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This review first pays tribute to the famous Croatian oceanographer, Mira Zore-Armanda, and her seminal work on the Adriatic water masses in 1963, and emphasises the importance of the densest Mediterranean water mass: North Adriatic Dense Water (NAddW). This water mass is generated through substantial wintertime surface cooling and evaporation over the wide northern Adriatic and is known to (1) influence the Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation, (2) bring oxygen and carbon to the deep Adriatic layers and, (3) more generally, have a substantial impact on the physics and biogeochemistry of the whole Adriatic. Second, the NAddW physics, from preconditioning, through generation and spreading, to accumulation in Adriatic depressions, is reviewed. Then, the temporal evolution of the NAddW properties influenced and connected to (1) basin-wide interannual and decadal variability and (2) trends towards warmer and saltier source characteristic due to ongoing climate change, is discussed. The importance of long-term observations and atmosphere-ocean modelling in event, decadal and climate studies is then presented. Finally, a review of the identified gaps and perspectives for future research is concluding this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Seven multi-decadal ocean simulations have been assessed for the Adriatic Sea. • Analysed simulations differ in resolution, forcing and coupling strategies. • Thermohaline properties and dynamic processes of the Adriatic Sea are better reproduced by coupled models. • All analysed models underrepresent dense water formation on the shelf. • Ocean model resolution and river forcing play a second-order role. Abstract A performance study of seven regional ocean configurations based on NEMO has been carried out for the Adriatic Sea over a common period (1980–2012). Assessed models differ in resolution, model physics, atmospheric forcing (forced vs. coupled models) and river discharges imposed within the Adriatic Sea. Models have been evaluated on the long-term temperature and salinity measurements in all of the Adriatic sub-basins, in particular within dense water collectors (Jabuka Pit and South Adriatic Pit) and dense water formation sites (northern and southern Adriatic). Adriatic-wide salinity content is mostly linked to the proper introduction of the overall water budget, rather than to the local river forcing. Forced models mostly overestimate temperature and salinity values. On average, coupled models better reproduce the thermohaline properties and processes, in particular the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS) reversals and its decadal variability. Wintertime heat losses are playing major role in defining the Adriatic Deep Water (ADW) transport rates in coupled models, while in forced models preconditioning in salinity is the most important factor. Further on, increase of resolution of the atmospheric forcing results in more realistic ocean behaviour, including dense water formation (DWF) in the complex coastal northern Adriatic. However, all models have large temperature biases and lower deep stratification at the dense water collector sites, indicating overall underrepresentation of the Adriatic DWF. Consequently, mixed-layer depth in the southern Adriatic is overestimated, reaching the bottom during some years. Ocean model resolution and river forcing seem to play a second-order role in defining the overall Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline properties, while inclusion of aerosol trend only slightly modified the BiOS reproduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A performance analysis of the NEMOMED8 ocean regional circulation model was undertaken for the Adriatic Sea during the period of 1961-2012, focusing on two mechanisms, dense water formation (DWF) and the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS), which drive interannual and decadal variability in the basin. The model was verified based on sea surface temperature and sea surface height satellite measurements and long-term in situ observations from several key areas. The model qualitatively reproduces basin-scale processes: thermohaline-driven cyclonic circulation and freshwater surface outflow along the western Adriatic coast, dense water dynamics, and the inflow of Ionian and Levantine waters to the Adriatic. Positive temperature and salinity biases are reported; the latter are particularly large along the eastern part of the basin, presumably because of the inappropriate introduction of eastern Adriatic rivers into the model. The highest warm temperature biases in the vertical direction were found in dense-water-collecting depressions in the Adriatic, indicating either an inappropriate quantification of DWF processes or temperature overestimation of modelled dense water. The decadal variability in the thermohaline properties is reproduced better than interannual variability, which is considerably underestimated. The DWF rates are qualitatively well reproduced by the model, being larger when preconditioned by higher basin-wide salinities. Anticyclonic circulation in the northern Ionian Sea was modelled only during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient. No other reversals of circulation that could be linked to BiOS-driven changes were modelled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper provides a comprehensive review of all aspects of Adriatic Sea level research covered by the literature. It discusses changes occurring over millennial timescales and documented by a variety of natural and man-made proxies and post-glacial rebound models; mean sea level changes occurring over centennial to annual timescales and measured by modern instruments; and daily and higher-frequency changes (with periods ranging from minutes to a day) that are contributing to sea level extremes and are relevant for present-day flooding of coastal areas. Special tribute is paid to the historic sea level studies that shaped modern sea level research in the Adriatic, followed by a discussion of existing in situ and remote sensing observing systems operating in the Adriatic area, operational forecasting systems for Adriatic storm surges, as well as warning systems for tsunamis and meteotsunamis. Projections and predictions of sea level and related hazards are also included in the review. Based on this review, open issues and research gaps in the Adriatic Sea level studies are identified, as well as the additional research efforts needed to fill the gaps. The Adriatic Sea, thus, remains a laboratory for coastal sea level studies for semi-enclosed, coastal and marginal seas in the world ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the Adriatic atmosphere–ocean trends and variability simulated by the kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate model during the 1987–2017 period. As