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.ConclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer.

OBJECTIVE Research on generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and its association with esophageal cancer (EC) is sparse. The study aimed to explore the association between GAD and EC. METHODS A multicenter, population-based study in high-risk regions for EC (ECHRRs) was conducted from 2017 to 2019. All participants received free endoscopy screening. If the esophageal endoscopy results were suspicious, the pathological biopsy was performed to confirm normal, esophagitis, low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN), high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (HGIN), and EC. Information on participants' exposure to risk factors was collected. GAD was assessed with Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale-7. RESULTS With esophageal endoscopy, 25,650 participants in ECHRRs were examined, 9586 of whom were suspicious and confirmed by esophageal pathology. The detection rate of EC and precancerous lesions was 6.83% (1751/25,650), with 1377 LGIN (5.37%), 272 HGIN (1.06%), and 102 EC (0.40%) cases. The overall mean GAD score (95% CI) and prevalence among 25,650 participants with endoscopy were 1.96 (1.93-1.99) and 16.90%, respectively. The mean GAD score and prevalence among 9586 participants with pathology were 1.96 (1.91-2.02) and 17.98%, respectively. The mean GAD scores of patients confirmed with normal, esophagitis, LGIN, HGIN, and EC were 1.73 (1.62-1.85), 1.91 (1.85-1.97), 1.94 (1.80-2.08), 3.98 (3.73-4.23). and 2.97 (2.49-3.45), respectively (p < 0.001). The corresponding prevalence of GAD were 5.21%, 18.72%, 17.72%, 43.75%, and 36.27%, respectively (p < 0.001). The age- and gender-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) between GAD and each esophageal lesion type were 1.02 (0.99-1.04), 1.01 (0.98-1.04), 1.27 (1.21-1.33), and 1.16 (1.08-1.24), respectively. The ORs (95% CIs) of the positive associations were 1.08 (1.05-1.12), 1.03 (0.99-1.07), 1.35 (1.29-1.42), and 1.19 (1.10-1.29) after further adjustment for potential confounders (all p < 0.001). Sensitivity analysis showed that the positive association persisted. CONCLUSIONS GAD was significantly higher in patients with EC and precancerous lesions. Focusing on and alleviating anxiety in high-risk groups (including patients with HGIN and EC) may be an effective strategy for EC prevention and control. Further prospective studies are warranted to validate the results.

Objective To explore the natural history of severe dysplasia/carcinoma in situ (SD/CIS) patients and to evaluate the efficacy of endoscopic treatment to SD/CIS patients. Methods Between January 2005 and December 2009, a population-based prospective screening program on esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) was performed in Linzhou, China, with endoscopic screening plus iodine staining. All the eligible histologically confirmed SD/CIS patients were followed up through the door-to-door follow-up and local cancer registry. The endpoint was diagnosed as ESCC or the December 31st, 2016. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Log-rank test were used to compare the survival rates among treated and untreated patients. Results A total of 175 SD/CIS patients were enrolled and grouped by whether they received endoscopic treatment. Eleven-year cumulative incidence rates for untreated and treated SD/CIS patients were 10.7% [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 6.9-16.1] and 3.2% (95% CI: 1.4-7.0), respectively. The ESCC incidence free survival rate, and all-cause incidence and mortality free survival rates were all significantly higher in the treated patientsvs. untreated patients (P=0.043, P=0.008 and P=0.015, respectively). The ESCC mortality free survival rate showed no significant differences between the two groups (P=0.847). Conclusions The cumulative incidence rate of SD/CIS patients to ESCC was much lower than previously reported. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that endoscopic treatment could increase the ESCC and all-cause disease-free survival rates of SD/CIS patients significantly.

