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As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31–162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann–Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878–1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970–2000 and 1989–2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

The problem of historical desertification of the Mu Us desert, northern China has been paid considerable attention during the past several decades. Through the analysis of stratigraphic evidence, historical records and archaeological discoveries, this paper studied the problem using a multidisciplinary approach. The results show that two phases of serious desertification occurred during the last two millennia, one is during the mid-to-late Tang dynasty (about A.D. 800) and the other during the late Ming dynasty (about A.D. 1500–1600). Further investigation of the cause of each phase of desertification demonstrates that the former phase of desertification is closely related to abrupt climate change occurring in the mid-eighth century, but the latter, which started during the Ming dynasty and stopped at late 1980s, is not consistent with climatic causation. Therefore, we suggest that human activities contributed to the development of the latter phase of desertification.

Global warming has become a notable trend especially since an abrupt climate change in 1976. Response of the East China Sea (ECS) to the global warming trend, however, is not well understood because of sparse long-term observation. In this paper, hydrographic observation data of 1957-1996 are collected and reviewed to study climatological variability in northern ECS. Significant warming trends are found in both summer and winter. In summer, the average SST is about 0.46A degrees C higher during the period of 1977-1996 than that of 1957-1976, and the Taiwan Warm Current Water (TWCW) was strengthened. In winter, despite of the cooling effect in the coastal areas adjacent to the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuary (CRE), the average SST increase was about 0.53A degrees C during the same period. The causes of this SST warming up in summer are different from in winter. The warming trend and intensification of the TWCW in summer were primarily influenced by the strengthening of the Kuroshio transport, while the warming in winter was mainly induced by the variability of the climate system.

Lorenzo, M. N., Taboada, J. J., and Iglesias, I. 2009. Sensitivity of thermohaline circulation to decadal and multidecadal variability. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1439–1447. In this paper, stochastic freshwater inputs with different variabilities are introduced into an Earth Model of Intermediate Complexity to study their effect on the behaviour of the thermohaline circulation (THC). The variability in the stochastic signal was set to be either decadal or multidecadal (70 years), based on intensity modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The results demonstrate a weakening of the THC in both the decadal and the multidecadal cases. This weakening results in a reduction in air surface temperature, mainly in the North Atlantic. Moreover, the 500-mb stream function also weakens. This causes lower rainfall in Western Europe, except in the areas most influenced by the Gulf Stream. Sea surface temperature is reduced significantly in the area around Greenland, whereas sea surface salinity is reduced around Greenland and in the Gulf Stream, but increased in the Labrador Sea and in Hudson Strait. The latter effects are more marked in the case where the variability of the inputs is multidecadal. The main implication of these results is that the natural decadal or multidecadal variability in freshwater inputs could have noticeable effects on the fate of the THC, which may be superimposed on the effects of climate change.

Geoarchaeology is the application of geological and geomorphological techniques to archaeology and the study of the interactions of hominins with the natural environment at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Geoarchaeology in the UK over the last twenty years has flourished largely because it has gone beyond technological and scientific applications. Over the same period our ability to reconstruct the 3-dimensional stratigraphy of fluvial deposits and the matrix of fluvial sites has increased dramatically because of a number of technological advances. These have included the use of LiDAR (laser imaging) and radar to produce high-resolution digital surface models, the use of geophysics, particularly ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity, to produce sediment depth models, and the use of GIS and data visualisation techniques to manipulate and display the data. These techniques along with more systematic and detailed sedimentological recording of exposed sections have allowed the construction of more precise 3-dimensional (volumetric) models of the matrix of artefacts within fluvial deposits. Additionally a revolution in dating techniques, particularly direct sediment dating by luminescence methods, has enabled the creation of 4-dimensional models of the creation and preservation of these sites. These 4-dimensional models have the ability to provide far more information about the processes of site creation, preservation and even destruction, and also allow the integration of these processes with independent data sources concerning cultural evolution and climatic change. All improvements in the precision of dating fluvial deposits have archaeological importance in our need to translate events from a sequential or geological timeframe to human timescales. This allows geoarchaeology to make a more direct contribution to cultural history through the recognition of agency at the individual or group level. This data can then form a component of biocomplexity or agent-based modelling which is becoming increasingly used in the natural sciences, particularly ecology and geomorphology and which can be used to test scenarios including the impact on, and response of, hominins to abrupt or catastrophic environmental change. Whilst catastrophic events clearly represent the atypical they can be illuminating in revealing cognitive processes resulting in abandonment, coping, mitigation and innovation. These points are exemplified using two in-depth case studies: one from the Holocene geoarchaeological record of the River Trent in Central England and the other from the Palaeolithic record from rivers in South West Britain. In the former the interaction between climate change and human activity is illustrated at the year to century timescale whilst in the other the timescale is millennial. These case studies have deliberately been chosen to be as different as possible in temporal and spatial scale with the aim of examining the applicability of methodological and theoretical aspects of geoarchaeology. Lastly the paper considers the problem of scale in geoarchaeology and concludes it is process-dependency, which ultimately affects the questions we can ask, and that questions of human response to climate change are fundamentally a product of materiality and cognitive processes. This demands an in-depth contextual approach to such questions rather than database-driven assertions of causality.