the AdriSC model has been successfully validated over the entire basin against an extensive dataset of in situ measurements and remote sensing products, the reliability of the presented results at the regional (basin-wide) and local (sub-domains) scales is high. We found that trends and variability in the atmosphere reveal strong land-sea contrasts with (1) stronger temperature trends associated with lower, mostly seasonal, variability over the Adriatic Sea than over the land and (2) positive trends of wind speed and negative trends of relative humidity associated with high, mostly seasonal, variability over the sea and vice versa over the land. While, in the ocean, the analysis highlights several processes: (1) extensive warming by the atmosphere at the surface during summer, affecting both temperature and salinity, (2) shallowing of the advection of the saline Levantine Intermediate Water inflow into the Adriatic, (3) decrease of the Adriatic deep water outflow and therefore the Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation, (4) warming of near-bottom waters, in particular in the middle and northern Adriatic, and (5) shrinking and weakening of the Southern Adriatic Gyre, in particular at its center. We thus demonstrate that kilometer-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean modelling is an indispensable tool for proper quantification of climate change in complex coastal basins, as it captures local characteristics not properly reproduced by present state-of-the-art regional climate models with an order of magnitude coarser resolutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article aims to quantify a multiyear ocean temperature change at a shallow (5 m) coastal site in the northeastern Adriatic. Measurements were taken between May 2014 and May 2021 with an hourly resolution, allowing for an extraction of temperature variations over longer-term, seasonal, synoptic, quasi-diurnal and hourly timescales. As expected for shallow waters, the seasonal influence is prevalent, while diurnal changes are quasi-persistent throughout the year. Marine heat waves and cold spells are the strongest during spring and summer months. Non-seasonal changes mostly guide longer-term (>10 days) variability, yet rapid temperature changes reach 2 °C/h during stratified seasons. Such rapid changes may impact benthic communities and the physiology of marine species, including bivalves. This is especially important in the era of global warming, in which environmental conditions are already pushed towards their thresholds, and where high-frequency variability analyses can be useful in introducing a precautionary approach for local climate change adaptation. • Multi-year hourly coastal temperature data has been analyzed in the Adriatic. • Near-surface temperature variability across timescales has been documented. • Seasonal variability is prevalent, yet the temperature may change rapidly. • The temperature changes may strongly impact the benthic organisms, like bivalve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to document the effects of imposing different river runoff forcing and tidal forcing to the dense water formation (DWF) rates and dynamics in a semi-enclosed sea. An extreme DWF episode that occurred in the winter of 2012 in the shallow northern Adriatic Sea during a prolonged cold bora wind outbreak event has been reproduced using a one-way coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling system comprised of the atmospheric Aladin/HR mesoscale model and ocean ROMS model. Three different river runoff forcing and tides/no tides scenarios were imposed on the model. The introduction of tides and river climatology instead of real rivers did not substantially change the modelled DWF transports and volumes, whereas the simulation using the old Raicich climatology resulted in a substantial freshening of the entire Adriatic that reduced or prevented the DWF at sites in the northern and northeastern Adriatic. The necessity of using an up-to-date river runoff climatology to properly reproduce the DWF in semi-enclosed seas is emphasised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We performed a number of sensitivity experiments by applying a mapping technique, self-organizing maps (SOM) method, to the surface current data measured by high-frequency (HF) radars in the northern Adriatic and surface winds modelled by two state-of-the-art mesoscale meteorological models, the Aladin (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational) and the Weather and Research Forecasting models. Surface current data used for the SOM training were collected during a period in which radar coverage was the highest: between February and November 2008. Different pre-processing techniques, such as removal of tides and low-pass filtering, were applied to the data in order to test the sensitivity of characteristic patterns and the connectivity between different SOM solutions. Topographic error did not exceed 15 %, indicating the applicability of the SOM method to the data. The largest difference has been obtained when comparing SOM patterns originating from unprocessed and low-pass filtered data. Introduction of modelled winds in joint SOM analyses stabilized the solutions, while sensitivity to wind forcing coming from the two different meteorological models was found to be small. Such a low sensitivity is considered to be favourable for creation of an operational ocean forecasting system based on neural networks, HF radar measurements and numerical weather prediction mesoscale models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines oceanographic properties along the northern portion of the Palagruža Sill, middle Adriatic Sea, from 1998 to 2011. Temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) and orthophosphate concentrations were collected at four stations on a seasonal basis and monthly basis, spanning from coastal waters to the deepest part of the sill. Seasonal profiles and variances were computed, exhibiting no strong seasonal variability in either coastal or open Adriatic waters, except for temperature. The transect profiles were analysed using the Self-Organising Maps (SOM) method, which extracted two regimes with several transitional patterns characterized by an anomaly in one or more variables. These regimes match the Bimodal Adriatic-Ionian Oscillation (BiOS) regimes in the northern Ionian Sea, which are found to drive decadal oscillations in oceanographic parameters in the Adriatic. As the transect mainly encompasses the euphotic zone, no strong connection was found between BiOS regimes and DO, TIN and orthophosphate concentrations. This suggests that, in addition to basin-wide circulation, other physical and biogeochemical processes are more important for nutrient dynamics in the euphotic zone. The use of the SOM method in ocean coastal studies is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper documents dynamics of the middle Adriatic region, and is based on computation of relative geostrophic currents from temperature and salinity data taken along the Palagruža Sill transect between 1957 and 2010. The strongest westward current is found in the central part of the sill, corresponding to the offshore deflected Eastern Adriatic Current (EAC). The Western Adriatic Current (WAC) is, as expected, found in the southern part of the measured transect. The WAC is most significant during the summer season and exhibits stronger variability than the EAC due to the frequent growth of eddies within it. Long-term trends in both the central and southern parts of the sill oppose mean currents, indicating the weakening of the EAC and WAC and therefore of the entire Adriatic thermohaline cell. These opposing trends have not been reproduced by a climate model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper attempts to document long-term changes in deep Adriatic water patterns by applying the Self-Organising Maps (SOM) method to temperature, salinity, dissolved-oxygen content, orthophosphate and total inorganic nitrogen profiles sampled at a single deep station in the South Adriatic Pit (SAP) over a half century (1957–2009). Seasonality observed in upper layers has been removed by the least-squares fitting of the annual and semi-annual sinusoidal functions. The sensitivity of the SOM to various parameter combinations reveals the importance of temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen for mapping different water patterns, while nutrients have less influence on quality and applicability of SOM solutions to the extraction of characteristic SAP water profiles. The quality of fit obtained for different combination of the measured parameters introduced to a SOM suggests that the incomplete combinations of input parameters increase an imperfection in the applicability of SOMs to the dataset. Two modes of long-term changes in the SAP obtained by the SOM analyses are discussed with respect to the processes that drive the variability in the area, e.g., the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillation: where the first mode is characterised by rapid changes in the transition of SAP water masses, observed before 1980s (less adoptable by the SOMs), and the second mode is characterised by steady transitions (better adoptable by the SOMs), observed in the 1990s and the 2000s. The SOM method is found to have certain advantages when compared to other methods that have previously been used to distinguish the Adriatic water masses, as it does not depend on predefinition of water mass sources and allows for gaps in series. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper documents the occurrence of strong fortnightly oscillations in the Adriatic Sea frequently observed in the current measurements. For that purpose, we analyzed half-decadal sea level series and long-term currents collected within different parts and layers of the Adriatic Sea. Harmonic analysis and band-pass filter with cutoff periods at 10 and 20 days have been applied to the series. The sea level Mf tide is found to be the only significant tidal constituent over periods between the diurnal and semi-annual ones, having no significant phase variations in the Adriatic Sea. Moreover, the currents on periods between 10 and 20 days could only partially be explained by atmospheric forcing. The fact that they are in-phase with the Mf tide gives a hint on a possible mechanism responsible for the generation of these oscillations. Additionally, these currents are usually strongly amplified during a weakly stratified season, indicating a baroclinic mechanism responsible for the multiplication of the fortnightly currents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates whether concurrent or subsequent meteotsunamis could happen at both the Balearic Islands and the Adriatic Sea as a consequence of either the simultaneous presence of the favourable synoptic pattern above both areas, or propagation of the pattern from one area to another. Meteotsunami events in sea level records from Dubrovnik (chosen to be the proxy for the occurrence of meteotsunami events in the Adriatic Sea) are compared to 32 known Ciutadella (the Balearic Islands) events. The analysis shows that a meteotsunami at the Adriatic Sea is likely to happen if the favourable synoptic pattern propagates or spreads from the Balearic Islands to the Adriatic Sea, causing meteotsunamis in both places. Upper level instabilities are recognized as the most important synoptic feature for the occurrence of meteotsunamis, as these instabilities can generate the atmospheric gravity waves which provoke meteotsunamis and also help to trap the atmospheric energy at lower levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper overviews meteotsunami events documented in the Adriatic Sea in the last several decades, by using available eyewitness reports, documented literature, and atmospheric sounding and meteorological reanalysis data available on the web. The source of all documented Adriatic meteotsunamis was examined by assessing the underlying synoptic conditions. It is found that travelling atmospheric disturbances which generate the Adriatic meteotsunamis generally appear under atmospheric conditions documented also for the Balearic meteotsunamis (rissagas). These atmospheric disturbances are commonly generated by a flow over the mountain ridges (Apennines), and keep their energy through the wave-duct mechanism while propagating over a long distance below the unstable layer in the mid-troposphere. However, the Adriatic meteotsunamis may also be generated by a moving convective storm or gravity wave system coupled in the wave-CISK (Conditional Instability of the Second Kind) manner, not documented at other world meteotsunami hot spots. The travelling atmospheric disturbance is resonantly pumping the energy through the Proudman resonance over the wide Adriatic shelf, but other resonances (Greenspan, shelf) are also presumably influencing the strength of the meteotsunami waves, especially in the middle Adriatic, full of elongated islands and with a sloping bathymetry. The generated long ocean waves are hitting funnel-shaped bays or harbours of large amplification factors, resulting in meteotsunami waves with heights up to 6m at the very end of bays or harbours. Within models the mechanism is fairly well understood, but it is extremely difficult to reproduce these events (and presently almost impossible to forecast) as the meteotsunami generating process is highly variable at both temporal and spatial scales. The final part of the paper discusses the possibilities for further research of the Adriatic meteotsunamis, and meteotsunamis in general, including the basis of a meteotsunami warning system which should be able to capture potentially dangerous travelling atmospheric disturbances in real-time. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes an extraordinary tsunami-like event that occurred on 21 June 1978 that encompassed the middle and south Adriatic Sea. The flood had its culmination in Vela Luka, where a maximum wave height of 6m was reported. This paper contains a detailed description of the event as seen by eyewitnesses, its outreach along both the eastern and western coasts, and the aftermath and recovery activities in Vela Luka. All available records have been collected and analysed to detect the source and the generating mechanism of the long ocean waves. Seismic generation is fully excluded from the consideration, while a submarine landslide seems rather unrealistic as it does not explain the characteristics of the measured ocean waves. Therefore, the source of the event was presumably in the atmosphere, where a travelling disturbance was detected that had the capability to resonantly transfer energy to the ocean via the Proudman resonance mechanism. Although these data prove the proposed mechanism, the final confirmation for such a scenario should come from a process-oriented numerical modelling study. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper describes a finding of photoautotroph cyanobacteria Synechococcus in deep Adriatic waters during the spring of 2006. The maximum abundance in early May was positioned at 800 m, being of order of the values referred for the surface waters in the Adriatic Sea. The deep abundance maximum has been associated to the fast ventilation of deep Adriatic waters, usually occurring during wintertime strong cooling events. Two processes were detected: (1) deep convection in the South Adriatic Pit (SAP) and (2) density current going downslope. The first process was responsible for bringing the cyanobacteria down to 600-m depth in the area of convection, and the second one triggered the downslope transport of the cyanobacteria to the SAP very bottom. The depletion rate of Synechoccocus cyanobacteria in an extremely hostile environment has been computed to equal about 1 month. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes potential recruitment effect of endangered bivalve Pinna nobilis in a small marine protected area-Little Lake (Adriatic Sea). A box model has been applied for the estimation of residence time of the lake, forced by tides only at the open end of the lake system. The residence time of Little Lake was estimated to be 54 days. In our approach we assumed that P. nobilis larvae may be found in the surface waters only during the night, thus restricting their outgoing from the lake to about 7-8 hours per day in the June-August period, as the larvae need some time to reach surface waters. Therefore, the equivalent residence time of the larvae in Little Lake is estimated to be about 160-185 days. Knowing that the bivalve larva phase lasts between 3 and 5 weeks, one may estimate that only 11 to 22% of the larvae, respectively, leave Little Lake. From a conservation standpoint these low values imply a special level of protection within Mljet National Park In addition, future climatic changes will affect the recruitment of P. nobilis, not only due to sea level rise but also with temperature and other changes which may influence its reproduction phase and larvae transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper documents characteristics of the fundamental Adriatic seiche (period of 21.5h) by analysing hourly sea level data at Split and Rovinj in 1957–2002 interval. The seiche is extracted by digital filter from residual (detided) sea level series. Basic statistics, both on seasonal and interannual scale, as well as flood (threshold-exceeding) analysis has been performed in order to visualise the importance of the seiche. Although mean seiche variance is as small as 2–3%, seiche energy can be much larger than tidal energy during extreme events. The largest seiche amplitudes occur in February and March, being almost two times smaller in summer season. A decrease of seiche flood amplitudes in time has been documented, coinciding with a decrease in the storm surge height. This is presumably due to weakening of atmospheric activity during investigated period. However, a reversal in that trend may result in disastrous and exceptionally high floods in the future, due to coupling with the global sea level rise and its regional (Adriatic) manifestation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper overviews recent and past studies of preconditioning, generation and spreading of North Adriatic Dense Water (NAdDW), by analysing both transient episodes and climatological data. The importance of wind stress, heat and water fluxes, and particularly river discharges during the preconditioning and generative period is emphasized, as well as the advection of saline levantine intermediate water from the southeast. After the generation, NAdDW affects deep and bottom layers of the middle and south Adriatic Sea, flowing as a dense current and mixing with the adjacent waters; it can be traced even in the Otranto Strait, contributing to the formation of deep water in the Eastern Mediterranean. Objective shortcomings and the projections in NAdDW investigations are also discussed, due to their high importance in the circulation of the Adriatic Sea, which may relate other similar basins around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Strong air pressure and sea level oscillations, which occurred in the Middle Adriatic region during the storm passage on 21 August 2004, were recorded at a number of meteorological and tide gauge stations. Large sea levels measured were related to the Proudman and harbour resonances, being also observed during the past event on 27 June 2003. Both cases were characterized by a travelling air pressure disturbance, but a part of the oscillations in August 2004 case were a result of short-lasting strong winds which were absent during the event in June 2003. Occurrence of a strong 4-h fundamental oscillation of the whole region versus weak harbour seiches was a result of the shape of travelling air pressure disturbance: it looked like a box-function containing large energies in a low frequency domain, whereas the event in June 2003 was characterized by a cosine-like disturbance, redistributing the energy towards higher frequencies. Using a numerical model it is shown that the strength of 4-h oscillation is sensitive to the speed of travelling atmospheric disturbance and to its incoming direction. The largest amplitudes were modelled for a speed of 13 m/s, indicating that inner part of the region is possibly the best place for occurrence of the Proudman resonance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper documents the occurrence of long-period internal Kelvin waves in Split Channel in spring 2002. The analyses were performed on thermohaline and current data measured at three moorings and one hydrographic section. The internal oscillation had a period of 5–6 days, being larger just after the generation which was probably excited by the alongshore Sirocco wind. The recorded current amplitude was up to 0.3ms-1 in the surface layer, while the observed pycnocline displacement was 10–15m. The oscillation was reproduced by one-dimensional two-layered model of a channel, imposing nodal lines at its entrances. Cross-shore properties of the oscillation, such as observed offshore decrease in pycnocline amplitude, are explained by the dynamics of an internal Kelvin wave propagating along channel boundaries, because the internal Rossby radius is smaller than the width of the channel. Conclusively, the observed oscillation probably represents the fundamental mode of internal waves trapped in the channel complex off Split. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper describes thermohaline properties in the north and middle Adriatic Sea in 1999 based on temperature and salinity data collected along the Po-Rovinj, Jabuka Pit and Palagruǽa Sill profiles. The preconditioning, generation and spread of North Adriatic Dense Water (NAdDW), as well as their relationship to surface fluxes and river discharge are analyzed in detail. A strong Bora wind event in November 1998 resulted in heat loss exceeding 800W/m2, homogenizing and cooling the whole water column by 2.4°C, while another similar Bora episode in January/February with a cooling rate of 1.4°C ended with NAdDW generation. River discharge was low during the preconditioning and generation phases. Following its generation, the NAdDW flowed southeastward as a density current along the western Adriatic slope. Its northeastern part reached the steep edge of the Jabuka Pit and sank rapidly to the bottom, where it was observed a month after its generation. However, the core of the NAdDW current continued to follow the western slope as a density current, taking a detour around the pit on its southeastern side, and sinking to the bottom in the eastern segment of the pit. The detour and sinking at the Jabuka Pit slope was estimated with an analytical model to be 1.1m/km. Finally, the upper lighter part of the NAdDW current crossed the Palagruǽa Sill and followed the western slope entering the South Adriatic Pit and contributing to the water mass dynamics there. Another NAdDW branch was found at the very bottom of the middle of the Palagruǽa Sill, although being less pronounced than the one that moved over the western slope. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The study examines the occurrence of Proudman resonance in front of the Split harbour (Adriatic Sea). The dataset comprises air and sea pressure (sea level) data collected at the harbour entrance during August to October 2000 and is characterized by rather strong synoptic disturbances that took place over the harbour. The analyses encompass empirical tools, such as time-series analysis, high- and band-pass filtering, spectral and wavelet analyses, while the theoretical approach includes the conceptual model of the resonance. Resonance appears in front of the harbour and then propagates inward, covering periods between 7.7 and 28.5 min as a result of complex atmospheric gravity wave structure. Gain between sea level and air pressure equals 0.05–0.40 dbar/hPa (5–40 cm/hPa). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In situ thermohaline variables measured monthly or bimonthly in the shallow northern Adriatic at prescribed stations between 1979 and 2017 were correlated with the local (river runoff, precipitation, net heat flux) and remote atmospheric (various hemispheric and regional indices) and oceanic (the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System, BiOS) drivers acting on monthly to annual timescales. The highest correlation between the temperature and the local drivers was obtained in winter along the western part of the study area, while the rivers and precipitation mostly shaped the summer and December salinity values. The net heat fluxes and river discharges preceding the dense water formation (DWF) by 1–2 months and up to 3 months were found to be important for the February temperature and salinity variability, respectively. No significant correlations were found between the February thermohaline variables and the monthly BiOS index for the phase lags up to −11 months, while the correlation was the largest between the yearly averaged BiOS index and the yearly averaged salinity at phase lags of −2 to −4 years. The bottom yearly averaged salinity has also been highly correlated with the Mediterranean Oscillation index at phase lags of −1 and −3 years, while the yearly averaged surface temperature was influenced by the East Atlantic and East Atlantic/West Russia patterns. Acting independently on different timescales, both the local and remote processes were found to drive the thermohaline variability in the northern Adriatic, thus providing an option for a forecast of the DWF and the thermohaline circulation in the Adriatic-Ionian basin. • Thermohaline observations have been correlated with atmospheric and oceanic drivers. • Local drivers shape the thermohaline variability at monthly timescales. • Remote drivers were correlated with temperature and salinity at yearly timescale. • The BiOS is a key driver for the northern Adriatic decadal thermohaline variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Anomalous physical and microbial properties were detected in the middle Adriatic. • Local and remote drivers contributed to record-breaking salinities. • Picoplankton biomass and production sharply declined in high salinity conditions. • The documented conditions could be more frequent in the future climate. Oceanographic measurements carried out in the middle Adriatic during summer 2017 revealed anomalous conditions in both physical and microbial properties. High salinities were observed throughout the entire water column, with an 'inverse' salinity profile in August and a maximum in the surface layer, recorded for the first time in the middle Adriatic. Surface salinity of 39.02 recorded in August was 2.5 standard deviations above the long-term average (1961–2016). The observed salinity distributions are the result of both local and remote drivers, whereby the North Ionian cyclonic gyre controlled by the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System has been responsible for the overall above-average salinities since 2011. Yet, local factors present in 2017, such as strong evaporation caused by extremely high air temperatures, lack of precipitation and low river discharges, combined with a decrease in horizontal transport estimated from the Regional Ocean Modeling System simulations, contributed substantially to the observed surface salinity anomaly. The decrease in horizontal advection was conjoined with high values of repelling barriers in the fields of the finite-time Lyapunov exponent. Documented physical conditions were