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Predicting evolutionary change poses numerous challenges. Here we take advantage of the model bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens in which the genotype-to-phenotype map determining evolution of the adaptive 'wrinkly spreader' (WS) type is known. We present mathematical descriptions of three necessary regulatory pathways and use these to predict both the rate at which each mutational route is used and the expected mutational targets. To test predictions, mutation rates and targets were determined for each pathway. Unanticipated mutational hotspots caused experimental observations to depart from predictions but additional data led to refined models. A mismatch was observed between the spectra of WS-causing mutations obtained with and without selection due to low fitness of previously undetected WS-causing mutations. Our findings contribute toward the development of mechanistic models for forecasting evolution, highlight current limitations, and draw attention to challenges in predicting locus-specific mutational biases and fitness effects., Competing Interests: PL, EL, JH No competing interests declared, PR Reviewing editor, eLife, (© 2019, Lind et al.)

Adaptive radiation of a lineage into a range of organisms with different niches underpins the evolution of life's diversity. Although the role of the environment in shaping adaptive radiation is well established, theory predicts that the evolvability and niche of the founding ancestor are also of importance. Direct demonstration of a causal link requires resolving the independent effects of these additional factors. Here, we accomplish this using experimental bacterial populations and demonstrate how the dynamics of adaptive radiation are constrained by the niche of the founder. We manipulated the propensity of the founder to undergo adaptive radiation and resolved the underlying causal changes in both its evolvability and niche. Evolvability did not change, but the propensity for adaptive radiation was altered by changes in the position and breadth of the niche of the founder. These observations provide direct empirical evidence for a link between the niche of organisms and their propensity for adaptive radiation. This general mechanism may have rendered the evolutionary dynamics of extant adaptive radiations dependent on chance events that determined their founding ancestors.

Pseudomonas fluorescens is a model for the study of adaptive radiation. When propagated in a spatially structured environment, the bacterium rapidly diversifies into a range of niche specialist genotypes. Here we present a genetic dissection and phenotypic characterization of the fuzzy spreader (FS) morphotype-a type that arises repeatedly during the course of the P. fluorescens radiation and appears to colonize the bottom of static broth microcosms. The causal mutation is located within gene fuzY (pflu0478)-the fourth gene of the five-gene fuzVWXYZ operon. fuzY encodes a β-glycosyltransferase that is predicted to modify lipopolysaccharide (LPS) O antigens. The effect of the mutation is to cause cell flocculation. Analysis of 92 independent FS genotypes showed each to have arisen as the result of a loss-of-function mutation in fuzY, although different mutations have subtly different phenotypic and fitness effects. Mutations within fuzY were previously shown to suppress the phenotype of mat-forming wrinkly spreader (WS) types. This prompted a reinvestigation of FS niche preference. Time-lapse photography showed that FS colonizes the meniscus of broth microcosms, forming cellular rafts that, being too flimsy to form a mat, collapse to the vial bottom and then repeatably reform only to collapse. This led to a reassessment of the ecology of the P. fluorescens radiation. Finally, we show that ecological interactions between the three dominant emergent types (smooth, WS, and FS), combined with the interdependence of FS and WS on fuzY, can, at least in part, underpin an evolutionary arms race with bacteriophage SBW25Φ2, to which mutation in fuzY confers resistance.

Competitors are known to be important in governing the outcome of evolutionary diversification during an adaptive radiation, but the precise mechanisms by which they exert their effects remain elusive. Using the model adaptive radiation of Pseudomonas fluorescens, we show experimentally that the effect of competition on diversification of a focal lineage depends on both the strength of competition and the ability of the competitors to diversify. We provide evidence that the extent of diversification in the absence of interspecific competitors depends on the strength of resource competition. We also show that the presence of competitors can actually increase diversity by increasing interspecific resource competition. Competitors that themselves are able to diversify prevent diversification of the focal lineage by removing otherwise available ecological opportunities. These results suggest that the progress of an adaptive radiation depends ultimately on the strength of resource competition, an effect that can be exaggerated or impeded by the presence of competitors.