Constructing a mathematic transfer function of pollen and climatic factors is one of the most important approaches in the quantitative reconstruction of paleoclimate elements. In the function building, the key point is the response sensitivity to the climate change for different pollen families and categories. As an example in this paper, the pollen samples from the surface and stratum in Dajiuhu basin, Shennongjia are used to estimate the sensitivity of pollen factor-temperature in the transfer function by the EOF analysis, multiple regression and stepwise regression techniques. Thereafter, the selection methods of pollen factors are discussed and compared with other results from different researchers. The results show that in the pollen samples, the quantity of woody plants is larger than others, but the woody plants have relatively lower sensitivity and slow responses to the climate evolution and abrupt climate change. While the pollens from lower grade plants (herb and fern) have a relatively high sensitivity to the temperature change and fast response to the abrupt climate changes. Therefore, the pollen of herb and fern may significantly record the extreme events in the climate change. Also in different regions, the pollen samples have different sensitivity and optimum combination in the transfer functions. Final conclusion is that the stepwise regression is one of the best methods for transfer function building since it can obtain the maximum multiple correlation coefficients and optimum combination of sensitive pollen factors.

INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records (INTIMATE) is a core project of the INQUA Palaeoclimate Commission, the primary goal of which is to synchronise records of the Last Glacial–Interglacial Transition (LGIT). Through a series of international workshops, INTIMATE has encouraged direct collaboration between scientists with interests and expertise in a wide range of palaeoenvironmental approaches. The workshops have focused on the dissemination of good practice in the dating, correlation and synthesis of diverse palaeoenvironmental records that span the LGIT. This special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews presents some of the outcomes of the 8th INTIMATE International Workshop held in Iceland in September 2005, and focuses on four themes considered vital to INTIMATE's long-term strategy. (1) An event stratigraphy approach, which uses the Greenland oxygen isotope record as a stratotype sequence, lies at the core of INTIMATE's operations. A revised event stratigraphy scheme for application to North Atlantic LGIT records is presented, which is based on the new GICC05 Greenland ice-core chronology. (2) New tree-ring data from Switzerland and the application of Bayesian-based procedures in the analysis of comprehensive radiocarbon data sets provide much potential for reducing the uncertainties in radiocarbon-based age models. (3) Three of the contributions present new evidence that helps to refine the tephrostratigraphy of the LGIT in the NE Atlantic and New Zealand regions. (4) Establishing the precise order and synchroneity of events during the LGIT is vital to understand the causes and effects of abrupt climate change. Data are presented from the Baltic region and Alaska, which vary in degree of compatibility with North Atlantic records. Two final papers consider the roles of Dansgaard–Oeschger events on thermokarst during the Middle Weichselian and of solar activity variations during the mid-Holocene; both illustrate how the INTIMATE event stratigraphy approach can apply to the study of other time intervals.

The aim of this paper is to model part of a scenario for abrupt climate change over the North Atlantic sector in a General Circulation Model of intermediate complexity. Central to this scenario is the hypothesis that a substantial strengthening of the Atlantic subtropical jet will lead to a reorganization of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation in which the Atlantic subtropical and eddy-driven jets coincide. The subtropical jet over the North Atlantic sector is increased by calculating optimal model tendency perturbations, using a recently developed technique. Strengthening of the subtropical jet is achieved by model tendency perturbations which (1) sharpen the meridional gradient in streamfunction or (2) force a strong and persistently negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in the upper troposphere. Both approaches lead to similar forcing patterns. It is found that when the subtropical jet is sufficiently strong, the eddy-driven jet is indeed drawn to the northern rim of the subtropical jet. This reduces atmospheric meridional heat transport over the North Atlantic. In the model, a positive feedback is observed; the southern sea ice-edge extends further south and snowcover over Europe is more persistent. All factors combined result in an overall cooling of the circum-North Atlantic region.

Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change and El Nino, and the potential of abrupt climate change. Several trends in weather extremes are sufficiently clear to inform risk reduction efforts. In many instances, however, the potential increases in extreme events due to climate change come on top of alarming rises in vulnerability. Hence, the additional risks due to climate change should not be analysed or treated in isolation, but instead integrated into broader efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters.

This paper addresses the possible connections between the onset of human expansioninEuropefollowingtheLastGlacialMaximum,andthetimingofabruptclimatewarmingattheonsetof theLateglacial (Bo¨lling/Allerod) Interstadial. Thereare opposing views as towhether ornot humanpopulations and activities were directly ‘forced’ by climate change, based on different comparisonsbetween archaeological and environmental data. We review the geochronological assumptions andapproaches on which data comparisons have been attempted in the past, and argue that theuncertainties presently associated with age models based on calibrated radiocarbon dates precluderobust testing of the competing models, particularly when comparing the data to non-radiocarbon-basedtimescalessuchastheGreenlandicecorerecords.Thepaperconcludeswithsomesuggestionsastothestepsthatwillbenecessaryifmorerobusttestsofthemodelsaretobedevelopedinthefuture.Copyright # 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEYWORDS: Lateglacial; radiocarbon calibration; IntCal04; Lake Suigetsu; palaeotemperature reconstruction; human adaptation; tephrochronology.