synchronized with considerably lower bacterial production and abundance of the most studied picoplankton groups in comparison to values during the last decade. The exception was the euryhaline organism Synechococcus , whose abundance was 88% higher than the average in the study area. Nutrient content and chlorophyll-a concentrations followed regular seasonal cycles during 2017, with typical low values pointing to salinity as a possible driver of the observed changes in the microbial food web. Following ongoing climate change and future projections, these documented anomalous physical and microbiological conditions may become more frequent in the Adriatic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northernmost part of the Mediterranean Sea, the northern Adriatic shelf, is a complex area where the intensity of dense water formation and the consequent Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation are shaped by a combination of extreme wintertime bora winds and substantial freshwater loads. To better understand the impact of global warming on extreme bora dynamics and the associated sea surface cooling, this study applies the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) kilometer-scale modelling suite to the far future climate (2060–2100) period. Under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse emission scenarios, the AdriSC simulations are carried out via the combination of a statistical approach—consisting of an ensemble of 3-day simulations for 22 extreme bora events, and a pseudo-global warning (PGW) methodology—imposing a climatological change to the forcing used to produce the evaluation (present climate) runs. Despite a noteworthy decrease in intensity of the bora winds (by up to 3 m/s), the latent heat losses are simulated to increase (by up to 150 W/m2) due to the reduction in relative humidity in the northern Adriatic (by up to 3%). Consequently, the sea surface cooling associated with severe bora events and preconditioning the dense shelf water formation in the northern Adriatic is projected to not significantly change compared to present climate. Although these results need to be further confirmed, this study thus provides a new view on the future of processes driven by sea surface cooling, such as the dense shelf water formation or the Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation, that were projected to decrease in the future climate by regional climate models an order of magnitude coarser than the AdriSC simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aims to estimate wintertime thermohaline properties and dense water formation (DWF) dynamics, rates, and transports in the northern and middle Adriatic between 2008 and 2015. The focus has also been directed to the year-to-year differences between two known DWF sites located on the northern Adriatic shelf and in the eastern coastal region. The estimates are based on a high-resolution interannual simulation by Regional Ocean Modelling System, one-way forced by the meteorological Aladin/HR operational mesoscale model, with new river climatology imposed particularly at the eastern Adriatic coast. Substantial interannual variability in wintertime bottom densities has been found, varying for more than 1.0 kg m−3 among years. Such variations are largely associated with the January-February heat losses, while atmospheric preconditioning in November-December seems to have a little effect on the DWF rates. By contrast, salinity is preconditioning the DWF in the eastern coastal site. That has been found relevant for DWF rates during extraordinary winters, as in the case of 2012. Contribution of a coastal site to the overall DWF rates in other years has not been substantial. Finally, a saw-tooth-like pattern in thermohaline time series has been found in observations and reproduced by the numerical model at the bottom of the middle Adriatic depressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to document salinity and temperature regimes in the middle and south Adriatic Sea by applying the Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method to the available long-term temperature and salinity series. The data were collected on a seasonal basis between 1963 and 2011 in two dense water collecting depressions, Jabuka Pit and Southern Adriatic Pit, and over the Palagruža Sill. Seasonality was removed prior to the analyses. Salinity regimes have been found to oscillate rapidly between low-salinity and high-salinity SOM solutions, ascribed to the advection of Western and Eastern Mediterranean waters, respectively. Transient salinity regimes normally lasted less than a season, while temperature transient regimes lasted longer. Salinity regimes prolonged their duration after the major basin-wide event, the Eastern Mediterranean Transient, in the early 1990s. A qualitative relationship between high-salinity regimes and dense water formation and dynamics has been documented. The SOM-based analyses have a large capacity for classifying the oscillating ocean regimes in a basin, which, in the case of the Adriatic Sea, beside climate forcing, is an important driver of biogeochemical changes that impacts trophic relations, appearance and abundance of alien organisms, and fisheries, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A pool of less saline surface waters was observed in late June 2006 at the northern edge of the South Adriatic Pit (SAP). Three possible sources were considered: (1) Albanian rivers, (2) local Croatian rivers, or (3) relatively fresh West Adriatic Current (WAC) waters. Available CTD and ADCP data, together with satellite images indicate that WAC waters are the most likely source. This requires an excursion of WAC water across the width of the Adriatic and is especially surprising as low winds and stable atmospheric conditions prevailed in mid/late June. However, quite strong NNW winds occurred during the first 12 days of June, with peak winds close to the western shore. These winds were the result of the translation of the Azorean high to the British Isles, producing strong pressure gradients over the Adriatic. The winds enhanced the WAC during early June 2006, preconditioning a cross-basin eddy circulation that appeared during the wind relaxation and calm conditions. As the unusually calm conditions persisted for more than two weeks, the WAC eddies and filaments grew freely and had enough time to reach middle east Adriatic waters. Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) simulations, using high-resolution Adriatic bathymetry and realistic atmospheric forcing show that such excursions are plausible and can occur when eddies and instabilities push WAC waters across the hyperbolic flow point separating the WAC and Eastern Adriatic Currents near the Palagruža Sill. During the latter half of June 2006, NCOM simulations show that the hyperbolic point was particularly well formed as an anticyclonic WAC, a cyclonic SAP rim flow, an anticyclonic cell southeast of Lastovo Island, and a cyclonic cell over the centre of the Palagruža Sill all bordered on each other. A simplified channel model suggests that the presence of the escarpment is a critical factor for producing cross-basin exchange of the coastal current following the relaxation of strong winds with a cyclonic wind-stress curl. However, the introduction of the Gargano Peninsula in the simulations was critical to the production of mesoscale eddies in the exchange flow, and such eddies qualitatively agree with the convoluted structures observed in satellite images. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this study the impact of the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS) on the interannual to decadal variability of the Adriatic Sea thermohaline circulation is quantified during the 1987–2017 period with the numerical results of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) historical kilometer-scale climate simulation. The time series associated with the first five Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) computed from the salinity, temperature and current speed monthly detrended anomalies at 1-km resolution are correlated to the BiOS signal. First, it is found that the AdriSC climate model is capable to reproduce the BiOS-driven phases derived from in-situ observations along a long-term monitoring transect in the middle Adriatic. Then, for the entire Adriatic basin, high correlations to the 2-year delayed BiOS signal are obtained for the salinity and current speed first two EOF time series at 100 m depth and the sea-bottom. Finally, the physical interpretation of the EOF spatial patterns reveals that Adriatic bottom temperatures are more influenced by the dense water circulation than the BiOS. These findings confirmed and generalized the known dynamics derived previously from observations, and the AdriSC climate model can thus be used to better understand the past and future BiOS-driven physical processes in the Adriatic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A meteotsunami detection algorithm, based on real-time measurements of air pressure, was developed and tested. The algorithm consists of two modules: the first module detects potentially dangerous air pressure disturbances with tendencies exceeding a certain threshold value; the second module determines the speed and direction of propagation of those disturbances. The algorithm was tested on artificial and measured air pressure time series from three Mediterranean meteotsunami hot-spots (the Balearic Islands, the northern Adriatic, the middle Adriatic). Functionality, rapidity and reliability of two methods for determination of the air pressure disturbance’s propagation speed and direction, the isochronal analysis method and the pressure tendency method, were tested. Both methods work acceptably well, and the detection algorithm is generally able to detect potentially dangerous air pressure disturbances and to determine their speed and direction of propagation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Large-amplitude seiches (up to 40 cm) were recorded at a tide-gauge inside Bakar. Bay from 19-21 August 2006. They were analysed using available tide-gauge and meteorological (air pressure and wind, vertical sounding,) data. Sea level and air pressure spectra showed simultaneous increases of energy in the periods in which the seiches of both Bakar Bay (about 20 mm) and Rijeka Bay (ca. 2 h) occurred. The propagation speed and direction as well as the horizontal span of the four pronounced pressure disturbances, favourable for coupling with Rijeka Bay waters via the Proudman resonance, were determined. It is argued that only short atmospheric pressure disturbances may generate significant barotropic sea waves in a small basin such as Rijeka Bay; once generated they are amplified when hitting Bakar Bay due to the harbour resonance. Furthermore, examination of the synoptic situation and upper-air soundings revealed the presence of dynamically unstable layer at a height of around 2000 m which was also the height of temperature inversion that developed as a consequence of an advection of warm African air from the south-east. During the afternoon hours of 19 August 2006 wind speed in this layer was close to the estimated speed of propagation of the air pressure disturbances which, together with dynamical instability, made conditions favourable for long distance propagation and trapping of atmospheric gravity waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This numerical work aims to better understand the behavior of extreme Adriatic Sea wave storms under projected climate change. In this spirit, 36 characteristic events—22 bora and 14 sirocco storms occurring between 1979 and 2019, were selected and ran in evaluation mode in order to estimate the skill of the kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) modelling suite used in this study and to provide baseline conditions for the climate change impact. The pseudo-global warming (PGW) methodology—which imposes an additional climatological change to the forcing used in the evaluation simulations, was implemented, for the very first time, for a coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere model and used to assess the behavior of the selected storms under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas projections. The findings of this experiment are that, on the one hand, the AdriSC model is found capable of reproducing both the Adriatic waves associated with the 36 storms and the northern Adriatic surges occurring during the sirocco events and, on the other hand, the significant wave heights and peak periods are likely to decrease during all future extreme events but most particularly during bora storms. The northern Adriatic storm surges are in consequence also likely to decrease during sirocco events. As it was previously demonstrated that the Adriatic extreme wind-wave events are likely to be less intense in a future warmer climate, this study also proved the validity of applying the PGW methodology to coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere models at the coastal and nearshore scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The paper presents the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) Meteotsunami Forecast system, which has been developed to operationally forecast meteotsunamis – atmospherically-generated destructive ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band, in the Adriatic Sea. The challenges posed by modelling meteotsunamis are first reviewed, then the AdriSC Meteotsunami Forecast system set-up is presented in detail and finally the atmosphere and ocean model results are evaluated against 48 air pressure sensors and 19 tide gauges for six different meteotsunami events. The statistical analysis of the high-frequency model results reveals