Search

Examining how past human populations responded to environmental and climatic changes is a central focus of the historical sciences. The use of summed probability distributions (SPD) of radiocarbon dates as a proxy for estimating relative population sizes provides a widely applicable method in this research area. Paleodemographic reconstructions and modeling with SPDs, however, are stymied by a lack of accepted methods for model fitting, tools for assessing the demographic impact of environmental or climatic variables, and a means for formal multi-model comparison. These deficiencies severely limit our ability to reliably resolve crucial questions of past human-environment interactions. We propose a solution using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to fit complex demographic models to observed SPDs. Using a case study from Rapa Nui (Easter Island), a location that has long been the focus of debate regarding the impact of environmental and climatic changes on its human population, we find that past populations were resilient to environmental and climatic challenges. Our findings support a growing body of evidence showing stable and sustainable communities on the island. The ABC framework offers a novel approach for exploring regions and time periods where questions of climate-induced demographic and cultural change remain unresolved., Summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates can be used to estimate past demography, but methods to test for associations with environmental change are lacking. Here, DiNapoli et al. propose an approach using Approximate Bayesian Computation and illustrate it in a case study of Rapa Nui.

The new IntCal20 radiocarbon record continues decades of successful practice by employing one calibration curve as an approximation for different regions across the hemisphere. Here we investigate three radiocarbon time-series of archaeological and historical importance from the Mediterranean-Anatolian region, which indicate, or may include, offsets from IntCal20 (~0–22 14C years). While modest, these differences are critical for our precise understanding of historical and environmental events across the Mediterranean Basin and Near East. Offsets towards older radiocarbon ages in Mediterranean-Anatolian wood can be explained by a divergence between high-resolution radiocarbon dates from the recent generation of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) versus dates from previous technologies, such as low-level gas proportional counting (LLGPC) and liquid scintillation spectrometry (LSS). However, another reason is likely differing growing season lengths and timings, which would affect the seasonal cycle of atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations recorded in different geographic zones. Understanding and correcting these offsets is key to the well-defined calendar placement of a Middle Bronze Age tree-ring chronology. This in turn resolves long-standing debate over Mesopotamian chronology in the earlier second millennium BCE. Last but not least, accurate dating is needed for any further assessment of the societal and environmental impact of the Thera/Santorini volcanic eruption.

Native animal breeds constitute an invaluable pool of genetic resources in a changing environment. Discovering native breeds and safeguarding their genetic diversity through specific conservation programs is therefore of high importance. Endogenous retroviruses have proved to be a reliable genetic marker for studying the demographic history of sheep (Ovis aries). Previous research has revealed two migratory episodes of domesticated sheep from the Middle East to Europe. The first episode included predominantly ‘primitive populations’, while the second and most recent is hypothesised to have included sheep with markedly improved wool production. To examine whether the recently discovered Kihnu native sheep in Estonia have historically been part of the first migratory episode and to what extent they have preserved primitive genetic characters, we analysed retroviral insertions in 80 modern Kihnu sheep and 83 ancient sheep from the Bronze Age to Modern Period (850 BCE–1950 CE). We identified that the Kihnu sheep have preserved ‘primitive’, ‘Nordic’, and other ‘ancient’ retrotypes that were present both in archaeological and modern samples, confirming their shared ancestry and suggesting that contemporary Kihnu native sheep originate from the first migratory episode. However, over the course of history, there has been a gradual decrease in the frequency of primitive retrotypes. Furthermore, Kihnu sheep possessed several ‘novel’ retrotypes that were absent in archaeological individuals, but were shared with improvement breeds, suggesting recent crossing within the last two centuries. To preserve these ancient lineages, our results are being applied in the conservation program of the Kihnu Native Sheep Society.