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Article 7 of the Paris Agreement recognizes that adaptation is a 'global challenge faced by all with local, regional and international dimensions.' It further establishes the 'global goal on adaptation focusing on enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development.' However, the lack of international cooperation between the global north and global south challenge the formulation and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. This paper brings in the concept of global public goods (GPGs) to the lexicon of climate adaptation and highlights that adverse impacts of climate change such as climate-induced global migration are global public bad. Hence, the measures taken to respond to such impacts, which consequently enhance the resilience of affected countries, make them more adaptive to those adverse impacts, and deliver common values of universal character, should be construed as the global public good. The paper argues that that the idea of GPGs with its universality offers a normative and practical foundation for understanding, addressing, and strengthening the international community's climate adaptation actions and cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses worldwide challenges, perhaps most in coastal areas. Governments on different scales respond with planning and policy measures, many with drastic impact. In this paper we assess the role of cultural heritage in planning for climate change on the former island Goeree‐Overflakkee in the Netherlands. We do so by exploring the theoretical discourse on the nexus of climate change and heritage discourses and relating these to an analysis of mitigation and adaptation measures on the island of Goeree‐Overflakkee in the Dutch river delta. It appears that the scale and political urgency of climate change induces involvement of many different governments, resulting in an inconsistent integration of cultural heritage in these plans and policies. These outcomes demonstrate that in order to integrate heritage in climate adaptation and mitigation planning, governments cannot rely on established planning traditions for other spatial challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation to climate change requires careful evaluation of infrastructure performance under future climatic extremes. This study demonstrates how a multidisciplinary approach integrating geotechnical engineering, hydrology, and climate science can be employed to quantify site-specific impacts of climate change on geotechnical infrastructure. Specifically, this paper quantifies the effects of changes in future streamflow on the performance of an earthen levee in Sacramento, California, considering multiple modes of failure. The streamflows for historical (1950–2000) and projected (2049–2099) scenarios with different recurrence intervals were derived from routed hydrological simulations driven by bias-corrected global climate models. The historical and future flood levels were then applied in a set of transient coupled finite-element seepage and limit equilibrium slope stability analyses to simulate the levee subjected to extreme streamflow. Variability in hydraulic and mechanical properties of soils was addressed using a Monte Carlo sampling method to evaluate and compare the probability of failure of the levee under different historical and future climate scenarios. Three individual modes (underseepage, uplift, and slope stability) along with lower and upper bounds for the combined mode of failure were examined. The results showed that incorporating future floods into levee failure analysis led to considerable reductions in the mean factor of safety and increases in the levee's probability of failure, suggesting that risk assessment based on historical records can significantly underestimate the levee's failure probability in a warming climate. Despite inherent uncertainties in future projections and substantial variability across climate models, evaluating infrastructure against projected extremes offers insights into their likely performance for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper distinguishes between bridging and bonding social capital to assess their roles for individual farmers’ adaptation strategies taken through technology adoption. Based on primary data collected in Langcang River (LCR) basin area in southwestern China, the paper finds: (1) adaptation measures have been widely taken by surveyed households, but non-infrastructure-based measures are more prevalent than infrastructure-based measures and (2) surveyed households have strong social capital while having weak bridging social capital. Their bonding social capital has significantly positive relationship with their adaptation decisions, but bridging social capital does not have such statistically significant relationship. It recommends that the governments contemplate carefully how to help the poor to get a good combination of bonding and bridging social capital when designing policies to help the rural poor to improve their long-term adaptive capacity and achieve sustainable rural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though a small fraction of the US citizenry, agricultural producers are directly responsible for the stewardship of almost half of the country's land. This group is therefore an especially important one to understand from the standpoint of how they process and respond to science as it relates to agroecological phenomena. Data from a sample (n = 111) of farmers and ranchers located in the US state of Colorado are used to expand our understanding of how food producers process scientific claims. These insights, I argue, help us think through public understandings of science more generally. Using semi-structured interviews, the paper unpacks an identified asymmetry in how respondents perceive climate science and the science associated with genetically modified food and seed. These tensions are interrogated with the help of a novel methodological design that generated data converted to shading matrices—also known as heat maps. The heat maps illuminate certain cultural values among respondents, which were reinforced by motivated reasoning. This allows for an interrogation of tensions and inconsistencies in respondents' remarks about a variety of scientific claims. The heat maps, coupled with the qualitative data, allow for an exploration into how respondents perceive certain salient socio-technical issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are gaining prominence committing to respond to the threat of climate change, e.g., by developing local climate plans or strategies. However, little is known regarding the approaches and processes of plan development and implementation, or the success and effectiveness of proposed measures. Mainstreaming is regarded as one approach associated with (implementation) success, but the extent of integration of local climate policies and plans in ongoing sectoral and/or development planning is unclear. This paper analyses 885 cities across the 28 European countries to create a first reference baseline on the degree of climate mainstreaming in local climate plans. This will help to compare the benefits of mainstreaming versus dedicated climate plans, looking at policy effectiveness and ultimately delivery of much needed climate change efforts at the city level. All core cities of the European Urban Audit sample were analyzed, and their local climate plans classified as dedicated or mainstreamed in other local policy initiatives. It was found that the degree of mainstreaming is low for mitigation (9% of reviewed cities; 12% of the identified plans) and somewhat higher for adaptation (10% of cities; 29% of plans). In particular horizontal mainstreaming is a major effort for local authorities; an effort that does not necessarily pay off in terms of success of action implementation. This study concludes that climate change issues in local municipalities are best tackled by either, developing a dedicated local climate plan in parallel to a mainstreamed plan or by subsequently developing first the dedicated and later a mainstreaming plan (joint or subsequent "dual track approach"). Cities that currently provide dedicated local climate plans (66% of cities for mitigation; 26% of cities for adaptation) may follow-up with a mainstreaming approach. This promises effective implementation of tangible climate actions as well as subsequent diffusion of climate issues into other local sector policies. The development of only broad sustainability or resilience strategies is seen as critical. • Trends in mainstreaming climate change issues were analyzed for 885 cities EU-28. • EU cities provide numerous local mitigation (#664) and/or adaptation (#321) plans. • Mainstreaming was investigated as vertical and horizontal approach. • 9% of cities have mainstreamed mitigation LCP; 12% of mitigation LCPs mainstreamed. • 10% of cities have mainstreamed adaptation LCP; 29% of adaptation LCPs mainstreamed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on climate migration is increasingly concerned with linking the natural-environmental and socio-cultural dimensions of risk response. However, the epistemological disjuncture between 'objective' and subjective accounts of the environment is an impediment. In particular, despite clear evidence of mutual relevance, work on the emotional landscape of climate change has remained separate from more systematic analyses. Aiming to resolve this, this paper uses the case of a Cambodian beggar to show how recent developments across three fields have laid the groundwork for the structural and emotional dimensions of climate change response to be engaged with under a coherent theoretical rubric. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the shaping of Bangladesh's southern coastal region, often framed as the most climate vulnerable place in the world, as a zone of climate crisis. As rising waters threaten communities inhabiting the low‐lying coastal islands scattered across the deltaic plain, many within the government and donor community have identified shrimp aquaculture as a principal adaptation strategy. Shrimp aquaculture is integral to the dynamics of what I call anticipatory ruination, a discursive and material process of social and ecological destruction in anticipation of real or perceived threats. I elaborate anticipatory ruination as a process that both responds to and produces Bangladesh's climate crisis. I use this concept to explore not only the dynamics taking place in Bangladesh's delta region, but also the ways in which climate crisis is constituted more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to adapt civil infrastructure to changing climate conditions, quantifiable and deep uncertainties must be integrated into the decision-making process. The quantifiable uncertainties, i.e. variability for which a likelihood can be defined, are typically integrated into the management process by considering the reliability or risk level of a structure. The deep uncertainties, i.e. the variability for which a likelihood cannot be defined, are beginning to be integrated in the decision making process as a few robust decision making procedures have been proposed. However, the deep uncertainty associated with the multiple feasible future climate scenarios also provokes a “wait and see” mentality for some decision makers, causing the flexibility of a strategy to be valued. This paper introduces the Gain-Loss Ratio (GLR) as a metric that systematically quantifies what may be gained by postponing adaptation while also considering what is lost with the delay. Additionally, bi-objective optimization models for optimizing bridge adaptation strategies under deep uncertainties are proposed; the advantages and disadvantages of each are highlighted as they pertain to the management of a typical riverine bridge. Two rivers are considered that have comparable climate change trends as those predicted for the Columbia and Mississippi Rivers. It is demonstrated that the desire for flexibility may be justified for certain locations, but may be detrimental in others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of largescale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a potential threat to achieving food security, particularly in the most food insecure regions. However, interpreting climate change projections to better understand the potential impacts of a changing climate on food security outcomes is challenging. This paper addresses this challenge through presenting a framework that enables rapid country-level assessment of vulnerability to food insecurity under a range of climate change and adaptation investment scenarios. The results show that vulnerability to food insecurity is projected to increase under all emissions scenarios, and the geographic distribution of vulnerability is similar to that of the