that the AdriSC atmospheric and ocean models can reproduce meteotsunami events, even though their performances highly vary depending on the event and observation location. A qualitative analysis of the maps of extreme sea level and mean sea level pressure high-frequency model results shows that even a slight shift in location (of the order of 1 to 10 km) of the atmospheric disturbances, responsible for the meteotsunami generation, results in the incapability of the ocean models to reproduce the observed floods occurring during the meteotsunami events. This study presents the first available thorough evaluation of a deterministic meteotsunami forecast system. As such, it establishes that a carefully envisioned modelling system, even if imperfect, can be implemented to reproduce and forecast meteotsunami events. Highlights • A modelling suite for operational forecast of meteotsunamis was developed. • Prerequisites for meteotsunami modelling are at the edge of the model performances. • Meteotsunami events have been qualitatively reproduced in the Adriatic Sea. • The suite can be used for hazard assessment within a meteotsunami warning system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of meteotsunamis hit a few locations in the Mediterranean and Black Seas during 22-27 June 2014. Meteotsunamis were particularly numerous on 25 and 26 June in the Adriatic Sea, where at least six harbours and bays were stricken by powerful waves: strongest events occurred in Vela Luka (Korčula Island), a known meteotsunami hot-spot, where waves reached height of ~3 m, and in Rijeka dubrovačka Bay, where strong ~5 m/s currents accompanied ~2.5 m high waves. Intensification of high-frequency sea level activity was observed at both the eastern and western Adriatic tide gauge stations, with maximum recorded wave heights reaching ~68 cm (Ortona, Italy). A series of individual air pressure disturbances characterized by pronounced rates of air pressure change (up to 2.4 hPa/5 min), limited spatial extent (~50 km) and high temporal variability, propagated over the Adriatic on 2 days in question. Numerical hydrodynamic model SCHISM forced by measured and idealised air pressure disturbances was utilised to reproduce the observed Adriatic sea level response. Several important conclusions were reached: (1) meteotsunamis occurring at various parts of the coast were generated by different atmospheric air pressure disturbances; (2) topographic influence can be removed from sea level spectra by computing spectral signal-to-background ratios; the result, being related to the external forcing, resembles atmospheric pressure spectra; (3) sea response is strongly dependant on details of atmospheric forcing; and (4) over complex bathymetries, like the middle and south Adriatic ones, numerous effects, including Proudman resonance, edge waves, strong topographical enhancement and refractions on the islands placed on the pathway of atmospheric disturbances should be taken into account to fully understand meteotsunami generation and dynamics. An in-depth numerical study is planned to supplement the latter conclusion and to quantify contribution of each process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glycymeris bimaculata is one of the largest (up to ~ 115 mm) bivalves in the Mediterranean Sea, yet there is a paucity of information about the biology, ecology and growth of the species. Maximum longevity, growth and periodicity of internal shell growth line formation were assessed in individuals collected from Pag Bay in the Adriatic Sea. We validated annual periodicity of line formation using stable isotope analysis of shell calcium carbonate to construct standardized growth indices (SGIs) in live collected specimens obtained in 2008 and 2012 and developed a statistically robust master chronology from the growth increment series to explore shell growth responses to environmental indices. The estimated age of 55 shells (shell length 49.1 to 109.5 mm) ranged from 6 to 57 years and shell growth is described by the von Bertalanffy growth equation: L t = 90.85 − (e − 0.10(t + 3.13) ). The dark growth lines visible in acetate peel replicates of polished and etched shell cross-sections were deposited annually at the beginning of spring. Growth increment data for the period between 1991 and 2007, derived from 9 individuals (age between 17 and 34 years), were used in the construction of a master chronology. The SGIs had pronounced inter-annual variability with the period between 1997 and 1999 characterized by slower growth, the period between 2000 and 2005 by moderate growth, while the widest growth increments were deposited in 2006 and 2007. Differences in growth between these periods were related to differences in surface seawater temperatures and salinity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate predictions of air temperature in coastal regions represent a great challenge due to the complex interactions among the atmosphere, sea, and land. With approximately 1,200 islands, the Adriatic is a region with a strong land‐sea contrast, land‐atmosphere feedback, and intense air‐sea interaction. Because the Mediterranean has been regarded as a "hot spot" for climate change, regional climate models can be used to provide insight into a more realistic representation of small‐scale weather and climate structure and variability. This advantage is due to the better representation of complex topography, developed coastlines, and land‐sea contrasts, which are important for investigating air temperature trends. The use of regional climate models together with high‐resolution reanalyses and observations in assessments of climate variability and climate change is highly valuable for understanding climate processes at regional scales. The present study focused on air temperature and its trends calculated from measurements and simulated by eight regional climate models from the EURO‐CORDEX database; these data were represented by UERRA reanalyses and E‐OBS gridded data. In the evaluation period (1989–2008), the models' RMSEs were fairly small, in the range 0.5–1.5°C, compared to the historical period (1961–2005), with RMSEs greater than 1.75°C. However, the models showed small absolute trend differences (up to 0.12°C·decade−1 for the historical period). The ensemble means in both periods showed an accuracy improvement of 15–20% compared to the individual models. The models exhibited more success in terms of representing the main statistics and variability of the air temperature structure than in reproducing the temperature trends over 45 years, especially in the northern Adriatic, where there is complex coastal topography and significant seasonal variability in the wind regime. The reanalyses well represented temperature structure but showed less success in explaining the temperature trends than the results from the measured data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]