In February 2004, the Department of Defense released ‘An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security.’ Written by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall of consulting firm Global Business Network, the study outlined a possible future with climatic conditions similar to those 8200 years ago and speculated on implications related to the subsequent availability of food, water, and energy. As a result of media coverage about the report, which notably included misconceptions about the study's intents, the document may have become too politically controversial for defense planners to engage at the present time and it has apparently not been widely distributed within the administration's national security personnel. Regardless of the document's status within the Pentagon, it is of interest to many who are actively involved in discussions about the future. Broadly, as with any scenario-based undertaking, there are questions about how the vision of the future has been crafted and, subsequently, how it may best be used to inform a decision-making process. More narrowly, this particular scenario is also significant for on-going debates about the role of environmental factors in matters of national security. This paper distinguishes between natural events and human actions to consider some strengths and weaknesses of Schwartz and Randall's text. It also makes recommendations to improve future efforts to understand the relationships between climate change and national security.

SummaryThe media coverage of the severe weather patterns of 1982–3 and 1997–8 has reasserted for the study of history the possible influence of abrupt climate change at transitional periods. Modern theories on the fall of Ur have already looked beyond the Elamite invasion to the evidence of food shortage and failing water supply as preconditions of the event. The present study seeks to enlarge upon this theme, and will suggest that, following a period of storm and flood, a sustained drought brought an unprecedented loss of life to the city of Ur and across Sumer. The paper will finally suggest a modern and scientific explanation of the ud-šu-bala, or “weather change”, of the period.

Vegetation strongly affects climate by influencing the exchanges of energy and moisture between the land and atmosphere. This paper uses climate modelling studies to discuss four perspectives on the influence of vegetation on climate through biophysical properties of the land surface; (i) the extent to which present-day patterns of climate are modified by the presence of vegetation, and the importance of this for the vegetation itself; (ii) anthropogenic vegetation change as a driver (forcing) of climate change; (iii) the physiological impact of elevated CO 2 on vegetation as a forcing of climate change through the surface energy budget; and (iv) the responses of vegetation to radiatively-forced climate change and resulting feedbacks on the climate change itself. Contemporary vegetation increases continental precipitation while generally reducing temperature extremes, and this is crucial for maintaining present-day global vegetation patterns. Mid-latitude deforestation has acted to cool the climate by increasing surface albedo, while continued tropical deforestation may exert a warming and reduce precipitation. Elevated CO 2 may cause a warming through reduced transpiration by plants in addition to the greenhouse warming. Forest die-back may accelerate a projected precipitation reduction in Amazonia, while expansion of the boreal forests may provide a positive feedback on local warming.

The distribution and abundance of birds is known to depend critically upon climate variability at a range of temporal and spatial scales. In this paper we review historical changes in climate in the context of what is known about climate variability over the last millennium, with particular reference to the British Isles. The climate of Britain is now warmer than it has been in at least 340 years, with the 1990s decade 0.5 ° C warmer than the 1961‐1990 average. In addition, the frequency of cold days (mean temperature below 0 ° C), particularly during March and November, has declined and there has been a marked shift in the seasonality of precipitation, with winters becoming substantially wetter and summers becoming slightly drier. Current understanding is that the rate of future warming is likely to accelerate with more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves, milder winters, an increase in winter rainfall, an increased risk of winter river floods, and an increase in mean sea-level and associated coastal flooding. All of these aspects of climate change are likely to impact on coastal birds. A range of potential future climate scenarios for the British Isles are presented derived from recently completed global climate model experiments. For migrant bird species, changes in the British climate have also to be seen within the context of remote climate change in both the breeding and the overwintering grounds.

The ongoing debate on the global warming and climate change highlights the possibility of increased incidences of extreme weather events world-wide, as the earth’s mean temperature is expected to rise steadily in the next 100 years according to most climate model projections. The recent IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) document (IPCC, 2001) categorically states: The globally average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4C to 5.8C over the period 1990 to 2100. The projected warming is much larger than the observed changes during the twentieth century and is very likely to be without precedent during at least the last 10,000 years. The Climate Change document also summarizes various extreme weather events and their observed and projected changes based on model simulations. Among the extreme weather events summarized by IPCC are: Higher maximum temperature and more hot days over nearly all land areas; increase of heat index over land areas; more intense precipitation events and increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought. Besides these weather events, the Climate change document also makes projections of major climatic events and states: El Nino events may show small increase in amplitude but its impact in terms of droughts and floods will increase. The warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentration will cause an increase of Asian summer monsoon variability. A number of recent papers appearing in peer-reviewed literature have questioned many of the IPCC projections on future warming of the earth’s surface and associated increase in extreme weather events. It is important to briefly review these recent studies and make an assessment of present status of the global warming science. Such an assessment is essential for developing a Climate Policy consistent with the emerging view of the state of science. In this viewpoint, some of the climate model projections are briefly assessed in the light of recent studies.

Concern has been expressed that anthropogenic climate change may lead to a slowdown or even collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Because of the possibly severe consequences that such an event could have on the northern North Atlantic and northwestern Europe, integrated assessment models (IAMs) are needed to explore the associated political and socioeconomic implications. State-of-the-art climate models representing the THC are, however, often too complex to be incorporated into an integrated assessment framework. In this paper we present a low-order model of the Atlantic THC which meets the main requirements of IAMs: it (1) is physically based, (2) is computationally highly efficient, (3) allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis and (4) can be linked to globally aggregated climate models that are mostly used in IAMs. The model is an interhemispheric extension of the seminal Stommel model. Its parameters are determined by a least-squares fit to the output of a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. Results of a number of transient global warming simulations indicate that the model is able to reproduce many features of the behaviour of coupled ocean–atmosphere circulation models such as the sensitivity of the THC to the amount, regional distribution and rate of climate change.