present-day; parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are most severely affected. High levels of adaptation act to off-set these increases; however, only the scenario with the highest level of mitigation combined with high levels of adaptation shows improvements in vulnerability compared to the present-day. The results highlight the dual requirement for mitigation and adaptation to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and to make gains in tackling food insecurity. The approach is an update to the existing Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index methodology to enable future projections, and the framework presented allows rapid updates to the results as and when new information becomes available, such as updated country-level yield data or climate model output. This approach provides a framework for assessing policy-relevant human food security outcomes for use in long-term climate change and food security planning; the results have been made available on an interactive website for policymakers (www.metoffice.gov.uk/food-insecurity-index). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pride in Australia's extreme climate has long been a part of Australia's national identity. Today, climate continues to be enrolled in a range of nationalistic projects, including the (re)development of climate science and other responses to climate change. In this paper, we outline some of the contours of the 'Australian national climate', claims to know it, and four idealised responses to it: bounce back, dismissal, endurance, and migration. We argue that the deeply cultural framing of climate in Australia-in particular, Australians' emphasis on the climate's inherent variability and unknowability, and their own historical adaptability-is being exploited by the federal government and hampering climate change mitigation nationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mitigation and adaptation represent two solutions to the issue of global warming. While mitigation aims at reducing $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ emissions and preventing climate change, adaptation encompasses a broad scope of techniques used to reduce the impacts of climate change once they have occurred. Both have direct costs on a country's gross domestic product, but costs also arise from temperature increases due to inaction. This paper introduces a tipping point in a real options model and analyzes optimal investment choices in mitigation and their timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The negligible levels of energy-related GHG emissions attributable to the Southern African subregion translates into the sub-region contributing relatively little towards global climate change. Notwithstanding, the member states comprising the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are among the most vulnerable to the trans boundary effects of global climate change. Existing SADC climate change policy documents highlight the important role of the energy sector in climate change mitigation. Furthermore, various international, African Union and SADC legal instruments stress the crucial role of harmonised law and policy as climate change adaptive measure. It is the central hypothesis of this paper that harmonised subregional law and policy aimed at regulating SADC member states' mitigation efforts in the energy sector is a crucial climate change adaptive strategy. This hypothesis is based on the mandates for the formulation of a SADC climate change action plan and for mitigation in the energy sector. These mandates are contained in the texts of the SADC-CNGO Climate Change Agenda, 2012 and the Southern Africa Sub - Regional Framework on Climate Change, 2010 respectively. It is the main aim of this paper to investigate recent developments in the formulation of harmonised SADC law and policy on climate change in general and law and policy pertaining to mitigation in the energy sector specifically. In achieving the stated aim, themes to be investigated by means of a literature study are those of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions and global climate change and harmonised sub-regional policy on mitigation in the energy sector as adaptive measure in the SADC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptive strategies are important for reducing the vulnerability of atoll communities to climate change and sea level rise in both the short and long term. This paper seeks to contribute to the emerging discourse on migration as a form of adaptation to climate change based on empirical studies in the two atoll communities, Reef Islands and Ontong Java, which are located in the periphery of Solomon Islands. The paper will outline current migration patterns in the two island groups and discuss how some of this migration may contribute to adaptation to climate change and other stresses. It shows that migration currently improves access to financial and social capital, reduces pressure on natural resources and makes island communities less vulnerable to extreme weather events and other shocks - all factors that contribute positively to adaptive capacity. It also shows that there are major barriers to migration that reduce the efficacy of positive outcomes to both migrants and their home communities, including high transport costs and problems in gaining access to housing, employment and government services in urban destination areas. If it is accepted that voluntary migration may play a positive role in adaptation to climate change in exposed atoll communities, addressing some of the barriers to migration seems logical. This may be done by efforts to stimulate migrant income opportunities, by improving migrant living conditions and by improving the transport services to the islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change processes pose significant challenges to development in cities across West Africa. These processes shape and mediate urban vulnerability across urban areas and hinder wider development efforts across these cities. This paper reviews these emerging perspectives within the context of UN-Habitat's work in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso and Saint-Louis, Senegal. It argues that policy-makers and researchers need to engage with issues of climate change and development at an urban scale and across “ordinary cities” through exploring the range of vulnerabilities inherent in each city. Specifically, the paper illustrates the diversities and similarities