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Aboveground biomass (AGB) in grasslands directly reflects the net primary productivity, making it a sensitive indicator of grassland resource quality and ecological degradation. Accurately estimating AGB over large regions to reveal long-term AGB evolution trends remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we divided Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) grasslands into three study regions based on their spatial distribution of grassland types. We combined remote sensing data with ground-based sample data collected over the past 19 years from 6114 field plots using the Google Earth Engine platform. We constructed random forest (RF) and traditional regression AGB inversion models for each region and selected the best-performing model through accuracy assessment to estimate IMAR grassland AGB for the period 2000–2022. We also examined the trends in AGB changes and identified the driving forces affecting IMAR grasslands through the application of Theil-Sen estimation, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, and the Geodetector model. The main findings are as follows: (1) Compared with the univariate parametric traditional regression model, the AGB monitoring accuracy of the multivariate non-parametric RF model in the three study regions increased by 5.94%, 5.08% and 19.14%, respectively. (2) The average AGB per unit area of IMAR grasslands from 2000 to 2022 was 731.41 kg/hm2, with alpine meadow having the highest average AGB (1271.70 kg/hm2) and temperate grassland desertification having the lowest (469.06 kg/hm2). IMAR grasslands exhibited an overall increasing trend in AGB over the past 23 years (6.01 kg/hm2•yr), with the increasing trend covering 83.52% of the grassland area and the decreasing trend covering 16.48%. (3) Spatially, IMAR grassland AGB showed a gradual decline from northeast to southwest and exhibited an increasing trend with increasing longitude (45.423 kg/hm2 per degree) and latitude (71.9 kg/hm2 per degree). (4) Meteorological factors were the most significant factors affecting IMAR grassland AGB, with precipitation (five-year average q value of 0.61) being the most prominent. In the western part of IMAR, where precipitation is consistently limited throughout the year, the primary drivers of influence were human activities, with particular emphasis on the number of livestock (with a five-year average q value of 0.44). It is evident that reducing human activity disturbance and pressure in fragile grassland areas or implementing near-natural restoration measures will be beneficial for the sustainable development of grassland ecosystems. The results of this research hold substantial reference importance for the protection and restoration of grasslands, the supervision and administration of grassland resources, as well as the development of policies related to grassland management. [Display omitted] • The aboveground biomass (AGB) of grasslands in IMAR increased over the past 23 years. • IMAR grassland AGB shows an upward trend with increasing longitude and latitude. • Precipitation is the main factor affecting grassland AGB in IMAR. • Human activities have a greater impact on the grassland AGB in western IMAR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A selection strategy for base-period images of spatio-temporal fusion was proposed. • The spatio-temporal inconsistency between field samples and images was reduced. • The estimation accuracy of grassland aboveground biomass was improved. The accurate estimation of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is crucial for the sustainable utilization and management of grassland resources. Spatio-temporal inconsistencies between field samples and satellite images are major source of error in the estimation of grassland AGB. To solve this problem, this study selected the Three Rivers Headwater Region as the study area and proposed a selection strategy for base-period images of spatio-temporal fusion that was suitable for use at a large spatial scale in which cloud-free images are difficult to obtain. The spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM) based on the selection strategy was used to generate a synthetic Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset with high spatial-temporal resolution by using the maximum value composite of GF-1 NDVI and MODIS NDVI to enhance the spatial-temporal quality of the images for field-scale application. Three estimation models for grassland AGB were then constructed by the random forest algorithm using synthetic NDVI, MODIS NDVI, GF-1 NDVI respectively, together with ancillary data. Following this, the estimation model with the highest accuracy was used to generate a 16-m eight-day time-series AGB in the growing season. The results showed: (1) The synthetic NDVI was correlated closely with the observed GF-1 NDVI, with an average R of 0.825 and a RMSE of 0.087. The temporal trend of the synthetic NDVI for each grassland type was highly consistent with that of the MODIS NDVI in the growing season with a correlation higher than 0.9. (2) The synthetic NDVI reduced the spatial difference between field samples and images to 16-fold, and the temporal difference was controlled to within four days under ideal conditions. (3) The synthetic NDVI improved the estimation accuracy of grassland AGB by about 15.9% and 19.7% (R2), and 13.7% and 17.5% (RMSE) relative to MODIS NDVI and GF-1 NDVI, respectively. (4) The time-series AGB revealed accurately the spatial distribution of and seasonal temporal variations in the grassland biomass. The results of this study may serve as scientific guidance for timely monitoring of grassland conditions and precise management of grassland resources in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]