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate–change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long–term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change – in the sense referred to here – imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.

The aim of this paper is to present a modeling framework for deriving emissions corridors that preserve the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The framework consists of a multi-gas reduced-form climate model coupled to a four-box THC model and allows for the main physical uncertainties (i.e., climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivity) to be taken into account. The emissions corridors are calculated along the conceptual and methodological lines of the tolerable windows approach (TWA). The corridor boundaries demarcate emissions limits for the 21 st century beyond which either the THC collapses or the mitigation burden becomes intolerable. Accordingly, the corridors represent the maneuvering space for climate policies committed to preserve the THC without endangering future economic growth. Results indicate a large dependence of the width of the emissions corridors on climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivity: for low values of climate and=or hydrological sensitivity the upper corridor boundary is far from being transgressed by any of the SRES emissions scenario for the 21 st century, while for high values of both quantities even low non-intervention scenarios leave the corridor.

Climate change impact assessments conventionally assess just the implications of a change in mean climate due to global warming. This paper compares such effects of such changes with those due to natural multi-decadal variability, and also explores the effects of changing the year-to-year variability in climate as well as the mean. It estimates changes in mean monthly flows and a measure of low flow (the flow exceeded 95% of the time) in six catchments in Britain, using the UKCIP98 climate change scenarios and a calibrated hydrological model. Human-induced climate change has a different seasonal effect on flows than natural multi-decadal variability (an increase in winter and decrease in summer), and by the 2050s the climate change signal is apparent in winter and, in lowland Britain, in summer. Superimposing natural multi-decadal variability onto the human-induced climate change increases substantially the range in possible future streamflows (in some instances counteracting the climate change signal), with important implications for the development of adaptation strategies. Increased year-to-year variability in climate leads to slight increases in mean monthly flows (relative to changes due just to changes in mean climate), and slightly greater decreases in low flows. The greatest effect on low flows occurs in upland catchments.

A detailed study of the Goniopora reef profile at Dengloujiao, Xuwen County, Leizhou Peninsula, the northern coast of the South China Sea suggests that a series of high-frequency, large-amplitude and abrupt cold events occurred during the Holocene Hypsithermal, an unusual phenomenon termed "Leizhou Events" in this paper. This period (corresponding to C-14 age of 6.2 -6.7 kaBP or calendar age of 6.7-7.2 kaBP), when the climatic conditions were ideal for coral. reefs to develop, can be divided into at least nine stages. Each stage (or called a "climate optimum"), lasting about 20 to 50 a, was terminated by an abrupt cold nap and (or) a sea-level lowering event in winter, leading to widespread emergence and death of the Goniopora corals, and growth discontinuities on the coral surface. Such a cyclic process resulted in the creation of a > 4m thick Goniopora reef flat. During this period, the crust subsided periodically but the sea level was rising. The reef profile provides valuable archives for the study of decadal-scale mid-Holocene climatic oscillations in the tropical area of South China. Our results provide new evidence for high-frequency climate instability in the Holocene Hypsithermal, and challenge the traditional understanding of Holocene climate.

The record of deposition of tephras in Europe and the North Atlantic during the period 18.5-8.0 (14)C ka BP (the Last Termination and Early Holocene) is reviewed. Altogether, 34 tephras originating from four main volcanic provinces (Iceland, the Eifel district, the Massif Central and Italy) have been identified so far in geological sequences spanning this time-interval. Most of the records have been based, until very recently, on observations of visible layers of tephras. Here, we report on the potential for extending the areas over which some of the tephras can be traced by the search for layers of micro-tephra, which are not visible to the naked eye, and on the use of geochemical methods to correlate them with known tephra horizons. This approach has greatly extended the area in Northern Europe over which the Vedde Ash can be traced. The same potential exists in southern Europe, which is demonstrated for the first time by the discovery of a distinct layer of micro-tephra of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff in a site in the Northern Apennines in Italy, far to the north of the occurrences of visible records of this tephra. The paper closes by considering the potential for developing a robust European tephrostratigraphy to underpin the chronology of records of the Last Termination and Early Holocene, thereby promoting a better understanding of the nature, timing and environmental effects of the abrupt climatic changes that characterized this period.

The El Niiio phenomenon involves a large-scale warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. Recent developments in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have raised concerns about climate change. In this review paper, these recent developments are critically assessed and forecasts of possible future changes are reviewed. Since the late-1970s, El Niiio episodes have been unusually recurrent, while the frequency of strong La Nina events has been low. Prolonged/recurrent warm event conditions of the first half of the 1990s were the result of the persistence of an anomalously warm pool near the date line, which, in turn, may be part of an abrupt warming trend in tropical sea-surface temperatures that occurred in the late-1970s. The abrupt warming of tropical sea-surface temperatures has been attributed to the enhanced-greenhouse effect, but may be indicative of inter-decadal variability: earlier changes in the frequency of ENSO events and earlier persistent El Nino and La Nina sequences have occurred. Most forecasts of ENSO variability in a doubled-CO 2 climate suggest that the recent changes in the tropical Pacific are anomalous. Of potential concern, however, is a possible reduction in the predictability of ENSO events given a warmer background climate. El Nino events usually are associated with below-normal rainfall over much of southern Africa. Mechanisms for this influence on southern African climate are discussed, and the implications of possible changes in ENSO variability on the climate of the region are assessed. Recent observed changes in southern African climate and their possible relationships with trends in ENSO variability are investigated. The El Nino influence on rainfall over southern Africa occurs largely because of a weakening of tropical convection over the subcontinent. A warming of the Indian Ocean during El Niiio events appears to be important in providing a teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The abrupt warming of the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans in the late-1970s is probably partly responsible for increasing air temperatures over southern Africa, and may have contributed to a prolongation of predominantly dry conditions. A return to a wet phase appears to have occurred, despite the persistence of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures associated with the late-1970s warming, and a record-breaking El Nino in 1997/98.

