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Objectives: Endoscopic surveillance is recommended for patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE). However, it remains unclear if all BE patients benefit from long-term surveillance. We investigated the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in BE patients in relation to number of successive endoscopies, years of follow-up, and calendar year., Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of male veterans with newly diagnosed BE during 2004-2009 with follow-up until 30 September 2011. EAC was verified using detailed structured electronic medical records reviews. We used Poisson regression to determine incidence rates, rate ratios (RR), and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for EAC according to number of successive endoscopies, years of follow-up independent of number of follow-up endoscopies, and calendar year of BE diagnosis., Results: Among 28,561 male patients with BE, 406 developed EAC during 140,499 person-years of follow-up (median 4.9 years). EAC incidence rates increased with each additional endoscopy following a previous negative endoscopy (RR per additional endoscopy, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.25-1.64). Compared to the EAC incidence rate at the 1st follow-up EGD, the EAC incidence rate at the 5th follow-up EGD was ninefold higher (adjusted RR, 8.82; 95% CI, 4.90-15.9). EAC incidence was highest at the first year of follow-up (5.34 per 1,000 person-years); however, EAC rates starting from the second follow-up year increased during successive years of follow up. Compared to the EAC incidence rate in the 2nd year of follow-up, the EAC incidence rate was 1.5-fold higher in EGDs conducted ≥5 years after the index BE date (adjusted RR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.07-2.10). In contrast, we found no significant change in EAC incidence rates by calendar year., Conclusions: Persistence of non-neoplastic BE on multiple consecutive endoscopies was not associated with lower EAC risk. These findings argue against discontinuation of endoscopic surveillance in patients with persistent nondysplastic BE after multiple negative endoscopies.

Background: The effectiveness of surveillance endoscopy in patients with Barrett's oesophagus (BE) for reducing oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC)-related mortality in patients with BE is unclear., Methods: This is a cohort study of patients with BE diagnosed in the National Veterans Affairs hospitals during 2004-2009 excluding those with conditions that affect overall survival. We identified those diagnosed with EAC after BE diagnosis through 2011 and conducted chart reviews to identify BE surveillance programme, and indication for EAC diagnosis, verify diagnosis, stage, therapy and cause of death. We examined the association between surveillance indication for EAC diagnosis with or without surveillance programme and EAC stage and treatment receipt in logistic regression models, and with time to death or cancer-related death using a Cox proportional hazards regression model., Results: Among 29 536 patients with BE, 424 patients developed EAC during a mean follow-up of 5.0 years. A total of 209 (49.3%) patients with EAC were in BE surveillance programme and were diagnosed as a result of surveillance endoscopy. These patients were more likely to be diagnosed at an early stage (stage 0 or 1: 74.7% vs 56.2, p<0.001), survived longer (median 3.2 vs 2.3 years; p<0.001) and have lower cancer-related mortality (34.0% vs 54.0%, p<0.0001) and had a trend to receive oesophagectomy (51.2% vs 42.3%; p=0.07) than 215 patients diagnosed by non-BE surveillance endoscopy (17.2% of whom were BE surveillance failure). BE surveillance endoscopy was associated with a decreased risk of cancer-related death (HR 0.47, 0.35 to 0.64), which was largely explained by the early stage of EAC at the time of diagnosis. Similarly, the adjusted mortality for patients with cancer in a prior surveillance programme for overall death was 0.63 (0.47 to 0.84) compared with patients with cancer not in a surveillance programme., Conclusions: Surveillance endoscopy among patients with BE is associated with significantly better EAC outcomes including cancer-related mortality compared with other non-surveillance endoscopy., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Background & Aims: Statins have been reported to protect against esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE). However, there are few data from adequately powered cohort studies of subjects with BE., Methods: We conducted a nested case-control study of a cohort of BE patients identified from national Veteran Affairs (VA) outpatient files, diagnosed with BE from 2004 through 2009. New cases of EAC recorded after BE diagnosis were identified during a follow-up period that ended in 2011 and verified using electronic medical records. We selected patients with BE without EAC (controls) using incidence density sampling; 3 controls were matched to each case based on birth year and date of BE diagnosis. Our analysis included only male patients with at least 1 VA visit per year of follow up. We identified prescriptions for statins and non-statin lipid lowering medications filled after BE diagnosis and up to 90 days before EAC diagnosis for cases and controls (during the corresponding time period); we examined the association between statin use and EAC in conditional logistic regression models., Results: We compared 311 EAC cases to 856 controls. Cases were less likely to use any statins than controls (40.2% vs 54.0%; P < .01). Significantly lower proportions of cases used statins for 6-18 months (10.0% cases vs 17.1% controls) and >18 months (19.3% vs 24.0%, respectively; P < .01). Simvastatin was the most commonly prescribed statin (accounting for 86.9% of statin use); the defined daily dose of simvastatin was lower in cases than in controls (21-40 mg/day, 9.3% vs 14.5%, respectively; and >40 mg/day, 8.4% vs 12.6%, respectively; P < .01). In multivariate analysis, statin use was inversely associated with development of EAC (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-0.91). This protective association was strongest for patients with advanced-stage EAC: in a stratified analysis, comparison of 189 cases with stage 0-1 EAC to 520 controls produced an adjusted OR of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.54-1.33). Among patients with late-stage EAC (stages 2-4, n = 106) and 291 controls, the adjusted OR was 0.44 (95% CI, 0.25-0.79). We found no association between EAC and non-statin lipid-lowering medications., Conclusions: In a case-control study of US veterans, statin use among those with BE appeared to decrease the risk of EAC. This protective effect was strongest against advanced-stage EAC, and increased with statin dose., (Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Practice guidelines recommend a 1-time screening endoscopy for patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) who are at high risk for Barrett's esophagus or malignancy. However, little is known about the risk of cancer in patients with negative findings from screening endoscopies., Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from 121 Veterans Health Administration facilities nationwide to determine the incidence rate of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) separately, as well as any upper gastrointestinal cancers, in patients with an initial negative screening endoscopy (esophagogastroduodenoscopy [EGD]). We included veteran patients with GERD diagnosed between 2004 and 2009 who had a negative screening EGD within 1 year of diagnosis. We estimated the incidence rate of EA, and any upper gastrointestinal cancer, in patients with GERD who had a negative screening EGD. We examined differences in demographic, clinical, and facility factors among patients with and without cancer., Results: We identified 68,610 patients with GERD and a negative screening EGD (mean age, 55.5 y; 90% men; 67.5% white). During a mean follow-up period of 3.2 years, 10 patients developed EA and 29 patients developed any upper gastrointestinal malignancies, including EA. The incidence of subsequent EA in this group was 4.6/100,000 patient-years of follow-up evaluation, whereas the incidence of any upper gastrointestinal cancers was 13.2/100,000 patient-years of follow-up evaluation. Patients with a subsequent cancer were significantly older and had higher comorbidity scores than patients without cancer. Other clinical and facility factors did not differ significantly between these 2 groups., Conclusions: The risk of cancer is low, over a mean 3-year period, for patients with GERD who had a negative screening endoscopy. These findings justify recommendations for a 1-time screening endoscopy for patients with GERD., (Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: The increasing incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) in the United States may have leveled off in recent years. The risk of EA among patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) seems to be decreasing in several European cohorts, but these estimates are unknown in the United States. We aimed to determine the risk of developing EA in a national cohort of BE patients in the US Veterans Health Administration and to account for the use of endoscopic ablation and esophagectomy., Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study from a total of 121 facilities in the Veterans Health Administration. Veteran patients with BE diagnosed between 1 October 2003 and 30 September 2009 were included and followed until esophageal cancer diagnosis, death or 30 September 2011. All EA diagnoses were verified in detailed structured reviews of medical records., Results: We identified 29,536 patients with BE who met our eligibility criteria. Most were men (96.9%) and White (83.2%), with a mean age of 61.8 years. During 144,949 person-years of follow-up, 466 patients developed EA, yielding an incidence rate of 3.21 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.94-3.52). Excluding those who developed EA within 1 year of their index BE date lowered the incidence rate to 1.75 per 1,000 person-years. However, including additional patients who underwent endoscopic ablation or esophagectomy for HGD or EA increased the incidence rate to 4.79 (95% CI 4.44-5.16)., Conclusions: The incidence of EA in a US national cohort of mostly male veterans may be lower than previous estimates. Almost half of the EA cases were diagnosed within 1 year of their BE index date.