Stochastic phenotype switching - or bet hedging - is a pervasive feature of living systems and common in bacteria that experience fluctuating (unpredictable) environmental conditions. Under such conditions, the capacity to generate variable offspring spreads the risk of being maladapted in the present environment, against offspring likely to have some chance of survival in the future. While a rich subject for theoretical studies, little is known about the selective causes responsible for the evolutionary emergence of stochastic phenotype switching. Here we review recent work - both theoretical and experimental - that sheds light on ecological factors that favour switching types over non-switching types. Of particular relevance is an experiment that provided evidence for an adaptive origin of stochastic phenotype switching by subjecting bacterial populations to a selective regime that mimicked essential features of the host immune response. Central to the emergence of switching types was frequent imposition of 'exclusion rules' and 'population bottlenecks' - two complementary faces of frequency dependent selection. While features of the immune response, exclusion rules and bottlenecks are likely to operate in many natural environments. Together these factors define a set of selective conditions relevant to the evolution of stochastic switching, including antigenic variation and bacterial persistence.

Bet hedging-stochastic switching between phenotypic states-is a canonical example of an evolutionary adaptation that facilitates persistence in the face of fluctuating environmental conditions. Although bet hedging is found in organisms ranging from bacteria to humans, direct evidence for an adaptive origin of this behaviour is lacking. Here we report the de novo evolution of bet hedging in experimental bacterial populations. Bacteria were subjected to an environment that continually favoured new phenotypic states. Initially, our regime drove the successive evolution of novel phenotypes by mutation and selection; however, in two (of 12) replicates this trend was broken by the evolution of bet-hedging genotypes that persisted because of rapid stochastic phenotype switching. Genome re-sequencing of one of these switching types revealed nine mutations that distinguished it from the ancestor. The final mutation was both necessary and sufficient for rapid phenotype switching; nonetheless, the evolution of bet hedging was contingent upon earlier mutations that altered the relative fitness effect of the final mutation. These findings capture the adaptive evolution of bet hedging in the simplest of organisms, and suggest that risk-spreading strategies may have been among the earliest evolutionary solutions to life in fluctuating environments.

The capacity for phenotypic evolution is dependent upon complex webs of functional interactions that connect genotype and phenotype. Wrinkly spreader (WS) genotypes arise repeatedly during the course of a model Pseudomonas adaptive radiation. Previous work showed that the evolution of WS variation was explained in part by spontaneous mutations in wspF, a component of the Wsp-signaling module, but also drew attention to the existence of unknown mutational causes. Here, we identify two new mutational pathways (Aws and Mws) that allow realization of the WS phenotype: in common with the Wsp module these pathways contain a di-guanylate cyclase-encoding gene subject to negative regulation. Together, mutations in the Wsp, Aws, and Mws regulatory modules account for the spectrum of WS phenotype-generating mutations found among a collection of 26 spontaneously arising WS genotypes obtained from independent adaptive radiations. Despite a large number of potential mutational pathways, the repeated discovery of mutations in a small number of loci (parallel evolution) prompted the construction of an ancestral genotype devoid of known (Wsp, Aws, and Mws) regulatory modules to see whether the types derived from this genotype could converge upon the WS phenotype via a novel route. Such types-with equivalent fitness effects-did emerge, although they took significantly longer to do so. Together our data provide an explanation for why WS evolution follows a limited number of mutational pathways and show how genetic architecture can bias the molecular variation presented to selection.

Understanding the connections among genotype, phenotype, and fitness through evolutionary time is a central goal of evolutionary genetics. Wrinkly spreader (WS) genotypes evolve repeatedly in model Pseudomonas populations and show substantial morphological and fitness differences. Previous work identified genes contributing to the evolutionary success of WS, in particular the di-guanylate cyclase response regulator, WspR. Here we scrutinize the Wsp signal transduction pathway of which WspR is the primary output component. The pathway has the hallmarks of a chemosensory pathway and genetic analyses show that regulation and function of Wsp is analogous to the Che chemotaxis pathway from Escherichia coli. Of significance is the methyltransferase (WspC) and methylesterase (WspF) whose opposing activities form an integral feedback loop that controls the activity of the kinase (WspE). Deductions based on the regulatory model suggested that mutations within wspF were a likely cause of WS. Analyses of independent WS genotypes revealed numerous simple mutations in this single open reading frame. Remarkably, different mutations have different phenotypic and fitness effects. We suggest that the negative feedback loop inherent in Wsp regulation allows the pathway to be tuned by mutation in a rheostat-like manner.