Background The aim of this retrospective study is to identify epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations in non-small cell lung cancer patients and to compare the long-term postoperative outcomes in different EGFR-TKI-targeted therapy effects between the different EGFR mutation groups. Methods A total of 2094 postoperative non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with EGFR gene detection were collected in the Department of Pathology in the Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from January 2003 to January 2014. Three hundred sixty-three patients were treated with EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) after surgery: 184 harbored the exon 19 deletion mutation and 179 cases carried the exon 21 L858R point mutation. The end points included progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and the response rate. Results OS was increased in the EGFR exon 19 deletion group compared with the exon 21 L858R point mutation group (92 vs. 65 months; P

Background: To investigate the association between fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels and the risk of incident primary liver cancer (PLC) in Chinese males, a large prospective cohort was performed in the current study. Methods: A total of 109 169 males participating in the routine checkups every two years were recruited in the Kailuan male cohort study since May 2006. Cox proportional hazards regression models and restricted cubic spline (RCS) were used to evaluate the association between levels of baseline FBG and the risk of incident PLC. Results: Compared to the males with normal FBG (3.9⩽FBG

// Ni Li 1, * , Dong Hang 2, * , Lin Yang 1, 3 , Xiaoshuang Feng 1 , Zhangyan Lyu 1 , Shuanghua Xie 1 , Jing Zhou 2 , Lingying Wu 4 , Xiaoguang Li 4 , Nan Li 4 , Min Cheng 4 , Kai Zhang 5 , Zhihui Zhang 6 , Hong Cui 1 , Jian Yin 1, 2 , Zhibin Hu 2 , Hongbing Shen 2 and Min Dai 1 1 Program Office for Cancer Screening in Urban China, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China 2 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China 3 Department of Hospital Infection Control, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Fourth Medical College of Peking University, Beijing, China 4 Department of Gynecology Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China 5 Department of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China 6 Department of Pathology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China * Authors contributed equally to this work Correspondence to: Min Dai, email: daimin2002@hotmail.com Ni Li, email: lini1240@hotmail.com Keywords: human papillomavirus, type-specific persistence, cervical cancer, prospective study Received: October 13, 2016 Accepted: August 06, 2017 Published: August 11, 2017 ABSTRACT Persistence of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) represents the necessary cause of cervical cancer. Researching natural history of HPV infection is important to identify high-risk population of cervical cancer. Since HPV infection is population-specific, the findings in western populations could not be simply extended to Chinese and Asian females. This study investigated the type-specific persistence of HPV and related factors among Daqing City women in China. A total of 1759 women aged 18–80 years were enrolled at baseline. Cervical cell specimens were collected for cytological examination and HPV detection. HPV-positive individuals with normal cytology were followed up after 12 months. The results showed that HPV prevalence was 8.64% at baseline, of which 85 HPV-positive cases with normal cytology were followed up. The one-year type-specific persistence of HPV and high-risk types were 34.12% (29/85) and 34.25% (25/73), respectively. The top three high-risk types were HPV16 (7/17, 41.18%), HPV18 (5/8, 62.50%) and HPV58 (7/15, 46.67%). Age > 50 years was significantly associated with a higher risk of HPV persistence compared to ≤ 50 (OR = 2.73; 95% CI: 1.07, 6.93). In conclusion, approximately one-third of Daqing City women with HPV infection had at least one-year viral persistence, most of which were high-risk types. Older age represents a risk factor of HPV persistence.

Background: Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is widely accepted to be the most important cause of gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA), while its role in the development of cardia gastric adenocarcinoma (CGA) is not well defined. We aimed to investigate current H. pylori infection in relation to the severity of both precancerous and cancerous lesions of the gastric cardia in an Asian population at high risk of CGA. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Linzhou County, Henan Province, China. Two thousand and three (2,003) randomly selected participants with data on current H. pylori infection, assayed by 13C-UBT, and a sequence of histological diagnoses of the gastric cardia mucosa were analyzed. Results: Of 2,003 subjects, 828 (41.33%) were currently infected with H. pylori. The prevalence of current H. pylori infection increased with increasing severity of histological lesions, from 34.12% in subjects with normal gastric cardia mucosa to 52.17% in subjects with cardia high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (CHIN)/cardia gastric adenocarcinoma (CGA) (P for trend

