1. A revised prediction model for natural conception
- Author
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Alexandra J. Bensdorp, Jan Willem van der Steeg, Pieternel Steures, J. Dik F. Habbema, Peter G.A. Hompes, Patrick M.M. Bossuyt, Fulco van der Veen, Ben W.J. Mol, Marinus J.C. Eijkemans, Y.M. van Kasteren, P.F.M. van der Heijden, W.A. Schöls, M.H. Mochtar, G.L.M. Lips, J. Dawson, H.R. Verhoeve, S. Milosavljevic, P.G.A. Hompes, L.J. van Dam, A.V. Sluijmer, H.E. Bobeck, R.E. Bernardus, M.C.S. Vermeer, J.P. Dörr, P.J.Q. van der Linden, H.J.M. Roelofs, J.M. Burggraaff, G.J.E. Oosterhuis, M.H. Schouwink, P.X.J.M. Bouckaert, F.M.C. Delemarre, C.J.C.M. Hamilton, M. van Hoven, M.H. Emanuel, C.N.M. Renckens, J.A. Land, J.H. Schagen-Van Leeuwen, J.A.M. Kremer, C. van Katwijk, M.H.A. van Hooff, H.J.H.M. Van Dessel, F.J.M. Broekmans, H.J.L.A. Ruis, C.A.M. Koks, P. Bourdrez, W.W.J. Riedijk, B.J. Cohlen, Public Health, Obstetrics and gynaecology, ACS - Atherosclerosis & ischemic syndromes, Amsterdam Reproduction & Development (AR&D), Pediatric surgery, Obstetrics and Gynaecology, ARD - Amsterdam Reproduction and Development, APH - Personalized Medicine, APH - Methodology, Epidemiology and Data Science, Center for Reproductive Medicine, APH - Quality of Care, Other Research, and Other departments
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Adult ,Male ,0301 basic medicine ,Infertility ,medicine.medical_specialty ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Population ,Reproductive medicine ,Fertility ,Healthcare improvement science Radboud Institute for Health Sciences [Radboudumc 18] ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Natural conception ,Prediction model ,Journal Article ,medicine ,Humans ,Prospective Studies ,Prospective cohort study ,education ,media_common ,Gynecology ,education.field_of_study ,Pregnancy ,Models, Statistical ,030219 obstetrics & reproductive medicine ,Obstetrics ,business.industry ,Subfertility ,Obstetrics and Gynecology ,Prognosis ,medicine.disease ,Fertility clinic ,030104 developmental biology ,Reproductive Medicine ,Fertilization ,Female ,business ,Body mass index ,Developmental Biology - Abstract
One of the aims in reproductive medicine is to differentiate between couples that have favourable chances of conceiving naturally and those that do not. Since the development of the prediction model of Hunault, characteristics of the subfertile population have changed. The objective of this analysis was to assess whether additional predictors can refine the Hunault model and extend its applicability. Consecutive subfertile couples with unexplained and mild male subfertility presenting in fertility clinics were asked to participate in a prospective cohort study. We constructed a multivariable prediction model with the predictors from the Hunault model and new potential predictors. The primary outcome, natural conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy, was observed in 1053 women of the 5184 included couples 120%). All predictors of the Hunault model were selected into the revised model plus an additional seven Ivvoman's body mass index, cycle length, basal FSH levels, tubal status, history of previous pregnancies in the current relationship [ongoing pregnancies after natural conception, fertility treatment or miscarriages), semen volume, and semen morphology. Predictions from the revised model seem to concur better with observed pregnancy rates compared with the Hunault model; c-statistic of 0.71 195% CI 0.69 to 0.731 compared with 0.59 195% CI 0.57 to 0.61). (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Reproductive Healthcare Ltd
- Published
- 2017
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