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The objective of this study was to assess predictive value of various arterial markers for cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS).A longitudinal study with the follow-up period of 3.9 ± 1.7 years investigated 2728 middle-aged (53.9 ± 6.2 years old, 63% women) MetS subjects without overt CV disease. The study cohort was comprised of the participants of the Lithuanian High Cardiovascular Risk primary prevention program. The baseline assessment included the evaluation of brachial flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid stiffness index, aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV), aortic augmentation index (AIx), and cardio-ankle vascular index). The data on the cardiovascular outcome (fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke) was collected by using the databases of the two major national registries.Over the follow-up period, 83 (3%) patients had at least one cardiovascular event. In a univariate analysis, occurrence of CV events was associated with the following parameters: higher mean blood pressure, aPWV, AIx and cIMT, and lower FMD (all p .05). In Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, the occurrence of CV event was associated with an increase in aPWV (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04-1.60, p = .019), AIx (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.16-2.02, p = .003), and cIMT (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.14-1.50, p .001), and with the decrease in FMD (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.71-0.97, p = .016) even after the adjustment for age, gender, and common cardiometabolic risk factors. In a two-level survival trees analysis, we established that patients with cIMT 794 mcm had higher CV risk (p .001) and their prognosis was further compromised by aPWV 11.1 m/s (p = .023). Meanwhile, in patients with cIMT ≤ 794mcm, the FMD cut-off point of 6.5% further stratified the risk (p = .003).In our prospective study, CV risk in the middle-aged patients with MetS was associated with an increase in cIMT and aPWV, and with a decrease in FMD.

Summary Cardiovascular diseases are the main cause of premature death worldwide. More than half of deaths were caused by cardiovascular diseases in 2017 in Lithuania. Primary prevention programmes encourage both medical staff and general population to pay attention to potential health issues as well as attempt to eradicate risk factors causing cardiovascular diseases. “A Funding Programme for the Screening and Preventive Management of the High Cardiovascular Risk Individuals” published in Lithuania has been implemented as of 2006. Analysis of the results of the programme shows that the prevalent cases of arterial hypertension are gradually declining. However, the prevalence of dyslipidaemia is still not decreasing. The prevalence of other modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors has erratic trends with a slight overall decline. Consequently, mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases has decreased by more than one third among middle-age population over the past 10 years. Having higher availability of the anti-hypertensive and anti-lipid medications already achieved, the future plans include the aim of further reducing elevated blood pressure and effectively treating dyslipidaemia. In order to implement a strategy that focuses on smoking prevention, promotion of healthy nutrition and physical activity, a significant contribution is required from the state authorities.