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Institutions are influential in mediating the impact of adaptation initiatives at the local level, yet there are disconnects between the goals of multi-scale planning initiatives and community priorities. Research to address this challenge primarily focuses on reform to formal institutions in environmental governance. Meanwhile, knowledge of the specific role informal institutions play in governance processes remains limited. This study increases understanding of the interactions between informal institutions and adaptation using a case study of the Native Village of Wainwright on Alaska's North Slope. Qualitative contextual analysis was employed to identify patterns of informal institution and adaptation associations in historic and contemporary situations in Wainwright. The Adaptation Institutional Analysis Framework developed in this paper extends Elinor Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development Framework and is used as a tool to analyse and describe these dynamics. Four primary findings resulted from this analysis (1) identification of informal institutions that have a bearing on adaptation to environmental change and adaptive capacity in Wainwright, (2) insight into how the identified institutions relate to each other and to different aspects of local adaptation, (3) identification of changes in informal institutions that have occurred over time and the potential implications of these changes for local adaptive capacity, and (4) potential opportunities to leverage knowledge of informal institution and adaptation relationships in targeted formal initiatives. The outcomes of this study contribute to an improved understanding of the function and potential of informal institutions in adaptation processes, the benefits of which extend beyond the local context of Wainwright. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports were written to help US Fish and Wildlife Service managers decide whether or not to list polar bears as a threatened species. We assessed these reports based on evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles. None of the reports referred to sources of scientific forecasting methodology. Of the nine, Amstrup et al. [Amstrup, S. C., B. G. Marcot, D. C. Douglas. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. Administrative Report, USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK.] and Hunter et al. [Hunter, C. M., H. Caswell, M. C. Runge, S. C. Amstrup, E. V. Regehr, I. Stirling. 2007. Polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea II: Demography and population growth in relation to sea ice conditions. Administrative Report, USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK.] were the most relevant to the listing decision, and we devoted our attention to them. Their forecasting procedures depended on a complex set of assumptions, including the erroneous assumption that general circulation models provide valid forecasts of summer sea ice in the regions that polar bears inhabit. Nevertheless, we audited their conditional forecasts of what would happen to the polar bear population assuming, as the authors did, that the extent of summer sea ice would decrease substantially during the coming decades. We found that Amstrup et al. properly applied 15 percent of relevant forecasting principles and Hunter et al. 10 percent. Averaging across the two papers, 46 percent of the principles were clearly contravened and 23 percent were apparently contravened. Consequently, their forecasts are unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers. We recommend that researchers apply all relevant principles properly when important public-policy decisions depend on their forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenario planning is a flexible tool used to assess a broad range of plausible, relevant, divergent, and challenging futures, for short-term responses and long-term planning. Scenario planning has gained popularity in natural resource management for addressing uncertainties associated with climate change, but the literature contains few retrospective assessments of scenario planning. In this paper, we use a case study of a climate change scenario planning process conducted by National Park Service in Alaska to evaluate this tool and its outcomes. Five planning workshops, each addressing an Inventory and Monitoring Network in Alaska, were held between 2010 and 2012. In 2015, we conducted 30 interviews with workshop participants to evaluate the outcomes of these workshops. Participants described individual outcomes, including increased knowledge of climate change, increased awareness of uncertainty, and the ability to learn from others across disciplines and backgrounds. Challenges include ensuring adequate feedback and follow-through after the initial process, making products tangible and meaningful to participants, and providing specific mechanisms for applying the process beyond the workshop. The evaluation showed that the workshops were well organized and facilitated, and that they fostered individual learning and helped participants develop adaptive capacity. Suggestions for improvement included institutionalizing the process so that it can have more impact at the organizational level, and recognizing and preparing for the challenges of co-production of knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Indigenous residents of Alaska's Bering Strait Region depend, both culturally and nutritionally, on ice seal and walrus harvests. Currently, climate change and resultant increases in marine industrial development threaten these species and the cultures that depend on them. Objective. To document: (a) local descriptions of the importance of marine mammal hunting; (b) traditional methods for determining if harvested marine mammals are safe to consume; and (c) marine mammal outcomes that would have adverse effects on community health, the perceived causes of these outcomes, strategies for preventing these outcomes and community adaptations to outcomes that cannot be mitigated. Design. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted with 82 indigenous hunters and elders from the Bering Strait region. Standard qualitative analysis was conducted on interview transcripts, which were coded for both inductive and deductive codes. Responses describing marine mammal food safety and importance are presented using inductively generated categories. Responses describing negative marine mammal outcomes are presented in a vulnerability framework, which links human health outcomes to marine conditions. Results. Project participants perceived that shipping noise and pollution, as well as marine mammal food source depletion by industrial fishing, posed the greatest threats to marine mammal hunting traditions. Proposed adaptations primarily fell into 2 categories: (a) greater tribal influence over marine policy; and (b) documentation of traditional knowledge for local use. This paper presents 1 example of documenting traditional knowledge as an adaptation strategy: traditional methods for determining if marine mammal food is safe to eat. Conclusions. Participant recommendations indicate that 1 strategy to promote rural Alaskan adaptation to climate change is to better incorporate local knowledge and values into decision-making processes. Participant interest in documenting traditional knowledge for local use also indicates that funding agencies could