of climate change processes that exist across these two medium sized, or ordinary West African cities, the intersections with existing economic profiles and potential impacts and the emerging urban governance responses to these issues. It demonstrates the need to move beyond constructions of an archetypal “West African” city, and illustrates the emerging work by UN-Habitat and local partners in developing localised knowledges about urban vulnerabilities and the multiple and divergent ways in which these issues are beginning to be addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Sorsogon City is a rapidly urbanising coastal area in the Philippines. Its location, combined with a rapidly changing and growing urban fabric, leaves it vulnerable to both incremental climate change and associated extreme weather events. In this paper, UN-HABITAT data are used to draw out the climate change vulnerabilities and policy responses in Sorsogon City. Vulnerability “hotspots” highlight the spatial intersection of socio-economic justice concerns, particularly in terms of vulnerability to increased cyclone activity. We discuss vulnerabilities of Sorsogon City and its citizens to climate change and measures undertaken through various social, environmental and technical systems and interventions to increase resilience. The paper also attempts to unpick the relationship between the neat, concise reported city and the complexities of urban life using the Sorsogon experiment to consider the limitations of such approaches to governing climate change. We group these under four headings: social simplification in the absence of data; over-governance (and under-representation); quick wins versus strategic investment; and stretching the ecological and vulnerability footprints of the city. The experience of Sorsogon City is then extended to reflect on issues of governance and planning in other Asian coastal cities. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper introduces a special issue ofLocal Environmentthat has arisen through collaboration between academic researchers and the Urban Planning and Design Branch of UN-Habitat, focused on how we can understand and respond to the challenges of urban vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. The paper establishes the existing state of the art in the field, and considers critical challenges that are emerging in the research-based literature. In this context, it introduces UN-Habitat's Cities and Climate Change Initiative and reflects on the lessons learnt and challenges ahead, drawing on insights from across the papers in the special issue. In conclusion, it identifies the role of international/transnational co-operation, the relation between adaptation and mitigation, issues of multi-level governance and the ways in which change in urban socio-technical systems might be achieved as critical issues across the science/policy interface where increased dialogue and the co-production of knowledge needs to focus in order to advance this agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports conclude that for Australasia, without adaptation, further changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, sea-level rise and ocean acidity are projected to have substantial impacts on climate sensitive systems, sectors and populations. In the context of varying geographical, social, cultural and policy contexts, this paper reviews research contributions and activities concerning coastal adaptation to climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand. It reflects on the insights derived from this emerging pool of scholarship and considers what lessons have been learned to help us address the future challenges of adaptation to climate change on our coasts and estuaries. In particular, future progress will require strong understanding of natural coastal systems, clearer national direction and guidance in balance with regional flexibility, and collaborative processes to help communities understand, implement and evaluate adaptation pathways for a sustainable and resilient future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the drylands of Africa, pastoralists have been facing new challenges, including those related to environmental shocks and stresses. In northern Kenya, under conditions of reduced rainfall and more frequent droughts, one response has been for pastoralists to focus increasingly on camel herding. Camels have started to be kept at higher altitudes and by people who rarely kept camels before. The development has been understood as a climate change adaptation strategy and as a means to improve climate resilience. Since 2003, development organizations have started to further the trend by distributing camels in the region. Up to now, little has been known about the nature of, reasons for, or ramifications of the increased reliance on camels. The paper addresses these questions and concludes that camels improve resilience in this dryland region, but only under certain climate change scenarios, and only for some groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal and marine environments are among the most popular areas for outdoor recreation and tourism. Coastal areas have also been identified as the most vulnerable to climate change, for example as a result of extreme events and sea-level rise. It will be increasingly important for coastal tourism destination managers to understand their vulnerability to climatic changes and to devise appropriate adaptation. This paper presents a five-step vulnerability assessment methodology for tourism in coastal areas. The five steps include (1) system analysis, (2) identification of activity and hazard sub-systems, (3) vulnerability assessments for the different sub-systems at risk, (4) integration for the destination as a whole and scenario analysis and (5) communication. The framework is illustrated by an example of how it might be applied to Fiji. The paper concludes that a consistent methodology, like the one proposed, will facilitate vulnerability assessments in a range of coastal destinations, allow comparison to be made of vulnerabilities across different situations, provide a basis for more research into specific adaptation measures and assist destinations to develop a more sustainable tourism industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is now broadly acknowledged that climate change due to an enhanced Greenhouse Effect is underway and such change will have major implications for