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Sandstorms and soil erosion are serious problems around the world, but particularly in arid northern China. In response to these problems, the Chinese government has implemented the world's largest shelter forest construction project: the Three North Shelter Forest Program (TNSFP). However, we do not know how successful the program has been, because no one has carried out a comprehensive cost–benefit analysis. To analyze the benefits of the different ecological restoration methods implemented under the TNSFP and provide guidance for future ecological restoration efforts, we developed an improved cost–benefit analysis method that considers as many of the benefits and costs (including opportunity costs) as possible, subject to data availability, thereby clarifying the net benefit after accounting for these costs. We found different net benefits for the restoration types implemented under the TNSFP. The lowest net benefit was for afforestation by planting, at − 6.8 × 103 RMB ha−1 year−1, which was negative due to its high costs; in contrast, the highest net benefit was for fruit tree plantations, at 53.3 × 103 RMB ha−1 year−1, and this resulted from its high product value. There were large differences among regions in China, which indicates that the regional governments should adjust the balance among the ecological restoration measures in their region to account for the unique local conditions and maximize the net benefits of ecological restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land degradation is a global problem that seriously threatens human society. However, in China and elsewhere, ecological restoration still largely relies on a traditional approach that focuses only on ecological factors and ignores socioeconomic factors. To improve the effectiveness of ecological restoration and maximize its economic and ecological benefits, a more efficient approach is needed that provides support for policy development and land management and thereby promotes environmental conservation. We devised a framework for assessing the value of ecosystem services that remain after subtracting costs, such as the opportunity costs, costs of forest protection, and costs for the people who are affected by the program; that is, the net value of ecosystem services (NVES). To understand the difference between the value of a resource and the net value of the ecosystem service it provides, we used data on VES, timber sales, and afforestation costs from China's massive national afforestation programs to calculate the net value of forest ecosystem services in China. Accounting for the abovementioned costs revealed an NVES of ¥6.1 × 1012 for forests in 2014, which was 35.9% less than the value calculated without accounting for costs. As a result, the NVES associated with afforestation was 55.9% less than the NVES of natural forests. In some regions, NVES was negative because of the huge costs of human‐made plantations, high evapotranspiration rates (thus, high water opportunity costs), and low forest survival rates. To maximize the ecological benefits of conservation, it is necessary to account for as many costs as possible so that management decisions can be based on NVES, thereby helping managers choose projects that maximize both economic and ecological benefits. Article impact statement: Accounting for the effects of costs on the value of ecosystem services provides a net value that more strongly supports policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land degradation is a global environmental problem that jeopardizes human safety and socioeconomic development. To alleviate severe soil erosion and desertification due to deforestation and overgrazing, China has implemented historically unprecedented large-scale afforestation. However, few studies have accounted for the resulting imbalance between water supply (primarily precipitation) and water consumption (evapotranspiration), which will affect ecosystem health and socioeconomic development. We compared the water balance results between restoration by means of afforestation and restoration using the potential natural vegetation to guide future ecological restoration planning and environmental policy development. Based on estimates of water consumption from seven evapotranspiration models, we discuss the consequences for water security using data obtained since 1952 under China's large-scale afforestation program. The models estimated that afforestation will increase water consumption by 559–2354 m 3 /ha annually compared with natural vegetation. Although afforestation is a potentially important approach for environmental restoration, China's current policy has not been tailored to local precipitation conditions, and will have therefore exacerbated water shortages and decrease the ability to achieve environmental policy goals. Our analysis shows how, both in China and around the world, future ecological restoration planning must account for the water balance to ensure effective and sustainable environmental restoration policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of ecosystem service values is a hot area of research in ecological conservation and economics. However, the costs of these outputs are largely unknown. In this paper, we estimated the opportunity cost of water allocated to afforestation projects through mathematical modeling based on statistical data for all of China to provide support for restoration planning based on a fuller consideration of the true costs. To guide future ecological conservation and environmental policy development, we illustrate a neglected concept (ecosystem service costs) and use this concept to compare the ecological services provided by ecological restoration based on afforestation with those of restoration based on the conservation of natural vegetation using data obtained since 1949 in China. The results showed that afforestation and natural vegetation create annual costs related to use of the available water resources equal to 4800 and 3700 RMB ha −1 , respectively, representing a water opportunity cost of 1100 RMB ha −1 for afforestation. This illustrates the rule that “there is no free lunch” for any service, including ecosystem services. Therefore, to support the development of more effective and sustainable environmental restoration policy, it will be necessary to evaluate the associated opportunity costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With rapid economic