support climate change adaptation by awarding more grants for tribal research that advances local, rather than academic, use of traditional knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares two case studies in Alaska, one on commercial fishers of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region and the other on moose hunters of Interior Alaska, to identify how governance arrangements and management strategies enhance or limit people's ability to respond effectively to changing climatic and environmental conditions. The two groups face similar challenges regarding the impacts of a changing climate on wild fish and game, but they tell very different stories regarding how and under what conditions these impacts challenge their harvest activities. In both regions, people describe dramatic changes in weather, land, and seascape conditions, and distributions of fish and game. A key finding is that the "command-and-control" model of governance in the Alaska Interior, as implemented through state and federal management tools such as registration hunts and short open seasons, limits effective local responses to environmental conditions, while the more decentralized model of governance created by the Limited Access Privilege systems of the Bering Sea allows fishers great flexibility to respond. We discuss ways to implement aspects of a decentralized decision-making model in the Interior that would benefit hunters by increasing their adaptability and success, while also improving conservation outcomes. Our findings also demonstrate the usefulness of the diagnostic framework employed here for facilitating comparative crossregional analyses of natural resource use and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last 100 years, there have been major changes in the way Iñupiaq villages in Alaska have procured fresh water for drinking and other human uses. Since the 1960s, major funding has been provided by local, state, and federal agencies to install centralized water systems in these villages. These systems have arrived with great expectations, and yet many of them have a myriad of problems due to harsh weather conditions, low winter temperatures, and permafrost. Other obstacles to success of the water systems arise from local preference for traditional water resources. On the Seward Peninsula, some villages rely heavily on centralized water systems, while others continue to rely more heavily on traditional water sources. We demonstrate in this paper that local variables, including different environmental factors and a sense of agency in the modernization process, affect local choices about whether or not to use the centralized water systems. We conclude that local, culturally specific ideas about health and acceptable drinking water quality must be taken into account for these projects to be successful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last three decades, fishing families in the Gulf of Alaska have adapted to numerous multifaceted conditions in response to near constant flux in stocks, markets, governance regimes, and broader sociocultural and environmental changes. Based on an analysis of seven focus groups held across Gulf of Alaska fishing communities, this study explores the variety of strategies that families across the Gulf have employed to adapt to changing conditions from the 1980s to the present day. Furthermore, the study examines how those strategies have evolved over time to accommodate cumulative effects and synergisms. While families continue to employ long-standing adaptation strategies of fisheries portfolio diversification and increasing effort, they are also integrating new adaptations into their framework as changing management systems, demographics, and technologies shift how choices about adaptations are made. This study also demonstrates how adaptations have implicit intra- and inter-personal well-being tradeoffs within families that, while potentially allowing for sustained livelihoods, may undermine other values that individuals and families derive from fishing. Image 1 • This paper examines 50 years of adaptations in Gulf of Alaska fishing families. • The convergence of identities, changing conditions, and choices are explored. • Dynamics of changing fishery conditions have catalyzed an evolution of adaptations. • Traditional adaptations are increasingly constrained exacerbating inequities. • Evolving adaptations represent inter- and intra-personal well-being tradeoffs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Johnson, A.C.; Noel, J.; Gregovich, D.P.; Kruger, L.E., and Buma, B., 2019. Impacts of submerging and emerging shorelines on various biota and indigenous Alaskan harvesting patterns. Journal of Coastal Research, 35(4), 765–775. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Future alongshore benthic species shoreline lengths undergoing both sea level rise and relative sea level lowering (postglacial isostatic rebound) where SE Alaska Natives regularly conduct traditional and cultural harvests were approximated. From 30-km radii of six community centers, shorelines were examined by merging relevant portions of the NOAA ShoreZone database (utilizing alongshore bioband length segments as accounting units) with nearshore bathymetry and measures of mean global sea-level rise along with local GPS information of isostatic rebound rate. For this analysis, adjustments for the year 2108 were made by using 9868 alongshore length units (totaling 3466 km), each unit having uniform substrate and biologic type, by conducting geometric analysis of shoreline attributes. Given up to 1.8 m of sea level lowering, up to 30% decreases in estuary shoreline lengths are predicted. Trends, verified with both archeologic and land ownership records, confirm utility of simple geometric-based assessments (bathtub approach), particularly for low-energy bays with minimal stream input and bedrock/sediment–dominated shorelines and sites dominated by either isostatic rebound, sea level rise, or both. Predicted changes have implications for traditional and cultural gathering, food webs, and ocean carbon sequestration rates. For example, greater change in shoreline length segments is predicted for protected low-slope gradient bays and estuaries dominated by eelgrass (Zostera marina) and inferred butter clam (Saxidomus gigantean) habitats than for exposed, rocky, steep-gradient peninsulas with red foliose algae, including dulce (Palmaria sp.) and bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through a process of participatory mapping, this research assessed the impacts of the 1984 change in Alaska fire policy from one of exclusion to one of management on Native land use in the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge. Findings suggest that while the change in policy has had little measurable effect on community land use the continued suppression of fire on Native owned lands is having a direct impact on the current availability of wildlife resources to the point of necessitating territorial expansion among Native resource users. However, given the complexity of human nature, the impacts associated with the 1984 policy change should not be reduced to a simplistic cause-and-effect relationship. Rather this analysis demonstrates the interaction as well as the contradiction that occur between policy, culture, and ecology as these factors together have come to influence Native land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]