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how calcareous sediments from Pleistocene and Holocene rockshelters and open caves of the Western Mediterranean can provide a stratigraphic record of abrupt climate change. The method proposed here is based on microstratigraphic examination of sedimentary sequences using microscopic techniques. The most important processes for characterizing the sensitivity of each cave to climate variables are: (1) the modes and rate of carbonate sediment production, (2) the nature and intensity of the pedogenic processes responsible for the synchronous alteration of carbonate materials (either those derived from the cave walls or those deposited on the ground surface), and (3) the supply of allogenic sediments, particularly by eolian activity. The cave sediment sequences presented record the marked coolings known as Dansgaard-Oeschger stadials and Heinrich events that occurred during the Pleistocene and the Holocene, as demonstrated by the high resolution records from ice and deep sea cores. At Abric Romani in northeastern Spain, a series of sharp climatic deteriorations of increasing severity is shown to have occurred synchronously with the transition from the Middle to the Upper Paleolithic, with a period of seasonal frost and strong winds at ca. 37,000 yr B.P., tentatively correlated with Heinrich event 4. At Pigeon Cave, Taforalt (northern Morocco), the transition from the Aterian to Ibero-Maurusian/Epipalaeolithic cultures is dated to around 24,000–20,000 yr B.P. and is punctuated by a series of short cold pulses with evidence for seasonal freezing, soil erosion, and minimal evapotranspiration. In El Miron cave in north-central Spain, the exceptional nature of the Younger Dryas cooling produced a marked destabilization of the cave walls and roof. At El Miron, the stratigraphic evidence for sediment removal due to the rapid percolation of snow melt under a degraded soil cover allows us to reconstruct the nature of the negative excursion at ca. 8200 yr B.P. This example also illustrates how climate-controlled pedogenic processes can create a stratigraphic signature which has often been confused with a sedimentary hiatus. We conclude that cave sediments provide a valuable record of Pleistocene and Holocene climate changes. In appropriate contexts, these sequences allow us to examine the ecological stress generated by these unique global events at a local and regional level and improve our understanding of the complex anthropological processes that occurred at the same time. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

In this paper, we report a simulation of climate at 21kaBP using AGCM+SSiB with forcing boundary conditions and orbital forcing insolation anomalies. The results show that there were significant decreases in temperature in large scale. The climate at 21kaBP was cold and dry in eastern China and cold and wet in Tibetan Plateau. This simulation catches the basic climate features reconstructed from palaeo lake data and pollen data, and predicts the climate of China at 21ka B.P. The atmospheric circulation and precipitation by model experiments reveal that summer monsoon circulation at 21kaBP in eastern Asia was weakened significantly but the Tibetan Plateau summer circulation system was strengthen. The winter monsoon at 21kaBP was little stronger than today. The simulation is able to sever: (1) It is first time to use a AGCM with physical processes and mechanism to simulate last maximum glacial climate in China and that is consistent with geological evidence basically. (2) The cause of climate significant changes between 21kaBP and present could be understood in dynamical mechanisms, such as changes of solar radiation, ice sheet, surface conditions and feedback interactions among these factors.

The climate in the 1980’s is characterized by the appearance of two strong ENSO events and by the warmest decade in global mean temperature. Whether there is a linkage between ENSO and global warming ? This paper shows the climate anomaly patterns over the global ocean in the 1980’s and their comparison with that of ENSO composite mode and that simulated by 2 × CO2, indicating the role of super ENSO in the establishment of new climate regime in thel980’s.

The characteristics of, and the mechanisms causing, multi-decadal variability are currently receiving much attention. This undertaking is particularly challenging in the sub-Antarctic region because of the paucity of data, and the complexity of the governing physical processes. In this paper we report on aspects of high-southern-latitude variability which appear in the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts twice-daily analyses for the period 1 January 1980 to 31 August 1996 and in the results of global climate model experiments. We show that the number of cyclone positions in the 50-70°S latitude band exhibits considerable interannual variability, as well as changes on longer time-scales. The seasonal distribution of cyclones is linked with the “semi-annual oscillation". We show that the variability of this phenomenon in a 1000 year run of the GFDL coupled model shows “red” characteristics fand on decadal time-scales is similar to that displayed in the available observationsi. The interaction with the ocean and sea ice is siressed as an important factor in determining the nature of climate variability in sub-Antarctic latitudes.

A climate change resulting from recent increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is supposed to occur sometime in the middle of the next century. This climate change induced by GHGs would be caused by radiative forcing through the greenhouse effect and would lead to global warming and eventually to sea-level rise. This paper presents a climate change scenario for the greater Caribbean as simulated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM). The CCC GCM projects a GHG induced temperature increase of about 2°C and more extreme rainfall conditions for the greater Caribbean. The climate records of temperature, rainfall and cloudiness for several stations on the island of Trinidad are then examined in an attempt to detect GHG climate change signals. The temperature change to date, close to 1°C, and the fluctuations in rainfall patterns, over the last five decades, seem to be indicative of early greenhouse signals. © 1997 The Royal Meteorological Society.