our societies and environments. This paper outlines a pedagogical approach devised to encourage learning and critical thinking about climate change. A constructivist approach to teaching and learning is applied to stimulate analysis of potential impacts of climate change on systems familiar to secondary school students in South Australia. The problem-based method guides students through a conceptualisation of the implications of environmental change. Students at Woodcroft College, when given the opportunity to examine the potential climate change impacts on a local coastal ecosystem, found the method to be both challenging and engaging. The exercise concluded with students discussing possible personal behavioural and broader societal responses to reduce the impacts of future climate change. The paper contends that such teaching to support students to become resilient young adults will be vital in a future world of environmental risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio-economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables — temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables — and sustainable development variables — technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less-GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper is concerned with the case whereby the distribution of a firm''s productivity shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm. Over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts, incurring adjustment costs in the process. The long-run loss in profits due to the shift in the distribution we term the equilibrium response. The transitory loss in profits, incurred while the firm is learning about the distribution shift, is termed the adjustment cost. The theory is then applied to the problem of measuring adjustment costs in the face of imperfectly observed climate change in agriculture. The empirical part of the paper involves estimating a restricted profit function for agricultural land in a five-state region of the Midwest US as a function of prices, land characteristics, actual weather realizations and expected weather. We then simulate the effect of an unobserved climate shock, where learning about the climate shock is by observing the weather and updating prior knowledge using Bayes Rule. We find adjustment costs to climate change are 1.4% of annual land rents. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this viewpoint I argue for a perspective on climate change in African cities that focuses on challenges and also opportunities for action. Delivering climate change adaptation in cities in the first instance requires addressing immediate infrastructure and service provision needs, because increasing climate change resilience in cities also requires improving the delivery of services to all citizens. However, there is a risk that climate change discourses facilitate the deployment of technocratic, expert-led forms of planning, particularly when climate change is used as an excuse to facilitate the intervention of international planning consultants who most often know little about the local context of planning. This paper advocates instead approaches to climate change action that harness opportunities on the ground to engage with the creative potential that urban citizens already have and to draw attention to the need to develop planning skills from within the city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper analyzes the main more indexed divergent elements among three of the integrated assessment models in the literature about climate change: the RICE (Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), the FUND (Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution) and the PAGE (Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect). The research shows how each one of them approaches core topics of the integrated assessment of the climate change (the adaptation, the impacts, the uncertainty, the extreme events and discontinuities) from different edges and points of view, arriving to a heterogeneity in the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is subject to growing economic and political interest. Meanwhile, its climate and water systems are in rapid transformation. In this paper, we review and extend a set of studies on climate model results, hydro-climatic change, and hydrological monitoring systems. Results indicate that general circulation model (GCM) projections of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two model generations. However, some inaccuracies remain for precipitation projections. When considering geographical priorities for monitoring or adaptation efforts, our results indicate that future projections by GCMs and recent observations diverge regarding the basins where temperature and precipitation changes currently are the most pronounced and where they will be so in the future. Regarding late twentieth-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers, data generally show excess of water relative to precipitation changes. This indicates a possible contribution to sea-level rise of river water that was previously stored in permafrost or groundwater. The river contribution to the increasing Arctic Ocean freshwater inflow is similar in magnitude to the separate contribution from glaciers, which underlines the importance of considering all possible sources of freshwater when assessing sea-level change. We further investigate monitoring systems and find a lack of harmonized water chemistry data, which limits the ability to understand the origin and transport of nutrients, carbon and sediment to the sea. