1. Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
- Author
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Daniel Mair, Adrian Signell, Daniel Laydon, Nadua Bayzid, Clare M McCann, Flavia Flaviani, Thomas Connor, Samir Bhatt, Catherine Moore, Dr Benjamin Lindsey, Malte Pinckert, Jane Masoli, Rachel Blacow, Jacqui Prieto, Ian Harrison, Scott Thurston, Lance Turtle, Thushan De Silva, Gregory Young, Natalie Groves, Andrew Nelson, Angie Lackenby, Lily Geidelberg, Mili Estee Torok, Brendan Payne, Katy Gaythorpe, Sonia Goncalves, Ewan Harrison, Andrew Rambaut, Angela Beckett, David Partridge, Swapnil Mishra, Dimitris Grammatopoulos, Judith Breuer, Jenna Nichols, Erik Volz, Sharon Glaysher, Harry David Wilson, Jack Lee, Marta Gallis, Christophe Fraser, Susan Hopkins, Patrick McClure, Derrick Crook, Juan Ledesma, Theocharis Tsoleridis, Natasha Palmalux, Matthew Dorman, Helen Lowe, Kordo Saeed, Oliver Ratmann, Darren Smith, Gilberto Betancor Quintana, Alan McNally, Matthew Bashton, Steven Rudder, Dennis Wang, Joseph Chappell, Elias Allara, Volz, Erik [0000-0001-6268-8937], Mishra, Swapnil [0000-0002-8759-5902], Geidelberg, Lily [0000-0002-8057-1844], Laydon, Daniel J [0000-0003-4270-3321], Jackson, Ben [0000-0002-9981-0649], Gaythorpe, Katy [0000-0003-3734-9081], Kwiatkowski, Dominic P [0000-0002-5023-0176], Flaxman, Seth [0000-0002-2477-4217], Gandy, Axel [0000-0002-6777-0451], Rambaut, Andrew [0000-0003-4337-3707], Ferguson, Neil M [0000-0002-1154-8093], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Medical Research Council (MRC)
- Subjects
The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium ,Adult ,0301 basic medicine ,Time Factors ,Adolescent ,General Science & Technology ,Lineage (evolution) ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,Basic Reproduction Number ,Population genetics ,Genome, Viral ,Biology ,law.invention ,Evolution, Molecular ,Young Adult ,03 medical and health sciences ,Age Distribution ,0302 clinical medicine ,law ,Phylogenetics ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Child ,Phylogeny ,Aged ,Aged, 80 and over ,COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium ,Science & Technology ,Multidisciplinary ,Generation time ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Infant, Newborn ,COVID-19 ,Infant ,Middle Aged ,Transmissibility (vibration) ,3. Good health ,Multidisciplinary Sciences ,030104 developmental biology ,Transmission (mechanics) ,England ,Evolutionary biology ,Child, Preschool ,Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus ,Science & Technology - Other Topics ,Basic reproduction number - Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 by Public Health England1, was first identified in the UK in late summer to early autumn 20202. Whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing for COVID-19 show an extremely rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during autumn 2020, suggesting that it has a selective advantage. Here we show that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that B.1.1.7 has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if it has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with cases of B.1.1.7 including a larger share of under 20-year-olds than non-VOC cases. We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers for B.1.1.7 and co-circulating lineages using SGTF and genomic data. The best-supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups, but all analyses agreed that B.1.1.7 has a substantial transmission advantage over other lineages, with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.
- Published
- 2021