and population growth, water scarcities and conflicts over the available water are becoming worse, while climate change makes the potential risk to society unpredictable. To deal with growing water scarcity and improve the quality of water, China's government launched a large-scale afforestation program in the Tibetan Plateau—the birthplace of Asia's primary rivers, which lies upstream of 40% of the world's population, at a high altitude and with fragile ecosystems. However, this program could aggravate the conflict for water between humans and nature, because tree plantations consume 1.7 × 10 9 m 3 more water annually than the equivalent area of the region's natural vegetation. The shrinkage of glaciers caused by climate warming will exacerbate the water resource scarcity caused by these plantations and may soon become a primary source of conflict between regions that depend on river discharge from the plateau. To mitigate these problems, China's government should change its policy to conserve natural vegetation instead of planting more trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A country's natural and cultural heritage is created in a unique environment, and for this heritage to survive, it must be preserved in a similar environment. In China, 60 years of afforestation to combat desertification near the Mogao Grottoes and the Crescent Moon Spring have shown that attempts to protect the regional environment have not protected these heritage sites, and may actually have endangered them. Conserving the environment's original state may be the most effective solution for heritage conservation where sites have survived under a specific set of physical and environmental conditions for hundreds or thousands of years and may not be able to survive a new environment. Man-made changes should only be attempted with great care to avoid damaging the conditions that have preserved the natural or cultural heritage in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Afforestation is a primary tool for controlling desertification and soil erosion in China. Large-scale afforestation, however, has complex and poorly understood consequences for the structure and composition of future ecosystems. Here, we discuss the potential links between China''s historical large-scale afforestation practices and the program''s effects on environmental restoration in arid and semi-arid regions in northern China based on a review of data from published papers, and offer recommendations to overcome the shortcomings of current environmental policy. Although afforestation is potentially an important approach for environmental restoration, current Chinese policy has not been tailored to local environmental conditions, leading to the use of inappropriate species and an overemphasis on tree and shrub planting, thereby compromising the ability to achieve environmental policy goals. China''s huge investment to increase forest cover seems likely to exacerbate environmental degradation in environmentally fragile areas because it has ignored climate, pedological, hydrological, and landscape factors that would make a site unsuitable for afforestation. This has, in many cases, led to the deterioration of soil ecosystems and decreased vegetation cover, and has exacerbated water shortages. Large-scale and long-term research is urgently needed to provide information that supports a more effective and flexible environmental restoration policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Soil chemical and physical characteristics can significantly affect the growth and distribution of all types of vegetation, particularly in arid environments. Because of soil erosion, most of the topsoil has disappeared from China''s arid Loess Plateau, exposing parent material or soils with low nutrient content in many locations. However, little research has been done on the impact of these soil conditions on afforestation efforts. Conventional afforestation in the area is only thought to be possible on loess soils because the local foresters consider the two other main soil types (red clay and bedrock-derived soils) too barren to support trees. In an attempt to determine whether these soils could also support afforestation, we planted trees on all three soil types in a hilly area of the Loess Plateau near Yan’an City. The results indicate that large-scale afforestation in loess soils could potentially increase the severity of soil water shortages, degrade the natural environment, and increase the risks of desertification and of serious economic losses because of over-consumption of soil moisture. However, survival rates on red clay and bedrock-derived soils were generally comparable to those on loess for individual species, and were superior to those on loess in mixed-species plantations, with less of an adverse impact on soil water. Both red clay and bedrock-derived soils could thus potentially sustain afforestation in low-lying areas with adequate soil moisture. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Cost-benefit can reveal the real benefits of an ecosystem. • The net benefit provides stronger support for decision-making for ecological conservation. • The net benefit is more practical than the payment for ecosystem services. Land degradation, soil erosion by water, and desertification caused by deforestation are serious problems around the world. To counteract the effects of these problems, China's government implemented the world's largest and most comprehensive ecological restoration program: the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP). However, it's not yet known how well the program has succeeded because no one has performed a comprehensive cost–benefit analysis. To provide the missing information, we developed an improved cost–benefit analysis approach that accounts for as many benefits and costs (including opportunity costs) as possible given the current availability of data. Our analysis revealed a net benefit of 6.029×1012 RMB per year for the NFCP. The net benefit (after subtracting the costs) was highest for protection of natural vegetation to allow recovery, but was lowest for afforestation by planting. We found significant differences between regions of China, suggesting that governments of these regions should adjust the balance among their ecological restoration measures to account for unique local conditions and maximize the net benefit. In addition, governments should increase subsidies to the residents of program areas to compensate