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and made more accessible. Further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers. Finally, improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed, in particular for precipitation projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Agro-meteorological metrics are indicators of weather determined environmental conditions on which agricultural management decisions are made. Metrics derived from an estimated future climate provide an opportunity to characterise the impacts of climate change on a wide range of agricultural systems, land use practices and ecosystem services. Such indications are vital for determining how changes in the biophysical environment can lead to land management and policy adaptations to achieve multiple objectives of financial viability, food security, biodiversity conservation and environmental sustainability. They provide valuable links between probable management adaptation responses and capacity for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are large uncertainties associated with projected future climates, including the climate models’ spatial scale of representation and those at which agro-meteorological metrics are applied. This paper describes the estimation of agro-meteorological metrics derived from observed weather and downscaled Regional Climate Model projection data for 12 sites in Scotland. Results show that projected changes to seasonal rainfall distribution, growing season length, soil moisture deficits and accessibility will be substantially different from the present climate. Fundamentally, the metrics indicate a substantial shift in land management requirements and potential need for substantial changes in agricultural systems and land use that will have implications across a wide range of research disciplines. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Caribbean economies, lifestyles, activities, practices and operational cycles are intricately linked to climate, making them vulnerable to its variations and/or changes. As examples, climate extremes impact agriculture, fisheries, health, tourism, water availability, recreation, and energy usage, among other things. There is however limited incorporation of climate information in the long term developmental plans and policies of the region. This is in part due to a knowledge deficit about climate change, it's likely manifestation in the region and the possible impact on Caribbean societies. In this paper, a review of the growing bank of knowledge about Caribbean climate science; variability and change is undertaken. Insight is offered into the basic science of climate change, past trends and future projections for Caribbean climate, and the possible implications for the region. In the end a case is made for a greater response to the threats posed by climate change on the basis of the sufficiency of our current knowledge of Caribbean climate science. A general profile of what the response may look like is also offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores community perspectives of environmental change and the role development actors in the regional Nepali town of Nepalganj. Understanding these perceptions is crucial for planning future adaptation to climate change and ensuring that these measures are sustainable and in line with community priorities. Firstly, I contend that whilst the local community in Nepalganj may be experiencing the impacts of climate change, they are unfamiliar and disassociated with the concept. Secondly, I identify a number of risks and opportunities around the role of local government, international development organisations and local non-government organisations in future adaptation actions. Participant perceptions of these institutions in their community reinforce a number of established critiques of development around themes such as poor consultation and short project timelines. The long-term success of adaptation actions will be shaped by the ability and willingness of development actors to evolve their practices by listening to local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent work on climatic change indicates that the frequency and severity of flooding in many parts of the world could increase due to major changes in the hydroclimatic regime and a continuing rise in mean sea level. Changes in the magnitude and intensity of precipitation and the timing of runoff will increase riverine flooding, including the occurrence of midwinter ice-jam floods in northern rivers. Higher sea levels will increase the likelihood of coastal flooding and problems with urban infrastructure draining to tidal estuaries. Unless action is taken to lessen the vulnerability of human settlements, flood damages will increase. Adaptation strategies are needed that identify and direct development away from flood-prone areas, and incorporate infrastructure design criteria that take a changing climate into account. In this paper, a methodological approach to developing strategies for flood management is presented. After considering the occurrence and potential consequences of floods, and the importance and means of flood management, the impacts of climate change on flood mitigation are considered. Key elements of a generic adaptive strategy for floodplain management are then proposed, and, finally, the implementation of a flood management program is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability (CV) and climate change (CC) have been associated to global changes or to changes in the climate regime and have shown remarkable effects on the hydrological cycle. Water shortage, changes in precipitation intensity, and variability of extreme events are gaining more importance. Because of the increase in air temperature and the changes in precipitation, CC is increasing the competition for fresh water and is impacting hydrological processes and regimes, causing in some cases a larger flow of pollutants and sediments in lakes and rivers, water quality degradation, alteration of the rate of bio-geochemical processes, and reduction of dissolved oxygen concentration. The need for adapting to CC is urgent when large economic and social changes are occurring that affect usage of water resources (WR). CC is increasing the vulnerability of badly-managed water systems, creating an urgent need to build a new framework for the management of WR. In this paper, an integrated water resource management concept (IWRM) is presented, which is gaining acceptance as a CC adaptation strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests a two-tiered climate insurance strategy that would support developing country adaptation to the risks of climate variability and meet the intent of Article 4.8 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The core of this strategy is the establishment of a climate insurance programme specialized in supporting developing country insurance-related initiatives for sudden- and slow-onset weather- related disasters. This programme could take many institutional forms, including an independent facility, a facility in partnership with other institutions of the donor community, or as part of a multi-purpose disaster management facility operated outside of the climate regime. Its main purpose would be to enable the establishment of public-private safety