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Change triggered by natural hazards such as pluvial and coastal floods, sea-level rise as well as risks resulting from water scarcity are highly dynamic and related to the effects of ongoing climate change. Whether and how societies adapt, adjust, change, or transform because of climate change and related risks, is a currently debated topic. This question demands revisiting and comprehensively addressing existing theoretical foundations of transformations in risk management strategies and in risk governance to find effective ways to deal with climate change effects and their social consequences. Hence, the paper discusses current developments in transformation research and exemplifies this discussion with four interdisciplinary cases, which the co-authors reported in previous publications. Findings from Austria include a governance change within flood risk management related to zonation. Relocation in Indonesia and Kiribati showcases its cultural, behavioural as well as economic implications. Water scarcity in South Africa underlines the importance of behavioural change to enable the structural storage of rainwater. This paper analyses aspects of adjustment or transformation in these four examples. This may inform risk managers, decision-makers, practitioners, and planners dealing with natural hazards related to climate change how to conceptualise their (re-)actions. • Differences between the terms adaptation, adjustment, change, and transformation are analysed and working definitions suggested. • Triggers and interventions are analysed whether they express adaptation, adjustment, or transformation. • Empirical cases are re-analysed whether the changes therein exhibit elements of adaptation, adjustment, or transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sandy shorelines occupy ca. 80% of the coast of Mozambique, South Africa and Namibia. A geomorphological classification of sandy shorelines in the subcontinent identifies twelve major categories in four sub-regional coastal systems. The behaviour of each of the major shoreline types under rising sea level is outlined based on geological principles together with observations of former shorelines preserved onshore and on the continental shelf. Human adaptation strategies regarding shoreline change involve a binary choice (hold the shoreline in place or permit it to fluctuate) and these exert an equally important control on sandy shoreline response in the medium term as does sea-level rise itself. It is anticipated that densely urbanised sandy shorelines will be stabilised by coastal defences involving both capital works and ongoing maintenance that will be accompanied by deterioration and ultimate loss/replacement of the natural ecosystem. In contrast, currently undeveloped, natural shorelines will be permitted to adjust and will, as a consequence, survive and continue to deliver ecosystem services. The major challenge for climate-change adaptation lies in those lightly urbanised coastal areas where relatively small numbers of property owners may be, or perceive themselves to be, at risk of economic loss from shoreline change. In such cases the choice is between preserving those property interests (through sea defences) and preserving the sandy shoreline and its human and ecosystem services (via retreat). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2008 the South African National Disaster Management Centre commissioned a study into measures taken by local municipalities to plan for climate change. Two areas were selected for their dissimilar climatic challenges: the //Khara Hais Municipality,1 a semi-desert area in the Northern Cape Province plagued by droughts and severe weather events, and the George Municipality, an area in the Western Cape Province plagued by droughts, the rising sea level and flash floods. It was found that despite South African laws and regulations requiring local government to take action to reduce the risk of disasters, planning for climate change is still no more than sophisticated rhetoric in the two municipalities. This lack of urgency can be ascribed to local municipalities having other more pressing developmental priorities. It would, however, be short-sighted of municipalities not to plan for climate change, as major setbacks in hard-won economic and social development follow a disaster. 1The // spelling represents the click consonant in the Kxoe language that the name comes from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki///Khara_Hais_Local_Municipality [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tidal records of existing South African and Namibian tide gauges are examined and corrected. Regional sea level trends vary, with the West Coast rising by +1.87 mm y-1 (1959-2006), the southern coast by +1.48 mm y-1 (1957-2006) and the East Coast by +2.74 mm y-1 (1967-2006). The effects of barometric pressure and vertical crustal movement changes on these trends are examined. The derived relationship between sea levels and barometric pressure changes varied between 5.71 and 7.67 mm hPa-1, significantly less than the theoretical inverse barometric correction. Barometric pressure has been dropping along the west coast at 1.63 hPa per decade (1987-2006), has remained fairly static along the southern coast and is rising at 0.30 hPa per decade (1970-2007) along the east coast of southern Africa. The West Coast barometrically corrected sea level trends show that most of the change can be attributed to falling barometric pressure, whereas along the East Coast, the barometric pressure increase is suppressing sea level by 0.2 mm y-1. Vertical crust movements vary, with the largest recorded movements of +1.11± 0.25 mm y-1 found along the East Coast. Movement rate reduces southwards. Eustatic sea level trends vary from +3.55 mm y-1 along the East Coast and +1.57 mm y-1 along the southern coast to +0.42 mm y-1 along the West Coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tide record between 1970 and 2003 for Durban, South Africa, is analysed to determine the extent of recent linear and nonlinear sea-level trends in the light of predicted global sea-level rise. Given the stability of the adjacent land mass, Durban is ideally suited to test global sea-level change. The linear trends of monthly mean sea level revealed a sea-level rise of 2.7 ± 0.05 mm/yr and the yearly mean sea-level trend revealed a rise of 2.4 ± 0.29 mm/yr. Nonlinear trends varied between -1 mm and +8 mm/yr. These findings are similar to recently published results of global sea-level rise calculations over the last ten years derived from worldwide tide gauge and TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter measurements, which range between 2.4 and 3.2 mm/yr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reports that there is an uncanny correspondence between cumulative deviations from the mean annual river flow for most river systems in South Africa and cumulative deviations from the mean annual sunspot numbers. Statistical properties of climatological data; Possible explanation for the Hurst phenomenon; Possibility of cyclicity in hydrological data; Failure of statistical analysis to detect serial.