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Virus load and virus phenotype have both been indicated as major determinants of disease progression in HIV-1 infection. In this study HIV-1 RNA copy numbers in serum, virus phenotype, and CD4+ cell counts were analyzed longitudinally in a group of 20 seroconverters progressing to AIDS within 5.5 years. In this group 12 individuals developed AIDS without syncytium-inducing (SI) viruses ever being isolated, while 8 individuals showed a non-SI (NSI) to SI phenotypic switch prior to AIDS development. HIV-1 RNA copy numbers in sera of all progressors were stable and high from seroconversion until development of AIDS. Twenty-one seroconverters remaining asymptomatic for more than 5.5 years were selected as nonprogressing controls, and both progressors and nonprogressors were evaluated at seroconversion and early in infection (3 years post seroconversion). Comparative analysis revealed that at the point of seroconversion HIV-1 RNA copy numbers in sera from NSI progressors, SI progressors, and nonprogressors were not significantly different, nor were their CD4+ cell counts. At seroconversion all individuals harbored viruses with an NSI phenotype. In contrast to the progressors, HIV-1 RNA copy numbers in sera of nonprogressors had declined significantly during the early period of infection. At the second time point RNA copy numbers in the sera of NSI progressors and nonprogressors differed significantly (P = 0.0005), while RNA copy numbers in the sera of SI progressors and nonprogressors did not. However, at this time point the CD4+ cell counts of SI progressors were significantly lower than those from nonprogressors (P = 0.002), while the CD4+ cell counts of NSI progressors and nonprogressors did not differ significantly. These results show that early in HIV-1 infection progressors and nonprogressors are distinguishable. NSI progressors can be distinguished from nonprogressors on the basis of serum HIV-1 RNA load and S1 progressors on the basis of CD4+ cell decline. In addition, a significant decrease in the number of HIV-1 RNA copies in the early phase of infection seems to postpone the development of AIDS.

Quantification of HIV-1 viral RNA based on co-amplification of an internal standard Q-RNA dilution series requires a number of NASBA nucleic acid amplification reactions. For each internal standard Q-RNA concentration a separate NASBA amplification has to be performed. The development of an electrochemiluminescent (ECL) detection system with a dynamic signal detection range over 5 orders of magnitude enabled simplification of the Q-NASBA protocol. Three distinguishable Q-RNAs (QA, QB and QC) are mixed with the wild-type sample at different amounts (i.e. 10(4) QA, 10(3) QB and 10(2) QC molecules) and co-amplified with the wild-type RNA in one tube. Using ECL-labelled oligonucleotides the wild-type, QA, QB and QC amplificates are separately detected with a semi-automated ECL detection instrument and the ratio of the signals determined. The amount of initial wild-type RNA can be calculated from the ratio of wild-type signal to QA, QB and QC signals. This one-tube Q-NASBA protocol was compared to the earlier described protocol with six amplifications per quantification using model systems and HIV-1 RNA isolated from plasma of HIV-1-infected individuals. In all cases the quantification results of HIV-1 RNA were comparable between the two methods tested. Due to the use of only one amplification per quantification in the one-tube Q-NASBA protocol the QA, QB and QC internal standard RNA molecules can be added to the sample before nucleic acid isolation. The ratio of QA:QB:QC:WT RNAs, from which the initial input of WT-RNA is calculated, will remain constant independent of any loss that might occur during the nucleic acid isolation.