nets for climate-related shocks by assisting the development of (sometimes novel) insurance-related instruments that are affordable to the poor and coupled with actions and incentives for pro-active preventive measures. A second tier could provide disaster relief contingent on countries making credible efforts to manage their risks. Since it would be based on precedents of donor-supported insurance systems in developing countries, a main advantage of this proposed climate insurance strategy is its demonstrated feasibility. Other advantages include its potential for linking with related donor initiatives, providing incentives for loss reduction and targeting the most vulnerable. Many details and issues are left unresolved, and it is hoped that this suggested strategy will facilitate needed discussion on practical options for supporting adaptation to climate change in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explains the evolution of research into tourism and climate change, illustrating how early work concentrated on the impact of climate change on tourism, whereas current work also explores the impact of tourism on climate change. It goes on to elaborate a research agenda on both topics. The need to open up tourism research to other fields and professional worlds - such as climatology, the International Panel on Climate Change and transport research - is stressed, as is the need to organise the research community on a global basis, with more collaborative and comparative research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since entry into force of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994, negotiations on controlling future greenhouse gas emissions have turned into one of the largest development issues of our time. In February 2005, the Kyoto Protocol entered into force and 9 months later a historical first meeting of the Kyoto Protocol (COP/MOP 1) was held in Montreal side-by-side with the 11th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 11). After several years of stalemate, the Montreal meeting has resulted somewhat unexpectedly in a constructive outcome that has opened the door for new momentum in climate talks. Along with several key technical decisions, an agreement was reached to hold separate talks to discuss the futures of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. This paper discusses the main outcomes of the conference and explores possible ways forward. It concludes that success in the UNFCCC process is imperative to address climate change in both developing and developed countries, even if the most effective actions are taken outside the immediate context of the legal process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Special Climate Change (SCC) fund was established by the Marrakesh Accords under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This fund will finance climate change activities in the areas of: adaptation, technology transfer, certain specific sectors, and activities to assist oil-exporting countries diversify their economies. These activities are to be complementary to those funded by the Global Environment Facility and by bilateral and multilateral funding. This paper describes the origins of the SCC fund and proposes a framework for the prioritisation of its activities. The fund has a complicated history that is intrinsically linked to numerous Convention issues, which explains the range of activities included in it. The framework proposed is based on certain principles: sound scientific knowledge, the ultimate objective of the Convention, “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” and the status of the climate negotiations. This appraisal suggests that the fund should prioritise adaptation, followed by mitigation and finally economic diversification. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising.Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an “IS92a world” based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude.The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding in 2100 is 16–388 million for the mid (55-cm) global-mean sea-level rise scenarios, and up to 510 million people/year for the high (96-cm) scenario. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be a significant problem if it is ignored, and hence it needs to be considered within the policy process considering climate change in terms of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (improved coastal management and planning) needs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are increasing all around the world, due to climate change. Climate adaptation strategies are therefore needed, since mitigation strategies alone are not sufficient to avoid serious impacts of climate change. However, adaptation to climate change is not straightforward, as it is highly influenced by diverse and conflicting interests as well as epistemological (or scientific) uncertainties. Therefore, a minimum requirement for its success is the active participation of stakeholders and citizens in the adaptation policy cycle. This paper presents a case study on a participatory process involving civil servants from different municipalities in Malaysia, in Southeast Asia, with a view to considering the optimal level of engagement that is required for climate adaptation planning. The exercise consisted of a Focus Group session, where participants were asked to discuss the level of stakeholder and citizen participation that should be adopted within the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy initiative. Contrary to authors' expectations, the participants tended to suggest medium to high levels of participation in the planning process. During the dialogues, a walking activity through the city, aimed at identifying hotspots of climate risks and defined as "safety walks", was one of the ideas proposed as a high-potential participatory method, spreading in the adaptation framework. Safety walks could complement climate modelling and enhance the robustness of climate risk assessments. • A focus group session on stakeholders participation in adaptation planning • Medium-high levels of participation in the planning process were suggested. • Technical expertise from local community is needed • "Safety walks" suggested as a high-potential stakeholder-involving participatory technique • Site-specific challenging issues were addressed through active discussion and best practices [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]