The paper discusses annual to decadal climate variability and change in the European Alps by utilizing the procedure of synoptic downscaling, i.e. it investigates the influence of global to continental scale synoptic structures and processes on the regional climate of the Alps. The European Alps lie to the southeast and under the right exit zone of the southwest-northeast oriented axis of the polar front jet over the North Atlantic ocean, in a transition zone between the Azores high and Icelandic low, between oceanic and continental and between Mediterranean and North Atlantic climates. Together with complex topographically induced phenomena like lee cyclogenesis, orographic precipitation, strong downslope winds and thermotopographical circulation systems, this transitional position makes climate studies in the Alps even more interesting. Only a minor correlation can be observed between global climate variability and Alpine climate. In contrast, the Alpine climate is strongly related to processes over the North Atlantic ocean and its sea ice system (e.g. it has a high correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the dynamics and position of the Icelandic low), an area with a rather low climate prediction potential.

This paper presents a summary of the evidence for glacial and climatic changes during the late Pleistocene-early Holocene transition in Iceland. The deglaciation during the Bolling-Allerod event was interrupted by a short-lived Older Dryas glacial advance. A biostratigraphical record from northern Iceland shows significant climate warming in late Allerod, when mean July temperatures were at least as warm as those of today. An abrupt cooling marked the beginning of the Younger Dryas event. It was characterised by a cold and stable polar climate and an extensive glaciation, before the postglacial warming of climate set in. The Icelandic paleoclimatic record is discussed in the light of climatic oscillations recorded from the GRIP ice-core, from the Greenland Inland Ice, and with reference to major shifts in the oceanic front systems, recorded in the Troll 8903 marine sediment core from the North Sea. The Vedde Ash gives a unique opportunity to address the chronological problems and correlate event stratigraphies of the different proxies. It is concluded that the Icelandic record of glacial and climatic changes during the late Pleistocene—early Holocene transition largely reflects the climatic development in the North Atlantic region.

The contribution of funds from DOE supported publication costs of a special issue of Deep Sea Research arising from presentations at the First U.S. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Meeting held 4-6 May, 2009 to review the US implementation plan and its coordination with other monitoring activities. The special issue includes a total of 16 papers, including publications from three DOE-supported investigators (ie Sevellec, F., and A.V. Fedorov; Hu et. al., and Wan et. al.,). The special issue addresses DOE interests in understanding and simulation/modeling of abrupt climate change.

[1] Over recent years, considerable attention has been given to the problem of detecting trends and change points (discontinuities) in climatic series. This has led to the use of a plethora of detection techniques, ranging from the very simple (e.g., linear regression and t-tests) to the relatively complex (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo methods). However, many of these techniques are quite restricted in their range of application and care is needed to avoid misinterpretation of their results. In this paper we highlight the availability of modern regression methods that allow for both smooth trends and abrupt changes, and a discontinuity test that enables discrimination between the two. Our framework can accommodate constant mean levels, linear or smooth trends, and can test for genuine change points in an objective and data-driven way. We demonstrate its capabilities using the winter (December–March) North Atlantic Oscillation, an annual mean relative humidity series and a seasonal (June to October) typhoon count series as case studies. We show that the framework is less restrictive than many alternatives in allowing the data to speak for themselves and can give different and more credible results from those of conventional methods. The research findings from such analyses can be used to appropriately inform the design of subsequent studies of temporal changes in underlying physical mechanisms, and the development of policy responses that are appropriate for smoothly varying rather than abrupt climate change (and vice versa).

New data and a review of historiographic information from Neolithic sites of the Malaga and Algarve coasts (southern Iberian Peninsula) and from the Maghreb (North Africa) reveal the existence of a Neolithic settlement at least from 7.5 cal ka BP. The agricultural and pastoralist food producing economy of that population rapidly replaced the coastal economies of the Mesolithic populations. The timing of this population and economic turnover coincided withmajor changes in the continental and marine ecosystems, including upwelling intensity, sea-level changes and increased aridity in the Sahara and along the Iberian coast. These changes likely impacted the subsistence strategies of the Mesolithic populations along the Iberian seascapes and resulted in abandonments manifested as sedimentary hiatuses in some areas during the Mesolithic-Neolithic transition. The rapid expansion and area of dispersal of the early Neolithic traits suggest the use of marine technology. Different evidences for a Maghrebian origin for the first colonists have been summarized. The recognition of an early North-African Neolithic influence in Southern Iberia and the Maghreb is vital for understanding the appearance and development of the Neolithic in Western Europe. Our review suggests links between climate change, resource allocation, and population turnover., The results presented in this paper derive from research carried out under the sponsorship of the following projects: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal) and the European Science Foundation (III Community Support Framework), PTDC/HAH/64548/2006, A.F.C. & J.F.G., funded by the European Union and the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnología; HAR 2008-1920 (Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Spain) and European Research Council2008-AdG 230561. Archeological sites management by M.C.S. & M.D.S.V. with permits from the Junta de Andalucía (Spain). This work also benefited from funding from the following projects: CGL2009-07603, CTM2009-07715, CSD2006-00041 and HAR2008-06477-C03-03/HIST, all from the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Spain; 200800050084447 (MARM), Project RNM 05212 and Research Group 0179 (Junta de Andalucía, Spain). E.S. received financial support of the FCT (grant: SFRH/BPD/26525/2006). F.J. Jiménez Espejo acknowledges the CSIC “JAE-Doc” postdoctoral program for funding.