IntroductionOesophageal cancer (OC) is one of the most common cancers worldwide and about 50% of all new cases occurred in China. Population-based screening has been conducted in high-risk areas in China since 1970s, however, a few factors have limited the integration of the results from previous studies and the sharing of existing resources, such as the difference in screening methods and protocols, inconsistencies in questionnaires for risk factors investigation, lack of standards for sample collection and incomplete follow-up information.Methods and analysisThe National Cohort of Esophageal Cancer-Prospective Cohort Study of Esophageal Cancer and Precancerous Lesions based on High-Risk Population (NCEC-HRP) is a prospective cohort study of OC screening based on high-risk population in China supported by the National Key R&D Programme. Eight areas located at eastern, central and western China are selected as screening centres to represent three economical-geographical regions. All local residents aged 40–69 years in the selected areas are invited to take endoscopic examination and risk factors investigation unless they meet the exclusion criteria. The recruitment began on June 2017 and a total of 100 000 participants will be enrolled by December 2020 and all subjects will be followed for a long time. This study is designed as open-ended and has broad research aims. Summary statistics for baseline information will be reported after the completion of recruitment. We will develop a series of standards and guidelines for OC screening during the study. An open and shared research platform linked with epidemiological databases and biobank will be built up for further research.Ethics and disseminationThe study is approved by the Ethics Committee of Cancer Institute and Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College (approval number 16-171/1250). The findings of the study will be disseminated through scientific peer-reviewed journals as well as the public via the study website (http://www.ncec-china.cn).Trial registration numberChiCTR-EOC-17010553; Pre-results.

Objective The preferred chemotherapy regimen for metastatic pancreatic cancer remains a matter of controversy. In the present study, we aimed to assess and rank the effectiveness and toxicity of all of the available chemotherapy regimens included in the last 15 years' randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinomas objectively. Methods PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Collaboration database, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched for RCTs comparing chemotherapy regimens as first-line treatment for metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinomas. Using a Bayesian network meta-analysis, we compared and ranked all included chemotherapy regimens in terms of the overall survival, progression-free survival, response rate, and hematological toxicity. Results We identified 2,206 articles and included in the analysis 46 eligible articles reporting 44 RCTs with a total of 9,133 patients and 48 first-line intravenous systemic chemotherapy regimens. The models showed a good fit to the data. The top-ranked chemotherapy regimen for the overall survival was FP (simplified leucovorin + fluorouracil + nab-paclitaxel), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.45 versus gemcitabine monotherapy (95% credible interval 0.28-0.71). The regimen ranked first for the progression-free survival was gemcitabine + erlotinib + bevacizumab (HR 0.39, 0.23-0.62). GS (gemcitabine + S-1) had the highest overall response rate [odds ratio (OR) versus gemcitabine monotherapy 7.06, 1.15-51.15]. GemCape (gemcitabine + capecitabine) + erlotinib was ranked the most hematologically toxic (OR 7.78, 0.75-95.60). Conclusion The available evidence suggests that FP ranked first for metastatic pancreatic cancer in terms of the overall survival. GemCape + erlotinib ranked the most toxic.

