1. Comparative accuracy of prognostic models for short-term mortality in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients: CAP-ACLF
- Author
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Guan Huei Lee, Samir Shah, CE Eapen, Qin Ning, Anand V. Kulkarni, Harshad Devarbhavi, George K. K. Lau, Ananta Shrestha Prasad, Manish Sharma, Sombat Treeprasertsuk, Pk Rao, Jinhua Hu, Omesh Goyal, Vandana Midha, Zaigham Abbas, Saeed Hamid, Jose D. Sollano, Laurentius A. Lesmana, AS Butt, Mamun Al Mahtab, Ajit Sood, V G Mohan Prasad, Debashish Chowdhury, Manoj Kumar Sahu, Wasim Jafri, Yu Chen, Diana A. Payawal, Akash Shukla, Ajay Duseja, Cosmas Rinaldi A Lesmana, Osamu Yokosuka, Ashok Choudhury, Dong Joon Kim, Virendra Singh, R. K. Dhiman, Shiv Kumar Sarin, Sunil Taneja, Tao Chen, Fazal Karim, Soek Siam Tan, Abdul Kadir Dokmeci, Nipun Verma, Zhongping Duan, and Hasmik Ghazinian
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,Hepatology ,business.industry ,Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure ,Bayes Theorem ,Odds ratio ,Prognosis ,medicine.disease ,Colorectal surgery ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Predictive Value of Tests ,Bayesian information criterion ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Internal medicine ,Cohort ,medicine ,Humans ,030211 gastroenterology & hepatology ,Akaike information criterion ,business ,Prognostic models ,Progressive disease ,APACHE - Abstract
Multiple predictive models of mortality exist for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients that often create confusion during decision-making. We studied the natural history and evaluated the performance of prognostic models in ACLF patients.Prospectively collected data of ACLF patients from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) was analyzed for 30-day outcomes. The models evaluated at days 0, 4, and 7 of presentation for 30-day mortality were: AARC (model and score), CLIF-C (ACLF score, and OF score), NACSELD-ACLF (model and binary), SOFA, APACHE-II, MELD, MELD-Lactate, and CTP. Evaluation parameters were discrimination (c-indices), calibration [accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive/negative predictive values (PPV/NPV)], Akaike/Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC/BIC), Nagelkerke-RThirty-day survival of the cohort (n = 2864) was 64.9% and was lowest for final-AARC-grade-III (32.8%) ACLF. Performance parameters of all models were best at day 7 than at day 4 or day 0 (p 0.05 for C-indices of all models except NACSELD-ACLF). On comparison, day-7 AARC model had the numerically highest c-index 0.872, best accuracy 84.0%, PPV 87.8%, RAPASL-ACLF is often a progressive disease, and models assessed up to day 7 of presentation reliably predict 30-day mortality. Day-7 AARC model is a statistically robust tool for classifying risk of death and accurately predicting 30-day outcomes with relatively lower prediction errors. Day-7 AARC score 12 may be used as a futility criterion in APASL-ACLF patients.
- Published
- 2021
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