We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850-1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10-10.5, 20-21 and 60-62 year cycles are synchronous to solar and heliospheric planetary oscillations. Finally, we show how the presence of these large natural cycles can be used to correct the IPCC projected anthropogenic warming trend for the 21st century. By combining this corrected trend with the natural cycles, we show that the temperature may not significantly increase during the next 30 years mostly because of the negative phase of the 60-year cycle. The same IPCC projected anthropogenic emissions would imply a global warming by about 0.3-1.2 K by 2100, contrary to the IPCC 1.0-3.6 K projected warming. The results of this paper reinforce previous claims that the relevant physical mechanisms that explain the detected climatic cycles are still missing in the current GCMs and that climate variations at the multidecadal scales are astronomically induced and, in first approximation, can be forecast., Web-page of the article at the journal http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682611003385

Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m−2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity), suggesting that Earth’s climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

This paper examines the timing, nature and magnitude of river response in upland, piedmont and lowland reaches of the Tyne basin, northern England, to high-frequency (20–30 year) changes in climate and flood regime since 1700 AD. Over this period fluvial activity has been characterized by alternating phases of river-bed incision and stability coinciding with non-random, decadal-scale fluctuations in flood frequency and hydroclimate that appear to be linked to changes in large-scale upper atmospheric circulation patterns. Episodes of widespread channel bed incision (1760–1799, 1875–1894, 1955–1969) result from a higher frequency of large floods (> 20 year return period) and cool, wet climate under meridional circulation regimes. Phases of more moderate floods (5–20 year return period), corresponding to zonal circulation types (1820–1874, 1920–1954), are characterized by enhanced lateral reworking and sediment transfer in upper reaches of the catchment, and channel narrowing and infilling downstream. Rates of fluvial activity are reduced in intermediate periods (1800–1819, 1895–1919) with no dominant circulation regime associated with lower flood frequency and magnitude. The results of this study provide a valuable guide for forecasting probable drainage basin and channel response to future climate change.

The abrupt delivery of large amounts of freshwater to the North Atlantic in the form of water or icebergs has been thought to lead to significant climate change, including abrupt slowing of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation. In this paper we examine intermediate complexity coupled modelling evidence to estimate the rates of change, and recovery, in oceanic climate that would be expected for such events occurring during glacial times from likely sources around the North Atlantic and Arctic periphery. We show that rates of climate change are slower for events with a European or Arctic origin. Palaeoceanographic data are presented to consider, through the model results, the origin and likely strength of major ice-rafting, or Heinrich, events during the last glacial period. We suggest that Heinrich events H1–H3 are likely to have had a significant contribution from an Arctic source as well as Hudson Strait, leading to the observed climate change. In the case of H1 and H2, we hypothesise that this secondary input is from a Laurentide Arctic source, but the dominant iceberg release for H3 is hypothesised to derive from the northern Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, rather than Hudson Strait. Earlier Heinrich events are suggested to be predominantly Hudson Strait in origin, with H6 having the lowest climate impact, and hence iceberg flux, but H4 having a climate signal of geographically variable length. We hypothesise that this is linked to a combination of climate-affecting events occurring around the globe at this time, and not just of Laurentide origin.

[1] In this paper, we breakdown the temperature response of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models into components due to radiative forcing, climate feedback, and heat storage and transport to understand how well climate models reproduce the observed 20th century temperature record. Despite large differences between models' feedback strength, they generally reproduce the temperature response well but for different reasons in each model. We show that the differences in forcing and heat storage and transport give rise to a considerable part of the intermodel variability in global, Arctic, and tropical mean temperature responses over the 20th century. Projected future warming trends are much more dependent on a model's feedback strength, suggesting that constraining future climate change by weighting these models on the basis of their 20th century reproductive skill is not possible. We find that tropical 20th century warming is too large and Arctic amplification is unrealistically low in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1, Meteorological Research Institute CGCM232a, and MIROC3.2(hires) models because of unrealistic forcing distributions. The Arctic amplification in both National Center for Atmospheric Research models is unrealistically high because of high feedback contributions in the Arctic compared to the tropics. Few models reproduce the strong observed warming trend from 1918 to 1940. The simulated trend is too low, particularly in the tropics, even allowing for internal variability, suggesting there is too little positive forcing or too much negative forcing in the models at this time. Over the whole of the 20th century, the feedback strength is likely to be underestimated by the multimodel mean.

[1] In the paper “Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport” by E. Hawkins et al. (Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L10605, doi:10.1029/2011GL047208, 2011), an error was made in Figure 3. The corrected Figure 3 is shown here and the conclusions are unchanged. [2] The error was in the calculation of Fov for DePreSysFF (pink line); the corrected estimate is now more consistent with the results for the other ocean reanalyses. References

Abrupt climate change has recently become the focus of significant attention. The belief that abrupt climate changes have not been given due weight in scientific reporting and policy discussion has become more vocal since the turn of the century. New research has incorporated these possibilities in terms of tipping points and tipping elements, and argued that projections of gradual change can lull society into a false sense of security. In this paper, I draw attention to the metaphorical quality of abrupt climate change discourse. I examine the discourse occasioned by such abrupt change warnings, and I illuminate how deeply embedded temporal assumptions orient evaluations of climate change danger. I suggest that many familiar points of dispute might be indexed to different visions of time and change, and I develop the role of metaphor for better understanding climate change communication on this matter, and more generally.