Background: Hispanics are the largest and fastest growing ethnic group in the United States (US)., Aims: We evaluated the incidence and survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) among this population., Methods: Data from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program were used to calculate CRC age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates in Hispanics during 1993-2007. Temporal trends in CRC incidence were examined using annual percent change (APC) and Poisson regression. The 1- and 5-year survival rates were calculated., Results: The annual age-adjusted incidence rates for CRC in Hispanics of all ages declined from 47.4 per 100,000 in 1993-1997 to 43.8 per 100,000 in 2003-2007, with an APC during 1993-2007 equal to -0.8/year. However, there was a 45 % increase in CRC incidence among Hispanic men and women aged 20-49 years that affected both the right and left colon. The proportions of CRC cases with regional (+37 %) and distant (+18 %) spread increased, now constituting 72 % of cases diagnosed at that age. The Poisson model confirmed the increasing CRC incidence in Hispanics aged 20-49 years during 1993-2007 while adjusting for sex and geographic region. The 1-year survival improved in younger Hispanics from approximately 86 % in 1993-1997 to 91 % in 2003-2007 with no significant improvement in 5-year survival. In Hispanics aged >50 years, no significant improvements in survival were observed., Conclusions: The incidence of CRC in young Hispanic men and women has increased in the US. Most are diagnosed with regional or distant disease. No significant improvement in long-term survival was observed in young Hispanics with CRC.

Background: Observational data are used increasingly to assess the effectiveness of therapies. However, selection biases are likely to have an impact on results and threaten the validity of these studies., Methods: The primary objective of the current study was to explore the effect of selection biases in observational studies of treatment effectiveness in cancer care. Patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database. The following groups of patients were included: 5245 men treated with and without androgen deprivation for locally advanced prostate cancer, 43,847 men with active treatment versus observation for low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer, and 4860 patients with lymph node-positive colon cancer who were treated with and without fluorouracil chemotherapy. Patients were compared by therapy for the outcomes of cancer-specific mortality, other-cause mortality, and overall mortality., Results: In all comparisons, the observational data produced improbable results. For example, when evaluating outcomes of men who were treated with and without androgen deprivation for locally advanced prostate cancer, men who underwent androgen deprivation had higher prostate cancer mortality (hazard ratio, 1.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-1.92) despite clinical trial evidence that this treatment improves cancer mortality. Controlling for comorbidity, extent of disease, and other characteristics by multivariate analyses or by propensity analyses had remarkably small impact on these improbable results., Conclusions: The current results suggested that the results from observational studies of treatment outcomes should be viewed with caution., ((c) 2008 American Cancer Society.)