them for the costs imposed on them by the NFCP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale afforestation is a primary tool for combatting desertification and global warming. However, the consequences for future ecosystems are complex and poorly understood. To judge the payback from afforestation in arid regions, we assessed the effects of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program, which is the world's largest ecological restoration program, in predominantly semi-arid to arid regions in China. Our analysis revealed a net loss of 230.8 × 109 RMB annually for afforestation, suggesting that tree planting is a poor choice in much of northern China. However, establishment of fruit tree plantations and protecting vegetation to allow natural recovery produced large annual benefits (235.5 × 109 RMB and 447.43 × 109 RMB, respectively) due to having the highest product value and lowest restoration cost, respectively. Because the net benefits were negative for artificial afforestation, and some net benefits were negative for some restoration programs in some regions, it is essential to change the proportions of the different restoration methods both to improve the restoration success and ensure the survival of the residents in areas affected by the program. • Our more comprehensive form of cost–benefit analysis reveals net benefits. • We applied the method to China's Three North Shelter Forest Program. • Forest protection to allow natural recovery gave high net benefits due to low cost. • Fruit tree plantations provided high net benefits due to income from fruit sales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Grain for Green Program (GGP) that the Chinese government has implemented, the world's largest ecological restoration plan, has an important component based on payments for ecosystem services. However, the program's net benefits (which include compentation payments) remain unclear. To solve this problem, we proposed an improved cost–benefit analysis method that reveals the specific relationship between the benefits of each type of restoration and the multiple costs that must be incurred to generate those benefits. The results showed that the benefits and net benefits of GGP were 1749.2 × 109 RMB and 637.2 × 109 RMB, respectively in 2017. These were equivalent to total and net benefits that averaged 60.17 × 103 RMB·ha−1·yr−1 and 21.92 × 103 RMB·ha−1·yr−1, respectively, across the four methods. Afforestation of degraded land had the biggest total cost (509.1 × 109 RMB·yr−1), whereas establishing fruit tree plantations produced the highest net benefit (244.2 × 109 RMB·yr−1), but the best cost–benefit ratio was obtained by natural forest conservation (366.8%). To improve the net benefits of GGP while balancing the relationship between environmental protection and economic development, the GGP must be adapted so that managers plan program implementation based on net benefits; to do so, planners should choose the method for each site that maximizes the program's benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water scarcity is a global environmental problem that jeopardizes human safety and socioeconomic development. Since 1952, China has implemented a large-scale tree-planting program in the country's arid regions to combat desertification. However, there is a serious risk this program will exacerbate water shortages and lower the groundwater table: the trees selected for this program were not chosen based on local environmental constraints, and their evapotranspiration exceeds the regional precipitation. However, no data on the afforestation's effects on the groundwater table is available. This is problematic because any loss of groundwater will severely constrain socioeconomic development in China's arid and semiarid regions, which already face severe water shortages. The economic concept of a groundwater opportunity cost could be used to guide socioeconomic activities to improve the sustainability of groundwater use and mitigate the potential problems caused by the Chinese afforestation program. In this paper, seven evapotranspiration models were used to provide the first estimate of the opportunity cost created by afforestation's adverse effects on the groundwater resource. The results showed that the groundwater table declined yearly throughout the study area, with mean water opportunity costs in 2011 ranging from 0.04 × 10 9 RMB to 11.1 × 10 9 RMB under nine provinces in arid and semiarid China. This study provides the first solid evidence that afforestation in arid and semiarid northern China will exacerbate the groundwater decline while creating enormous opportunity costs. Thus, the afforestation program must be urgently reassessed and the water-use efficiency of vegetation must be considered when planning future ecological restoration both to make the restoration more cost-effective and to protect the ecosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological services were initially used to quantify the benefits used in valuation of environmental protection, as they helped stakeholders to understand the benefits that ecosystems bring to people. As a result, they increased support for ecological engineering, including ecosystem restoration. However, by failing to account for costs, and particularly for indirect costs such as the tradeoffs among ecosystem services under different land uses, the analyses were incomplete and often provided poor support for policy development and land management to promote environmental conservation. In this paper, we provide a framework for assessing the net value of the benefits provided by ecosystem services (i.e., the benefit that remains after subtracting key costs), taking the Beijing Plains afforestation project as an example. Furthermore, we analyzed the importance of scale effects and marginal changes in ecosystem services assessment, and highlighted the uncertainty of evaluation results caused by basing some of the analysis on market prices, which can change unpredictably. To better support conservation activities and maximize the ecological benefits obtained from an environmental strategy, it’s necessary to obtain accurate estimates of the net value of ecosystem services by accounting for an increasing range of direct and indirect costs, calculated at the same scale as the project implementation and accounting for marginal changes, thereby providing better support for policy development and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]