This paper explores two different conceptions of how an emerging climate regime might evolve to strengthen incentives for more vigorous cooperation in mitigating global climate change. One is the paradigm that has figured most prominently in negotiations to this point: the establishment of targets and timetables for countries to limit their aggregate greenhouse gas emissions. The other approach consists of a variety of loosely coordinated smaller scale agreements, each one of which addresses a different aspect of the challenge, and is enforced in its own way. The primary conclusion is that an agreement of the first type may be more cost-effective, but that a system of agreements of the second type would likely sustain more abatement overall.

A variety of observational and modeling studies show that changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) can induce rapid global-scale climate change. In particular, a substantially weakened AMOC leads to a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in both the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. However, the simulated amplitudes of the AMOC-induced tropical climate change differ substantially among different models. In this paper, the sensitivity to cloud feedback of the climate response to a change in the AMOC is studied using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model [the GFDL Coupled Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1)]. Without cloud feedback, the simulated AMOC-induced climate change in this model is weakened substantially. Low-cloud feedback has a strong amplifying impact on the tropical ITCZ shift in this model, whereas the effects of high-cloud feedback are weaker. It is concluded that cloud feedback is an important contributor to the uncertainty in the global response to AMOC changes.

Climate change is not only a likely prospect for the end of this century, but it is already occurring. Part of the changes will include global warming and increasing temperature variability, both at global and regional scales. This increased variability was investigated in this paper from the point of view of the occurrence of cold spells in the Alps in the future climate (2071–2100), compared with the present climate (1961–1990). For this purpose, a regionalisation of the climate change effects was performed within the Alps. To avoid possible errors in the estimate of the 2m air temperature, the analysis was performed on the soil surface temperature. To get realistic values for this variable, a land surface scheme, UTOPIA, has been run on the selected domain, using the output of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) simulations as the driving force. The results show that, in general, the number of cold breaks is decreasing over the Alps, due to the temperature increment. However, there are certain zones where the behaviour is more complicated. The analysis of the model output also allowed a relationship to be found between the number of cold breaks and their duration. The significance of these results over the whole area was assessed.

There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger “mega-catastrophes,” severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, we present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophes - drastic abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptation - against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. We discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.

[1] In the paper ‘‘Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core–based index for climate models’’ by C. Gao et al. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D23111, doi:10.1029/2008JD010239, 2008) an erroneous unit of measure was given in the second sentence of paragraph [17]. The text should be ‘‘. . .by first dividing the loading by 1.5 10 g. . ..’’ We thank Youbing Peng for pointing out this typo. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 114, D09103, doi:10.1029/2009JD012133, 2009 Click Here for Full Article

The response mechanisms of the tropical Pacific Ocean temperature to increased atmospheric CO 2 are investigated in a coupled climate model. Ensemble simulations are performed under both the transient and stable CO 2 forcing. It is found that the dominant mechanism for temperature change differs in different stages of global warming. During the transient stage, the surface heat flux is a major driving factor for the tropical surface warming. During the equilibrium stage, the dominant mechanism to maintain the surface warming is the meridional advection. The heat flux forcing becomes a damping factor instead, particularly for the western tropical Pacific. Different from the surface warming, the subsurface warming results from the oceanic mixings during the entire period of global warming, whereas the advection terms generally play a cooling role, consistent with the slowdown of the shallow meridional overturning circulation. This paper emphasizes the deterministic role of the dynamic adjustment of the ocean circulation in the long-term change of ocean climate.

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate, and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between ~6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between AD1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the Peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the Peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multi-decadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multi-decadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4° ± 1oC, and sea ice extent will decrease by ~30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questions about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth's climate and oceans.

[1] More than a decade ago, ice core records from Greenland revealed that the last glacial period was characterized by abrupt climate changes that recurred on millennial time scales. Since their discovery, there has been a large effort to determine whether these climate events were a global phenomenon or were just confined to the North Atlantic region and also to reveal the mechanisms that were responsible for them. In this paper, we review the available paleoclimate observations of abrupt change during the last glacial period in order to place constraints on possible mechanisms. Three different mechanisms are then reviewed: ocean thermohaline circulation, sea ice feedbacks, and tropical processes. Each mechanism is tested for its ability to explain the key features of the observations, particularly with regard to the abruptness, millennial recurrence, and geographical extent of the observed changes. It is found that each of these mechanisms has explanatory strengths and weaknesses, and key areas in which progress could be made in improving the understanding of their long-term behavior, both from observational and modeling approaches, are suggested. Finally, it is proposed that a complete understanding of the mechanisms of abrupt change requires inclusion of processes at both low and high latitudes, as well as the potential for feedbacks between them. Some suggestions for experimental approaches to test for such feedbacks with coupled climate models are given.

In this paper, we explored the dynamical mechanism of anomalous summer climate late 1970s in China applying a new method, i.e., a dynamics index-Q based on phase-space reconstruction. The interesting results show that different climate variable have the similar dynamics property in different regions, they reflect an intrinsic dynamics interior climate system, which may be associated with the teleconnection wave trains mainly triggered by the Tibetan Plateau, and reveals some of causes making North China drought indirectly. However, the Phenomena are hardly possible found via any statistic methodology.