Shuisheng Zhang,1,2 Weimin Xie,3 Yinghua Zou,4 Shuanghua Xie,5 Jianwei Zhang,1 Wei Yuan,6,7 Jie Ma,6–8 Jiuda Zhao,9 Cuiling Zheng,10 Yingtai Chen,1 Chengfeng Wang1 1Department of Pancreatic and Gastric Surgery, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, 2Department of General Surgery, Peking University Third Hospital, 3Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 4Department of Interventional Radiology and Vascular Surgery, Peking University First Hospital, 5Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Health Statistics, 6State Key Laboratory of Molecular Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, 7Clinical Immunology Center, Chinese Academy of Medical Science, 8Department of Biotherapy, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Beijing, 9Department of Medical Oncology, Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University, Xining, 10Department of Clinical Laboratory, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China Background: Systemic chemotherapy is the standard treatment for locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer, but there is no consensus on the optimum regimen. We aimed to compare and rank the locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma chemotherapy regimens evaluated in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in the past 15 years.Materials and methods: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Collaboration database, and ­ClinicalTrials.gov were searched for RCTs comparing chemotherapy regimens as first-line treatment for locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinomas. By using Bayesian network meta-analysis, we compared and ranked all included chemotherapy regimens in terms of overall survival, progression-free survival, response rate, and hematological toxicity.Results: The analysis included 68 RCTs, with 14,908 patients and 63 treatment strategies. For overall survival, NSC-631570 (hazard ratio [HR] vs gemcitabine monotherapy 0.44, 95% credible interval: 0.24–0.76) and gemcitabine+NSC-631570 (HR 0.45, 0.24–0.86) were the two top-ranked chemotherapy regimens. For progression-free survival, PEFG (cisplatin + epirubicin + fluorouracil+ gemcitabine) ranked first (HR 0.51, 0.34–0.77). PG (gemcitabine + pemetrexed) (odds ratio [OR] 4.68, 2.24–9.64) and FLEC (fluorouracil + leucovorin + epirubicin + carboplatin) (OR 4.52, 1.14–24.00) were ranked the most hematologically toxic, with gastrazole having the least toxicity (OR 0.03, 0.00–0.46).Conclusion: The chemotherapy regimens NSC-631570 and gemcitabine+NSC-631570 were ranked the most efficacious for locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinomas in terms of overall survival, which warrants further confirmation in large-scale RCTs. Keywords: locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma, chemotherapy regimen, overall survival, rank

To investigate the independent and joint associations of blood lipids and lipoproteins with lung cancer risk in Chinese males, a prospective cohort study was conducted. A total of 109,798 males with baseline information on total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and non-HDL were prospectively observed from 2006 to 2015 for cancer incidence. Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During a 9-year follow-up, a total of 986 lung cancer cases were identified. Multivariable analyses showed that both males with low TC (HRQ1vs.Q2 = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.02-1.60) and males with high TC (HRQ5vs.Q2 = 1.30, 95%CI: 1.04-1.63) had an increased lung cancer risk, and the U-shaped association was also revealed in the RCS analysis (poverall = 0.013, pnonlinear = 0.006). Furthermore, both low TG (HRQ1vs.Q2 = 1.24, 95%CI: 0.99-1.54) and high TG (HRQ5vs.Q2 = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.01-1.59) were associated with increased lung cancer risk, while low LDL-C (HRQ1vs.Q2 = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.11-1.72) was associated with increased lung cancer risk. When TC, TG and LDL-C were considered jointly, the number of abnormal indicators was linearly associated with an increased risk of lung cancer (ptrend < 0.001), as subjects with three abnormal indicators had a twofold higher risk of developing lung cancer (HR = 2.02, 95%CI: 1.62-2.54). Notably, these associations were statistically significant among never smokers, never drinkers and overweight/obese males. These findings suggest that dyslipidemia may potentially be a modifiable risk factor that has key scientific and clinical significance for lung cancer prevention.

HPV16 is the most carcinogenic HPV type, but only a minority of HPV16 infections progress to cancer. Intratype genetic variants of HPV16 have been suggested to confer differential carcinogenicity. To investigate risk implications of HPV16 variants among Chinese women, a case-control study was conducted with 298 cervical cancer patients and 85 controls (all HPV16-positive). HPV16 isolates were predominantly of the A variant lineage, and variants of A4 (previously named “Asian”) sublineage were common. A4/Asian variants were significantly associated with increased risk of cervical cancer compared to A1–3 (OR=1.72, 95% CI=1.04–2.85). Furthermore, a meta-analysis including 703 cases and 323 controls from East Asia confirmed the association (OR=2.82, 95% CI=1.44–5.52). In conclusion, A4 variants appear to predict higher risk of cervical cancer among HPV16-positive women, which may provide clues to the genetic basis of differences in the carcinogenicity of HPV16 variants.