Search

Chen, Y.; Huang, W., and Xu, S., 2014. Frequency analysis of extreme water levels in east and southeast coasts of China with analysis on effect of sea level rise. Qiantang bore as well as the storm surge are great disasters for river bank protection at the estuary of Qiantang River. Pearl River estuary is also frequently attacked by strong typhoon storm surge. The risk of damage from storm surge is expected to increase in both estuaries, exacerbated by sea level rise (SLR) and possible climate-induced increases in typhoon intensity and frequency. Adequate estimation on extreme water level will be essential to the coastal flood mitigation for both estuary areas with the effect of climate change. In this study, the popular frequency models Weibull, Lognormal, Gumbel, P-III and GEV are compared on Ganpu station located at the estuary of Qiantang River and Denglongshan station in Guangdong province, the optimal GEV model is recommended. For the risky analysis and management concern induced by the shortage of studied data, the estimated 50 year and 100 year extreme water levels respectively at Ganpu and Denglongshan stations are recommended in this study. Both studied stations located at different estuaries are all type II GEV model as the parameter of GEV distribution are higher than 0. The difference of the parameter and the reason causes the difference in the studied stations are analyzed and discussed in this paper. Furthermore, with the estimated 2.9mm/yr SLR by sea level bulletin of China, effect of SLR in frequency analysis on Denglongshan station is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea-level rise as a result of climate change increases inundation and erosion, which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. China's coast is vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and associated coastal flooding because of physical and socio-economical factors such as its low topography, highly developed economy, and highly dense population. To identify vulnerable sections of the coast, this paper presents a national assessment of the vulnerability of the Chinese coast using 8 physical variables: sea-level rise, coastal geomorphology, elevation, slope, shoreline erosion, land use, mean tide range, and mean wave height. A coastal vulnerability index was calculated by integrating the differentially weighted rank values of the 8 variables, based on which the coastline is segmented into 4 classes. The results show that 3% of the 18,000-km-long Chinese coast is very highly vulnerable, 29% is highly vulnerable, 58% is moderately vulnerable, and 10% is in the low-vulnerable class. Findings further reveal that large amounts of land and population will be vulnerable to inundation by coastal flooding from sea level rise and storm surge. Finally, some suggestions are presented for decision makers and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal zone management and mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding coastal flooding processes in response to centennial-scale sea-level rise is essential in preparing for the challenge of present-day global warming. Mid-Holocene sea-level rise induced widespread coastal flooding along the East China coast and precipitated the collapse of the Neolithic Liangzhu Culture, the earliest known prehistoric state in East Asia. This paper presents multi-proxy analyses of sedimentology, grain size, total organic carbon (TOC), and alkaline-earth metals extracted by acetic acid (HAc) of a dated sediment core, ZK07, collected from Liangzhu City, with the aim of revealing the detailed progression of coastal flooding phases and the response of prehistoric people at the end of the associated Liangzhu Culture. A three-step succession of coastal flooding processes between ca. 4.6–4.3 cal kyr BP, brought about by relative sea-level rise, is evident in core ZK07. Initially, an increase in the local water level in response to the first phase of sea-level rise is indicated by a gradual increase in TOC at ca. 4630 cal yr BP. Subsequently, at ca. 4520 cal yr BP, a second phase of increased local water-level, consistent with further sea-level rise and salinity intrusion, is suggested by higher Sr concentrations accompanied by a sharp increase in TOC. Thirdly, at ca. 4480–4315 cal yr BP, low TOC content, high - but strongly fluctuating - Sr and Ba concentrations and coarser sediment grain size are all indicative of coastal inundation caused by both storm surges and river flooding associated with typhoon events that correspond with a concurrent phase of accelerated sea-level rise. Considering the evidence of cultural deposits preserved at Liangzhu City, it appears that the Liangzhu people were forced to respond rapidly to the inundation by abandoning the city at ca. 4480 cal yr BP. We suggest that relative sea-level rise and coastal flooding at the terminal stage of the Liangzhu Culture was the regional response to global climate warming and eustatic sea-level rise at that time. Given evidence that a contemporaneous cultural transition took place in the lower Yellow River basin, we further propose that global climate change around 4.5 cal kyr BP had a widespread impact on Neolithic cultural evolution in East China. Furthermore, the rise in local water levels and associated salinity intrusions may be considered as an early warning signal in monitoring future coastal flooding risk. • A three-step succession of coastal flooding was recognized at the end of Liangzhu Culture. • Rise in local water level and salinity intrusion could be early warning of coastal flooding. • Global climate warming and eustatic sea-level rise at ca. 4.5 ka was the major mechanism. • Contrasting Neolithic cultural evolution occurred in the lower reaches of two large rivers in East China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]