We investigated the role of the scale of temporal variation in the evolution of generalism in populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens. Replicate populations were propagated as batch cultures for approximately 1400 generations (192 days), in either high quality media only, low quality media only, or were alternated between the two at a range of temporal scales (between 1 and 48 days). Populations evolved in alternating media showed fitness increases in both media and the rate of alternation during selection had no effect on average fitness in either media. Moreover, the fitness of these populations in high quality media was the same as for populations evolved only in high quality media and likewise for low quality media. Populations evolved only in high or low quality media did not show fitness improvements in their nonselective media. These results indicate that cost-free generalists can evolve under a wide range of temporal variation.

Understanding the mechanisms of evolution requires identification of the molecular basis of the multiple (pleiotropic) effects of specific adaptive mutations. We have characterized the pleiotropic effects on protein levels of an adaptive single-base pair substitution in the coding sequence of a signaling pathway gene in the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25. We find 52 proteomic changes, corresponding to 46 identified proteins. None of these proteins is required for the adaptive phenotype. Instead, many are found within specific metabolic pathways associated with fitness-reducing (that is, antagonistic) effects of the mutation. The affected proteins fall within a single coregulatory network. The mutation 'rewires' this network by drawing particular proteins into tighter coregulating relationships. Although these changes are specific to the mutation studied, the quantitatively altered proteins are also affected in a coordinated way in other examples of evolution to the same niche.

A central feature of all adaptive radiations is morphological divergence, but the phenotypic innovations that are responsible are rarely known. When selected in a spatially structured environment, populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens rapidly diverge. Among the divergent morphs is a mutant type termed "wrinkly spreader" (WS) that colonizes a new niche through the formation of self-supporting biofilms. Loci contributing to the primary phenotypic innovation were sought by screening a WS transposon library for niche-defective (WS(-)) mutants. Detailed analysis of one group of mutants revealed an operon of 10 genes encoding enzymes necessary to produce a cellulose-like polymer (CLP). WS genotypes overproduce CLP and overproduction of the polymer is necessary for the distinctive morphology of WS colonies; it is also required for biofilm formation and to maximize fitness in spatially structured microcosms, but overproduction of CLP alone is not sufficient to cause WS. A working model predicts that modification of cell cycle control of CLP production is an important determinant of the phenotypic innovation. Analysis of >30 kb of DNA encoding traits required for expression of the WS phenotype, including a regulatory locus, has not revealed the mutational causes, indicating a complex genotype-phenotype map.

Saprophytic Pseudomonas are common root-colonizing bacteria that can improve plant health. Efficient exploitation of these bacteria in agriculture requires knowledge of traits that enhance ecological performance in the rhizosphere. Here, I describe the development and application of a promoter-trapping technology (IVET) that enables the isolation of Pseudomonas fluorescens genes that show elevated levels of expression in the rhizosphere. Using IVET, 20 P. fluorescens genes were identified that are induced during rhizosphere colonization, and their patterns of expression were analysed in laboratory media and in the rhizosphere. Fourteen genes showed significant homology to sequences in GenBank that are involved in nutrient acquisition, stress response, or secretion; six showed no homology. Seven of the rhizosphere-induced (rhi) genes have homology to known non-Pseudomonas genes. One of the rhi genes (hrcC) is a component of a type III secretion pathway, not previously known in non-parasitic bacteria. Together, these genes provide a view of the rhizosphere environment as perceived by a rhizosphere colonist, and suggest that the nature of the association between P. fluorescens and the plant root may be more complex and intimate than previously thought.