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Background: Some patients with acromegaly do not reach the remission standard in the short term after surgery but achieve remission without additional postoperative treatment during long-term follow-up; this phenomenon is defined as postoperative delayed remission (DR). DR may complicate the interpretation of surgical outcomes in patients with acromegaly and interfere with decision-making regarding postoperative adjuvant therapy. Objective: We aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models for predicting DR in acromegaly patients who have not achieved remission within 6 months of surgery. Methods: We enrolled 306 acromegaly patients and randomly divided them into training and test datasets. We used the recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm to select features and applied six ML algorithms to construct DR prediction models. The performance of these ML models was validated using receiver operating characteristics analysis. We used permutation importance, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and local interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) algorithms to determine the importance of the selected features and interpret the ML models. Results: Fifty-five (17.97%) acromegaly patients met the criteria for DR, and five features (post-1w rGH, post-1w nGH, post-6m rGH, post-6m IGF-1, and post-6m nGH) were significantly associated with DR in both the training and the test datasets. After the RFE feature selection, the XGboost model, which comprised the 15 important features, had the greatest discriminatory ability (area under the curve = 0.8349, sensitivity = 0.8889, Youden's index = 0.6842). The XGboost model showed good discrimination ability and provided significantly better estimates of DR of patients with acromegaly compared with using only the Knosp grade. The results obtained from permutation importance, SHAP, and LIME algorithms showed that post-6m IGF-1 is the most important feature in XGboost algorithm prediction and showed the reliability and the clinical practicability of the XGboost model in DR prediction. Conclusions: ML-based models can serve as an effective non-invasive approach to predicting DR and could aid in determining individual treatment and follow-up strategies for acromegaly patients who have not achieved remission within 6 months of surgery., (Copyright © 2020 Dai, Fan, Li, Bao, Li, Su, Yao, Deng, Xing, Feng, Feng and Wang.)

Purpose: Preoperative prediction of transsphenoidal surgical (TSS) response is important for determining individual treatment strategies for acromegaly. There is currently no accurate predictive model for TSS response for acromegaly. The current study sought to develop and validate machine learning (ML)-based models for preoperative prediction of TSS response for acromegaly., Methods: Six hundred sixty-eight patients with acromegaly were enrolled and divided into training (n = 534) and text datasets (n = 134) in this retrospective, data mining and ML study. The forward search algorithm was used to select features, and six ML algorithms were applied to construct TSS response prediction models. The performance of these ML models was validated using receiver operating characteristics analysis. Model calibration, discrimination ability, and clinical usefulness were also assessed., Results: Three hundred forty-nine (52.2%) patients achieved postoperative remission criteria and exhibited good TSS response. A univariate analysis was conducted and eight features, including age, hypertension, ophthalmic disorders, GH, IGF-1, nadir GH, maximal tumor diameter, and Knosp grade, were significantly associated with the TSS response in patients with acromegaly. After feature selection, the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), which was constructed with the eight significant features showed the best favorable discriminatory ability both the training (AUC = 0.8555) and validation (AUC = 0.8178) cohorts. The GBDT model showed good discrimination ability and calibration, with the highest levels of accuracy and specificity, and provided better estimates of TTS responses of patients with acromegaly compared with using only the Knosp grade. Decision curve analysis confirmed that the model was clinically useful., Conclusions: ML-based models could aid neurosurgeons in the preoperative prediction of TTS response for patients with acromegaly, and could contribute to determining individual treatment strategies.

Background: Prediction of radiotherapeutic response before radiotherapy could help determine individual treatment strategies for patients with acromegaly. Objective: To develop and validate a machine-learning-based multiparametric MRI radiomics model to non-invasively predict radiotherapeutic response in patients with acromegaly. Methods: This retrospective study included 57 acromegaly patients who underwent postoperative radiotherapy between January 2008 and January 2016. Manual lesion segmentation and radiomics analysis were performed on each pituitary adenoma, and 1561 radiomics features were extracted from each sequence. A radiomics signature was built with a support vector machine using leave-one-out cross-validation for feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to select appropriate clinicopathological features to construct a clinical model, which was then combined with the radiomics signature to construct a radiomics model. The performance of this radiomic model was assessed using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and its calibration, discriminating ability, clinical usefulness. Results: At 3-years after radiotherapy, 25 patients had achieved remission and 32 patients had not. The clinical model incorporating seven clinical features had an area under the ROC (AUC) of 0.86 for predicting radiotherapeutic response, and performed better than any single clinical feature. The radiomics signature constructed with six radiomics features had a significantly higher AUC of 0.92. The radiomics model showed good discrimination abilities and calibration, with an AUC of 0.96. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the radiomics model. Conclusion: Using pre-radiotherapy clinical and MRI data, we developed a radiomics model with favorable performance for individualized non-invasive prediction of radiotherapeutic response, which may help in identifying acromegaly patients who are likely to benefit from radiotherapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prediction of tumor consistency before surgery is of vital importance to determine individualized therapeutic schemes for patients with acromegaly. The present study was performed to noninvasively predict tumor consistency based on magnetic resonance imaging and radiomics analysis. Methods: In total, 158 patients with acromegaly were randomized into the primary cohort (n = 100) and validation cohort (n = 58). The consistency of the tumor was classified as soft or firm according to the neurosurgeon's evaluation. The critical radiomics features were determined using the elastic net feature selection algorithm, and the radiomics signature was constructed. The most valuable clinical characteristics were then selected based on the multivariable logistic regression analysis. Next, a radiomics model was developed using the radiomics signature and clinical characteristics, and 30 patients with acromegaly were recruited for multicenter validation of the radiomics model. The model's performance was evaluated based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC), accuracy, and other associated classification measures. Its calibration, discriminating capacity, and clinical usefulness were also evaluated. Results: The radiomics signature established according to four radiomics features screened in the primary cohort exhibited excellent discriminatory capacity in the validation cohort. The radiomics model, which incorporated both the radiomics signature and Knosp grade, displayed favorable discriminatory capacity and calibration, and the AUC was 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.81–0.85) and 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.78–0.83) in the primary and validation cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, compared with the clinical characteristics, the as-constructed radiomics model is more effective in prediction of the tumor consistency in patients with acromegaly. Moreover, the multicenter validation and decision curve analysis suggested that the radiomics model was clinically useful. Conclusions: This radiomics model can assist neurosurgeons in predicting tumor consistency in patients with acromegaly before surgery and facilitates the determination of individualized therapeutic schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]