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Although the National Targets for Education and Training in England and Wales include indicators for lifelong learning, and the progress towards the targets set for these indicators has been lauded by politicians and other observers, much of this apparent progress is actually accounted for by changes in these same indicators. However, once the "conveyor belt effect" of passing increasingly qualified 16-18 year-olds into the working-age population instead of less-qualified 60 and 65 year-olds is taken into account, then progress in qualifying those of working-age is much less. In fact, there is then very limited evidence that lifelong learning targets have had any impact at all. Certainly work-based training has not increased and may even have declined over the last decade. Some socioeconomic inequalities in adult participation in education and training have worsened. The study concluded that a more carefully designed "average" target could allow all residents to be included in progress toward meeting the target and be more useful in measuring the actual progression of the population toward more educational qualifications. (Contains 52 references.) (Author/KC)

This paper considers the social and structural determinants of adult participation in education and training. Section 1 deals with 11 lifetime learning trajectories identified from a systematic stratified sample of 1,104 education and training histories collected from respondents aged 15-65 in industrial South Wales. For the purposes of the paper, they are analyzed at a higher level of abstraction, with only five categories: non-participant, delayed, transitional, lifetime, and immature. This section is a simple report of empirical findings relating to the similarities and differences between the trajectories in terms of the major variables. These findings form the basis of an outline hypothesis of the social and structural determinants of participation in lifelong learning, which section 2 makes explicit. Section 3 tests the hypothesis by attempting to predict which post-compulsory trajectory each respondent will follow, using only variables not used in the classification into trajectories. A conclusion finds the determinants of participation in adult education and training are not linearly progressive; the two-component model of determination suggests that immediate further and higher education histories are predictable from privileged family background, while later learning is more dependent on changing opportunities, motivation, and learner identity. Appendixes include classification of trajectories, data tables, and trajectory determinants. Contains 25 references. (YLB)

This working paper is a product of a regional study in industrial South Wales of the determinants of participation and non-participation in post-compulsory education and training, with special reference to processes of change in the patterns of these determinants over time and to variations between geographical areas. This paper describes the notion of learning trajectories and considers determinants of an individual's participation in education or training. It discusses a door-to-door survey of 1,104 householders in industrial South Wales to obtain their life work and educational histories that were analyzed to identify trajectories--characteristic patterns of participation and non-participation in post-compulsory education and training. These 5 categories with 11 trajectories are identified: disaffected learner (non-learner, near non-learner); delayed learner (delayed learner, deferred student, twilight learners); transitional learner (false-start trainee, false-start student); immature learner (still at school, still in full-time education); and lifetime learner (work-based learner, early learner). The analysis that led to determination of six predictor variables--area of residence, gender, type of school, attempting qualifications, qualification at age 16, and occupational class of father--is explained. Appendixes include development of learning trajectories. Contains 57 references. (YLB)

This working paper is a product of a regional study in industrial South Wales of the determinants of participation and non-participation in post-compulsory education and training, with special reference to processes of change in the patterns of these determinants over time and to variations between geographical areas. It examines the notion of a learning society in Britain, suggesting that markedly different interpretations of the term are in common use among politicians, economists, policymakers, and educationalists. The paper outlines chief arguments currently being used to advocate the establishment of a learning society in Britain. These arguments have two strands--the claim that the standard of education and training in a country has a direct impact on its economy and that, therefore, expenditure on learning by the state and employers will be recouped, and the claim that there is a lack of justice in the distribution of education and its rewards in Britain today. Since this involves a brief description of the availability of education and training in Britain, the paper allows a preliminary consideration of the extent to which a learning society already exists or can be said to have existed in the past. It concludes that to some extent the "learning society" is used as a term of convenience. Appendixes include definitions and acronyms. Contains 103 references. (YLB)

These two working papers are products of a regional study in industrial South Wales of the determinants of participation and non-participation in post-compulsory education and training, with special reference to processes of change in the patterns of these determinants over time and to variations between geographical areas. The study combines contextual analysis of secondary data about education and training providers with a regional study of several generations of families in South Wales via survey, semi-structured interviews, and taped oral histories. Paper 1, The Region of Study, describes the region and provides secondary data used both in the creation of the sample and as a background for the analysis of research findings. It discusses how these three sites that typified the focus area were selected: Blaenau Gwent in the heart of the depressed coalfield; Neath Port Talbot, a large urban center historically linked with heavy industry; and Brigend, a rapidly expanding town south of the coalfield which also shows recent impact of Japanese investment in the area. Paper 1 contains 48 references; background data of the sites; and maps. Paper 2, Outline Methodology of the Study, describes the survey, data collection, pilot study, coding, and these forms of analysis that were carried out: factor analysis, causation, temporal sequences, standard regression, logistic regression, and loglinear models. Paper 2 contains include 63 references. (YLB)